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[IbizaPocholo]

PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X Mid-Gen Refreshes Are Unlikely, Former Xbox Executive Says

According to former Xbox executive Albert Penello. mid-gen PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X are unlikely due to several reasons

wccftech.com

Penello explained why mid-gen PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series refreshes are unlikely to happen. The PlayStation 4 Pro and Xbox One X were more of a necessity due to 4K displays becoming rapidly more mainstream, as the base models were designed driving 1080p output. As 8K displays are unlikely to become more mainstream in 3 or so years, there may simply be no need for a mid-gen refresh this time around.

It may simply be less necessary as well. 4K was becoming a mainstream resolution for PC and TV's, and the the base consoles were designed around driving 1080p (or less) output. When you have a set that requires 4x the performance *just* to drive 4x the pixels, then you eat up all the performance just driving resolution. I think it's unlikely we'll see 8K TV's go mainstream in the same way we saw 4K go mainstream - we're more likely to see improvements in NITS (to drive better HDR) or better framerates to support greater than 60fps on TV's. CPU's and GPU's in the next-gen should easily support higher frame rates and wider colors.
So the mid-gen upgrades are not only less financially and technically viable, but also likely less necessary to keep up with display technologies.

In a following post, Albert Penello also highlighted how a 20, 24 teraflop machine is not going to be affordable in a console form factor even in 3 years, making a PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X mid-gen refresh even more unlikely.

I don't see a 20 / 24 tflop machine being affordable in a console form factor even in 3 years. The node change from 7nm to 5nm or 3 nm is going to be cost prohibitive and just mathematically unless they hit 3nm you're only going to see a 30% reduction in size but you're doubling the tflops so the chip has to grow.
Additionally, you can't really double the GPU without growing CPU and Memory or you run in to other bottlenecks which further adds cost.
There may be other silicon advancements I"m not privy to, but it's pretty widely known this is a real challenge right now. So looking through todays lens, I think it's unlikely you're going to see a mid-gen console this cycle.

 

[Lionel Richie]

"Please buy our launch units, it won't be outdated in 2 years guys LMAO"

 

[VincentMatts]

"Please buy our launch units, it won't be outdated in 2 years guys LMAO"

Hes not at MS anymore and i tend to agree with him. Last gen, the consoles were really underpowered at launch. This isnt the case this time. In fact they seemed to have doubled down on power this time.

Anything is possible, but id be very very surprised at a midgen refresh this time around.

 

[Skyr]

"Please buy our launch units, it won't be outdated in 2 years guys LMAO"

Aaaaaand we are done here.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Hes not at MS anymore and i tend to agree with him. Last gen, the consoles were really underpowered at launch. This isnt the case this time. In fact they seemed to have doubled down on power this time.

Anything is possible, but id be very very surprised at a midgen refresh this time around.

I don't think this is conditioned by power, especially considering there is no way this tech won't be outmatched in the PC realm not long after their launch (if not AT launch). It's a money thing. If MS and Sony considered the X and the Pro a worthy investment that netted some good return, you can bet your ass we're seeing it again this gen. If not, then we won't.

 

[NullZ3r0]

He is correct. The only reason there was a mid gen refresh last gen is that both MS and Sony got spooked by the "consoles/computers/everything is dead" hysteria circa 2013 and WAY undershot their system specs.

This time around, both companies went all out with their respective boxes. However, while we won't see a mid gen refresh, we will see a shorter gen of 4 to 5 years.

 

[Hobbygaming]

I'd be more than ok with that I'm only getting the launch consoles

 

[GHG]

Even if mid gen refreshes aren't necessary they will still do them because it enables them to keep their unit prices high throughout the generation with little to no additional R&D required.

They did well this gen so they will keep on doing them until consoles are no longer a thing.

 

[Entroyp]

I don’t believe you.

 

[VincentMatts]

I don't think this is conditioned by power, especially considering there is no way this tech won't be outmatched in the PC realm not long after their launch (if not AT launch). It's a money thing. If MS and Sony considered the X and the Pro a worthy investment that netted some good return, you can bet your ass we're seeing it again this gen. If not, then we won't.

the only way i see it happening, is if 8k picks up. Otherwise, i dont see it.

 

[Lionel Richie]

the only way i see it happening, is if 8k picks up. Otherwise, i dont see it.

"Play your favorite games at 4k AND 60 fps".

 

[Psykodad]

Makes sense.

Sony needed to release Pro to boost VR performance.
MS had to follow because the gap between Pro and XBO was even larger than it was with PS4.

This time, a mid-gen "refresh" isn't necessary.

 

[Endless Fluff]

Andrew House said that the Pro was a reaction to console gamers jumping ship to PC mid-gen. It had nothing to do with 4K TVs.

“I saw some data that really influenced me,” he said. “It suggested that there’s a dip mid-console lifecycle where the players who want the very best graphical experience will start to migrate to PC, because that’s obviously where it’s to be had. We wanted to keep those people within our eco-system by giving them the very best and very highest [performance quality]. So the net result of those thoughts was PlayStation 4 Pro – and, by and large, a graphical approach to game improvement.”

PlayStation boss on PS4 Pro: our approach isn't reactive this time around

Andrew House also discussed relevance of physical media in gaming, following launch of Sony’s Ultra 4k streaming service

www.theguardian.com

They will most likely do it again, especially when RT performance on PC keeps advancing faster and faster.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

"Please buy our launch units, it won't be outdated in 2 years guys LMAO"

He doesn't work for Sony or MS. He's been out of the game for 2 years now.

 

[Carna]

I just don't want another console at the moment

 

[Bolivar687]

I thought Phil very publicly said when teasing the Scorpio that they are moving to a more seamless model where buying an Xbox gets in you into an ecosystem, not locking you in to a generation of titles and peripherals. And the whole idea of "Series" is that there's going to be a selection of machines at different price points and performance tiers over the course of the generation.

I get what Penello is saying but you shouldn't be making predictions about form factors three years out.

 

[Lionel Richie]

He doesn't work for Sony or MS. He's been out of the game for 2 years now.

Still, if the X and Pro were a justified investment they wouldn't just drop that concept.

 

[GHG]

"Play your favorite games at 4k AND 60 fps".

There's also 120fps to chase if they really want to.

 

[cireza]

I am not fond of this, I'd rather they maximize one single hardware to the limit.

 

[Bboy AJ]

It wasn’t “necessary” last time, either. The general consumer population would not have cared either way. New hardware drives demand. What would the general public do if mid gen refreshes didn’t exist, go PC because they couldn’t play 4K Call of Duty or Madden? Nonsense.

If these companies see a financial opportunity for a refreshed console, they will create and release one. There’s no technical reason driven by the general public. They’re going nowhere. It’s a financial business decision.

 

[OZ9000]

I don't want a mid-gen refresh. Just focus on one console and call it a day.

 

[JLB]

Its really hard for some people to check the LinkediIN page of people before shitting on them Anyway.

 

[Dargor]

 

[sn0man]

I would much rather prefer a slim revision that focuses on size and heat output while maybe also reducing price mid gen. Let’s say PS5 is $500 launch. Something in 3–4 years that is $300 will bring a lot more folks into the ecosystem.

 

[ruvikx]

He is correct. The only reason there was a mid gen refresh last gen is that both MS and Sony got spooked by the "consoles/computers/everything is dead" hysteria circa 2013 and WAY undershot their system specs.

This time around, both companies went all out with their respective boxes. However, while we won't see a mid gen refresh, we will see a shorter gen of 4 to 5 years.

No. Both Microsoft & Sony wanted to push consumers towards the 4K TV market as fast as possible. That's the only reason "why" those midgen refreshes exist.

 

[ZywyPL]

I don't know, I can see Sony releasing a Pro model somewhere in the next 5 years to promote 8K and bump the demand for their TVs. And if that would happened MS would have not much choice but to follow. Because realistically, I don't think the devs will utilize all those 14 CPU threads anytime soon, I think the upcoming generation will be about as long as the PS360 one, looking at the specs it will be really hard to justify a new generation within next 7-8 years, so a mid-gen upgraded models could work just as good as they did previously.

 

[Birdo]

How much more powerful do you really need though?

Hardly anyone even has a 4K TV yet, nevermind 8K.

 

[truth411]

How much more powerful do you really need though?

Hardly anyone even has a 4K TV yet, nevermind 8K.

That's not true anymore.

 

[TheCrimsnFuckr]

I mean it makes sense honestly. This generation had the powerful refreshes because the X1 and PS4 were 1080p systems when 4k was just beginning to emerge. As 4k became really popular, the consoles accommodated. So unless 8k becomes a big thing during this console generation (which I doubt it will) then there will be no need for a mid-gen refresh from either a company viewpoint or a consumer viewpoint

 

[NickFire]

If we're being honest, didn't MS announce the mid-gen refresh before its main next gen system?

 

[Thugnificient]

How much more powerful do you really need though?

A lot more. A lot.

 

[Birdo]

That's not true anymore.

Maybe where you live.

 

[UniformDeliverance]

I agree with this take for Playstation, but the Xbox 'series' approach opens up new possibilities as we think of console generations. Like I don't think we will see another generation after this, just continued updates to each Xbox 'series' (I mean.. That's what a series is after all.. The name itself implies successive device releases)

Total speculation, but I could see Xbox releasing more frequent consoles or even new form factors.. Such as a streaming only stick and a Xbox branded PC or Surface.

Not hard to imagine Xbox releasing updates to each series to keep up with PC gaming performance with more regularity than we are accustomed to.

 

[Gamerguy84]

Panello gets a lot of things wrong. He either plays dumb or isnt as informed as I thought.

Whether or not there are mid gen refresh I dont know that would stop anyone from buying the PS5 or SX.

I wouldnt wait 3 years because of a mid gen refresh, miss 3 years of gaming, no way.

I can see the point if they dont have them though because these consoles are more advanced than the PS4 and X1 were at the time.

 

[-Arcadia-]

I can see that, I guess, but I like the idea of an optional box (as long as it STAYS optional) halfway through the generation, to keep up with technology.

In this case, it could help enable 4K at 120 FPS (a common TV feature by then) in more scenarios, or even early 8K adoption (as much as I’m skeptical towards it), or just let users dedicate the power to some lovely half-gen visual upgrades, like we saw in some games last time.

Of course, with Microsoft releasing two systems right off the bat, that might be a tough sell for one of the two. I can’t imagine going to developers with three, or maybe four, different consoles to develop for.

 

[Codes 208]

I’m calling bullshit. The main emphasis of ‘series x’ suggests that there will be multiple models (obviously the S is one of them), so down the line I half expect xbox series x2 or something similar. I think this gen will be when ms tries blurring “next gen systems”

 

[Kokoloko85]

There will be both upgraded in 4 years.
MS is releasing 3 different sku in since 2017.

There both gonna release a mid gen upgrade And Im good with that. The Pro and 1 X were not one off’s.....

 

[Dargor]

for

Spoiler: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

9.2TF

Do you really need to bring your war into every thread?

 

[Jack Videogames]

Slim versions are a certainty. Pro versions are unlikely.

 

[Quasicat]

I believe that there will not be a pro version of these systems, but I’m pretty sure that there will be slim models released. When it comes to PlayStation, are usually prefer their slim models over their launch units.

 

[SilentUser]

Though his reasoning makes tons of sense, in the end is the market that drives the launch of new products. So, if people want to buy a PS5 or a Xbox Series S refreshed, pretty sure Sony or Microsoft will make one.

Also, VR or a new type of media could hit mainstream hard.

 

[Rikkori]

Look at XSX. It's gonna launch with above AMD's current best GPU but likely by launch time we'll have an 80 CU RDNA2, so then it's gonna sit 1 position below desktop variants. Okay, so 2-3 years later when RDNA3 or whatever arrives, how many positions will it drop? If we look at the rate of progress chances are it's still not gonna drop more than 1. And all those better GPUs have mammoth dies, which are too expensive for console markets.

So, looking at it that way, how does a refresh really make sense?

With the Pro & X it made sense because the consoles were so weak out of the gate they were being beaten by toasters. Today on the other hand the situation is much more different.

I agree with Penello's assessment 100%.

 

[PresetError]

I don't think there will be console revisions this gen. Current gen consoles were born massively underpowered for available technology standards and by 2016 it was pretty obvious they were struggling to keep up with games. Next gen won't be the same case.

Also, correct me if i'm wrong but none of the console revisions sold particularly well, didn't they? If it was an experiment to check how willing were consumers to accept shorter gens, it failed.

 

[Caffeine]

That's because they are not on the menu yet.

 

[-Arcadia-]

Also, correct me if i'm wrong but none of the console revisions sold particularly well, didn't they? If it was an experiment to check how willing were consumers to accept shorter gens, it failed.

Would be interested if anyone has the stats or a breakdown on this.

 

[Kenpachii]

Its more likely than ever actually.

 

[Shin]

I don't think there will be console revisions this gen.

There will be but from a economical standpoint, the nodes will be there and no company is going to leave money on the table like that.
Whether it's a refresh as in specs (power, storage) bump that remains to be seen.

 

[Great Hair]

Again a PS5 pro with 5nm+ will not be enough imho.

+50% max. improvement thanks a die shrink, IPC, more vram and bigger SSD?

10 +50% = 15 Tulips
24GB vram
1.65TB SSD

Not enough for my taste as a mid-range upgrade.

 

[Bernkastel]

Samsung is going to mass produce 64 GB HBM3 RAM soon.

 

[NickFire]

Joking aside, I think its possible on Sony's end but there would need to be a purpose for it.

On MS end I don't see how its possible without blowing a hole in the bow and stern. They would need to top the Series X specs I think (unless they wanted to publicly trash the S as incapable of keeping up I suppose). But there has to be a point where increasing the specs are just wasted TF's if everything has to work on the S too.