Alrighty then. I was holding off on my thoughts about the Bethesda deal for a couple of reasons. Both to think about it more and also to let the initial, hysterical reactions on both sides subside somewhat. So here's what I think about it.
First, this is, obviously a huge deal. It's a big potential win for Microsoft and in a couple of different ways. First, it gives them the ability to put several well known franchises exclusively in their ecosystem, if they so choose. That will help them market their hardware and GamePass (which along with XCloud is exactly where their LONG TERM plans lie). Alternatively, they can all all or most of these future titles to continue as they are today, or maybe with timed exclusivity only and thus reap wide financial benefits from the sales of these games.
I think they are very likely to go this route, in an effort to recoup the most of that $7.5 billion that they can. However, LONG TERM if it plays out for them, I would expect that to change as GamePass becomes more financially viable for them, assuming it does.
So, this is a big splash for Microsoft and it's a great win for them with multiple possibilities. It is NOT the "game over" that some hysterical Microsoft fans would like to believe. Bethesda titles are not THAT dominant, certainly not right now. Their big titles are also hugely expensive to produce, generally plagued with bugs and problems (to be fair, due to their huge scope, mostly) and as such they HAVE to sell many many copies in order to be profitable and make more money. So that's a risk. There are other more mid range and even lower tiered titles which I think would be deemed "solid" in the market today, but certainly not as blockbusters. I mean the main franchises are the Elder Scrolls and arguably the Dishonored series as an up and comer. Starfield MAY be great...it's a huge risk though and we don't know enough. So there's definitely risk that Microsoft is picking up here.
Neither though is this deal the death of 'gaming as we know it' and the end of Sony. Not by a long shot. Sony has been building itself, especially over the past decade by coming out with completely new IP's or reboots that have been very successful. Even without a single Zenimax title, there is hardly a deficit of games to play. Sony also is riding the wave of this current generation, where Microsoft has a lot to prove again as a serious player after it mostly abandoned this current generation earlier on.
Even if MS continues to purchase more and more studios, Sony can continue to cultivate smaller studios and grow them or get established studios to produce high end games. Even if the MS subscription approach is going to eventually win and be it....we have a LONG way to go for that to happen. MS does not, in fact, have some endless wallet as some would like to believe and they are a public company. They can't go all out and break the bank just because they want to.
This all means that there is a lot that has to play out yet and probably more than a decade worth of time to fully develop, whichever way it goes.
So for Microsoft fans, this is great news...you'll likely have those games on GamePass and you'll almost certainly get first dibs on those new titles. For Sony fans, you may or may not get these new titles, but you'll still have plenty more 3rd party and exclusive games that you won't be able to play elsewhere. Whether the subscription model eventually works out will take MANY YEARS to develop. So probably around PS 7 or 8 time even.
It will be interesting to see what other moves Microsoft has in it's plan. Make no mistake this IS a planned strategy and Bethesda won't be the last to be procured by Microsoft. At the same time, MS is going to need to realize solid financial gains from all of this..they cannot afford to take huge losses for 5 more years until it all pans out. So how they handle this and other acquisitions, especially those that are very expensive, will have a huge influence on how successful their strategy is in the end.
So meanwhile, we all have sweet new consoles coming out in about a month now, and will be happy as HELL to be playing with them and enjoying the titles that will be available over this coming year. Everything else will take care of itself and we'll see how this industry continues to change and evolve.
And oh by the way for people who are afraid of Microsoft buying up developers (or Sony). Neither can hold a candle to the real titan in the industry, which could do whatever it wants and pick "a side" whenever it wants, with MASSIVE consequences: Ten Cent.