vaibhavpisal
Member
Also consider future potential. TES, Fallout series are on a rise. Investment will ensure bright future.
Star wars ... Hmm no idea what to do with it. It's has peaked already. Nothing you can do will beat the past.
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Is 7.5 billion too much and MS overpaid?
- Thread starter DavJay
- Start date
Also consider future potential. TES, Fallout series are on a rise. Investment will ensure bright future.
Star wars ... Hmm no idea what to do with it. It's has peaked already. Nothing you can do will beat the past.
Kagey K
Banned
It was either pay tax on 7.5B and get nothing, or spend it and acquire assets you can fold into the company.
People don’t understand how companies actually work, and sometimes it’s good to draw losses to offset your revenue.
Banjo64
cumsessed
The exact same is applicable to Minecraft. Microsoft only paid $2.5 billion for Mojang.
The truth is Microsoft see the value in owning Zenimax’s 8 studios and an IP portfolio that is one of the best in the industry.
LisaMariaMartin
Banned
Not offering their big hitters to PS5.
The only ones who think releasing non mmo games on ps5 is smart are Sony fanboys.
yazenov
Member
But outside of the US and UK, its difficult for Microsoft to sell their hardware, and if you can't sell hardware, you can't sell software.
One suggestion is to make their 1st party games exclusive in the US only, and make their software multiplatform in Europe and Asia. Thats one way to not lose on potential softwares sales of games which sold the most on Playstation last gen.
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The Pleasure
Member
I dunno. Bethesda is so glitchy the buyout might not go through and corrupt itself making it an unpurchaseable company.
CuNi
Member
It's the same with "charity" donations.
They can offset those spendings from tax anyway and get free PR with it. There is nothing philanthropic about this either but at least a win for charity too.
Krisprolls
Banned
We're no analysts or insiders, but yes, from the outside, it looks like 7.5 billion is too much.
Bethesda was a bit on the down slope. No Elder Scrolls is even planned this gen and if you look at games like the latest Fallout games, Bethesda kinda fell behind technically and a bit in ratings too on Fallout 76. They couldn't find another buyer close to this price if things go sour.
Now consider Insomniac cost only around $200 million (so like 35 times less) and actually released a huge acclaimed blockbuster in recent years. It looks like a much smarter buy.
The thing is it's like going all in for Xbox now. They either make that profitable or they'll have to give up entirely, because a lot of money was invested here.
Bethesda was a bit on the down slope. No Elder Scrolls is even planned this gen and if you look at games like the latest Fallout games, Bethesda kinda fell behind technically and a bit in ratings too on Fallout 76. They couldn't find another buyer close to this price if things go sour.
Now consider Insomniac cost only around $200 million (so like 35 times less) and actually released a huge acclaimed blockbuster in recent years. It looks like a much smarter buy.
The thing is it's like going all in for Xbox now. They either make that profitable or they'll have to give up entirely, because a lot of money was invested here.
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Shubh_C63
Member
Comparing it to SW deal is unfair given almost everybody agrees it was a huge steal. I mean seriously I still can't believe Disney threw some spare change at this monster of revenue-franchise.
Bethesda is also ok. That 7.5 is not going to be spent on talent upgrade and new studio opening and the huge risk involved with them. It's costly but safe, atleast how I see Gamepass working BEAUTIFULLY with Elder Scrolls 6 (Single player but not really) game. I am not a ES fan and I will buy it first quarter easy.
Bethesda is also ok. That 7.5 is not going to be spent on talent upgrade and new studio opening and the huge risk involved with them. It's costly but safe, atleast how I see Gamepass working BEAUTIFULLY with Elder Scrolls 6 (Single player but not really) game. I am not a ES fan and I will buy it first quarter easy.
phil_t98
#SonyToo
you dont invest 7.5 billion and give in. it means they are serious about what they are doing and building for the future
I suspect that's why thy've added the PC and Xcloud to platforms that allow to play their games.
The_Mike
I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
Is eso already that old? Damn.
LisaMariaMartin
Banned
Insomniac has no valuable assets. Bethesda has Elder Scrolls and Fallout both of which will get TV shows in the future. Insomniac has nothing. It's quite clear why one costs pennies and the other doesn't
Bungie has a rumored asking price of 2B. Why? Because they have Destiny. We simply have no idea if it's too much or not. Assets and IP are what makes a developer pricy, not the talent. Talent comes and goes, just look at Naughty Dog and SSM devs moving over to MS studios.
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Valued Gamer
Banned
MS also have PC as their platform, and Zenimax games are massive on PC.
They could well finish behind Sony in console sales yet make more money.
Valued Gamer
Banned
On top of the gaming IP, Zenimax has idtech engine and their Orion streaming tech that apparently is better than anything else at the moment.
Insomniac are talented and efficient devs for sure, and I think they were a good buy.
What would id be worth on its own?
There is all their IP in Doom, Quake, Rage and Wolfenstein, then there is idtech engine and the studio itself.
I would value id at well over Bungie, so if Bungie want 2 billion, id has to be worth 3 or 4 bill.
alabtrosMyster
Banned
Given how things are priced these days probably not.
The issue is that the only real big games they make take 6-7 years to be developed. So we're basically talking about 1 or max 2 games per generation.
Other stuff (the Arkane's, Tango's, Id's games) are definetly all made by talented people but the commercial success of the IPs to justify the 7.5b just isn't there.
But I think that Microsoft is basically going to turn those smaller studios into a GamePass episodic games factory while only the big team teams at Bethesda will be allowed to continue to develop their huge games business as usual.
Other stuff (the Arkane's, Tango's, Id's games) are definetly all made by talented people but the commercial success of the IPs to justify the 7.5b just isn't there.
But I think that Microsoft is basically going to turn those smaller studios into a GamePass episodic games factory while only the big team teams at Bethesda will be allowed to continue to develop their huge games business as usual.
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Self
Member
That's a legit point. PC and mobile (streaming) have to be considered.
MS has several plattforms to sell their IP's. If gamepass works Zenimax will work.
DaGwaphics
Member
I think the acquisition was meant to improve that situation directly. Software sells hardware, not the other way around.
Fitzchiv
Member
Fallout.
Prey.
Dishonored.
Doom.
Elder Scrolls.
Quake.
Wolfenstein.
And that's without the shit yet to come like Starfield, ongoing concerns like Elder Scrolls Online and Fallout 76, and the smaller IP's like Rage, Deathloop, Evil Within etc.
What do you reckon? Fallout 4 generated $750m in it's first 24hrs on sale, and thats not one of the better games they've released in the last 15 years.
It's good value, they'll milk it like fuck
Prey.
Dishonored.
Doom.
Elder Scrolls.
Quake.
Wolfenstein.
And that's without the shit yet to come like Starfield, ongoing concerns like Elder Scrolls Online and Fallout 76, and the smaller IP's like Rage, Deathloop, Evil Within etc.
What do you reckon? Fallout 4 generated $750m in it's first 24hrs on sale, and thats not one of the better games they've released in the last 15 years.
It's good value, they'll milk it like fuck
dcmk7
Banned
What I find extraordinary was by all accounts they were begging to be purchased, when you consider the franchises they own, for them to get in such a state must be a result of some derelict management.
Microsoft might have a big job on their hands to sort it out, but it's obviously a long term investment, so will be better days ahead.
Microsoft might have a big job on their hands to sort it out, but it's obviously a long term investment, so will be better days ahead.
Valued Gamer
Banned
I remember the rumours of Sony actually buying them about 6 months before MS really did.
Bittermich
Banned
Lmao if 7.5 is overpaid then what is 1.2 billion for a fucking trash developer like codemasters? What a joke.
7.5 is a STEAL. Paying 1.2 billion for CODEMASTERS is overpaid.
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Fart Knight
Al Pachinko, Konami President
DOOM, Fallout and TES are huge IP's.
Valued Gamer
Banned
How do you value an IP?
Do we have any info on how much say EA paid for Star Wars for instance?
MS bought Minecraft for 2.5 billion, and Mojang wasn't much more than the game IP. There wasn't any tech, a it was a small company.
Do we have any info on how much say EA paid for Star Wars for instance?
MS bought Minecraft for 2.5 billion, and Mojang wasn't much more than the game IP. There wasn't any tech, a it was a small company.
jhjfss
Member
They didnt pay 1.2b for just codemasters. The value is in all the licenses they hold. Now, EA is gonna fill it to the brim with MTX.
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abacab driver
Banned
If the number of gamepass subscribers were to stay at 15 million (that number is obviously increasing as we speak, I'm just being modest here), they make up the 7.5 billion in just 4 years. Realistically, about 3 years.
By then (2023), almost every 1st party exclusive game announced thus far (and unannounced ones from Coalition, Id, MachineGames, Compulsion, InXile, Arkane, Tango, Double Fine, etc) will be available on Gamepass, making it an undeniably attractive value for consumers (and will probably have around 30 million subscribers by then).
And that's when giants like Fallout and Elder Scrolls (as well as the next wave of games from every other studio) come out to play for the second half of this gen.
Microsoft's pockets are not to be watched, this generation.
They're spending big money because it makes sense to.
By then (2023), almost every 1st party exclusive game announced thus far (and unannounced ones from Coalition, Id, MachineGames, Compulsion, InXile, Arkane, Tango, Double Fine, etc) will be available on Gamepass, making it an undeniably attractive value for consumers (and will probably have around 30 million subscribers by then).
And that's when giants like Fallout and Elder Scrolls (as well as the next wave of games from every other studio) come out to play for the second half of this gen.
Microsoft's pockets are not to be watched, this generation.
They're spending big money because it makes sense to.
danielJackson
Banned
Brand, popularity, history of the brand, history of the popularity, mostly sell hardware. Software alone wont sell hardware.
Lets say that 10 million gamers bought super popular game 123, 3 million on xbox, 7 million on playstation. Now sequel 1234 comes only for xbox, does it sell 3m + then make 7 million playstation gamers buy xbox? no.
Because xbox is failed as global brand, unpopular, unwanted and is seen as "not cool option" in big parts of the world
So buying software and make it exclusive doesnt add up into 1:1 amount of PlayStation users getting xbox. Maybe at USA where xbox is their competitor, but not globally. I would guess that maybe 1/100 playstation gamers are willing to get xbox if they would not get bethesda games anymore. so maybe 1 million sold consoles. MS is so rich that they dont have to care, they can buy devs and spam money without losing in big scale.
Xbox have long road ahead to become anywhere near as popular as PlayStation.
Just look at this current gen launch, PS5 sold out everywhere for months and months to come, while it have been possible to walk into a store and buy xbox series s since the launch (on many eu countries at least), and even series x were available for weeks when preorders opened + some where available on launch on stores, even when rumours tell that they had less consoles to sell.
It is huge difference to sell out for +6 months vs being off the shelf product. Even switch cant compete with PlayStation on many areas, switch never sold out here, even on launch. Yet even ps4 have been sold out or hard to find around xmas every year.
If MS buys tons of devs and makes games exclusives, they just gain lot of haters whom just stop buying those games because they are pissed at their strategy.
Because it is obvious that if company rather "steals" games from gamers, rather than building new IPs = company is not likable.
Kind of like when movie makers replace old character with different ethnicity/gender to gain some stupid political correctness points, many people dont like it (at least outside of US) because it is obvious that makers & crybabies are too lazy to make new good characters so they must steal old ones and replace it to gain some agenda.
Same with games, remove old IPs from all gamers, trying to push people to their ecosystem = they will gain haters, not new users
LisaMariaMartin
Banned
What a load of garbage. You're proving once again that you have no clue what you're talking about.
MS went toe to toe with Sony during the 360 gen even though they got curbstomped a gen before that.
Why? Because they had compelling exclusives. Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears, Halo, Forza were all HUGE back then. Then they had COD and other marketing deals for huge games. Exclusives sell consoles. You think people will cry like you do instead of buying the games on a different platform?
playstation users are a blip compared to the PC+streaming market and MS knows this.
DaGwaphics
Member
@
danielJackson
Xbox had a long road to hoe going into the 360 gen also.
End point being that MS has lacked a large enough (and consistent enough) stable of first-party content through the entirety of the Xbox program. They are finally taking steps to improve that. While some users might be brainless brand loyalists, most are just following long standing trends which have lead them to Sony and Nintendo over the years. Software is how you rebuild the brand definition, release enough "cool" software and Xbox will be seen in a different light over time.
With that said, MS has different goals from Sony/Nintendo and doesn't have a singular focus on selling console hardware. They have no problem with selling GP subs on PC as well, that will alter console sales numbers regardless.
danielJackson
Xbox had a long road to hoe going into the 360 gen also. End point being that MS has lacked a large enough (and consistent enough) stable of first-party content through the entirety of the Xbox program. They are finally taking steps to improve that. While some users might be brainless brand loyalists, most are just following long standing trends which have lead them to Sony and Nintendo over the years. Software is how you rebuild the brand definition, release enough "cool" software and Xbox will be seen in a different light over time.
With that said, MS has different goals from Sony/Nintendo and doesn't have a singular focus on selling console hardware. They have no problem with selling GP subs on PC as well, that will alter console sales numbers regardless.
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Yselacrey00
Banned
It didn't. Well, it did get you excited but I really doubt anyone who wasn't planning on preordering one changed their minds after the announcement.
Bethesda is a big name with a downwards trend. It seems like they're gonna be forgotted in the next couple of years. They need to release a great triple AAA game without any sort of issues like missing features or game breaking bugs to recover some of the reputation they lost after Fallout.
Trogdor1123
Member
It's also not just about money, it's about denying others the ips
yurinka
Member
I think it will depend on their strategy to recoup the money. To make all of them full console exclusive and to put all of them in Gamepass wouldn't help, it would mean bankrupcy. I bet they will, or should, do something like this:
-The ones with potential to make a fuckton of money on PS and Nintendo (specially considering if it's way more money than the one they made on MS) should continue there even if it's a few months later than in Xbox.
-You have to get more revenue from the Game Pass users. Slice long AAA single player campaigns into a small one included in Gamepass and several paid DLCs. Increase the GaaS focus of the multiplayer adding seaons with free content and tons of IAP in a way it doesn't feel too intrusive.
-Milk the IPs with merchandising as much as you can: movies, tv shows, comics, books, art books, figurines, clothing lines, action figures, OST, theme parks... whatever that can be licensed to be produced outside with good quality and reports extra revenue.
-Invest on generating synergies between these studios, teaching each other the areas where they are the better than the other ones. And then help them to grow in order to create inside additional teams to help them produce better games and also more games at the same time per studio than they are doing right now. In order to reach a point you can release at least 2 or 3 big games of each top IP (Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Doom, Rage, Dishonored, Quake, Prey, Wolfenstein...) per generation in a addition to a new IP per generation from each one of these studios to see if it sticks (like Starfield, Ghostwire Tokyo, Deathloop...). The point of this would be to have like at least half a dozen great MS developed games (the whole company, not only with Zenimax) every year and at least a couple of clear GOTY contenders -even the winner- per year, more or less what Sony did these recent years.
-Make all the Game Pass users pay full the subscription, stopping adding new $1 deals for new accounts and stopping giving away 3 months of Gamepass for PC everywhere. Put instead free 15 days trial instead. You should focus into making Game Pass profitable instead of trying to use its number of (almost free) users as PR spin when desperately trying to find some good metric.
-The ones with potential to make a fuckton of money on PS and Nintendo (specially considering if it's way more money than the one they made on MS) should continue there even if it's a few months later than in Xbox.
-You have to get more revenue from the Game Pass users. Slice long AAA single player campaigns into a small one included in Gamepass and several paid DLCs. Increase the GaaS focus of the multiplayer adding seaons with free content and tons of IAP in a way it doesn't feel too intrusive.
-Milk the IPs with merchandising as much as you can: movies, tv shows, comics, books, art books, figurines, clothing lines, action figures, OST, theme parks... whatever that can be licensed to be produced outside with good quality and reports extra revenue.
-Invest on generating synergies between these studios, teaching each other the areas where they are the better than the other ones. And then help them to grow in order to create inside additional teams to help them produce better games and also more games at the same time per studio than they are doing right now. In order to reach a point you can release at least 2 or 3 big games of each top IP (Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Doom, Rage, Dishonored, Quake, Prey, Wolfenstein...) per generation in a addition to a new IP per generation from each one of these studios to see if it sticks (like Starfield, Ghostwire Tokyo, Deathloop...). The point of this would be to have like at least half a dozen great MS developed games (the whole company, not only with Zenimax) every year and at least a couple of clear GOTY contenders -even the winner- per year, more or less what Sony did these recent years.
-Make all the Game Pass users pay full the subscription, stopping adding new $1 deals for new accounts and stopping giving away 3 months of Gamepass for PC everywhere. Put instead free 15 days trial instead. You should focus into making Game Pass profitable instead of trying to use its number of (almost free) users as PR spin when desperately trying to find some good metric.
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Lol the reason zenimax sold is because it was not making money as a multiplatform publisher. You propose Microsoft continue that failed business but make the games timed so killing sales on the Playstation side until steep discounts. Timed exclusives don't sell on the second platform they are old games by the time they come out. So sell copies at 20-30 dollars and get no more games pass subscribers lol. This deal only makes sense to go all in once pre-existing contracts are up exclusive to Microsoft platforms force people to jump in to play the games. Like every other platform holder ever lol. I'm sure spider man is coming to Xbox to maximize profits lol. Or mandalorian is coming to Netflix to maximize profits lol.
LittleBusters
Banned
Why do you care, except to rub XBox fans' noses in it?