LittleBusters
Banned
I think realistically Game Pass can go up to 30 million subscribers by 2025.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Is 7.5 billion too much and MS overpaid?
- Thread starter DavJay
- Start date
I think realistically Game Pass can go up to 30 million subscribers by 2025.
ScarletSpider
Banned
I don’t see how this question could possibly be answered now, let alone September.
yurinka
Member
They can't be full Xbox console exclusive with their top selling games because they (Minecraft, Zenimax, Double Fine...) make way more money on PlayStation because it has more than the double of the market share than Xbox. Specially if they charge full price in PS and in Gamepass they are basically giving away an AAA game and generating huge loses when they could have profit selling the game at full price.
MS have been moving away their gaming focus from Xbox, first to PC and now to mobile and other consoles because Xbox didn't sell enough units to keep their past strategy of keeping the game as full exclusives on Xbox. Their main focus now is Gamepass, but with their current strategy it generates dozens if not hundreds of millions loses with every AAA they put there at launch day. It isn't sustainable even as a long term investment. At some point they must stop losing money with Gamepass and to turn it into a profitable strategy trying to get revenue from where they can. And the most profitable strategy in console if your company isn't Nintendo it's selling games on PlayStation. Something Minecraft, Zenimax and Double Fine already did and very likely will continue doing at least until they get the $7.5B back, specially with the top selling IPs.
Last edited:
S0ULZB0URNE
Member
Yes they overpaid especially with the way they do business ie the games still come to PlayStation.
RPSleon
Member
Financial statements. All available on the nasdaq website. K-10 files sent to the sec are all there for anyone to read.
DaGwaphics
Member
@
yurinka
DLC and MiroX are an unfortunate part of the market that isn't going anywhere, however it would be very foolish for MS to double down in that area, more so than these games would have done to begin with. Long single player campaigns might be broken into episodic chapters, to spread over multiple months, but I don't see them turning into strings of DLC (at least not more than what they would have already). Most big games get one or two larger DLC packs, I would expect that to continue.
yurinka
DLC and MiroX are an unfortunate part of the market that isn't going anywhere, however it would be very foolish for MS to double down in that area, more so than these games would have done to begin with. Long single player campaigns might be broken into episodic chapters, to spread over multiple months, but I don't see them turning into strings of DLC (at least not more than what they would have already). Most big games get one or two larger DLC packs, I would expect that to continue.
phil_t98
#SonyToo
and if you dont put them upon there they buy your console and make more money
LittleBusters
Banned
MS can't control the situation with Zenimax until the deal officially closes in a few months. Until then, those studios are free to announce new games that come to Playstation and there is nada Microsoft can do about it.
The larger issue is, should MS had paid $7 billion knowing this, or is it a long-term play?
S0ULZB0URNE
Member
No they shouldn't of paid 7.5 billion because of this.
LisaMariaMartin
Banned
A deal like this has preliminary contracts in place which is why Starfield hasn't been announced yet. Have you seen a playstation announcement for Indiana Jones?
Why in the world would they bite the hand that feeds them? Zenimax founders are selling. They couldn't give two shits if something releases on PS5 or not.
pasterpl
Member
they are doing quite well with their current strategy
Six Xbox Published Games Were Top Sellers On Steam In 2020
As measured by gross revenue
www.purexbox.com
phil_t98
#SonyToo
It’s like people don’t realise how business works. Zenimax would not screw the deal over, they will have clauses in the contracts about announcing new games and stuff going forward while the deal is in place. If they break those clauses there will be financial penalty’s to it
the Indy game could be one of the last announced games that could appear on PS4/5 made by the company or it could go exclusive.
LittleBusters
Banned
What should they have done with the money? Found 5 more studios to get some games in 6 years of questionable quality?
Cleared_Hot
Member
come to think of it... Lucas could have gotten WAY more for Star Wars...
yeah but he wanted it to go somewhere where they would treat the license well and with respect...oops!
EDMIX
Member
I think its really really hard to tell tbh. I think overtime MS will make that money back when you look at Fallout becoming a show, the Indiana Jones stuff, of course Elder Scrolls, I think MS is looking at the long game and if they can't make a Fallout or Elder Scrolls in house, it makes sense to buy them up.
Rumor that Elder Scrolls is becoming a show too has to only help.
Look at it from MS perspective. They are getting their asses beat by Sony and Nintendo, they don't have even near the number of huge big IP that moved millions like Sony and Nintendo and making those IP from scratch may not give them Horizon Zero Dawn or Spiderman numbers. What if MS saw that and saw Fallout and Elder Scrolls where getting shows, Starfield being a new IP and they were in talks with Disney for the Indiana Jones license, that might have been enough for MS to bite the bullet and see this as a worthy loss.
I think its a good buy and MS really needed to do something as last generation was not a good look for them. So MS has the money, this is a smart investment.
Rumor that Elder Scrolls is becoming a show too has to only help.
Look at it from MS perspective. They are getting their asses beat by Sony and Nintendo, they don't have even near the number of huge big IP that moved millions like Sony and Nintendo and making those IP from scratch may not give them Horizon Zero Dawn or Spiderman numbers. What if MS saw that and saw Fallout and Elder Scrolls where getting shows, Starfield being a new IP and they were in talks with Disney for the Indiana Jones license, that might have been enough for MS to bite the bullet and see this as a worthy loss.
I think its a good buy and MS really needed to do something as last generation was not a good look for them. So MS has the money, this is a smart investment.
LarknThe4th
Member
Nah they have effectively doubled their first party slate overnight with the purchase and can add a ton of games to game pass as well
Actually what gamepass needs to succeed is to become available on nintendo and Sony machines. Deep down MS know it and it must hurt so bad lol. So if they cannot hit critical mass on xbox or pc this will be the next move for the guys who don't care about selling consoles anymore...they're pushing this narrative to soften the blow in the future. It's just business.
EDMIX
Member
This.
To be like Netflix, you must still seek to BE LIKE NETFLIX. They are everywhere.
Just cause Apple makes that Apple TV box and Amazon makes Firestick, doesn't mean Netflix is not there as an option. I think MS can knock it out of the park as a 3rd party publisher as they have the infrastructure, they have the content, its simply a matter of time. This makes more sense then anything MS has ever done in the past.
Last edited:
Bittermich
Banned
lol. No. The PC+Mobile market is way better than all consoles sold combined.
Nintendo doesn’t even make sense, since people only play Nintendo games there.
And the difference between Xbox and ps is not that big. They won’t get many more players by including ps players. They could easily just convince ps players to join the Xbox ecosystem. This would also destroy Sony in the long run.
Having Xbox+PC+mobile is easily more than enough for gamepass.
Please stop with this stupid Xbox is doomed crap and MS is killing Xbox crap. Ridiculous.
Kagey K
Banned
They have a hard time figuring out how Game pass works and the monetization of it.
They figure all 15 million users are paying 1.00 to get on Gamepass and don’t understand the sheer amount MS is pulling in to finance games every single month.
EDMIX
Member
???
Nintendo and Sony's install base is still going to make them more money though. I'm not seeing how less would net them more.
huh? What the fuck are you talking about? I'm saying this is a GOOD THING MS IS DOING THIS.
Where on earth am I saying this is bad or "doom" etc? Stop looking to fucking argue for the sake of it. You telling me even when someone fucking says this is a smart move, that is bad?
Thought I heard it all.
It seems some can't be pleased regardless of what you say, you fucking made up a bunch of shit. Stop fucking trying to argue just cause MS is going 3rd party.
Added to the ignore list.
Kagey K
Banned
Nobody cares who you add to your ignore list, but arguing against yourself to say MS is going 3rd party is pretty fucking pitiful.
LisaMariaMartin
Banned
His scenario is pretty stupid considering Sony and Nintendo could pull the plug and say "changed our minds, we don't want it anymore" once MS loses their foothold in the console business. Which is going to happen if they put their games on other platforms.
Gamepass can't exist without Xbox.
phil_t98
#SonyToo
how can it be a small part? them will make serious cash if they get it right, they are in the console market for the longhaul
pasterpl
Member
same logic would mean that Sony should release some of their games on switch and Xbox, it would make them more money, Nintendo should release some of their games on PlayStation and Xbox, some would sell well...why Sony and Nintendo don’t like money? /s
bethesda games sold best on pc historically and all of their games under ms umbrella will still release on pc, in addition, via xCloud will be available on mobiles, smart TVs etc. Potential user base much bigger than playstation and Nintendo console owners combined
also this conversation is kind of pointless, doesn’t every playstation owner also have a powerful gaming pc? (Most on this forum have to, they all say that they will play all ms exclusives on pc) /s
slight off topic ; wouldn’t it be funny if both deathloop and ghost wire are very well received and both end with massive cliffhangers?
SoloKingRobert
Banned
I always thought the Wolfenstien, Doom, Fallout, Prey IPs should belong to Xbox platform.
Slings and Arrows
Banned
They didn't overpay, there's more to a purchase than a few games.
Microsoft are hoovering up some well known, beloved franchises and can position themselves back to where they had a lot of success - as the 'Shooter box'. Add to that the engines, design philosophy and experience of the teams they've picked up, which will help bolster their own, and it's clear that this is a 360 degree acquisition and not a linear one.
The ROI is a tricky one though. Unless MS have written this money off (doubtful) I would still bet that we see some titles on PS5. I know people want to put their hands in their ears or do a spidermannoyou.jpg and throw around accusations of fanboyism, but financial gain trumps internet cool points all day, every day.
Expect at the very least, to have Fallout and ES come to PS5, even if those games are timed exclusive for the Xbox.
Microsoft are hoovering up some well known, beloved franchises and can position themselves back to where they had a lot of success - as the 'Shooter box'. Add to that the engines, design philosophy and experience of the teams they've picked up, which will help bolster their own, and it's clear that this is a 360 degree acquisition and not a linear one.
The ROI is a tricky one though. Unless MS have written this money off (doubtful) I would still bet that we see some titles on PS5. I know people want to put their hands in their ears or do a spidermannoyou.jpg and throw around accusations of fanboyism, but financial gain trumps internet cool points all day, every day.
Expect at the very least, to have Fallout and ES come to PS5, even if those games are timed exclusive for the Xbox.
GaviotaGrande
Banned
Let's lay off the low effort console wars bait.
Sony fans in 2021 still think that you need a piece o plastic toy box in order to find audience to sell games to. How one can be so detached from reality is beyond me.they are doing quite well with their current strategy
Six Xbox Published Games Were Top Sellers On Steam In 2020
As measured by gross revenue
Slings and Arrows
Banned
Sony fans = everyone you don't agree with?Sony fans in 2021 still think that you need a piece o plastic toy box in order to find audience to sell games to. How one can be so detached from reality is beyond me.
Piece of plastic toy box = Ignoring the fact the PC is a plastic box
Detached from reality? Yes you are.
GaviotaGrande
Banned
The butt hurt is completely unnecessary.
Highway Star
Member
The bugs got squashed in the deal.
Slings and Arrows
Banned
and why would I be butt hurt? I'm not a console warrior unlike some, evidenced by using the term 'butt hurt' which is used by kids.The butt hurt is completely unnecessary.
Maxwell Jacob Friedman
leads to fear. Fear leads to xbox.
If you consider their latest portfolio of games the past few years have been weaker than last gen, I would say yes. If this was last gen and they paid that much it would make more sense.
DaGwaphics
Member
This. The game industry isn't like TV streaming, where anyone and their brother can make a basic streaming box and having all the important apps is a must for success. You have exactly two other platforms, both of whom would quickly spin up competing services if that was how the money was flowing. Their services would be tightly integrated into the OS and as you mention would probably result in the MS offering being removed anyway. Plus the 30% revenue cut would be problematic.
Last edited:
Hezekiah
Banned
Fallout is on the rise - after the last car crash release? A lot of work will need to be done to mend relationships with gamers, that franchises' reputation is in the gutter.
I can't see them making their money back any time in the next decade - Xbox continues to remain the least popular platform, and many of these franchises are associated with PC anyway. Overall though sales will be down, they will need a vast increase in the number GamePass subscribers, and in the price they're paying to see a return.
LisaMariaMartin
Banned
This depends entirely on their willingness to take a hit and gamble. Putting them on PS5 is the safe option and guarantees one time income of 70% per game. It also severely undervalues their own platform.
Putting everything on Xbox only could backfire but it could also lead to a massive increase in consoles sold + gamepass subscriptions. I'm not going to pretend I have enough knowledge about it but I think the big games (Elder Scrolls, Fallout) will all be exclusive to Xbox and PC.
They are most popular on PC anyways which is the biggest platform. Question is, is that enough for them? I think it is. Especially with Streaming + Xbox + PC.
Hezekiah
Banned
Wait, you're not being serious here are you?
Firstly you have the number of people paying $1 a month (some of whom are on long-term deals).
Then you have the associated development and marketing costs of the Zenimax games, plus the all the other studios.
Then you have the costs of paying third-parties to put their games on the GamePass platform, and the cost of paying them for every download.
Then you have the maintenance/infrastructure costs, and the general costs of marketing the platform itself.
The level of naivety regarding actual industry profits is staggering. There's a reason Microsoft won't disclose the financials on GamePass, even that clown Greenberg admitted it's not making them money. It's a money sink, and this acquisition just increase the pressure on them to significantly increase both the subscriber base and the monthly prices, because no matter what some fanboys might think shareholders always insist on a return on investment. And $7.5bn is a massive investment.
DarkMage619
$MSFT
Do you think those investors are looking at MS as company or Xbox specifically? If MS as a corporation is doing well one division that is still being built up will not ring alarm bells especially if that division is only a fraction of the entire company.
Your point makes way more sense for Sony where if the PlayStation brand dies Sony dies. MS will be fine with or without the Xbox and my investment in MS has left this stockholder very happy. I'm glad MS made this investment it shows their commitment to the Xbox platform.
GaviotaGrande
Banned
Trust me, I don't care about PlayStation and Xbox equally. (In terms of a device that is used only to play games, not in terms of a brand).
It's moderators who think that calling out fanatics of a specific console makes you a "console warrior". It's funny because fans of Xbox console are treated like complete trash in multiple threads here and I don't see warnings or any interventions from "moderators team" side. It's almost like there's some kind of double standard.
Oh, well it is what it is. If I'm banned at least I will spend less time online, which is always a good thing. And instead of chippin' in for Gold I can maybe donate to some animal shelter.
I should probably use word "fanatics". I think it describes these people better. I can a be a fan of PlayStation brand in a healthy way. Hell, PlayStation 2 is my favorite console ever and just look at that background in my avatar. Shocking!
Mine is metal and glass but I guess some are made of plastic. The difference is that PC can be used for million things, including serious work. I wouldn't call it a toy.
At least I realize that a dedicated piece of hardware to play games is less and less relevant and soon will be completely irrelevant.
DaGwaphics
Member
It's normal to sink money on things like this for years out of the gate. Hence, why part of the CEOs compensation package is based on GP subscriber growth (not profitability of the service). I'm sure the goal is to reach a subscriber number that is roughly equivalent to a healthy console generation, 40 or 50m at minimum. I would guess that they will spend what they need to in the interim.