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Wii U Speculation Thread The Third: Casting Dreams in The Castle of Miyamoto

lednerg

Member
Just wanted to get back to Li Mu Bai's B3D post* about Nintendo using some proprietary fixed function units in addition to the standard shaders. Mind you, I might be getting the terminology wrong, as I'm not a GPU guru or anything (I only deal with software rendering). Anyway, I do at least like to pretend I can understand the logic of going this route.

When Rogue Squadron came out, lots of us were mystified as to how Factor 5 could get so much graphical fidelity out of the purple lunchbox. The title had effects like self-shadowing and bump mapping applied to just about everything, yet the Gamecube managed not to ignite. The explanation we got back then was that Factor 5 was performing some sort of assembly code magic, creating something out of nothing. Yeah, well... not really. The Gamecube had those effects built-in, it's just that Factor 5 were competent enough to read the effing manual, as it were.

If Gamecube had Xbox-style programmable shader units in place of these built-in effects, it would have been able to achieve the same results. While that's true, they would have run much much slower. The big trade-off for the flexibility of a do-anything programmable shader is efficiency. Seeing as how comparatively slow the Flipper ran, this was a big deal. The important thing was finding the most useful, common effects to build into the silicon in lieu of the more flexible but slower alternative.

Li Mu Bai's post talks about lighting as being the most likely focus of these units in the Wii U. If that's true, then it would be kind of a major thing to overlook when porting your game to the Wii U. As lighting is a huge part of what a GPU is calculating, you would be making it jump through hoops it doesn't actually need to, slowing down everything else in the process.

That brings us to the past few weeks, and the 'leaks' from disgruntled anonymous developers about the Wii U. They're complaining about how it doesn't have enough shaders, so its graphics aren't powerful [sic]. You can see why some of us are more than a little skeptical about comments like that. If it doesn't have enough shaders, then it has something else in their place. Try using it.

* - the link he posted after the four quoted paragraphs should point here instead.
 

AzaK

Member
Who's buying a 300EUR console for multiplatform games when there are much cheaper alternatives available for 200EUR?

People who want a more powerful console that what we have now. People who want Nintendo games as well. People who are excited by the possibilities of the Subscreen. So, I'd say roughly 30-50 million people at a guess :)
 
http://i.imgur.com/qXaJB.jpg[IMG]

[/QUOTE]

[I]This is the reason screenshots are almost always bullshot. Because still frames captured directly, even from the best looking games, don't look good. A raw screenshot is an invitation to pick at all the little problems with the visuals that you won't even notice while playing. (Not to say these are direct captures of the game. But if they're captures from a video of the game, the point stands.)[/I]
 

HylianTom

Banned
People who want a more powerful console that what we have now. People who want Nintendo games as well. People who are excited by the possibilities of the Subscreen. So, I'd say roughly 30-50 million people at a guess :)

I was thinking about this the other day. In a worst case scenario, we probably won't see GameCube-level sales. But I seriously doubt we'll see Wii-level sales again. Your estimated range seems spot-on.. unless Nintendo does something really crazy-smart and/or its competitors do something crazy-smart or crazy-stupid.
 

DarkChild

Banned
That image is butt-ass ugly. Unacceptable.

And dude's a troll. Talks shit outside of here, and then comes in here trying to act innocent? Gimme a break. He's giving me great input on what I can and cannot get away with around here.
Mate, can you take a joke? It was a joke, really, nothing else. Anyway, here are screens with "color".

nk0xd.jpg

0VpaX.jpg



This is the reason screenshots are almost always bullshot. Because still frames captured directly, even from the best looking games, don't look good. A raw screenshot is an invitation to pick at all the little problems with the visuals that you won't even notice while playing. (Not to say these are direct captures of the game. But if they're captures from a video of the game, the point stands.)
They are.
 
Yes! It's been a long, long time.. but I could definitely go for that. Good boss fights! Man oh man..!

Hah, I barely remember the action part of the game! I liked it for the the worldbuilding.

Work fine for them last time. With the $500+ ipad....$600 doesnt seem that much.

I will happy to paid $600 for each to have a super powerful console that will last 7-8 years. Rather then pay $400 for a simple upgrade.

I think $500 for one version and $600 for another would sell fine.

This would give the wiiu some room at $300-$400.

I would like to point out that it took Microsoft six full years to start making an overall profit on the Xbox 360*. Do you really think they want to post another nearly full-gen loss? Do you think their investors would be comfortable with that?

Sony is still massively in the hole for this generation. Heck, at one point, their losses from this generation were greater than
the profits from the entire lifetime of the market-annihilating Playstation 2**. They may still be at that point, but they're nowhere near profitable with the PS3. On top of this, they're facing a pretty grim future on the portable side in terms of losses. They can't afford to throw money around like it's on fire.

Thing is, they could go for massively expensive machines. They could even do it without taking incredible losses. It just seems like it'd be wise to focus more on making a unique, compelling product rather than try to win by charging the highest amount of money. In fact, one might even call that sound economics.


* from 2005Q4 to 2011Q3, game and devices division, not counting additional losses from initial system R&D but also counting losses and profits from other devices such as the Zune, so YMMV. Source: ( google docs | OpenDocument Format )

** too lazy to source that, but somebody has a pretty chart they might trot out.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Wow, I didn't know Wii was an HD console that was closer in power to its competition! THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING.

Not the same situation, not the same result, dude. Nice try though.
I think his point was that making games for the Wii was much cheaper than making games for the PS3 and Xbox 360, but that didnt mean that the 3rd party developers were flocking to the Wii. Just because it is cheaper to develope somewhere else doesnt mean that everyone will do it.



Old prices put it a like $60k per title or something like that. I also read about the Scaleform, Humanik (which Nintendo is also giving away for free), etc. costing like $15k each.

But most of the prices are usually not posted openly, and in some cases there are other fees and royalties involved too.

The move from Nintendo seems to be more targeted to get smaller developers onto Wii U; more than anything. Guess is why some like Shin'en announced support around same time.
Do you mean $60k for each title using Havok? That sounds too high to me when smaller games like Magic Orbz for PSN uses Havok. But those prices around $15k for those other things sounds right i think. These prices wont make much of a difference for games with huge budgets, but it is definitely nice for smaller developers indeed =)
 

Terrell

Member
I think his point was that making games for the Wii was much cheaper than making games for the PS3 and Xbox 360, but that didnt mean that the 3rd party developers were flocking to the Wii. Just because it is cheaper to develope somewhere else doesnt mean that everyone will do it.

I wasn't even talking about cheaper development. Developers see $500-600 consoles, they think "oh god, not the PS3 again" and inch towards the edge of the MS/Sony ship so they can jump off. And there's only one place to go if they do.
 

magash

Member
I think his point was that making games for the Wii was much cheaper than making games for the PS3 and Xbox 360, but that didnt mean that the 3rd party developers were flocking to the Wii. Just because it is cheaper to develope somewhere else doesnt mean that everyone will do it.




Do you mean $60k for each title using Havok? That sounds too high to me when smaller games like Magic Orbz for PSN uses Havok. But those prices around $15k for those other things sounds right i think. These prices will definitely be nice for smaller developers, but it wont make much of a difference for the big budget games.

There is an Indie developer subsidized licence when using Havok
 
- not surprised on the power issue. Stil sticking by my "decent half-step between generations" prediction.

If they weren't happy, they'd say something at PAX.


- Nov 18th. Still believe it.

It seems like the safest default, given that three of Nintendo's last four systems came out the Sunday before Black Friday, and the most recent time, they didn't, and things went horribly wrong until we pretty much started approaching Black Friday.


- haptics? hnnnnng... I'd LOVE. I'd sacrifice a 360 from the duct tape to make it happen.

As always, I attest that this is the one thing
save for a surprise launch window release of a TimeSplitters 4 that isn't made in the "modern" CoD style and has well fleshed out local multiplayer and MapMaker
that would get me to buy a Wii U even at insanely high price levels.

I will believe it until Black Friday, and maybe even a little further on, even after Reggie himself says "No, we decided that electrostatic feedback was too expensive to implement on a controller, now put that pikmin costume on and dance for me!".
 

HylianTom

Banned
Hah, I barely remember the action part of the game! I liked it for the the worldbuilding.

If I remember anything well, it's the music. It's been over 15 years since I've played, but I remember enjoying the soundtrack.

I would like to point out that it took Microsoft six full years to start making an overall profit on the Xbox 360*. Do you really think they want to post another nearly full-gen loss? Do you think their investors would be comfortable with that?

Sony is still massively in the hole for this generation. Heck, at one point, their losses from this generation were greater than
the profits from the entire lifetime of the market-annihilating Playstation 2**. They may still be at that point, but they're nowhere near profitable with the PS3. On top of this, they're facing a pretty grim future on the portable side in terms of losses. They can't afford to throw money around like it's on fire.

Thing is, they could go for massively expensive machines. They could even do it without taking incredible losses. It just seems like it'd be wise to focus more on making a unique, compelling product rather than try to win by charging the highest amount of money. In fact, one might even call that sound economics.

* from 2005Q4 to 2011Q3, game and devices division, not counting additional losses from initial system R&D but also counting losses and profits from other devices such as the Zune, so YMMV. Source: ( google docs | OpenDocument Format )

** too lazy to source that, but somebody has a pretty chart they might trot out.

I'll upgrade my earlier comment: I triple-dog dare Sony to try to keep-up with Microsoft.
double_dog_dare_xmas_story.gif

The reward is great, but the consequences of failure are pretty harsh. If they go with more modest specs, they can take comfort in knowing that Nintendo's specs will be closer-by, making the prospects for muti-platform releases a bit more realistic.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I wasn't even talking about cheaper development. Developers see $500-600 consoles, they think "oh god, not the PS3 again" and inch towards the edge of the MS/Sony ship so they can jump off. And there's only one place to go if they do.
You did mention $400 in your previous post though, and if the WiiU is around $300 - $350, the difference is minimal. And this is also a similar situation in this gen when the Wii was $250, much cheaper than the PS3 and Xbox 360 at the time. But i understand what you mean.



Then it makes sense why Havok is used in that game. That is cool of Havok to do :) But then i think that the prices for these things are around what i thought they would be :)
 

fernoca

Member
Do you mean $60k for each title using Havok? That sounds too high to me when smaller games like Magic Orbz for PSN uses Havok. But those prices around $15k for those other things sounds right i think. These prices wont make much of a difference for games with huge budgets, but it is definitely nice for smaller developers indeed =)
Yep, seems to vary too. Another number I've seen is like $100k, but there are other alternatives and options.They also offer free/more basic alternatives (as long as you comply with the use of their license, fees and logos).

For example:
Havok's PC XS distribution does permit free commercial use in PC games intended for retail sale at a price of $10 or less. Commercial titles at higher price points do require the additional steps of filing a separate no-charge PC Game distribution license with Havok.​
And around 2010 they also launched a program that allowed developers with small budgets to license their tools, for less.
 

Penguin

Member
Anyone posted this yet? Behold some more Wii U rumours!

http://www.nintendoenthusiast.com/whispers-of-the-wii-u-around-the-industry/

TL:DR version:

Nintendo still like the name Wii U, but there may be a trademark issue. Regardless, Wii will be part of the name.
Nintendo are unhappy about the "weaker than X360" rumours. It's far from the truth.
Top tier devs are keeping their mouths shut despite these negative rumours.
No release date yet.
Nintendo have discussed haptics, but nothing concrete.

I don't know.. these just seem like rumors to appease the masses after the week.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Yep, seems to vary too. Another number I've seen is like $100k, but there are other alternatives and options.They also offer free/more basic alternatives (as long as you comply with the use of their license, fees and logos).

For example:
Havok's PC XS distribution does permit free commercial use in PC games intended for retail sale at a price of $10 or less. Commercial titles at higher price points do require the additional steps of filing a separate no-charge PC Game distribution license with Havok.​
And around 2010 they also launched a program that allowed developers with small budgets to license their tools, for less.
That is cool :) Makes sense why smaller titles uses Havok. I wonder if the free use applies to other systems as well. Most recent example i can think of is Motorstorm RC for PS3/Vita, a game that is $5.99 i think (under $10 at least) and it uses Havok.
 

Thraktor

Member
That is cool :) Makes sense why smaller titles uses Havok. I wonder if the free use applies to other systems as well. Most recent example i can think of is Motorstorm RC for PS3/Vita, a game that is $5.99 i think (under $10 at least) and it uses Havok.

The free use is only for PCs. I think they began it shortly after being bought by Intel, which makes sense, as Intel would want a lot of PC games out there making good use of the CPU.
 
I don't know.. these just seem like rumors to appease the masses after the week.

Whereas to me the only part of that rings as embellishing is the "Nintendo unhappy about the weaker than X360 rumor" part, because Nintendo generally doesn't care what the competition is doing performance wise even when their consoles actually are powerhouses (like they were prior to Wii).

The rest of that sounds completely believable to me; I'm almost certain Wii will be in the title of the sequel, devs wouldn't be talking because Nintendo Ninjas usually silence them, the release date is still very likely to be determined, and haptics is almost guaranteed to be something Nintendo dabbled with even if it does not end up in the final controller.
 

BY2K

Membero Americo
Anyone posted this yet? Behold some more Wii U rumours!

http://www.nintendoenthusiast.com/whispers-of-the-wii-u-around-the-industry/

TL:DR version:

Nintendo still like the name Wii U, but there may be a trademark issue. Regardless, Wii will be part of the name.
Nintendo are unhappy about the "weaker than X360" rumours. It's far from the truth.
Top tier devs are keeping their mouths shut despite these negative rumours.
No release date yet.
Nintendo have discussed haptics, but nothing concrete.

Wasn't it this guy that used GAF as a source without telling?
 

disco

Member
For launch I expect Pikmin 3 or some other 'core' franchise and a 'casual' franchise that's cheap but exciting and highlights the controllers potential; hopefully we'll see a repeat of something as hysterical as when the Wii was on Oprah. In Japan we may even see Dragon Quest X port out day one which will be great for the Japanese hardcore.

For the 3DS I expect NSMB3 this Christmas. Residual sales of Animal Crossing and Luigi's Mansion 2 will carry the platform off to heaven this year. May see Paper Mario and Tomodachi Collection as well. Dragon Quest Monsters should sell well this summer. Pokemon B&W 2 will sell well but not as well as B&W. Overall - this year looks extremely big for Nintendo if they can really pull off all of these titles. Tbh, everything I've mentioned has a pretty high likelihood of both big sales and being within 2012.

Maybe I'm just a Nintendo fan and thus blind to other platform software but really, outside of the big multiplatform holiday titles for the PS3 and 360 (AssCreed/Halo/COD/RE5) - is there really much competition in the market place against Nintendo this year?
 

Bagu

Member
Whereas to me the only part of that rings as embellishing is the "Nintendo unhappy about the weaker than X360 rumor" part, because Nintendo generally doesn't care what the competition is doing performance wise even when their consoles actually are powerhouses (like they were prior to Wii).

If it was just the first article, I'm sure Nintendo really wouldn't give a fuck. Problem is the rumor kept getting repeated, than other ones popped out of nowhere and then those were repeated. If it keeps getting repeated like this, people are going to believe it's true, like whathisface that tried to pass it off as a joke.
 

isny

napkin dispenser
Wow, I didn't know Wii was an HD console that was closer in power to its competition! THIS CHANGES EVERYTHING.

Not the same situation, not the same result, dude. Nice try though.



The problem here is that game consoles are in your hands and used for far less than a $500 iPad. Value is often determined by legit use. To a major enthusiast gamer, they know they'll play it incessantly, so $500-600 for a console isn't that expensive, especially based on what it offers.

However, the problem lies that that level of enthusiasm for gaming doesn't exist for the vast majority of console purchasers. We can look at PS3 sales in the first 2-3 years to pretty well confirm this. Microsoft inherited a lot of sales from Sony by virtue of being the ONLY HD game console that wasn't priced out of reach, and the way the generation played out pretty much confirms this to be the case.

This time, Nintendo is coming in with an HD console that can go all the way to 1080p, putting it in the same league as their competitors (albeit on the bottom rung of the ladder power-wise), and no matter how much extra whizz-bang the newer consoles from MS and Sony pack in, it's going to be a matter of Nintendo offering JUST enough to be valued appropriately for the vast amount of consumers, which MS and Sony simply can't offer by comparison.

Price isn't really what is a big factor, it's valuation. And while they seem like similar topics, they have major distinctions that are rarely discussed here.

Won't Nintendo also having 1-2 years of a jump start before a new Sony or Microsoft product releases also give them a huge advantage? They didn't have this advantage with the Wii, but what they did have was a cheaper mass market product.

I would think the WiiU will follow in the footsteps of the 3DS, where Nintendo will have time to launch the product, see how it does, and adjust the price accordingly before Microsoft or Sony have a chance to release any new console.
 

Nilaul

Member
Won't Nintendo also having 1-2 years of a jump start before a new Sony or Microsoft product releases also give them a huge advantage? They didn't have this advantage with the Wii, but what they did have was a cheaper mass market product.

I would think the WiiU will follow in the footsteps of the 3DS, where Nintendo will have time to launch the product, see how it does, and adjust the price accordingly before Microsoft or Sony have a chance to release any new console.

ze cheaper mass product was selling 500 a peace on ebay.

Edit: Thats kind of irrelevant to your argument. Since the consumers were so desperate to get there hands on the Wii. :p
 
Won't Nintendo also having 1-2 years of a jump start before a new Sony or Microsoft product releases also give them a huge advantage? They didn't have this advantage with the Wii, but what they did have was a cheaper mass market product.

There is a first-mover (or, more accurately, "early-mover") advantage that often kicks into play, but it doesn't always work. It certainly helped the Genesis, Playstation, Playstation 2 and Xbox 360, but it didn't exactly do wonders for the TurboGrafx-16, Saturn, or Dreamcast.
 
Has this been posted?

http://nintendoeverything.com/86035/lucasarts-wii-u-mmo-listed-on-e3-2012-floor-plan/

LucasArts Wii U MMO listed on E3 2012 floor plan

You can currently view a tentative floor plan of E3 2012 on MapYourShow. It’s unclear how much if this final, but I assume that most exhibitors/products listed on the site will be at the big expo in June.

Interestingly, there’s an entry on MapYourShow for a LucasArts MMO on Wii U. Could this be a sign of what the company has in store for the platform? Or is it just an error?
 

antonz

Member
Nintendo for the year headstart to matter more than just who sold the most consoles needs buyers to invest heavily in the systems 3rd party titles.

If COD,MOH,AC3 etc etc etc all do subpar on the Wii U it means 3rd paries will start giving less of a crap and the headstart will mean nothing.
 

lednerg

Member
Couldn't you have programmable shader with fixed ones?

Yeah, that's what he's saying. It has both. To get the most out of the system, you should use the fixed function units whenever applicable. Same goes for the DSP; if you don't use it for your audio and use the CPU instead, don't get all bent out of shape with Nintendo when your game is running slower than you'd like.
 

antonz

Member
Would explain why TOR looks straight out of 2005.

Smart MMOs are designed around long term visual survival. Stupid MMOs go the Korean route and are super outdated looking in a year.

That said I havent heard any teasing from people I know at Lucasarts regarding TOR on Wii U
 

fernoca

Member
Do people post stuff without checking the thread? <.<
People reply to threads, without checking threads. :p

Heck, not even logic. "Would explain why TOR looks straight out of 2005."
Of course, a game that was released on 2011 on PC, and was started around 2006 ...looks how it looks because of a rumored Wii U port in 2012. Wii U explains everything.

:p
 

Instro

Member
With regards to the lucas arts thing, wasn't there a linkedin profile posted a while back showing that they were working on a WiiU game? Perhaps I'm just imagining things.
 

antonz

Member
With regards to the lucas arts thing, wasn't there a linkedin profile posted a while back showing that they were working on a WiiU game? Perhaps I'm just imagining things.

Lucasarts is said to be very busy something like 3+ multiplatform titles. MMO wise though havent heard anything. Wii U certainly would be very MMO friendly in ways the other consoles couldnt be
 
for the kind of visuals AC3 had in the first trailer I don't think the game is getting enough backlash with these screenshots still the WiiU holding PS360 back is classic
 

BY2K

Membero Americo
I can't find the original message...

EDIT: Ah, there it is.

30 feet away and the fucking grass gets cut out. Fucking LOD. I wonder how did R* achieve such dense grass that goes far beyond this. Its probably just Wii U holding it back...

I mean, c'mon.
 
for the kind of visuals AC3 had in the first trailer I don't think the game is getting enough backlash with these screenshots still the WiiU holding PS360 back is classic

Umm, all games look like crap when capped of off shitty vids. ALL.

And the OP E3 counter (main use of this thread for me LOL) is under 60 days! 59+ days and counting.

And isn't MS PC always the day before? So you could knock another day off...unless you're actually counting to the Nintendo conference...
 
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