Pokemon and Dragon Quest are big problems
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Media Create Sales: Week 20, 2012 (May 14 - May 20)
- Thread starter Mpl90
- Start date
Pokemon and Dragon Quest are big problems
We're gonna predict for everything at once so it's easier, but I'm certainly making a separate ranking for B2W2 at least.
Guessing we don't have any shipment estimates for DD or Mario Tennis?
Gianni Merryman
Member
So essentially Mario tennis bombed whereas Dragon's dogma did not, am I right?
Out of precision, on which day of the week did they launch?
Do you reckon there is still the possibility for Mario tennis to catch up later on?
an opening of 30% for just the first day is quiet normal for a "casual sport" title as Mario Tennis. Certainly it's not a frontloaded title.
On the contrary DD should be a very frontloaded game; I think that 70% should be really good for that game.
We don't have reliable sources about shipments, so we'll have to wait for MC data next week, I think
Nintendo sports game always look overshipped but they tend to have pretty long legs and end up selling pretty damn well (see Mario Sports Mix). It's pretty likely that, unless DD is a major hit, Mario Tennis will end up outselling it in the long run.
Exterminieren
Banned
Set up nicely for some Mario Legs.
electroplankton
Banned
So, how're shipment numbers?
test_account
XP-39C²
That flying pig wasnt directed to the recent discussion. Anihawk made a joke earlier, and that joke is a Simpsons quote, where Homer loses a BBQ pig. The pig gets stuck in a dam, then water pressure builds up, and the pig starts flying. Then Homer says "it's just a little airborne. it's still good, it's still good!", so i wanted to post the .gif from this Simpsons episode
frankie_baby
Member
If day 1 sell through is 30% on Mario tennis that's bloody impressive for a Mario sports game is it not?
Sammy Samusu
Member
Capcom said 500k for Dragon's Dogma.
electroplankton
Banned
Was it Capcom, or some rumor from retailers?
I think it was not Capcom, neither a Japanese source.
frankie_baby
Member
I don't think it was a confirmed number
electroplankton
Banned
Yeah, because 300-350k units on the first day seem a bit higher to me. I expected more something 170-180k first day / 240-250k first week.
Sammy Samusu
Member
http://www.capcom-unity.com/gregaman/blog/2012/05/18/lots_of_love_for_dragons_dogma_in_japan
Capcom, but "reportedly" is key.
frankie_baby
Member
http://www.capcom-unity.com/gregaman/blog/2012/05/18/lots_of_love_for_dragons_dogma_in_japan
Capcom, but "reportedly" is key.
So its just a capcpom branch that have no real reason to know reporting on dodgy figures
DQM 3D should join the biggest opening for 3DS so far when it is released.
***
would be super impressed and admittedly wrong if DD opens above 300K for the week.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
For comparison here's every 3DS game that opened higher than Mingol 6:
Monster Hunter Tri G - 521,959
Mario Kart 7 - 423,619
Super Mario 3D Land - 343,492
Fire Emblem Awakening - 242,600
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance - 213,579
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 164,110
Resident Evil Revelations - 146,599
Inazuma Eleven Go - 135,259
Kid Icarus Uprising - 132,526
Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask - 119,951
New Love Plus - 104,969
SD Gundam G Generation 3D - 90,873
Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai - 86,676
Pokémon Rumble Blast - 86,294
Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin - 81,131
One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP - 80,488
Tales of the Abyss - 74,173
Theatrythm Final Fantasy - 67,206
Nintendogs + Cats - 64,213
Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D - 58,792
Senran Kagura - 52,606
And on the low end, what still opened higher than Gravity Rush:
Samurai Warriors Chronicles - 49,327
Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition - 44,649
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games - 43,155
test_account
XP-39C²
Minna no Golf 6's first week sales isnt really that far off the other portable MNG games, so that list doesnt really say much about MNG6's first week sales in that regard though. So it isnt exactly piling on MNG6's preformance, it just shows that the other games were more popular (and almost everyone one of them were released later on, not at the 3DS launch).I think that's called "piling on."
If we make it the first 6 months, the list are a lot shorter since a lot of holiday titles were on the list.
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 164,110
Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask - 119,951
Pokémon Rumble Blast - 86,294
One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP - 80,488
Tales of the Abyss - 74,173
Nintendogs + Cats - 64,213
Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D - 58,792
Samurai Warriors Chronicles - 49,327
Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition - 44,649
I don't think he meant piling on MNG 6. It's piling on first week performance of VITA games in general.
***************************************
2011
3DS + NDS: 1447438
PSP + PSV: 949693
Total: 2397131
2012
3DS + NDS: 1758018
PSP + PSV: 646572
Total: 2404590
The overall portable hardware market remain flat this year but Sony is losing customers to Nintendo so far.
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D - 164,110
Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask - 119,951
Pokémon Rumble Blast - 86,294
One Piece: Unlimited Cruise SP - 80,488
Tales of the Abyss - 74,173
Nintendogs + Cats - 64,213
Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D - 58,792
Samurai Warriors Chronicles - 49,327
Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition - 44,649
I don't think he meant piling on MNG 6. It's piling on first week performance of VITA games in general.
***************************************
2011
3DS + NDS: 1447438
PSP + PSV: 949693
Total: 2397131
2012
3DS + NDS: 1758018
PSP + PSV: 646572
Total: 2404590
The overall portable hardware market remain flat this year but Sony is losing customers to Nintendo so far.
2010 and 2011 were poor years for NDS, though. Can you list the comparison for a couple of earlier years, too?
test_account
XP-39C²
Yeah, that could be. I just saw specific mentions of MNG6, but maybe he just mentioned that game specifically because that is the game with the highest opening.
electroplankton
Banned
The problem with MnG6 is that it lagged WAY behind previous portable chapters after the opening week, despite being the 6th entries and not just a spin-off. This because it could not have good hardware sales to sustain it.
test_account
XP-39C²
Is there a continuing story in the MNG games hence the spin-off? I've only tried a few of them for a few minutes, so i havnt been able to tell. I thought it was jus a different name on the PSP due to being portable, kinda like Monster Hunter Portable for example (which i dont concider to be a spin-off).
But yeah, MNG6 is not a game alone that makes tons of people buy a Vita.
I'm only taking numbers from Chris's table of YTD and Last YTD in this thread. I'm too lazy to dig further than that. Sorry...
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Naw, if I really wanted to pile on I would bring attention to the 1st party / 3rd party ratios.I think that's called "piling on."
Naw, if I really wanted to pile on I would bring attention to the 1st party / 3rd party ratios.
MH3G certainly makes a difference there.
It's not looking too good in the software department for 3DS with it being over a game behind NDS at the same point. As MC points out, though, NDS has already been through two holiday periods and 3DS just one. Still, the tie ratio reminds me too much of the poor PSP ratio around this point to be too happy about it. :/
It'd be interesting to know what the tie ratio is for 2012, though. Most of last year, it was probably languishing ridiculously low, so it might've actually improved in 2012. May have to do some estimating later ...
We just got rid of BurntPork, don't try to take his place.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Chris is a mess, lol.
MH3G certainly makes a difference there.
It's not looking too good in the software department for 3DS with it being over a game behind NDS at the same point. As MC points out, though, NDS has already been through two holiday periods and 3DS just one. Still, the tie ratio reminds me too much of the poor PSP ratio around this point to be too happy about it. :/
It'd be interesting to know what the tie ratio is for 2012, though. Most of last year, it was probably languishing ridiculously low, so it might've actually improved in 2012. May have to do some estimating later ...
Nah, we've seen many third party releases doing well, or even very well, probably the tie ratio is a consequence of the barren lineup after Tales of the Abyss ( Pokèmon in August, Senran Kagura in September, and then nothing in October ). DS had also much, much, much more first party releases ( the two BT, three Pokèmon games, included Pokèmon Mystery Dungeon, Clubhouse Games ), while 3DS has yet to see released BT and had just one Pokèmon game without the strength of Mystery Dungeon. Probably it already increased a lot during last months, and it'll increase even further with all the releases incoming. Nothing to worry about.
snowdog1971
Banned
Yup, Sony really need to have some sort of system selling software announcements next month, and a Nintendo-esque panic price cut otherwise it's going to seriously struggle for third party titles in a couple of years.
MH3G certainly makes a difference there.
It's not looking too good in the software department for 3DS with it being over a game behind NDS at the same point. As MC points out, though, NDS has already been through two holiday periods and 3DS just one. Still, the tie ratio reminds me too much of the poor PSP ratio around this point to be too happy about it. :/
It'd be interesting to know what the tie ratio is for 2012, though. Most of last year, it was probably languishing ridiculously low, so it might've actually improved in 2012. May have to do some estimating later ...
As Pokemon Black and White 2 is a DS game it will hurt the 3DS tie ratio if it bumps the 3DS hardware a bit. Kinda funny.
How's this?
GBA numbers from Famitsu, everything else from Media-Create. I cut off some of the holiday peaks because the peaks are ridiculously high.
Market share is nearly back to the 2006-2007 era of DS domination, but the market total hasn't reached the massiveness of that same period.
Gianni Merryman
Member
As far as I'm concerned I am still expecting Mario tennis to be at number one or number two in the worse scenario this week - in fact I am afraid I screwed my predictions highballing it big time -, otherwise I would consider it underperforming honestly, and I don't see how could it be considered otherwise.
What doesn't bode well for me is just that 30% day one sellthrough - whether it is legit is yet to be seen - since I believe - and please correct me if I am being misled in this - Nintendo almost never overship its games, and Mario tennis may be more frontloaded compared to, say, Mario kart, that is an IP that's supposed to have longer legs.
Not deeming it doomed until next Wednesday of course, but I reckon it was legit to ask since, according to said rumour, Dragon's dogma is selling much better than Mario golf - unless we should have to assume that Capcom was too conservative in their extimations - maybe this is not unlikely - whereas Nintendo shipped more than they could sell on week one - that stroke me somehow so I wanted to stress it out, I would like to be proven wrong though.
frankie_baby
Member
Nintendo I believe usually overship Mario sports games as they always have good legs (not kart level legs but far better than most games)
As far as I'm concerned I am still expecting Mario tennis to be at number one or number two in the worse scenario this week - in fact I am afraid I screwed my predictions highballing it -, otherwise I would consider it underperforming honestly, and I don't see how could it be considered otherwise.
What doesn't bode well for me is just that 30% day one sellthrough - whether it is legit is yet to be seen - since I believe - and please correct me if I am being misled in this - Nintendo almost never overship its games, and Mario tennis may be more frontloaded compared to, say, Mario kart, that is an IP that's supposed to have longer legs.
Not deeming it doomed until next Wednesday of course, but I reckon I was entitled to ask since, according to said rumour, Dragon's dogma is selling much better than Mario golf - unless we should have to assume that Capcom was too conservative in their extimations - maybe this is not unlikely - whereas Nintendo shipped more than they could sell on week one - that stroke me somehow so I wanted to stress it out, and I would like to be proven wrong of course.
I think Mario Tennis is a case like Mario Party. Nintendo overships because they know it'll have legs and sell the entire shipment. So a low sellthrough is to be expected.
Beaten.
Gianni Merryman
Member
If it is so I stand corrected, anyway I was just asking, not stating anything, let alone trolling, just to clear it up.
Allan Holdsworth
Member
So the 3DS has a better tie ratio? Or is it SW/HW?
It's SW/HW, the other way would mean that 2/3 of DS owners were only interested in Pictochat or their old GBA games. But I don't know how could you think that he meant otherwise.
Just to give you a recent example, Mario Sports Mix started at 85k and ended up at 645k. These titles have pretty insane legs (just like Kirby games and Mario party games).
Also they're not the kind of games that have high first day sales, but they keep selling well over the week-end (which is usually not the case for games like Dragon Dogma)
Edit: 3DS tie ratio is pretty mediocre but it should get better by the end of 2012 I guess.
It's not you're fault. Chris wrote it backwards.
It'll get worse before it gets better. B/W2 is going to boost hardware sales while not officially counting towards its tie ratio.
About the DS v.s. 3DS tie ratio. After 65 weeks, DS had
Nintendogs - over 1 million
Brain Training - 1.6 million
More Brain Training - 1.4 million
Animal Crossing - over 2 millions
Mario Kart DS - over 1.1 million
Pokèmon Mystery Dungeon - about 700k
English trainer - about 530k
Jump! Super Stars - over 500k
Clubhouse games - about 450k
Mario & Luigi - about 340k
Total - more than 9 millions, since I'm not considering Super Mario 64 DS,Warioware and Pokèmon , since I haven't datas for them at week 65 ( so, it'll be more than 10 millions )
Instead, 3DS has
Mario Kart 7 - 1.7 million
Super Mario 3D Land - almost 1.6 million
Nintendogs + Cats - about 520k
Zelda OoT 3D - about 520k
Fire Emblem - about 380k
Pokèmon Rumble Blast - about 290k
Kid Icarus - about 280k
Total - 5.29 millions
I've not considered lower releases in both cases
We know as a fact third parties are doing a LOT better than on DS, so the real difference is in first party releases.
Nintendogs - over 1 million
Brain Training - 1.6 million
More Brain Training - 1.4 million
Animal Crossing - over 2 millions
Mario Kart DS - over 1.1 million
Pokèmon Mystery Dungeon - about 700k
English trainer - about 530k
Jump! Super Stars - over 500k
Clubhouse games - about 450k
Mario & Luigi - about 340k
Total - more than 9 millions, since I'm not considering Super Mario 64 DS,Warioware and Pokèmon , since I haven't datas for them at week 65 ( so, it'll be more than 10 millions )
Instead, 3DS has
Mario Kart 7 - 1.7 million
Super Mario 3D Land - almost 1.6 million
Nintendogs + Cats - about 520k
Zelda OoT 3D - about 520k
Fire Emblem - about 380k
Pokèmon Rumble Blast - about 290k
Kid Icarus - about 280k
Total - 5.29 millions
I've not considered lower releases in both cases
We know as a fact third parties are doing a LOT better than on DS, so the real difference is in first party releases.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Just looking at the raw numbers, that holiday 2005 DS explosion really makes the difference.
3DS will get some retroactive bonus on this image, though, once the 2011 Top 1000 gets in.
MK7 and SM3DL are a big deal, but DS had more of that caliber.
3DS will get some retroactive bonus on this image, though, once the 2011 Top 1000 gets in.
I wasn't sure how right this was thanks to things like Tamagotchi starting to appear for DS in this time frame, but it holds up.Mpl90 said:
MK7 and SM3DL are a big deal, but DS had more of that caliber.