Father_Brain
Banned
I have a very hard time imagining how that could happen, but I could be wrong.
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Nintendo 1H 2012 results - $367M operating loss, 5.06M 3DS, 5.5M Wii U forecast
- Thread starter Kazerei
- Start date
I have a very hard time imagining how that could happen, but I could be wrong.
Unless developers can drastically reduce the costs, it's very hard to reach DS pricing, especially considering the Dollar is worth almost nothing compared to a decade ago. All the systems with retail games have to same problem.
metalslimer
Member
I don't whose problem this current stagnation Nintendo is in right now, but something needs to happen very high up. I think this might be the reason for that restructure Shikamaru talked about. I don't think Iwata should go, but at a certain point Nintendo's slowness to realize the way the current market and past market(online) has got to fall on someone. I'm excited about the Wii U in terms of the future games from Retro and some cool 3rd party IP they get like Bayonetta and 101, but it's disheartening to hear Nintendo go into the Wii U with a complete failure for the lack of online in NSMBU and then no online in Pikmin 3 as well. The one area where the company is excelling (3DS in Japan) hasn't seemed to penetrate the rest of the company. The Japanese support for Wii U is quite frankly pathetic.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Games pricing and shitty digital infrastructure is hurting the 3DS. There has been a few gamjs that shouldn't have been 40$/€ retail releases and the digital prices sucks ass.
Nintendo needs to acknowledge that a lot of consumers can adquire fairly cheap sofware on iOS/Android. That looks as good or better than any 3DS game. They may be not as polished or even goo games at all, but in the consumer view they may be way more atractive.
Handheld gaming consoles needs a more flexible prices in their software and that's have been like for years already. You may have been able to seel brain training games for 40€ 5 years ago, but now there's dozen of thems for just a few bucks. Same with rythm games, puzzle games, etc...
They need to make their digital store a viable option for software, their own and third party software. They need to eliminate the 40€ price entry in their games and make variable prices (games for 30€ and 20€
. Unless they do something to fix this 3DS will surely fall in the western market sooner or later.
Nintendo needs to acknowledge that a lot of consumers can adquire fairly cheap sofware on iOS/Android. That looks as good or better than any 3DS game. They may be not as polished or even goo games at all, but in the consumer view they may be way more atractive.
Handheld gaming consoles needs a more flexible prices in their software and that's have been like for years already. You may have been able to seel brain training games for 40€ 5 years ago, but now there's dozen of thems for just a few bucks. Same with rythm games, puzzle games, etc...
They need to make their digital store a viable option for software, their own and third party software. They need to eliminate the 40€ price entry in their games and make variable prices (games for 30€ and 20€
. Unless they do something to fix this 3DS will surely fall in the western market sooner or later.frankie_baby
Member
So could I but off TV play really could be a killer feature plus ms and Sony giving them a year headstart will certainly help (any more than a year and PS2 level domination is possible)
Father_Brain
Banned
They still suffer from a serious case of "not invented here" syndrome when it comes to software pricing and online functionality; TVii aside, it's beyond absurd how little we know about Wii U's OS-level online features less than a month before the NA launch, and it appears that third parties haven't been granted access to many of them.
Nintendo has made significant strides forward, no question, but they're just not moving fast enough to keep up with the industry. I wonder how much these matters will be addressed by Iwata tonight.
the blame should fall on Retro.
frankie_baby
Member
From Nintendo at least the only games that shouldn't have been retail were pilotwings and steel diver as for any others well that's down to the 3rd parties
metalslimer
Member
Without 3rd party full backing (which is why the PS2 dominated) it will never happen. In fact, it will never happen for any connsole because multiplatform is so important.
Spirit Camera
Nintendogs+Cats
that crosswords game
Shouldn't be even close to full price. Nintendo recognized this with the DS and priced their casual games cheaper than normal.
This perfectly summarizes my thoughts on Nintendo's consoles right now. The games, as well as the hardware, are just nothing outstanding. The DS and Wii, no matter what people might think of them, were daring consoles that had the audience asking a billion questions with quite an excited, even if a bit apprehensive, tone. The ideas were so out there, but they had a focus. I just believe that even Nintendo believed in themselves more last time than now.
They may not have chosen the "me too" route... But they chose one that is just as dull IMO.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Brain training games and Nintendogs sequel could have been digital titles perfectly or at least priced accordingly.
Father_Brain
Banned
Crosswords is $30, isn't it? And they're still charging $5 a pop or more for many ROM dumps.
xxbrothawizxx63
Member
Like most others, my main concern with 3DS sales is the fact that Nintendo has already burned through the majority of their most lucrative and hardware selling franchises...
This holiday isn't going to be a great one for the 3DS. There's absolutely nothing that will push hardware other than the games already released last year. Worse still, there is only Paper Mario for core fans. The first half of 2013 looks significantly better than the holiday season line-up, but those are still very core focused games that I don't necessarily see pushing big hardware numbers.
I didn't for a second think that the 3DS would be a repeat of the DS. iOS all but killed the market for lazy casual games like Crosswords Plus, etc. and have made the sell for competent casual titles a good deal harder when they're priced at $40 or even $30. In short, the runaway success of Nintendogs and the like seemed hopeless from the beginning and so we won't see the hardware or software numbers of the DS.
In my opinion, the problem is that Nintendo hasn't been able to pick up the glaring lack of ANY western support. This wouldn't be a problem if publishers would just bring over Japanese titles, but the slow market here has them reluctant. The fact that the likes of BD:FF, EX Troopers, etc. haven't been announced for the West is scary when considering the fact that western developers are not supporting the system at all.
The 3DS is a frightening prospect to western developers because:
1) The system uses outdated tech, though ultimately competent, that would take time, effort, and investment to adapt game engine to. Added to this is the fact that popular game engines don't support the system at all and those that do don't seem particularly competent.
2) Compared to recent years, the $40 price tag of 3DS games is harder for the consumer to put up. This means that consumers are looking for the best of the best software wise. Publishers likely believe that 3DS owners will always chose Nintendo software over 3rd parties, and not without any evidence. To be noticed by the user base and possibly picked for purchase alongside a Nintendo published titles, a game would have to be of high quality and require a somewhat large investment.
They aren't wrong to think this. Heroes of Ruin, a game that at least showed some effort, was shafted by most, including myself, because that effort was overshadowed by the price tag and its other faults (graphics, etc.) Even games with big names behind them aren't safe. Need For Speed came out last year and even though it wasn't a completely terrible game it was overshadowed by better games and just wasn't good enough from all standpoints to standout from the rest.
This holiday isn't going to be a great one for the 3DS. There's absolutely nothing that will push hardware other than the games already released last year. Worse still, there is only Paper Mario for core fans. The first half of 2013 looks significantly better than the holiday season line-up, but those are still very core focused games that I don't necessarily see pushing big hardware numbers.
I didn't for a second think that the 3DS would be a repeat of the DS. iOS all but killed the market for lazy casual games like Crosswords Plus, etc. and have made the sell for competent casual titles a good deal harder when they're priced at $40 or even $30. In short, the runaway success of Nintendogs and the like seemed hopeless from the beginning and so we won't see the hardware or software numbers of the DS.
In my opinion, the problem is that Nintendo hasn't been able to pick up the glaring lack of ANY western support. This wouldn't be a problem if publishers would just bring over Japanese titles, but the slow market here has them reluctant. The fact that the likes of BD:FF, EX Troopers, etc. haven't been announced for the West is scary when considering the fact that western developers are not supporting the system at all.
The 3DS is a frightening prospect to western developers because:
1) The system uses outdated tech, though ultimately competent, that would take time, effort, and investment to adapt game engine to. Added to this is the fact that popular game engines don't support the system at all and those that do don't seem particularly competent.
2) Compared to recent years, the $40 price tag of 3DS games is harder for the consumer to put up. This means that consumers are looking for the best of the best software wise. Publishers likely believe that 3DS owners will always chose Nintendo software over 3rd parties, and not without any evidence. To be noticed by the user base and possibly picked for purchase alongside a Nintendo published titles, a game would have to be of high quality and require a somewhat large investment.
They aren't wrong to think this. Heroes of Ruin, a game that at least showed some effort, was shafted by most, including myself, because that effort was overshadowed by the price tag and its other faults (graphics, etc.) Even games with big names behind them aren't safe. Need For Speed came out last year and even though it wasn't a completely terrible game it was overshadowed by better games and just wasn't good enough from all standpoints to standout from the rest.
Tallshortman
Member
Besides the head start the Wii U has almost none of the trappings the PS2 launch had that made it so successful. I mean by that logic the 360 would have had PS2 level of success, something it hasn't even come close to.
metalslimer
Member
VC pricing (well the whole initiative is lacking) is one of the more aggregious problems. Nintendo is afraid to "devalue" their work, but ffs these games came out 20 years ago, no one cares anymore. GB games should GBC should be 3-4 bucks, and the eventual GBA shouldn't be more than 8. Unfortunately I can see GBA games being 15 bucks.
frankie_baby
Member
Oni training is sold at a cheaper price than most games and while nintendogs hasn't sold as well as its predecessor its still a million seller and still chugging along
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Yeah, and they barely have any sale, except for the recent one in what they are discounting an awesome 25% in four games or so. 25%...I mean....really?
And their full games are 45€...there's not a single retail store that is selling them for that price.
m.i.s.
Banned
I feel the same way as you do almost point for point.
I'm also struggling to see who the audience is for Wii U besides die-hard Nintendo fans and the most casual consumers with cash to burn. It's overpriced by at least £/$/€50 and will be £/$/€100 more than a PS3 -- but unlike the latter it won't even play DVD movies never mind blu ray.
So I'm going to respectfully take the contrary view to the rest of Gaf and say that Nintendo will struggle to even sell 5.5million Wii U's by April 2013 at that price and with that software line-up.
frankie_baby
Member
Some GB games should be cheaper but I have no quarms about the 5 quid or whatever I paid for links awakening, GBA games will probably be 8 I reckon
metalslimer
Member
That is unlikely considering NSMBU being in the launch lineup. Otherwise I would completely agree. A new Mario game on a console during Black Friday will drive people to the stores. Apple's ludicrous Mini prices actually makes it more competitive as well than I though since I assumed it would be cheaper.
Your arguments are all well and good, but they all take your perspective on the issue when we are talking about what would be best for the 3DS in the market and the market doesn't want to pay that much for old gameboy games.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Still too expensive when you can find dozens of brain training games for free on android. And Nintendogs was one of the best selling IP's on DS and now is suffering to barely pass the 1 million mark.
The market changed and Nintendo didn't realized yet (or maybe is still working in Japan, but they can wrap their heads up in the west).
metalslimer
Member
Pokemon was not in this reporting period. That's Japanese sales. Although I wouldn't expect huge B/W2 numbers in the west (at least comparitively to B/W)
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
GBA games will range $8-10. Much like GBC/GG are in line with NES/SMS+, GBA will be in line with SNES/Genesis/NeoGeo+.
What's going to be interesting is Wii U VC pricepoints. $10 Saturn, $12 Dreamcast, $15 Gamecube baselines?
Reallys? Is the "4.26 million unit sales" in this image refering to something else besides Pokémon? Cause as of this weeks Media Create numbers B2/W2 is at 2,807,849 over there.
edit: Maybe that 4.26 million includes previously released PKMN games that're still selling over this period?
Freezie KO
Banned
And speaking of VC prices, it's just so insulting that Nintendo is pushing NES downloads on the 3DS.
It's terrible for customers that these games cannot be cross-played and transferred back-and-forth between Wii U and 3DS.
It's like Nintendo has no idea that its customers are comparing them to the vastly superior iTunes model.
It's terrible for customers that these games cannot be cross-played and transferred back-and-forth between Wii U and 3DS.
It's like Nintendo has no idea that its customers are comparing them to the vastly superior iTunes model.
SolarPowered
Member
Strange statement when you consider that the 3DS' main hook was the passing 3D fad and the Wii U's sudden focus on tablet gaming which has been booming for the last two years or so on normal tablets. Seems to me like they just started paying attention to the needs and wants of another market that never really cared for them from the start.
That or any of the other half dozen models from Amazon, Samsung, Sony, etc.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Another fine example of Nintendo not getting it.
-Pyromaniac-
Member
I'm pretty sure Iwata has no idea what itunes is. They just discovered the internet recently. Give them time!
Graphics Horse
Member
The hardware figures are shipments, aka sold to retail. I'm guessing that applies to pre launch Pokemon B&W2 shipments too?
I feel the same way as your boy does. DS/3DS retail titles are for the most part very overpriced. Even the eshop stuff is expensive for what it is unless you find a gem like pushmo or something. I can't bring myself to take a risk of that amount on a 3DS game.
What Nintendo releases are, for the most part, games that cannot be played on other platforms. Nintendo plays on that and prices accordingly. Eventually people might get sick of the nickel and diming they do and sales will fall. Until then though, why wouldn't Nintendo keep charging as much as they can.
I thought the 4.26 million was referring specifically to PKMN game sales not DS's cause right after that it talks about DS hw/sw figures @_@? This is all to confusing for me!
Freezie KO
Banned
Honestly, I think $5, 8, and 10 for NES, SNES, and N64 games isn't that bad. It's the lack of crossplay and their insistence on consumers re-buying titles they've already bought that chafes me.
m.i.s.
Banned
I'm not convinced that NSMB U will have the same effect that NSMB and NSMB Wii -- the first 2D Mario platformers in over a decade-and-a-half -- had on their respective systems. Both systems were already well established when those games were released and so, I think it'll be the die hard Nintendo fans who will pick up a Wii U with the game.
Certainly, as a very loose correlation, NSMB 2 will continue to chart prominently for years to come but, as far as I'm aware, has dropped off significantly from its debut weeks (I'm not au fait with the precise figures so please feel free to correct me).
Don't get me wrong, I think Wii U will do well out of the gates as almost all Nintendo consoles do (even the 3DS, with its inflated price, broke sales records for a Nintendo platform) but I think it will slow down drastically just as the 3DS [before the price drop] did once the fans and casuals had had their fill.
ScreenSplitter
Member
Also, they're releasing a really mediocre NES game next week. Can't remember what it's called, but it's full priced and just so... telling of Nintendo's strategies.
It might seem that way, but Nintendo has shown great interest in both ideas long before they became popular. Both ideas (3D and the controller with a screen) were entertained during the GC era but ultimately did not succeed. It might be that Nintendo is capitalizing on the current market. But the ideas were always there..... I just don't think they are good ideas, or at least not exciting ones.
Cygnus X-1
Member
Still predicting profits at the end of the year.....but by a very small margin. Sure the entire industry is struggling these days.
But also Sony, Panasonic, Sharp and recently Google, Intel and even Microsoft are starting to suffer a lot from the craziness of the tablets introduced by Jobs. Apple and Samsung are really the two monster of the electronic world now and all other companies in the sector are going nuts.
Though Nintendo did lot if mistakes with 3DS during launch, I think that after the price cut they did most of the things right. Wii U is also going to pursue the tablet hype and it's a good strategy. If it's going to work or not it's really hard to say.....not only Nintendo has troubles reading the needs of the consumer, but most of the big companies. Even the PC and the Laptops are selling less and less....something we never say before. Tablets are really replacing everything it seems - from the phone, to the PC, to the video games, to the books--- I think we are now entering in the Web 3.0 or something like that.
Nintendo at least has more then 10 billion $ of reserves and not a single penny of debts. So, either struggling like that, they can still making games for many years. And that's their only strong point: their games, tablets or not, are still amazing and people will keep buying them even in the future.
But also Sony, Panasonic, Sharp and recently Google, Intel and even Microsoft are starting to suffer a lot from the craziness of the tablets introduced by Jobs. Apple and Samsung are really the two monster of the electronic world now and all other companies in the sector are going nuts.
Though Nintendo did lot if mistakes with 3DS during launch, I think that after the price cut they did most of the things right. Wii U is also going to pursue the tablet hype and it's a good strategy. If it's going to work or not it's really hard to say.....not only Nintendo has troubles reading the needs of the consumer, but most of the big companies. Even the PC and the Laptops are selling less and less....something we never say before. Tablets are really replacing everything it seems - from the phone, to the PC, to the video games, to the books--- I think we are now entering in the Web 3.0 or something like that.
Nintendo at least has more then 10 billion $ of reserves and not a single penny of debts. So, either struggling like that, they can still making games for many years. And that's their only strong point: their games, tablets or not, are still amazing and people will keep buying them even in the future.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I think the rigid prices that Wii set in place are problematic, the ranged 3DS prices really are better.
Agreed that crossplay and console movement are core problems though, VC should reallybe positioned as a hardware agnostic platform unto itself that's compatible with a range of Nintendo hardware.
As a consumer I'd love paying the less possible, but in my case $40 3DS games (more like $60, being in Mexico) haven't been a deal breaker. I own 14 retail titles with only two games that haven't been great. It's going to be very hard to have a DS-like success again, dropping the price of the games might fail to improve the numbers while also cutting their profits.
I know, yet if 3DS sells as much as it did in Q4 last year, we'll be loiking at a 30 millions userbase next quarter.
Even by Nintendo standards it would be good in just over 2 years.
Graphics Horse
Member
No, I meant the 4.26 million could mean PKMN shipments. (including the ones due to for release in October the following week) Only a guess but the only one I can make sense of.
H_Prestige
Banned
You're absolutely right. The previous NSMB games came out after a bazillion people had already bought the console, so the effective price of entry was just the price of the game, $50.
Are 25 million people willing to spend $360-410 to play NSMB U?
NDS software after 7 quarters ( as of 30 June, 2006)
Japan - 34.420.000
Americas - 25.210.000
Others - 19.160.000
Total - 78.790.000
3DS software after 7 quarters ( as of 30 September, 2012)
Japan - 20.370.000
Americas - 23.340.000
Others - 20.750.000
Total - 64.450.000
As said earlier, NDS has two Holidays during the seven quarters, while 3DS just one.
The interesting fact ( maybe) is that we already knew 3DS's Japanese software sales, despite being very good, were 10 millions behind DS at the same time...but from this, it seems Japan itself is the region with the biggest drop. The lack of the monster out-of-nowhere hits IS the difference, after all, and this is something everyone I think agree with.
Japan - 34.420.000
Americas - 25.210.000
Others - 19.160.000
Total - 78.790.000
3DS software after 7 quarters ( as of 30 September, 2012)
Japan - 20.370.000
Americas - 23.340.000
Others - 20.750.000
Total - 64.450.000
As said earlier, NDS has two Holidays during the seven quarters, while 3DS just one.
The interesting fact ( maybe) is that we already knew 3DS's Japanese software sales, despite being very good, were 10 millions behind DS at the same time...but from this, it seems Japan itself is the region with the biggest drop. The lack of the monster out-of-nowhere hits IS the difference, after all, and this is something everyone I think agree with.
frankie_baby
Member
Do the 3ds figures include eshop games?
Every figure is what Nintendo has shipped to retail.
So yes, it could include US/Europe early shipment orders too.
You're not comparing like to like. To remove seasonal effects you can use TTM.
Code:
3DS software TTM: 46.90M from quarter ending Sep 2012
NDS software TTM: 79.81M from quarter ending Sep 2006Of course, this doesn't adjust for install-base size.
Good question.
This is a stockholder's reasoning, i.e. Basically, anything but constant growth is bad. From a video game/support standpoint, it's doing okay, though. No, it's not doing numbers like DS is about to do, but no one reasonably expected it to, either.
dacuk
Member
I hope this gets to become a reality.