I think you missed my first point where I said that casuals (interchangeable with people unimpressed with visuals IMO) will go for mobile. PC will be the bastion of core gamers who do care about visuals. There will still be some in the middle, but given how quickly mobile graphics are improving, I don't expect the middle to be that large in 4-5 years.
My first point with indies is that they are basically willing to work for free in the hopes that they make a game that sells well enough to make them some living money. It's hard to get cheaper than free, and that's happening right now. I can easily imagine 3-4 years from now that many more indie developers will be making games - and because it's something they would want to do anyway - they will be willing to do it for a pretty low return.
My second point is that tools like Unity and other game engines are getting better and the cheaper engines are getting better so that you don't need a $1M budget just to have a reasonable game engine. As more and more game engine's get built and they compete to be licensed (there's already UE, Cryengine, REDengine, Unity, etc), that low-mid tier price will fall more as well making indie games with decent graphics more and more common.
1: The idea that, "all casuals are going mobile," is both overly simplistic, and not particularly well supported by the data. A lot of, "casual," gamers, only play the big titles like CoD, or Madden, and there's no evidence these kinds of gamers are leaving for mobile. Mobile, is mostly a gaming destination for young children, or, gamers whom would otherwise have lapsed out of gaming altogether otherwise.
2: No, I'm sorry, but indie developers cannot work for free, or even very little, indefinitely. Already we're seeing a trend of indie game programmers working on one or two titles as a labor of love, before leaving for other more lucrative jobs. Unless they're one of the few highly successful indie developers, they just cannot earn enough money to do that indefinitely.
Long story short, people grow up, they start families, have to pay for insurance, have to put kids through college. It's stupid to think that people could just continue being professionally poor by choice, under those circumstances. 99 times out of 100, an individual will choose to change careers.
Seriously, I find this astounding. This is, "basic human nature," territory, so I'm not sure how you miss it so thoroughly.
3. Don't assume casuals don't care about visuals, they do, they just don't think small differences like, playing 900p, verses 1080p, are all that big a deal. If casual gamers didn't care about visuals, we'd all be playing low budget titles with NES era visuals.
What PC master race types cannot wrap their head around, is that most gamers operate on a, "good enough," mentality. PC's on the other hand, are Hot rods, that require a lot of time, money, and attention. There's a reason why normal consumers don't drive around in hot rods, and there's a reason mainstream gamers don't own a top end gaming rig.
