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[Glass Joe]

Yeah, but let's not get twisted, Mario 3D World will probably bomb harder than NSMB Wii U.

NSMB Wii U - 170,563 / 553,624

There's 1 million U's in Japan. 50% of the owners have NSMB U. To call that game a bomb is questionable. Certainly the hardware is struggling, but I would point the finger there as opposed to the game.

I don't think a 3D Mario is going to save Japan or even do amazingly well, either. The Galaxies were around 1 million with 13x the userbase. But with that said, 3D Land was a lot more successful, so maybe they found the formula that works.

Realistically, I expect 3D World to track around Pikmin 3 numbers in Japan. It will definitely help out the situation in US and Europe but Japan needs a new fad game. Trouble is those are hard to do and Nintendo's already lucked out a lot with them (Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Nintendogs, Brain Age, etc.) It's hard to capture lightening in a bottle like that.

 

[idlewild_]

They should market the game before if they wanted it to be really successful, 3 weeks maybe not enough to get people attention with all the next gen craze.

PS4/X1 aren't launching until next year in Japan, so there is no next-gen craze to contend with there. They probably should have started already in the west though, launching on the same day as X1 in the US and PS4 in EU isn't going to do them any favors.

 

[DaBoss]

To me, the only real comparison is the Wii games. New Super Mario Bros DS was a brand new game that restarted the 2D Mario games while Mario 64 DS was a remake, and NSMB2, and 3D Land are pretty close. Although I should note that NSMB2 launched 6 months later.

But fair enough. I do think Japan and everyone else has 2D Mario fatigue and are ready for a 3D Mario game again.

9 months later.

 

[Wynnebeck]

DS	New Super Mario Bros.		6,402,912
DS	Super Mario 64 DS		1,217,587
		
3DS	New Super Mario Bros. 2		1,942,090
3DS	Super Mario 3D Land		1,820,590
		
Wii	New Super Mario Bros. Wii	4,518,492
Wii	Super Mario Galaxy		1,017,287
Wii	Super Mario Galaxy 2		1,003,763

There we go. Saved me the trouble.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Realistically, I expect 3D World to track around Pikmin 3 numbers in Japan

If Mario 3D World sold 90k-100k in its first Japanese week, I would class that as a total disaster signifying the end of Nintendo bothering earnestly with home console platforms.

But then 3D Land sold 343.4k when the 3DS was around 2 million in Japan, so half that and we get in the 150-170k realm which is a little more respectable.

 

[The perfect Dark]

If Mario 3D World sold 90k-100k in its first Japanese week, I would class that as a total disaster signifying the end of Nintendo bothering earnestly with home console platforms.

But then 3D Land sold 343.4k when the 3DS was around 2 million in Japan, so half that and we get in the 150-170k realm which is a little more respectable.

Oh come on....

 

[Glass Joe]

If Mario 3D World sold 90k-100k in its first Japanese week, I would class that as a total disaster signifying the end of Nintendo bothering earnestly with home console platforms.

But then 3D Land sold 343.4k when the 3DS was around 2 million in Japan, so half that and we get in the 150-170k realm which is a little more respectable.

100k-150k I feel is a decent guess as to where it will land. Slightly better than Pikmin 3 due to the holidays and more consoles in homes. But apparently within that range, you feel 150k is respectable but 100k would be a total disaster signifying the end of Nintendo home consoles? Good grief. Yeah that range is a spread but come on now.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Oh come on....

Well what do you want to hear? 3D Mario has sold around the 300k mark each entry starting with Sunshine in Japan on its first weeks (Mario 64 seemingly did not agree with Japan at all), and to drop down to a third of that would be something you could just keep justifying when you have another 3d-game capable console that could have had a 3D Land 2 release on and sell superiorly?

At what point does putting the time and effort into console titles just no longer make financial sense due to the incredibly limiting lack of userbase? Hell, even the situation where "the first 3D Mario" on the system fails to move the needle at all is potentially damaging to the brand perception too. Its no longer a big event title but a "oh this is out huh" situation.

 

[Sandfox]

Well what do you want to hear? 3D Mario has sold around the 300k mark each entry starting with Sunshine in Japan on its first weeks (Mario 64 seemingly did not agree with Japan at all), and to drop down to a third of that would be something you could just keep justifying when you have another 3d-game capable console that could have had a 3D Land 2 release on and sell superiorly?

At what point does putting the time and effort into console titles just no longer make financial sense due to the incredibly limiting lack of userbase? Hell, even the situation where "the first 3D Mario" on the system fails to move the needle at all is potentially damaging to the brand perception too. Its no longer a big event title but a "oh this is out huh" situation.

If the game sells bad Nintendo will probably blame it on the install base or something and probably try again whenever they bring out a new console.

 

[kswiston]

Well what do you want to hear? 3D Mario has sold around the 300k mark each entry starting with Sunshine in Japan on its first weeks (Mario 64 seemingly did not agree with Japan at all), and to drop down to a third of that would be something you could just keep justifying when you have another 3d-game capable console that could have had a 3D Land 2 release on and sell superiorly?

???

Until 3D Land, Mario 64 was the best selling 3D title in the series. It's still the #2 and #3 best selling title in the 3D Mario series (counting it and its DS port separately). If the first week total wasn't impressive, it was due to the fact that the game was a launch title.

 

[Pie and Beans]

???

Until 3D Land, Mario 64 was the best selling 3D title in the series. It's still the #2 and #3 best selling title in the 3D Mario series (counting it and its DS port separately). If the first week total wasn't impressive, it was due to the fact that the game was a launch title.

Yeah not disputing the slower burn, just can't remember the N64 launch situation in Japan at all. Before my time being able to follow such things so cant comment there.

Although Mario 64 DS didn't do too hot in its first week either. So theyre the titles to be comparing to if we are talking low 100k zones and good ol long legged hopes.

I want to assume 3D World can do 200k though, right? I mean... yeah? Those WiiU owners gotta have that box for something.

 

[Tripon]

Yeah not disputing the slower burn, just can't remember the N64 launch situation in Japan at all. Before my time being able to follow such things so cant comment there.

Although Mario 64 DS didn't do too hot in its first week either. So theyre the titles to be comparing to if we are talking low 100k zones and good ol long legged hopes.

I want to assume 3D World can do 200k though, right? I mean... yeah? Those WiiU owners gotta have that box for something.

I wonder if its just a question of having the system mothballed already. Well, that, and the fact that Nintendo have offered two great reasons to have a 3DS in MonHun 4 and Pokemon X/Y and haven't yet in the Wii U's situation.

 

[Yanikun]

NSMBU hasn't even sold 550K.

Sunshine sold 790K, so it has to beat that.

The Wii U's installed base is 1.1M.

You can do the math, I guess.

There's no math to be done, because Mario games are not front-loaded. Barring an exceptionally low opening, the first-week numbers and the current Wii U install base don't matter as much as the legs the Wii U will allow the game to have. Those legs will also be determined by how appealing the game is, and I think it has appeal on its side considering it's not just a Mario game - consistently fun - but also a multiplayer party game.

Comgnet, Amazon, marketing, install base etc. are all decent ways to gauge the potential success or failure of front-loaded games, but this isn't one of those.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Based on?

Based on the line you removed from my post.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Comgnet, Amazon, marketing, install base etc. are all decent ways to gauge the potential success or failure of front-loaded games, but this isn't one of those.

This is assuming the WiiU is a system that is going to start selling at an okay rate reliably any time soon which seems unlikely. Thats when a game enjoys the long legs of every adopter picking up that must have synonymous title to get it across good milestones, but the spurts of life and death the WiiU has ahead of it just aren't anything to put the "shit first week, will have legs" excuse on and call time. If the WiiU's fortunes did turnaround in like... Q2 2014, theres always the danger something like 3D World would be perceived as too old to care about. Bundles next week may point at what a lost cause NSMBU is at this point too after the poor planning of running that franchise fatigue a little too close to the bone.

3D World'll get bundled at some point too though I guess.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It's not just about Comgnet though, 3D World is poised to be the worst selling Mario 3D ever.

Mario 2D struggled to cross 500k, how much do you think Mario 3D will sell?

If 3D World does have an advantage, it's that it's not the fourth of its kind, and the last one didn't just come out a few months earlier on a much more popular system.

 

[BlackJace]

Based on the line you removed from my post.

The NSMBU part? I thought you had more chart data or something, sorry

 

[Road]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201311/01042596.html

Top 10 from 2012-10-29 to 2013-10-27:

[PS3] Yakuza 5: Yume, Kanaeshi Mono (SEGA) {2012-12-06} - 582,257
[PS3] Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance (Konami) {2013-02-21} - 464,422
[PS3] JoJo's Bizarre Adventure All-Star Battle (Bandai Namco) {2013-08-29} - 455,974
[PS3] Tales of Xillia 2 (Bandai Namco) {2012-11-01} - 442,753
[PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (Take-Two) {2013-10-10} - 437,593
[PS3] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 (Bandai Namco) {2013-03-20} - 404,294
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors 8 (Koei Tecmo) {2013-02-28} - 347,480
[PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops II - Subtitled Edition (Square Enix) {2012-11-22} - 336,319
[PS3] Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2 (Koei Tecmo) {2012-12-20} - 277,394
[PS3] Super Robot Wars OG 2nd (Bandai Namco) {2012-11-29} - 275,508


[PSP] One Piece: Romance Dawn (Bandai Namco) {2012-12-20} - 298,636
[PSP] AKB1/149: Renai Sousenkyo (Bandai Namco) {2012-12-20} - 217,891
[PSP] Sword Art Online: Infinity Moment (Bandai Namco) {2013-03-14} - 199,791
[PSP] Pro Baseball Spirits 2013 (Konami) {2013-03-20} - 166,858
[PSP] Toukiden (Koei Tecmo) {2013-06-27} - 152,651
[PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 (Konami) {2012-11-01} - 143,047
[PSP] Summon Night 5 (Bandai Namco) {2013-05-16} - 127,597
[PSP] 7th Dragon 2020-II (SEGA) {2013-04-18} - 112,940
[PSP] Uta no Prince-sama: All Star (Broccoli) {2013-03-07} - 107,827
[PSP] Shining Ark (SEGA) {2013-02-28} - 102,328


[PSV] Toukiden (Koei Tecmo) {2013-06-27} - 223,457
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice (SCE) {2013-03-07} - 189,657
[PSV] Senran Kagura Shinovi Versus: Shoujotachi no Shoumei (Marvelous AQL) {2013-02-28} - 141,381
[PSV] The Legend of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) {2013-09-26} - 112,260
[PSV] Phantasy Star Online 2: Special Package (SEGA) {2013-02-28} - 105,171
[PSV] Dragon's Crown (Atlus) {2013-07-25} - 104,390
[PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 (Bandai Namco) {2013-03-20} - 100,594
[PSV] DanganRonpa 1-2 Reload (Spike Chunsoft) {2013-10-10} - 88,334
[PSV] Muramasa Rebirth (Marvelous AQL) {2013-03-28} - 78,253
[PSV] Tales of Hearts R (Bandai Namco) {2013-03-07} - 73,324

 

[Christopher]

The ps3 totally turned itself around in Japan..now that's awesome.

I bought a Wii U and have never been more dissapojnted in a Nintendo console even the Gamecube was awesome.

I'll agree that if Mario 3D world doesn't turn this thinf around then doomed.

 

[pieatorium]

not updated sales just what they were when they left the charts looks like

also whoever does the japanltdrank site the entry for one piece musou vita has a missing zero in the ltd column, it has 50k first week 10k ltd heh

 

[Kid Ying]

It's not just about Comgnet though, 3D World is poised to be the worst selling Mario 3D ever.

Mario 2D struggled to cross 500k, how much do you think Mario 3D will sell?

It could definitely reach the same heights. Ive been seeing people saying that the wiiu userbase consist only of the hardcore nintendo fans, if thats true, why those fans would play a Mario and not the other? The new series is what it is becauseof its expanded userbase, which probably doesnt exist on the wiiu. When we are talking about an userbase that tiny ,its not unreasonable to think that a lot of the people that bought mario u is going to buy world.

I dont think its going to sell as much, to be honest, but i dont think its an impossible task either.

They should market the game before if they wanted it to be really successful, 3 weeks maybe not enough to get people attention with all the next gen craze.

Huh? Why should anyone even care when the next system is going to release in more than three months. Only gaming fans are going to follow the news and thats not going to make them stopping all games till february either.

And, to my surprise, i agree with pies and beans. If Nintendo can only sell 100k copies of mario 3d world on its release, its going to be the fail of the year.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Oh dear, opening weeks don't matter for Mario. It will slow burn its way right past Sunshine and shoot through the Galaxy games too even with a poorer opening.

This is starting to sound like "NSMBU will easily outsell FFXIII."

 

[Asd202]

Huh? Why should anyone even care when the next system is going to release in more than three months. Only gaming fans are going to follow the news and thats not going to make them stopping all games till february either.

PS4/X1 aren't launching until next year in Japan, so there is no next-gen craze to contend with there. They probably should have started already in the west though, launching on the same day as X1 in the US and PS4 in EU isn't going to do them any favors.

I meant in the west forgot that it's JAPAN sales thread . But anyway looking at comgnet numbers I don't think there was any marketing done in Japan also. Not to mention it was absent from TGS because Nintendo does not give a fuck about it. It was an easy marketing opportunity, when most games are for mobile it could shine. We all know that Direct is not enough and it only caters to the very core audience.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Home console 3D Mario legs.

				FW		LTD		Release date	As of		Multiplier
N64	Super Mario 64		162,111		1,639,921	23/06/1996	20/12/1999	10.12
Wii	Super Mario Galaxy	256,341		1,017,287	1/11/2007	31/10/2011	3.97
Wii	Super Mario Galaxy 2	337,569		1,003,763	27/05/2010	31/10/2011	2.97
GCN	Super Mario Sunshine	280,610		789,989		19/07/2002	31/10/2011	2.82

Without some sort of eventual bundling of the game, if it has similar legs to these past titles [on a system that's selling much worse, so that's not necessarily a given], Super Mario 3D World will need to do something like a 250K+ first week to exceed Sunshine. Or have abnormally strong legs for a 3D Mario platformer in Japan in recent history.

So there's the math.

Are we expecting a 250K+ opening?

EDIT: Super Mario 64 number now fixed.

 

[Christopher]

All with consoles much larger than the Wii us base...and your thinking 250? Ha

 

[BishopLamont]

We're talking about mario here, sure it needs a big userbase to do massive numbers but its gonna do respectable numbers regardless of the userbase, SM3DW isn't your typical 3D mario either, its a hybrid 2D/3D mario like SM3DL, otherwise that game wouldn't have sold 2M+, it would have performed like the Galaxy games.

It'll have a bigger launch then NSMBU, its legs is debatable.

 

[shinra-bansho]

NSMBU had a launch of 468,827 170,563. EDIT: Oops, copied wrong number from garaph (LTD instead of FW), seemed ridiculously high, thanks Chris.

You think Super Mario 3D World is going to top that...? By a lot? A little?

All with consoles much larger than the Wii us base...and your thinking 250? Ha

I don't really have any confidence in it doing that.
Some people might. But it's release is very close now, and it seems so far to be something of a surprisingly low key event.

I'm currently expecting something closer to the 150K mooted earlier in the thread.

Further context to the above sales info, Super Mario 64 was a launch title, but for the other 3D Marios on home consoles the installed bases at their times of release were [from garaph]:

Super Mario Sunshine - 1,453,421
Super Mario Galaxy - 3,725,999
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 10,362,703

 

[Chris1964]

NSMBU had a launch of 468,827.

That's 3D Land and 3D World will be lucky to have a LTD close to that opening.

 

[pieatorium]

nsmbu first week was

media create - 163.528
famitsu - 170.563

 

[opticalmace]

Holy crap, SM3DW comes out this month. Didn't even realize.

This is one of those games that could really sell me on a Wii U... interested in seeing reviews and how it does.

Unless the Wii U becomes a hit next year I don't see how it's going to beat the LTD numbers of the other 3D Mario games though.

 

[metalslimer]

I would be really surprised if 3D World doesn't sell 150k first week when even Pikmin hit 100k. If 3D World opens near Pikmin that would be a complete and utter disaster. I think the legs will be awful for a Mario and never reach 500k though.

 

[AzaK]

It feels like Nintendo gave up on Wii U in general. The system really needed the sort of quick and dramatic response 3DS got when it stumbled after launch. Instead Nintendo held back 1st party software to stack the end of the year, waited far too long for a price drop that is far too little and as a result of early inaction allowed 3rd parties to cancel projects en masse going by insiders.

I guess the buck stops at Iwata, but the failure to respond really feels like it's been a company wide issue.

Things felt off with Wii U all the way before launch too and I remember waiting, thinking "Nintendo will kick into gear soon, surely" but it never really happened.

 

[airmangataosenai]

I would be really surprised if 3D World doesn't sell 150k first week when even Pikmin hit 100k. If 3D World opens near Pikmin that would be a complete and utter disaster. I think the legs will be awful for a Mario and never reach 500k though.

I have a similar stance, although as always digital has the chance to throw off predictions slightly. All the same my predicted range is 150k-200k FW. Mario games tend to have poor preorder numbers compared to other games given how they tend to sell in their first week.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

If Mario 3D World sold 90k-100k in its first Japanese week, I would class that as a total disaster signifying the end of Nintendo bothering earnestly with home console platforms.

Yeah, if it sells under 100k, wild dragons will fiercely descend from the sky, roasting Nintendo HQ, then the rest of japan. It will not only be the end of Nintendo home console platforms, it will probably affect video games as a global phenomenon, hell, it will be the end of the world as we know it.

I don't know about you, but I'm definitely heading for the shelter come the end of the month.

On the plus side, if it sells 110k or more it's business as usual and cake for everybody

 

[BishopLamont]

Yeah, if it sells under 100k, wild dragons will fiercely descend from the sky, roasting Nintendo HQ, then the rest of japan. It will not only be the end of Nintendo home console platforms, it will probably affect video games as a global phenomenon, hell, it will be the end of the world as we know it.

I don't know about you, but I'm definitely heading for the shelter come the end of the month.

On the plus side, if it sells 110k or more it's business as usual and cake for everybody

lol almost got me

that 90-100k range is a classic

 

[perorist]

Figured I'd ask here - does anyone know how much a vita title has to sell to get a "the best" budget re-release? Or is it not based on sales?

 

[pieatorium]

Figured I'd ask here - does anyone know how much a vita title has to sell to get a "the best" budget re-release? Or is it not based on sales?

I would say its likely based on publishers trying to cash in on expanding userbase. A big bunch of best releases hit around both the price cut in earlier in the year as well as the new models recently.

there are games that sold under 20k that got a best version

 

[BishopLamont]

Figured I'd ask here - does anyone know how much a vita title has to sell to get a "the best" budget re-release? Or is it not based on sales?

Probably when the game is selling near 0 and enough time has passed which varies from game to game, goes for all systems.

 

[perorist]

there are games that sold under 20k that got a best version

Thanks, that's very useful info

 

[1st Course]

Home console 3D Mario legs.

				FW		LTD		Release date	As of		Multiplier
N64	Super Mario 64		[B]890,749[/B]		1,639,921	23/06/1996	20/12/1999	1.84
Wii	Super Mario Galaxy	256,341		1,017,287	1/11/2007	31/10/2011	3.97
Wii	Super Mario Galaxy 2	337,569		1,003,763	27/05/2010	31/10/2011	2.97
GCN	Super Mario Sunshine	280,610		789,989		19/07/2002	31/10/2011	2.82

Are you sure about this figure? Or did the N64 really sell 900k+ in its first week?

 

[SmokeMaxX]

NSMBU had a launch of 468,827 170,563. EDIT: Oops, copied wrong number from garaph (LTD instead of FW), seemed ridiculously high, thanks Chris.

You think Super Mario 3D World is going to top that...? By a lot? A little?
I don't really have any confidence in it doing that.
Some people might. But it's release is very close now, and it seems so far to be something of a surprisingly low key event.

I'm currently expecting something closer to the 150K mooted earlier in the thread.

Further context to the above sales info, Super Mario 64 was a launch title, but for the other 3D Marios on home consoles the installed bases at their times of release were [from garaph]:

Super Mario Sunshine - 1,453,421
Super Mario Galaxy - 3,725,999
Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 10,362,703

I'm pretty confident that 3DW won't launch lower than NSMBU. More people own a WiiU and this is pretty much the only game that every WiiU owner SHOULD buy.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Are you sure about this figure? Or did the N64 really sell 900k+ in its first week?

Actually you're right, I'm not sure. I took the first figure off of garaph.

First week was more like 160 based on this chart from Road. http://www.abload.de/img/sm64_nsmbu_79d9suz5.png

So it had an impressive life-time multiplier of something like 10. I guess if 3DW follows something like that I guess I can see it outselling Sunshine and the Galaxy games. But I'm not expecting it.

 

[BKK]

162,111

 

[strangedopamine]

Actually you're right, I'm not sure. I took the first figure off of garaph.

First week was more like 160 based on this chart from Road. http://www.abload.de/img/sm64_nsmbu_79d9suz5.png

So it had an impressive life-time multiplier of something like 10. I guess if 3DW follows something like that I guess I can see it outselling Sunshine and the Galaxy games. But I'm not expecting it.

I have the exact Famitsu numbers if you want:

[N64] Super Mario 64 162,111 / 1,639,921 23/06/96

 

[1st Course]

First week was more like 160 based on this chart from Road. http://www.abload.de/img/sm64_nsmbu_79d9suz5.png

NSMBU legs are really pathetic.

 

[michaelius]

Oh, for some reason I thought they weren't reporting until tomorrow.

Unit forecasts and actuals through end of Q2 (000s).

	Forecast	Actual	
	SKU	Units	SKU	Units
PS3	1	150	1	20
WiiU	3	170	1	0
PSP	2	180	1	130
PSV	1	40	0	0
PC	5	860	5	1270

PC beating expectations. Everything else underperforming.

Were they originally planning to release the Sonic games in Q2?

That's Sega report for Q2.

There's a Wii U SKU reported as 0k sales - so I assume depending on rounding that Yakuza HD shipped less than 500 or less than 1000 copies for launch.

 

[duckroll]

I'm pretty confident that 3DW won't launch lower than NSMBU. More people own a WiiU and this is pretty much the only game that every WiiU owner SHOULD buy.

But it doesn't generally pan out that way. Most WiiU owners probably don't just own a WiiU. They have other sources of entertainment, and they are likely not regularly using the WiiU to begin with. With a little over a million WiiUs sold in Japan so far, I would say that based on sales and interest in generally, it's likely that the active WiiU userbase is probably less than half of that.

I'm sure that every single person who only owns a WiiU and only plays games on the WiiU and still regularly uses the WiiU will be buying Super Mario 3D World. I just don't think that amounts to very many people at all, realistically.

 

[Daingurse]

Without a large install base, Mario won't be able to stretch it's legs effectively. It'll sell well relative to other Wii-U stuff, but the install base immediately limits the title's evergreen potential. I wonder if it'll do better or worse than NSMBU? It's a far more ambitious looking title, but 2D Mario traditionally sells more . . .

The most important sales for Mario 3D World will not be existing WiiU owners, but rather how many people will want to buy a WiiU to play it. The WiiU userbase is so weak right now that it needs every push it can get.

True, good point. No idea what kinda system selling potential it holds though. I lack that perspective, it will be interesting to observe.

 

[duckroll]

The most important sales for Mario 3D World will not be existing WiiU owners, but rather how many people will want to buy a WiiU to play it. The WiiU userbase is so weak right now that it needs every push it can get.

 

[michaelius]

The most important sales for Mario 3D World will not be existing WiiU owners, but rather how many people will want to buy a WiiU to play it. The WiiU userbase is so weak right now that it needs every push it can get.

We will see how many people want to drop 35k Yens to get what looks like 3d Mario they already played on 3DS.