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[donny2112]

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, November 12th (November 11th is Federal holiday: Veteran's Day). Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 6-November 2 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, November 14th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: PSV will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. PSV is not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WIU]

Good/Bad Formatting

Good              Bad
[360] 200K        [360] 200 thousand
[360] 200,000     [360] 200.000
[360] 200000      [360] - 200000

Potential hardware impacting events in October:
2-D 3DS (i.e. 2DS) released Oct. 12 at $129 (22 days)
Pokemon X/Y released Oct. 12 (22 days)

September's Results - thanks to various angles

Using Wii U 95 K gives:

360	179K
PS3	216K
Wii U	95K

To closest thousand.

Vita - 41K

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/131031/img/06l.jpg[IMG]

Get 94 pixels for 3DS and 93 pixels for PS3. Using 216K for PS3 => 218K for 3DS.[/QUOTE]

[url=http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=495326]September 2012 NPD thread[/url]
[url=http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=499065]October 2012 NPD thread[/url]

[url=http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=413648]NPD Prediction Thread Archive[/url]

 

[pieatorium]

[360] 150k
[3DS] 350k
[PS3] 185k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 65k

 

[GulAtiCa]

[360] 150K
[3DS] 500K
[PS3] 175K
[PSV] 50K
[WIU] 125K

I don'[t expect much for 360 and PS3 that month, esp as their new systems will be out soonish.

I think 3DS will explode in sales, esp thanks to 2DS.

 

[DaBoss]

[360] 151K
[3DS] 400K
[PS3] 151K
[PSV] 38K
[WIU] 72K

3DS is going to make or break people's predictions.

 

[BlackJace]

[360] 144k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 169k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 88k

Don't disappoint me, 3/2DS.

EDIT: I downclocked 3DS a bit, I feel 400 is more reasonable.

 

[prag16]

[360] 160k
[3DS] 425k
[PS3] 165k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 90k

 

[LOCK]

The 3DS had at least 350k sales in October to beat the 2012 3DS YTD.

Just helping out.

 

[pieatorium]

The 3DS had at least 350k sales in October to beat the 2012 3DS YTD.

Just helping out.

was there some pr about beating 2012 ytd specific to the us?

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Is it me or are the dates wrong?

NPD release should be November 14 (Thursday), so predictions should close on Nov 11 (Monday).

 

[Lexxism]

was there some pr about beating 2012 ytd specific to the us?

I think it was a tweet(not sure if it was confirmed or not). I remember seeing that one but I can't remember which thread I read it.

 

[donny2112]

NPD release should be November 14 (Thursday), so predictions should close on Nov 11 (Monday).

Monday, Nov. 11 is a holiday in the U.S. (Veteran's Day), so pushed it to Tuesday instead.

 

[LOCK]

was there some pr about beating 2012 ytd specific to the us?

Yeah it was a tweet, but from the investors briefing. Can be reviewed in this thread: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=706943

Shows how large the Pokemon bump in software sales was also.

 

[Aquamarine]

With >70% of Wii U's September 2013 hardware sales coming from the limited-edition Wind Waker HD bundle, I'm not optimistic that the bundle will continue to grab as much attention in its second reporting month. The price cut, however, will still have an effect on consumers, as will the hardware push. We have Wii Party U, Sonic: Lost World, two days of digital Wii Fit U, and a big third-party software push for the console. I believe it will allow the Wii U to stave off the declines incurred from the Wind Waker HD bundle and the hype of the $50 deluxe SKU deal.

Because of this, and the fact that the Wii U blew my expectations away last month, I'm actually going to be adjusting the console up (on a weekly basis) to 85,000, 10K above the adjusted average.

Wii U - 85,000

With the 2DS and Pokemon X + Y combo, I predict a great amount of demand (higher than 3DS XL, for example), due to its mass appeal to families. This will be 3DS's highest October debut yet.

3DS - 375,000 (53% YOY)

Regarding 360, I expect a continued push from GTA V, but because we're so close to next-gen, I'm adjusting it lower than the usual average weekly increase for October despite having Arkham Origins, Battlefield 4, Assassin's Creed IV, and WWE 2K14 releasing on the platform in the reporting period.

360 - 158,000 (-42% YOY)

For PS3, I expect demand for the GTA V bundle to die down now that the console has hit a bit of a lull between now and the holiday season. I don't expect Beyond: Two Souls will have any influence on sales, and demand for multiplats will be dampened by the ports we'll get to PS4 next month. So, I'm going lower than average weekly sales last month.

PS3 - 164,000 (-2% YOY)

Vita continues to be Vita...I'm keeping this console very similar to last month.

PSV - 36,000


In proper counting order:

[360] 158k
[3DS] 375k
[PS3] 164k
[PSV] 36k
[WIU] 85k

 

[Madao]

[360] 140k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 160k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 90k

i've missed several of these in the last couple of months.

 

[Road]

The 3DS had at least 350k sales in October to beat the 2012 3DS YTD.

Just helping out.

was there some pr about beating 2012 ytd specific to the us?

Yeah it was a tweet, but from the investors briefing. Can be reviewed in this thread: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=706943

Shows how large the Pokemon bump in software sales was also.

That is about 1st party software, not hardware.

 

[andy_lhc]

[360] 150k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 165k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 78k

 

[catmincer]

I never do this so I am going to this month.

[360] 164k
[3DS] 385k
[PS3] 158k
[PSV] 36k
[WIU] 77k

 

[jvm]

When did the $180 and $250 Xbox 360 models get put into circulation? It's not an official price cut, right, but rather a holiday-season cut that Microsoft is doing? At least, that's my impression.

Link:
http://majornelson.com/2013/10/11/x...dles-limited-time-50-off-promotion-in-the-us/

That $50 cut last year was pretty helpful. Looks like these started in mid-October. Depending on your perspective, I'd call them a hardware event for the month.

Edit: A quick check shows Wal-mart, GameStop, and Amazon all selling the $180 system (for just under $180, depending on the retailer).

 

[vinnygambini]

[360] 172k
[3DS] 407k
[PS3] 165k
[PSV] 38k
[WIU] 85k*

*Wii U should be able to maintain September's sales. Nintendo needs to market Wii U more thoroughly especially in the lead up to Super Mario 3D World in November.

 

[noobie]

[360] 172k
[3DS] 412k
[PS3] 170k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 80k

 

[SicSemperTyrannis]

[360] 160k
[3DS] 370k
[PS3] 190k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 60k

 

[AniHawk]

i believe the nsmbu/nslu wii u bundle was in stock in the very late days of the tracking period, but i don't know when it went into effect. that should boost numbers slightly considering it cuts out the middle man for a lot of people.

 

[metalslimer]

[360] 154k
[3DS] 395k
[PS3] 169k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 67k

Just one more month until the apocalypse of PS4/One and Wii U's last stand. Also not really sure why the Wii U would hold up to last month's new bundle

i believe the nsmbu/nslu wii u bundle was in stock in the very late days of the tracking period, but i don't know when it went into effect. that should boost numbers slightly considering it cuts out the middle man for a lot of people.

I would think a lot of families interested in that bundle would be waiting a little longer into November to pick up a Wii U.

 

[baekshi]

[360] 152k
[3DS] 430k
[PS3] 174k
[PSV] 44k
[WIU] 82k

 

[Megadragon15]

[360] 160K
[3DS] 425K
[PS3] 170K
[PSV] 35K
[WIU] 80K

 

[Tagg9]

[360] 170K
[3DS] 450K
[PS3] 180K
[PSV] 30K
[WIU] 75K

 

[Zero-Crescent]

[360] 160k
[3DS] 375k
[PSV] 34k
[PS3] 175k
[WIU] 90k

 

[starwarsfan541]

[WiU] 125k
[3DS] 440k

 

[LOCK]

That is about 1st party software, not hardware.

Yes it is, read the first tweet. They expect 5m units of hardware to be sold this year.

 

[MasterSheen]

[360] 155k
[3DS] 400k
[PSV] 35k
[PS3] 140k
[WIU] 70k

 

[kswiston]

After my horrible performance last month, this is a complete stab in the dark...

[360] 155k
[3DS] 425k
[PS3] 165k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 75k

 

[pieatorium]

Yes it is, read the first tweet. They expect 5m units of hardware to be sold this year.

David Gibson ‏@gibbogame 30 Oct

Nintendo saying 3DS share has increased in Japan EU and USA, it's a growing market, you down in USA and Europe as last yr launched XL


you = yoy?

 

[LOCK]

David Gibson ‏@gibbogame 30 Oct
Nintendo USA 3DS has already passed last year's total, expect over 5m sold this year in USA with strong holiday season

This quote in particular.

 

[Memino]

My first time doing one of these so I'll probably be way off

[360] 140k
[3DS] 480k
[PS3] 175k
[PSV] 25k
[WIU] 70k

 

[donny2112]

This quote in particular.

Just to muddy up the water more, Apr-Sep 2013 > Apr-Sep 2012 for 3DS in the U.S. If they're talking about fiscal YTD hardware, they don't have to be including October. They could also be talking about shipments being higher to this point. The simplest explanation would probably be to assume they're referring to Jan-Oct 2013 > Jan-Oct 2012, but there are definitely other possibilities that would fit the bill ...

 

[LOCK]

I believe it is YTD and not FYTD. Iwata and Reggie have made quotes before about selling a certain amount of consoles in a calendar year. It is very Iwata-esque.

Plus another tweet before hand mentions the YTD being down compared to the last FY quarter from the XL launch. I think they saved face by referencing the current YTD as of the Briefing.

Either way it isn't really that big of a deal, because the 2DS and Pokemon should give the 3DS a substantial boost YOY.

 

[bakman21]

[360] 137k
[3DS] 475k
[PS3] 140k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 100k

 

[DrWong]

[360] 150K
[3DS] 425K
[PS3] 160k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 100k

 

[Road]

Yes it is, read the first tweet. They expect 5m units of hardware to be sold this year.

This is the part in the presentation where there's a comparison in the US between this year and last year:

This is a graph which compares this year's sales transitions of first-party software for Nintendo 3DS to last year's in the U.S. market. We have already sold more units than the total of last year even before the full-fledged year-end sales season

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/131031/02.html

 

[shinra-bansho]

[360] 145K
[3DS] 375K
[PS3] 155k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 73k

 

[Jonsoncao]

[360] 160K
[3DS] 360K
[PS3] 130K
[PSV] 35K
[WIU] 58K

 

[donny2112]

[3DS] 340K
[360] 160K
[PS3] 100K
[WIU] 40K
[PSV] 30K

 

[FamousLastX]

[360] 155k
[3DS] 410k
[PS3] 167k
[PSV] 37k
[WIU] 80k

 

[archnemesis]

[360] 155k
[3DS] 330k
[PS3] 125k
[PSV] 35k
[WIU] 65k

 

[Bruno MB]

[360] 163,000
[3DS] 380,000
[PS3] 152,000
[PSV] 38,000
[WIU] 70,000

 

[Prevolition]

[360] 145k
[3DS] 400k
[PS3] 170k
[PSV] 45k
[WIU] 95k

 

[astrogamer]

[360] 150k
[3DS] 470k
[PS3] 160k
[PSV] 40k
[WIU] 85k

 

[DaBoss]

I just thought about the fact whether the GTA V bundles would have an impact on the PS3 for even this month. How big would the fall be? It may have a small impact I guess. It is possible the PS3 could be lower than the 360 due to this.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I just thought about the fact whether the GTA V bundles would have an impact on the PS3 for even this month. How big would the fall be? It may have a small impact I guess. It is possible the PS3 could be lower than the 360 due to this.

Hmm, well I would say the impact of the GTA bundle in September amounted to around an extra ~120K units.

The question is, whether that bundle will continue to have an effect and whether it will be as pronounced now that a lot of people (7M, 3M on the PS3) have the game already.

If the PS3 and 360 return to their pre-GTA levels then they'll likely only sell something like 80K and 100K respectively in October. Maybe I'll revise my numbers a bit.

The other big question is whether being so close to the impending launch and not being that far in price really from the new systems (well at least the PS4) is going to see the sales of these older systems take an even further downward slide.

 

[donny2112]

Keeping it visible in for others to predict for October's numbers.