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November 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9

A

Aquamarine

Member
With the incredible popularity of the 2DS $99 Black Friday deal, Pokemon X + Y, the success of The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds, and more, I assume that Nintendo will have pushed the console slightly over 1 million.

3DS - 1,150,000 (113% YOY)

An initial channel check I performed (one distributor) showed a 4.233:1 3DS:Wii U ratio. Extrapolating from that would give us 272K. I believe that number is in line with the Wii U's monthly performance considering the Mario & Luigi bundle, Super Mario 3D World, and NOA's attempt at ramping up marketing.

Wii U - 276,000

For PS4's debut I predict numbers in line with Sony's PR given my estimates for Canadian sales (140K) and Latin American sales (30K).

PS4 - 1,233,000

Considering Microsoft's incredible command over their supply chain, I expect Black Friday week to follow up on the launch with a respectable amount of consoles sold. Let's say Microsoft's day-one split was 70:30 NA:pAL. I'm anticipating an additional 40% reserved for Black Friday.

Xbox One - 1,010,000

For 360 and PS3 I forecast the usual Black Friday bumps, taking into account their highly diminished presence with PS4 and Xbox One available.

PS3 - 501,000 (-34% YOY)

360 - 653,000 (-48% YOY)

And finally for Vita, I plan for more of the same, with a standard Black Friday increase.

PSV - 132,000


In proper counting order:

[360] 653K
[3DS] 1150K
[PS3] 501K
[PS4] 1233K
[PSV] 132K
[WIU] 276K
[XB1] 1010K
 
D

Deleted member 125677

Unconfirmed Member
my predictions are not that far off from Aquamarine's

I dun good :)
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
[3DS] 1300K
[PS4] 1200K
[XB1] 850K
[360] 815K
[PS3] 518K
[WIU] 300K
[PSV] 135K

Edit: I wish you guys would sort your entries. :)
 
Sakura

Sakura

Member
I have a feeling my predictions are gonna be waaay off. But oh well. It's going to be an exciting NPD day.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Radec said:
[PSV] 40K
[WIU] 30K
Click to expand...
Yawnier said:
[PSV] 55K
[WIU] 80K
Click to expand...
Steel said:
[360] 50,000
[3DS] 350,000
[PS3] 40,000
[PSV] 60,000
[WIU] 35,000
Click to expand...
Gestault said:
[360] 190,000
[PS3] 165,000
[PSV] 34,000
[WIU] 52,000
Click to expand...
Coxy said:
[PSV] 48k
[WIU] 62k
Click to expand...
Krilekk said:
[PS4] 950K
[PSV] 75K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 1300K
Click to expand...
unknownstranger said:
[PSV] 180k
[WIU] 100k
Click to expand...

Err... are some of these mistakes?
 
M

michaelius

Banned
Anything below 100k is probably someone forgetting this data includes black friday.

Aquamarine said:
Now we play the waiting game.

Only 3 days, 16 hours, and 55 minutes remaining (approximately) until the MAJOR NPD release.
Click to expand...

And we might get even less data than in previous months :(
 
C

C4Lukins

Junior Member
I am not going to do this in proper format, but I will just make some random guesses for fun.

PS4 1.15 million
Xbox One 950k
360 1.25 million
PS3 780K
Vita 250 K
Wii U 425k
2DS/3ds 1.4 million
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
michaelius said:
Anything below 100k is probably someone forgetting this data includes black friday.
Click to expand...
Eh.. if you're talking about PSV, 100K is like a 3.5x increase from Oct.

Were there good deals for it, or anything like the bundles from last year?

But some of those Wii U predictions are down from October. :S
 
M

michaelius

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Eh.. if you're talking about PSV, 100K is like a 3.5x increase from Oct.

Were there good deals for it, or anything like the bundles from last year?

But some of those Wii U predictions are down from October. :S
Click to expand...

There was PS4 launch which should have boosted Playstation remote play device ;)
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Eh.. if you're talking about PSV, 100K is like a 3.5x increase from Oct.

Were there good deals for it, or anything like the bundles from last year?

But some of those Wii U predictions are down from October. :S
Click to expand...

Didn't Amazon have a good deal on the Walking dead bundle?

Maybe 175 USD or so?
 
D

Deleted member 125677

Unconfirmed Member
michaelius said:
There was PS4 launch which should have boosted Playstation remote play device ;)
Click to expand...

dat $200 accessory on top of a $400-500 investment depending on games/ps-eye etc. ?

Nah, I don't see a lot of people going all in at once, maybe at some point along the way though
 
B

BlackJace

Member
Apparently Pachter is predicting Wii U being 65% down, so....that would put it around 157,500.

Reaaaaally don't want to be that number, because holy shit.

EDIT: Beaten by Aquamarine, gotdamn.
 
G

Gbpackers31

Member
I've never done this, but why not. It'll be fun.

[360] 690K
[3DS] 1285K
[PS3] 490K
[PS4] 1210K
[PSV] 146K
[WIU] 242K
[XB1] 910K
 
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