Congrats, 1st Course!
I'm still in the overall top 10! \o/
I'm still in the overall top 10! \o/
You're still in the overall top 10! \o/
-
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November 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
airmangataosenai
Member
So close it hurts. :/
Second time I've been a runner-up for a contest here (The other was for the election predictions last year), ahh well.
Congrats to 1st Course though, you know your stuff.
Second time I've been a runner-up for a contest here (The other was for the election predictions last year), ahh well.
Congrats to 1st Course though, you know your stuff.
not bad for my first month, *raises fist at the sky screaming dakuuuuuuuuuuuuuun*
SwiftDeath
Member
It is somewhat funny because 1st Course is banned currently so can't accept his congratulations
theprodigy
Member
wait, one person picked it all correctly?
(it was Aaron Strife wasn't it)
HOW?
airmangataosenai
Member
A lot of us got it right, it came down to a tie-breaker over the margin of victory and it went back and forth for a while until the final results in California were certified.
As for the other guy, if I remember right he made some sort of insane prediction like 2 million for 3DS and several other systems over 1 million, I knew he was going to be positioned where he is, haha.
theprodigy
Member
"ok Cali, keep piling on to Obama's MoV"
"no no stop giving him a bigger lead!"
my December NPD predictions:
Wii U-9,999,999
going for the record!
Aquamarine
Member
Well, according to that 25K Vita estimate for last month...
Zero-Crescent
Member
115 for units* and 37 for points. Ouch, I think I have Rankings whiplash. At least I'm still at 21 for the year.
*I waaay overshot the PS4 figures, accounting for about half of the units alone.
*I waaay overshot the PS4 figures, accounting for about half of the units alone.
Thanks!
There's a link in the OP, but the basics of it is that each system can have up to x points (16.6667 this month), and how much you get of that depends on how close you are %-wise to the real total, maxing out at 100% off. Therefore, being off by 500K on a 2m system gives you as many points as being off 50K on a 200K system. Relative loseness matters instead of just raw # of units. (Especially poignant this month with WiU selling around 200,000 and PS4 selling over 1m.)
On top of that, there's bonus points for getting the order of the systems correct and then based on your ranking in the Top 10 in the Unit totals.
Yep, using 25K for Vita last month. Hmmm.
I manually exclude obvious joke predictions to avoid skewing the aggregate numbers.
62nd place! At least I wasn't in last place, that's all that matters (sorry Duxxy3). What I learned is that Nintendo has to come up with something concerning its handheld business in the future (of course, perhaps they have bigger fish to fry, but the next iteration of their handheld will come sooner than WiiU's successor...ideally.) And of course, I learned that NPD = US, but I was thinking about NA when I used Sony's PR statement. This was a special NPD prediction thread for new hardware launches, so I took part this one time. So my overall takeaway is...Nintendo
has GOT to do something to change its fortunes in the West. People are justifiably concerned about Nintendo's fate.
is doomed
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Top 21 woot
3DS still killed me badly though
3DS still killed me badly though
MasterSheen
Member
Ugh. Really embarrassing position. 3DS is the big disappointment here, although I really overshot 360 as well. I didn't expect Xbone to get that close to PS4. I thought I was already being pessimistic with my Vita, and it still only managed to halve it...
I though this month would get me kicked out of the overall top 10, but everybody doing terribly actually raised me. Yay?
I though this month would get me kicked out of the overall top 10, but everybody doing terribly actually raised me. Yay?
metalslimer
Member
The 3DS really killed me. I can never seem to get the 3DS right. It's nice to do even decently in such a crazy month.
Dedication Through Light
Member
Yes at least Im in the top 100, a true expert right here.
Aquamarine
Member
We'll know for sure in the next few days. Presumably it will be on January 9th or January 16th.
Normal schedule would have it on the 16th, right?
Aquamarine
Member
Here's a historical record of NPD thread creation times:
(01-11-2007, 06:47 PM) - December 2006 (2nd Thursday)
(01-17-2008, 06:44 PM) - December 2007 (3rd Thursday)
(01-15-2009, 06:48 PM) - December 2008 (3rd Thursday)
(01-14-2010, 06:35 PM) - December 2009 (2nd Thursday)
(01-13-2011, 06:33 PM) - December 2010 (2nd Thursday)
(01-12-2012, 06:34 PM) - December 2011 (2nd Thursday)
(01-10-2013, 06:32 PM) - December 2012 (2nd Thursday)
As you can see, the trend for the past four January releases is to release on the 2nd Thursday of the month. This number has been decreasing every year. The question is whether NPD will jump to the 3rd Thursday of the month like they did in 2007, or whether they will continue on the 2nd Thursday trend.
January 9th - 2nd Thursday
January 16th - 3rd Thursday
Personally I agree with you...I believe that NPD will release it on the 16th as well. But as I said, we'll know something a little more concrete in a few days.
Randolph Freelander
Member
That's because the retail calendar was steadily moving sooner because of accumulated extra days. However, last year, they padded January by an extra week, which means the calendar is offset once again. NPD covers December 1 - January 4 this month, so the numbers shouldn't be revealed until the 16th.
Correct answer.
Aquamarine
Member
It's been a few days. I now have reason to believe that NPD will be released Thursday, January 16th after market close. Don't take this comment as absolute confirmation of anything, but I'm very confident about that date now.
I apologize for the earlier confusion I introduced by my "January 9th or 16th" comment.
I apologize for the earlier confusion I introduced by my "January 9th or 16th" comment.
Both Michael Pachter (Wedbush) and Michael Olson (Piper Jaffray) said in notes today that they expect the results on the 16th (i.e. two weeks from today).
Aquamarine
Member
Katana_Strikes
Member
Didn't NPD always used to be the 2nd Thursday of the month?
Or did I just imagine it.
Or did I just imagine it.
2nd Thursday after the end of the reporting period. Most months have the end of the reporting period prior to the 1st Thursday of the next month, which would make it equivalent to what you said. It's just not always that case. 2nd Thursday after the end of the reporting period (Jan. 4 for Dec-2013) is the normal release date, though.