Normal schedule would have it on the 16th, right?
Here's a historical record of NPD thread creation times:
(01-11-2007, 06:47 PM) - December 2006 (2nd Thursday)
(01-17-2008, 06:44 PM) - December 2007 (3rd Thursday)
(01-15-2009, 06:48 PM) - December 2008 (3rd Thursday)
(01-14-2010, 06:35 PM) - December 2009 (2nd Thursday)
(01-13-2011, 06:33 PM) - December 2010 (2nd Thursday)
(01-12-2012, 06:34 PM) - December 2011 (2nd Thursday)
(01-10-2013, 06:32 PM) - December 2012 (2nd Thursday)
As you can see, the trend for the past four January releases is to release on the 2nd Thursday of the month. This number has been decreasing every year. The question is whether NPD will jump to the 3rd Thursday of the month like they did in 2007, or whether they will continue on the 2nd Thursday trend.
January 9th - 2nd Thursday
January 16th - 3rd Thursday
Personally I agree with you...I believe that NPD will release it on the 16th as well. But as I said, we'll know something a little more concrete in a few days.