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2016 suddenly sucks a bit less as Sarkozy gets trounced in French primary

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Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
God, I NEEDED THIS.


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Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s political career has been effectively ended, after he was dealt a humiliating defeat on Sunday by his former prime minister François Fillon in the first round of the race to choose the rightwing Republican party’s candidate for the presidency next spring.

Fillon, a socially conservative, free-market reformer who admires Margaret Thatcher and voted against same-sex marriage, came close to winning the nomination straight out, with around 43% of the poll.

He now faces a second-round runoff against more moderate Alain Juppé, the mayor of Bordeaux who was prime minister under Jacques Chirac.

The divisive former president Sarkozy suffered a humiliating defeat, knocked out of the race after he ran a hard-right campaign on French national identity, targeting Muslims and minorities. His poor score after a campaign in which he suggested banning Muslim headscarves from universities and was forced to protest his innocence faced with several legal investigations into corrupt campaign financing, showed he had become just as much a hate figure on the right as on the left.
He basically tried to model himself as some bizarre Marine Le Pen/Donald Trump hybrid, seemingly unaware that the FN became even stronger every single time he tried to cater Le Pen's ranks. He would have fared disastrously bad come the elections at a time when the PS is a hot mess and the FN feels invigourated by the economy, Brexit and the surge of populist hard right movements across the world.

Toddles, you wretched imp.

Ninja edit: On the less positive side, Fillon is a bit of a turdswinger. Still.
 

Dalibor68

Banned
Not surprised his far-right rhetoric didn't stick when afaik the highest immigration numbers were under his reign plus him having his hands in the Lybia intervention.
 
Hmm, that's good but:

Fillon, a socially conservative, free-market reformer who admires Margaret Thatcher and voted against same-sex marriage, came close to winning the nomination straight out, with around 43% of the poll.

Not all good.
 
I know that the French voting system makes it highly unlikely for Le Pen to actually win this, but this is 2016 and I'm freaking out, so: Are there any chances that she might manage to slip past Fillon in a likely run-off between him and her simply due to the possibility of left voters staying at home? The way I understand it, Juppé's strategy is to appeal to moderates whereas Fillon positioned himself as a proper and straightforward conservative candidate. So the question is: Is a significant part of centrist and leftist voters really willing to cast their vote for such a candidate simply to prevent a Le Pen presidency? I would hope so, of course, but recent events have made me not taking anything for granted anymore.

Speaking of which, what about the legislative elections? I know that, due to the French voting system, the Front National only has two representatives in the National Assembly at the moment, but what are the prospects for the 2017 elections? Is this bastion going to hold?
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Uh, sorry but I'm not understanding why this was a good thing. Sarkozy was the liberal, wasn't he? And he lost to one of the right-wing (but not FAR right-wing) nominee?
 

Joni

Member
Uh, sorry but I'm not understanding why this was a good thing. Sarkozy was the liberal, wasn't he? And he lost to one of the right-wing (but not FAR right-wing) nominee?

It is a primary for 'The Republicans' so these are all 'moderate' right-wing politicians.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
He was the most right wing candidate of the party.

It is a primary for 'The Republicans' so these are all 'moderate' right-wing politicians.

Oh okay, I see where I got confused. I was mixing up Sarkozy with the current president, who is the liberal one. He was the previous president, so it makes more sense now.
 

bomma_man

Member
I know that the French voting system makes it highly unlikely for Le Pen to actually win this, but this is 2016 and I'm freaking out, so: Are there any chances that she might manage to slip past Fillon in a likely run-off between him and her simply due to the possibility of left voters staying at home? The way I understand it, Juppé's strategy is to appeal to moderates whereas Fillon positioned himself as a proper and straightforward conservative candidate. So the question is: Is a significant part of centrist and leftist voters really willing to cast their vote for such a candidate simply to prevent a Le Pen presidency? I would hope so, of course, but recent events have made me not taking anything for granted anymore.

Speaking of which, what about the legislative elections? I know that, due to the French voting system, the Front National only has two representatives in the National Assembly at the moment, but what are the prospects for the 2017 elections? Is this bastion going to hold?

They did against the elder Le Pen. Hopefully after Brexit and Trump people actually turn out.

Uh, sorry but I'm not understanding why this was a good thing. Sarkozy was the liberal, wasn't he? And he lost to one of the right-wing (but not FAR right-wing) nominee?

Juppe is the moderate here.
 
Uh, sorry but I'm not understanding why this was a good thing. Sarkozy was the liberal, wasn't he? And he lost to one of the right-wing (but not FAR right-wing) nominee?

Sarkozy isn't a liberal. He's an opportunistic shithead rightwinger who tried to win the primary by adopting as much of the far-right positions and rhetoric as possible. He lost against Fillon who positioned himself as a "proper" conservative, i.e. right-wing policy wise, but also not insane. I guess most people here were cheering for Juppé, however, who campaigned as a more moderate center-right candidate. Nobody expects the left to stand any chance in this election, by the way, because Hollande sucks, so the final showdown will be between Le Pen and either Juppé or, more likely now, Fillon.
 

Simplet

Member
I know that the French voting system makes it highly unlikely for Le Pen to actually win this, but this is 2016 and I'm freaking out, so: Are there any chances that she might manage to slip past Fillon in a likely run-off between him and her simply due to the possibility of left voters staying at home? The way I understand it, Juppé's strategy is to appeal to moderates whereas Fillon positioned himself as a proper and straightforward conservative candidate. So the question is: Is a significant part of centrist and leftist voters really willing to cast their vote for such a candidate simply to prevent a Le Pen presidency? I would hope so, of course, but recent events have made me not taking anything for granted anymore.

Speaking of which, what about the legislative elections? I know that, due to the French voting system, the Front National only has two representatives in the National Assembly at the moment, but what are the prospects for the 2017 elections? Is this bastion going to hold?

No chance for Le Pen. Her father was crushed 82%-18% against Chirac, the slogan from leftists parties was "Vote for the crook, not for the fascist" (Chirac was under investigation for some campaign finance shenanigans at the time). The leftists will hold their nose but they will vote (only Sarkozy might have had a chance to really suppress their vote, and even then I don't really buy it).

I can only see her having a slight chance if by some miracle Hollande gets through to the second round. I'm not sure traditional right-wing voters would be as principled against Le Pen as the left. It will never happen though.

Sarkozy isn't a liberal. He's an opportunistic shithead rightwinger who tried to win the primary by adopting as much of the far-right positions and rhetoric as possible. He lost against Fillon who positioned himself as a "proper" conservative, i.e. right-wing policy wise, but also not insane. I guess most people here were cheering for Juppé, however, who campaigned as a more moderate center-right candidate. Nobody expects the left to stand any chance in this election, by the way, because Hollande sucks, so the final showdown will be between Le Pen and either Juppé or, more likely now, Fillon.

I could see Macron having an outside chance as some kind of "anti-establishment" candidate from the center. I think he would clean house against anyone in a second round election except maybe Juppé, but he needs to get there first...
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Uh, sorry but I'm not understanding why this was a good thing. Sarkozy was the liberal, wasn't he? And he lost to one of the right-wing (but not FAR right-wing) nominee?

Other folks have already replied to you, so I'll just point that Sarkozy was the worst of the bunch because of his inflamatory, borderline xenophobic rhetoric. He also hitched his wagon to Trump's after his victory.

The biggest problem with him is that the people voting the FN do so because they despise politicians like Sarkozy. Every time he mouthed off against muslims or immigrants, he was energizing the FN's campaign. He's widely considered a worm-like creature with no values, so people will go after the genuine far right party instead of the counterfeit version. Plus, the left hates him, so cummulative voter turnout against the FN would have been abysmal.

That last bit is what troubles me about Fillon potentially grabbing the conservative nomination. He's so socially conservative and enamored with Thatcher that some more progressive voters may sit this one out if they are forced to pick between him and the FN.
 
It's awesome Sarkozy lost, but the likely winner Fillon is really not that great either. Traditionalist hard right, courting the catholic vote, pro Russia (and anti US, though with Trump in the WH who the fuck knows), with a hint of islamophobia (supports the mayors who decided on burkini ban), obsessed with the past grandeur of France, eager to support Assad... he is moderate and boring in the way he speaks (unlike Sarko/Trump) but his policies are shit. I certainly don't love him either but Juppé would have been a better choice.

I really don't think Le Pen can win. But Fillon probably will now.
 
Well, it brings me some hope for the 2017 election. I don't like Juppé nor Fillon but at least they stand a chance against Marine and I trust them to be competent enough not to run the country into the ground. Of course, everyone in my area will still vote for Marine but the other regions might save us.
 
The whole "we can't let FN win" is going to have a wrong impact again. Just like we saw with Brexit and Trump. Give people your solutions and answers, don't just point to the other side and say "they are bad". If people vote FN there is a reason for it. Tap into that reason, but with actual better solutions.
 

G.O.O.

Member
Good article in English about yesterday's election and its candidates

https://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2016/11/19/the-french-right-wing-primary-eve-of-round-1/

Sarkozy :

Anyone who’s read my posts on French politics over the years knows what I think of him. I have said it countless times and will say it yet again: Nicolas Sarkozy is the worst person in the top-tier of French politics. He is despicable and loathsome in ways too numerous to mention in a short blog post, the main one, though, being the “4 Is,” which he has made the alpha and omega of his campaign. Some examples of Sarkozy’s demagogic posturing over the past three months: 1. His call for the banning of the Islamic headscarf from universities and workplaces, despite the manifest unconstitutionality of such measures and the certain rage and resistance they would engender. 2. Riding the wave of the late summer’s burkini hysteria, his demanding the banning of the offending swimsuit and by constitutional amendment if necessary, how such a fantastical amendment could be possibly be worded not being explicated and the European Convention of Human Rights be damned. 3. Calling for the automatic, indefinite administrative detention, and without judicial oversight, of all persons “fiché S,” i.e. put on a police watch list for possible links to terrorists but with the persons in question having committed no crime or been charged with anything. In short: Guantánamos à la française, in France, and for French citizens. 4. Suspending family reunification for immigrants legally resident in France, malgré the right to live with one’s family being a fundamental human one and contained in declarations and treaties to which France is a signatory, e.g. the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the aforementioned European Convention. 5. Demanding the end to alternative meals in school cafeterias, so that if, say, pork is all that’s on the menu and a pupil does not want to eat this, he or she has only to ask for a double order of French fries. Honnêtement, it takes a truly perverse, twisted mind to come up with something like this—as well as to thunderously cheer it from an audience. 6. Not so much demagogic as comically laughable: calling on primary schools to teach children, regardless of their actual origins, that their ancestors were the Gauls. Such would be akin to all American students—of all races, ethnicities, and creeds—being informed by mandate of the state that they are descended from the pilgrims who arrived on the Mayflower. Sarkozy delights in this rhetoric, whipping LR base audiences into a frenzy in stigmatizing a part of the population and with his trademark trash-talking style. À propos, he’s fascinated with Trump. The similarities between the two men are indeed striking—though Trump has more money and higher poll numbers. The hugely unpopular Sarkozy, who is obsessed with avenging his 2012 defeat and determined to vanquish his LR rivals, has never led in a primary poll. He will likely finish second tomorrow. If he somehow wins the 2nd round, it will be an even greater upset than the Nov. 8th one outre-Atlantique.

Fillon, winner (and likely winner aswell next sunday) :
Fillon looked like a loser for most of the campaign, treading water and going nowhere, with no hope of catching Sarkozy and Juppé. Already four years ago, in the wake of the bloodbath between the fillonistes and copéistes for control of the UMP, I pronounced him toast and for all time. But lo and behold, his poll numbers have been surging over the past couple of weeks and with him now in striking distance, even at parity, with Sarkozy for second place. If Fillon makes it to the 2nd round, it will be a stunning coup de théâtre foreseen by no pundit or politico. And if it happens at Sarkozy’s expense, it will be such sweet revenge for Fillon, who hates Sarkozy with a passion, Fillon having been mistreated and humiliated during his five years at Matignon under Sarko’s hyper-presidency. If this comes to pass and Fillon squares off against Juppé, he will have an excellent chance of winning, and ergo be the odds-on favorite next May. Whoda thunk it? Fillon is, in fact, totally credible as president of the republic. He has the stature. I personally think he presents himself well. His personality and style are reassuring. As for his politics, that’s another matter. He comes out of the old social Gaullist tradition, having been a protégé of the late Philippe Séguin, but, like Bruno Le Maire, has tacked libéral and rightward in recent years. I think some of his positions on the economy, plus the “4 Is,” are nuts. And then there’s his Russophilia and problematic rhetoric on Syria, which does not sit well chez moi. But as Fillon’s positioning is exactly there with the French median voter of the right, it is politically serving him well.

And Juppé, 2nd yesterday :
He’s been the favorite from day one and whom I have been asserting for the last two-plus years would vanquish Sarkozy, win the primary, and most likely succeed François Hollande at the Élysée. I still think this but if Juppé unexpectedly faces Fillon in the 2nd round, then all bets are off. Juppé is, it must be said, a mainstream conservative, though maybe a little less libéral than the other candidates. He was a chiraquien, which means he believes in the state, but has forged an image as a moderate, almost a centrist, via his positions on the “4 Is,” which are the most liberal and well-thought out on the right. Juppé simply refuses to demagogue these issues or flatter the hard-right LR base on them, which has led the latter to intensely distrust him (for LR militants, he’s a RINO à la française). If the 2nd round next May is Juppé vs. Marine Le Pen, there will be significant defections of LR voters to the latter, though with Juppé more than compensating with centrists—he has been formally endorsed by the centrist UDI plus François Bayrou and his MoDem—and center/moderate-left voters who appreciate him for the “4 Is” but also the fact that he manifestly has the stature of an homme d’État. In the Élysée he’ll be a French Angela Merkel, with a strong commitment to Europe, a proper wariness of Russia, a disinclination to deal in any way with Bashar al-Assad, and, most importantly, will be the most reassuring president this country could want to deal with the new occupant of the White House. But first Juppé has to get to the Élysée. La route n’est pas encore dégagée.

I voted Juppé yesterday, being a leftist and wanting Sarkozy out. I'm glad it's done now but I'm not completely happy with a Fillon victory. He's not Trump, but probably more like other republicans that runned against him, with close ties to anti-LGBT and anti-abortion groups. Also he's pro-Russia and pro-Assad... not to mention I'm not sure he could pull it against le Pen, that really worries me.

He surged in polls in less than a week, can he keep this until may ? I have to say I really hope someone wins the centrist vote, that person probably being Macron. We might need it.
 

Joni

Member
The whole "we can't let FN win" is going to have a wrong impact again. Just like we saw with Brexit and Trump. Give people your solutions and answers, don't just point to the other side and say "they are bad". If people vote FN there is a reason for it. Tap into that reason, but with actual better solutions.

That is why there is a two round system. First round is everyone saying why their side is best. Second round is the loser saying to fall in line.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Fillon says Trump is "original" "just like Reagan", and people who criticize him are "stupid".

We are fucked.
 

Angel_DvA

Member
There is a real problem now in politics, it's more about the facts that people are voting against someone than over their policy, it's what I'm doing and it sucks, I hope people will realize we need better politics overall, people that are connected with us and not a bunch of elitist jerks that know nothing about how we live.
 
What a disgusting mainstream political landscape we have in most of Europe. As a society, we are becoming demented...

Angel_DvA...Voting is paramount in a democracy...people need to be weedled off the monopoly of mainstream parties. In the UK, press standards is a massive issue. UKIP gets more attention than the Greens, even though they are far less capable and coherent. I have seen them in quite a few debates, and they have come across as rather pathetic, but the media has given them a continuos 15 minutes of fame slot. The kicker is, being involved with a party like the Greens means being an activist as well, to a degree.
 

G.O.O.

Member
There is a real problem now in politics, it's more about the facts that people are voting against someone than over their policy, it's what I'm doing and it sucks, I hope people will realize we need better politics overall, people that are connected with us and not a bunch of elitist jerks that know nothing about how we live.
I honestly believe that voting against was always how it was meant to be. Our societies are diverse, not homogenic, so it's normal that candidates illustrate consensus.

We get in trouble when people don't want to compromise with those who don't think like them anymore...
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Good riddance to Sarkozy, but I don't find the prospect of Président Fillon to be that much better...

He's a turd, but he has presidential stature and is not anti-EU. Even if he turns out to be awful (which I expect), France will survive.

Sarko winning would have resulted in a FN victory, which would have meant the end of the European Union and France going to some really dark places.

That's how I see it anyway.
 

Simplet

Member
The whole "we can't let FN win" is going to have a wrong impact again. Just like we saw with Brexit and Trump. Give people your solutions and answers, don't just point to the other side and say "they are bad". If people vote FN there is a reason for it. Tap into that reason, but with actual better solutions.

Wrong impact again? It did the job last time. It works perfectly well in France because people take voting seriously and will get out and vote for the lesser evil like they're supposed too. It's only during stuff like European parliament elections when no one can be bothered to vote that FN gets strong results.
 
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