DiipuSurotu
Banned
aaah, never change Libé...
I always thought Fillon kinda sorta looks like Sam Beckett from "Quantum Leap" (which hurts because I love that show).
This picture reinforces this impression.
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2016 suddenly sucks a bit less as Sarkozy gets trounced in French primary
- Thread starter Funky Papa
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I always thought Fillon kinda sorta looks like Sam Beckett from "Quantum Leap" (which hurts because I love that show).
This picture reinforces this impression.
Heh, everyone on the left went to sleep happy that Sarko was out and woke up panicked because Fillon is a conservative at heart
I think it'll be *mostly* ok if he wins. Unlike Sarkozy, he's not an egotistical bully and can listen to people even if he has to weaken his position for that. Of course I still think his economic ideas are bad, but I think the same for most of the candidates.
Point is, I'll take Fillon over Trump or Brexit any day...
I think it'll be *mostly* ok if he wins. Unlike Sarkozy, he's not an egotistical bully and can listen to people even if he has to weaken his position for that. Of course I still think his economic ideas are bad, but I think the same for most of the candidates.
Point is, I'll take Fillon over Trump or Brexit any day...
That two-round system seems pretty cool, is it kind of like a "What if?" scenario that coaxes people into voting when the initial results are terrible?
Yes, pretty much. It's what happened in 2002, when the father of the current extreme right candidate reached the 2nd round:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002
The turnout increased from 71.60% in the first round to 79.71% in the second round and almost everybody else except for the voters of Le Pen (he gained like 700k more compared to 20 mio. more for Chirac) voted with Jacques Chirac.
Ether_Snake
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I don't get your point, Fn is far-right, there's so much disagreement with the left ideologies that I don't see any leftist voting for them even in a "fuck the establishment" optic.
FN is on the left on economic issues in general. If there is a scenario where FN wins this election, it will certainly be because they will go hard left on the economy and working class, while going far right on immigration and Islam. Right now with Brexit and Trump having won, and similar sentiment regarding not only Islam but anti-globalization being more alive now than ever elsewhere in Europe, they got the narrative to not look like fringe anymore, they can say they're not the crazy ones and that Fillon is a establishment-globalist-stooge.
Also, don't doubt how many leftist French are racists, and how much the socialists lost total credibility over the past few years. Those who DON'T want to vote for right-wing economic policies are going to be running out of options and are likely to either not vote or vote FN, and then you have the leftists racists who will be happy to vote for them this time.
For those who don't know:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Front_(France)#Economy
As the party gained growing support from the economically vulnerable, it converted towards politics of social welfare and economic protectionism.[179] This was part of its shift away from its former claim of being the "social, popular and national right" to its claim of being "neither right nor left – French!"[22] Increasingly, the party's program became an amalgam of free market and welfarist policies, which some political commentators have claimed are left-wing economic policies.[124][180][181]
Under her leadership, Marine Le Pen has been more clear in her support for protectionism, while she has criticised globalism and capitalism for certain industries.[182] She has been characterised as a proponent of letting the government take care of health, education, transportation, banking and energy.[177][180]
She will hammer this even further this time, no doubt at all, and it will help her a lot.
I put Le Pen's odds of winning at 55% right now, just to play it safe. Personally I think she will win. There is no more peace-and-love message to sell after the Socialists basically told their electorate to fuck off, and most people don't want more neo-liberal austerity bullshit, especially not NOW, so what will they do? They'll go for the alternative that in the end won't impact them so bad since they're mostly white anyway. Tell the "establishment" to fuck off and get a left-of-center government on the economy, win-win to most French.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
I put Le Pen's odds of winning at 55% right now, just to play it safe. Personally I think she will win. There is no more peace-and-love message to sell after the Socialists basically told their electorate to fuck off, and most people don't want more neo-liberal austerity bullshit, especially not NOW, so what will they do? They'll go for the alternative that in the end won't impact them so bad since they're mostly white anyway. Tell the "establishment" to fuck off and get a left-of-center government on the economy, win-win to most French.
Marine is as much part of the establishment as Fillon if not more. She's been in politics for more then 20 years now and is the leader of her father's party.
It's not like in the US where it was Trump's first foray into politics. She's more akin to Hillary in this case.
Ether_Snake
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Marine is as much part of the establishment as Fillon if not more. She's been in politics for more then 20 years now and is the leader of her father's party.
It's not like in the US where it was Trump's first foray into politics. She's more akin to Hillary in this case.
By your example Bernie is part of the establishment. He's not, nor is Le Pen.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
By your example Bernie is part of the establishment. He's not, nor is Le Pen.
Bernie isn't a part of a political dynasty who've created the third biggest political party of his country and are passing the power from generation to generation.
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Perception matters more than reality. A vote for Le Pen is a "fuck you" to the French political establishment in the eyes of most voters, ergo Le Pen is anti-establishment.Bernie isn't a part of a political dynasty who've created a political party and are passing the power from generation to generation.
Hollande just announced on TV he's not running for re-election. Let's see how that'll shake up the election.
Didn't expect him to be courageous enough to do that. That's good news.
DiipuSurotu
Banned
Hollande just announced on TV he's not running for re-election. Let's see how that'll shake up the election.
Good Guy Hollande
Palette Swap
Member
An election without Hollande or Sarkozy is pretty good news.
Hollande did the right thing.
Hollande did the right thing.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Is there any chance fillion and the socialist make it so le pen has no chance?
Palette Swap
Member
Five months before the election, you should assume anything can happen TBH.Is there any chance fillion and the socialist make it so le pen has no chance?
Right now, I'm not counting anyone out.
Gnome Scat
Member
Lesser of two evils I guess?
Is there any chance fillion and the socialist make it so le pen has no chance?
There's already talk of the socialists and the other political parties joining forces to block Le Pen if a right or left wing candidate along with Le Pen face off in the second round.
Also, Wikileaks, Breitbart and etc will have little to no impact on the french election.
Gurgelhals
Member
Aren't there like half a dozen left and center-left parties whose candidates will be competing in the first round while the non-Nazi right has already closed the ranks behind Fillon? If the left cannot agree on a single consensus candidate, I'd wager that a runoff between Fillon and Le Pen is pretty much a foregone conclusion already.
Gurgelhals
Member
Not really closely followed French politics, so can someone give me a brief overview of what hollande has done wrong?
Everything seemed so full of hope when he got elected
He was elected mainly by virtue of not being Nicolas fucking Sarkozy and then turned out to be a weak, indecisive and uncharismatic president whose ineffective style of government managed to piss off everybody: left voters, right voters and those in between. He's by far the most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic, afaik.
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