|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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#1


The Candidates:


Benoît Hamon (PS): Candidate of the former president party. President Hollande declined to run again after low popularity polls and high unemployment. Hamon wants a universal basic income for french citizens, Pro-EU, wants to legalize marijuana and wants to remove the controversial el khomri law. Due to the unpopularity of the current president, low approval of any candidate from this party.


François Fillon (LR): Former prime minister of France during 2007 to 2012 during Sarkozy's term. Surprise winner after expected to be placed third in primary against Former president Sarkozy and Alain Juppé


Marine Le Pen (FN): Leader of the National Front, a national conservative, similar to Trump
at being Putin's puppet
. Anti-Establishment, strong opponent of the European Union.


Emmanuel Macron (EM): Former minister of economy under Hollande during 2014-2016. He left his former party (PS) to create his own movement. Youngest candidate and Pro-EU. Criticized for yet to not have a detailed program for his campaign.


Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI): Candidate of the Far-Left Party, Also anti-Establishment


Important Dates:

29 January: 2nd round of the Social Party Primary ( Benoit Hamon vs Manuel Valls )

23 April: 1st round of the Presidential Election

7 May: 2nd round of the Presidential Election

Reminder: only top two candidates are allowed in 2nd round if none of the candidates reach 50% in first round.



Polls

Polls are variable depending who wins the PS Primary and If Center-Right Candidate François Bayrou chooses to run or not.


 
#10
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I hope we won't fail you, world; a 2nd turn with Fillon/Le Pen would be a nightmare.

Edit: Seems like Macron is quite popular on GAF. What's the reason? I wouldn't mind him winning, ultimately, but he's basically the big banks candidate, in the end...
 
#11
Edit: Seems like Macron is quite popular on GAF. What's the reason? I wouldn't mind him winning, ultimately, but he's basically the big banks candidate, in the end...
In an ideal world he wouldn't be but to me he's the only credible candidate who could save me from a Fillon/Le Pen second round so.. :/

Melénchon is just 5-6% points below Macron and yet I only see media hyping the latter. Interesting.
Well Macron probably has a broader audience than Macron. And 5-6% below Macron puts him at +-10% below Le Pen and Fillon, which is a lot.
 
#13
Melénchon is just 5-6% points below Macron and yet I only see media hyping the latter. Interesting.
Mélenchon has the same issue as Le Pen, he doesn't have a pool of new voters to seduce because of his extreme stance. He's blocked by Hamon on the left just like Le Pen is blocked by Fillon on the right. That leaves the whole center open for Macron.
 
#14
Melénchon is just 5-6% points below Macron and yet I only see media hyping the latter. Interesting.
melenchon polling is always above reality and Le pen is always under reported.
In addition Melenchon is old, not sexy and is still seen as the PCF continuation.
His electors could potentially vote Le Pen with very small change of parameter.
 
#15
Let's try to not screw it up.

Subscribed!

I hope we won't fail you, world; a 2nd turn with Fillon/Le Pen would be a nightmare.

Edit: Seems like Macron is quite popular on GAF. What's the reason? I wouldn't mind him winning, ultimately, but he's basically the big banks candidate, in the end...
He's very popular with the media in general, and my biggest fear is that he's not actually that popular with the general public and that we're in for a (bad) surprise.
 
#16
Melénchon is just 5-6% points below Macron and yet I only see media hyping the latter. Interesting.
He's popular among younger people who don't pay attention to traditional media (like younger people who support Le Pen, actually). He's one of the only candidates who makes good use of YouTube and Facebook.
 
#17
Melénchon is just 5-6% points below Macron and yet I only see media hyping the latter. Interesting.
That's because Mélénchon has probably hit a hard ceiling, especially if Hamon is chosen as the candidate for the PS today. Macron however, could get a ton of new support between moderate socialists upset about Hamon and people on the right disgusted by the Fillon scandal (he could even gain some votes from Le Pen).

Obviously it doesn't mean that all of this will materialize, but I would be really surprised if Macron doesn't at least pick up a bit more support after the PS primaries/ penelopegate.
 
#18
The Candidates:




François Fillon (LR): Former prime minister of France during 2007 to 2012 during Sarkozy's term. Surprise winner after expected to be placed third in primary against Former president Sarkozy and Alain Juppé


Marine Le Pen (FN): Leader of the National Front, a national conservative, similar to Trump
at being Putin's puppet
. Anti-Establishment, strong opponent of the European Union.
One of these two is our next president.
 
#24
I finally registered to vote on the day following Trump's election. I moved a couple of years ago and I had yet to do it. I've always been a PS voter but I might go with Macron this time, we'll see. Worst case scenario, we'll end up with Fillon. That would be bad but not nearly as bad as what happened in the UK and US. But I live in the 06 so it's going to be all Marine down here. Privileged idiots.
 
#27
Unless thre are big evidences, I don't think soo. The right electors don't care if their candidate is corrupt.
Yeah, it's not like he killed someone or got funded by a dictator (ahem). I can see his wife's job being considered as a legit (but overpayed) contract, in which case it won't change much to his candidacy. He may lose a few voices though, but not that many.

Let's hope the left can unite (Hamon + Mélanchon) to pass the first round.
No chance, they aren't really compatible and wouldn't add up their voters. Also that may not even be enough per se to reach second round.
 
#28
This election will be very depressing if we have a second turn Fillon vs Le Pen.

Unless there are big evidences, I don't think soo. The right electors don't care if their candidate is corrupt as logn as it's the LR candidate.
Since the left is also quite guilty of this(hiring relative ), they will not make too much noise about that.
Les français sont des veaux and that is not changing.
 
#29
Something that isn't quite right in the OP, some kind of misconception :

Mélenchon isn't "Candidate of the Far-Left Party". Far-Left Parties are NPA and Lutte Ouvrière, and they have opinions that fondamentally differ (anarchism vs etatism being the biggest one).
Mélenchon runs on its own (with his "movement") this time, he was part of the Socialist Party (center-left), took part in a government, for decades before creating a party that was, for him, a party at the center of the French's left. He has been closely supported by the French Communist Party in 2012 and he is supported by the same party, but remotely this time. And the French Communist Party isn't considered to be Far-Left, they are not revolutionnary anymore and they took part in national action.

Please no.

Anyone but Le Pen.

And ideally not Fillon either.

:.(
Le Pen can't be elected yet because of the electoral system. Even if she manages to go into the second round, you need to build an alliance with other parties to win the second round AND the legislative round that is 5-6 weeks after the presidential election.

Le Pen is too isolated, nobody will call to vote for her while other parties will rally the other candidate that made it to the second round, in order to prevent her from winning. That's the key to the electoral system (and something very different to other European countries or the US)

She needs the right-wing party to implode in order to have the monopoly on the right, but this can't happen in 4 months.

Plus this time around she lost her freshness because Macron is younger and does a good job at creating a nenewed social-democracy. He has the most successful campaign so far.

If she's against Fillon, that's a win for him because the left will call to vote against Le Pen.
If she's against Macron, even though Fillon doesn't call to vote against her and 1/3 of his electorate goes to her, Macron will still have all the left and the center against her.
 
#31
I think Fillon will take a hit, at least in the short term. When you go to the Figaro website and the vast majority of comments are calling the right-wing candidate a crook, you know he igt be in big trouble. Sarkozysts and Juppéists might also start jumping ship out of spite.
 
#32
does Macron have a realistic shot at making through Round 1?
Few weeks ago I would have said very unlikely but now it looks more and more possible. Fillion being in trouble will probably get him a bunch of right moderate votes, he might get a bunch of left votes as well if Hamon wins the primary tonight...but he's runnning without an established party and he's still directly associated with the Hollande presidency, also he can very well be destroyed during debates.
 
#33
That blurb about the FN and Marie Lepen is way too nice. Makes them seem like a reasonable party. Should add racism and homophobia as part of their platform.
 
#34
does Macron have a realistic shot at making through Round 1?
It's a possibility. His campaign is strong so far and he has benefited from the losses of a center-right candidate, the absence of the center candidate and now the loss of a center-left candidate. He hasn't been hit like Fillon was a few days ago (fake job of his wife after a weak post-primary campaign, he might be dead yet)

In the polls from 2-3 weeks ago he was at the same level as Le Pen or Fillon.

But 3 months is a long time period and the voters that matter will chose in the last 2 to 3 weeks. A lot can happen, he can go up to 28% or drop to 16%. Hard to say but this would make this campaign even more historical. Exciting times for political researchers.
 
#36
Fillon is also a Putin puppet.

And Macron is a clown.

Let's hope the left can unite (Hamon + Mélanchon) to pass the first round.
Mélenchon thinks Russia was justified in its annexion of Crimea, and that Assange deserves a French citizenship, so let's not pretend he isn't another Putin shill. His stances on the power in Venezuela or Cuba are also something else, and he keeps harping on the press.

That guy is no friend of freedom, I get how he can be a charismatic, sympathetic character at first, but he's an asshole.
 
#37
Mélenchon thinks Russia was justified in its annexion of Crimea, and that Assange deserves a French citizenship, so let's not pretend he isn't another Putin shill. His stances on the power in Venezuela or Cuba are also something else, and he keeps harping on the press.
He seemed to have pretty dubious views about the whole Syria situation too.
 
#38
If Bayrou gets behind Macron next month things will really start to heat up.

The big stories of today however are the left wing primary results and Fillion's latest scandal.
 
#39
Mélenchon thinks Russia was justified in its annexion of Crimea, and that Assange deserves a French citizenship, so let's not pretend he isn't another Putin shill. His stances on the power in Venezuela or Cuba are also something else, and he keeps harping on the press.

That guy is no friend of freedom, I get how he can be a charismatic, sympathetic character at first, but he's an asshole.
Well that's your opinion (if calling names is considered an opinion).

For non-French gaffers : there's been a debate since 2011/2012 about Mélenchon's ties to dictatorships (in South America in particular) that has been revived with the Syrian civil war. Some, like the "Palette Swap", believe that he is authoritarian and he's just as good as the far-right on international relations, on the side of Russia, Partner in crime ; other support him for his alternative view on these matters : less altantists and US-oriented so that France is not submissive to US-capitalism but rather at a balanced position between the big powers, not taking part in everything (and every war).

Very complex debate within the left, that can't be solved if you pronounce anathema upon someone or caricature him.
 
#40
From my point of view, Mélenchon is as much of a danger as Le Pen. As long as neither of those two is elected, it'll be fine. Sure I'd be concerned with Hamon's economic decisions/Valls' social ones, Fillon's conservatism or Macron's uncertainties, but it's stuff that can be dealt with.
 
#41
From my point of view, Mélenchon is as much of a danger as Le Pen. As long as neither of those two is elected, it'll be fine. Sure I'd be concerned with Hamon's economic decisions/Valls' social ones, Fillon's conservatism or Macron's uncertainties, but it's stuff that can be dealt with.
Pretty much
 
#46
The party's n°2 leader is openly gay.
Yes for the moment the FN is not openly homophobic. There is a "progressive" branch lead by Philippot, but there is a strong regressive branch lead by Marion Marechal Le Pen. And since it's Marion who will inherit the party (it's a familiy business), in few years the party will probably go full homophobia and racism.
 
#48
From my point of view, Mélenchon is as much of a danger as Le Pen. As long as neither of those two is elected, it'll be fine. Sure I'd be concerned with Hamon's economic decisions/Valls' social ones, Fillon's conservatism or Macron's uncertainties, but it's stuff that can be dealt with.
The danger with Mélenchon is not even him winning (it would be fucking scary, but there is zero chance of it happening), it's that he is the only candidate who could somehow get Le Pen to win a second round.

Even in the first round, Mélenchon getting stronger is good for Le Pen, because he peddles roughly the same "revolutionary" "anti-elitist" mantra, and a large part of his supporters would probably go over to Le Pen against a "mainstream" candidate.
 

MMarston

Was getting caught part of your plan?
#50
Dear France,


dontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitupdontfuckitup
 
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