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After all the fun, what do people think MS will actually do about online on NextBox?

Boss Man

Member
The joke is how many combinations of circumstances the Network Troubleshooter will be useless for. ISP having authentication issues or DNS issues? Useless. Microsoft having problems with Live? Useless. Connectivity issues between your ISP and Microsoft? Useless. I mean you were just connected and it dropped out, what is there even to troubleshoot? So stupid, beyond belief really.
What if you forgot to keep your router plugged in though?
 

Dead Man

Member
I cover the digital entertainment space for my job at a hedge fund and I've also been a gamer for a very long time before that. My initial thoughts on yesterday's twitter PR debacle are that I'm now very, very interested to see the business model behind the next xbox. If MSFT are doing nothing more than making an always online console and selling it and its games using a conventional distribution model then you might as well give up on getting a PS4 this year ... because everybody and their aunt will want one. I do however have a theory about what MSFT is upto if anybody's interested - this is just some triangulation on my part and not based on any confirmed information I have heard.

What if the next "XBox" is actually a family of streaming devices? There could be a basic TV streaming box, a combination of the basic streaming box and the 360 hardware and a flagship combination of the streaming box and "next generation" hardware at different price brackets. Publishers are media distribution channels just like Netflix, Amazon and Spotify. People could pay an annual subscription (say $80) per big publisher like EA, Ubisoft, Activision and MSFT to access all games released by the publisher in a given year (Smaller publishers could have different packages). Customers would also have to pay a nominal amount (say $5 - $10) per title within its first year of sale (they go f2p after) with the game itself being digital download or physical download via blue ray (just like Netflix lets you borrow discs for a small extra fee). This sort of operation would obviously require a internet connection at all times because customers wouldn't "own" games, just the rights to access them via a xBox. This sort of business model doesn't perclude the $60 ownership model currently in place which could run in parallel for people who don't want to move to a subscription based gaming ecosystem. I've run the numbers and it could work fairly well with enough users. Its also the sort of thing that could take competitors like Sony time to copy because though the tech is pretty easy, the licensing deals with publishers will take time to negotiate.

Interesting. I think that would be very difficult to manage in non-US markets in terms of rights management. International media distribution rights are an absolute clusterfuck.

I just think there is a distinction between an "always on" device and having an internet connection required for the device to function. The latter seems to be what people all the rumors are hinting at but that just seems like market suicide.

I mean I'm sure MS has been tracking all of this and maybe it's worth it to them to go this route cause it allows them to more heavily monetize their core consumers. They will do it through some combination of ads, higher profit margin digital distribution, DRM and piracy protection, the possible elimination of used games, and knowing they can microtransaction the fuck out of every game if everyone is required to be connected, more games as a service. They've got numbers on how many 360s are connected to Live and how many 360s they've sold so it's a calculated risk on their part if the rumors are even true.

My whole gripe with it is that all these decisions just seem very anti-consumer. I mean it's bad enough that I wouldn't be able to loan games to friends or rent games or trade in shitty or mediocre games but they could go as far as to bind a game to an account meaning multiple people playing on the same hardware will each need a copy to play. I mean MMOs already do this, so I could easily see something like Destiny doing this. I could see them effectively trying to kill split screen co-op. With Sony making so many gamer and developer focused decisions and on the other hand MS silence and these rumors snowballing I just don't know what to think. I know if my internet went out and I couldn't access my games I would be pissed but I can't believe they'd take it that far for games where the internet isn't a requirement. They just seems like a dumb decisions to me to spite so many people who buy used games or aren't connected to the internet or gamers who just don't want platform holders to exert so much control of their games.


I mean the only potential positive I see about this is for Live to become more like Steam with variable pricing and sales and free weekends. Sure they might serve me ads but I'd put up with all that for good games at great prices. If they can hook you into a Live subscription plan or pair it as a cable box/DVR as an upgrade for your existing service and get the console or sell it for like $199 with a two year contract for Live at like $15 a month that's something that might get me to put up with the always online bullshit.

Then again MS hasn't revealed anything yet so its still just snowballing rumors. When they do their unveil shit is gonna be bananas! Can't wait! I'm excited!

Yeah, there are certainly a lot of ways to implement a requirement for an internet connection, but none of them seem to offer and real advantage for consumers given it would still be a closed system.
 

Deadstar

Member
Stranger things have happened in gaming.

image.php


On a serious note, the always online is bad...but what's worse is that microsoft will be watching you with kinect 24/7 always online.
 
Interesting. I think that would be very difficult to manage in non-US markets in terms of rights management. International media distribution rights are an absolute clusterfuck.

True ... but in their (by far) most important markets (NA and the UK) this would be a cinch. They'd still have the current retail model for markets where the new model would take some time to get right.
 

jtb

Banned
At first I thought it would always be online, but I really don't see the point. DRM? Piracy isn't that big of a problem on consoles is it? Cutting out used games, but couldn't you just do some code activation stuff like with PC games and current trends w/ map packs and the rest?

I just don't see what Microsoft stands to gain by this. (obviously the consumer is basically fucked either way) Especially when most people leave their consoles connected anyways, so stuff like ads—Microsoft already has gamers by the balls with that. Why go the extra step and make it mandatory?

But having said that, this seems pretty likely at this point.
 

D3VI0US

Member
Yeah, there are certainly a lot of ways to implement a requirement for an internet connection, but none of them seem to offer and real advantage for consumers given it would still be a closed system.

The only possible advantage I see is a variable pricing model like Steam but I don't see why a console would have to be always online to implement something like that so it's still kind of bullshit.
 

Boss Man

Member
At first I thought it would always be online, but I really don't see the point. DRM? Piracy isn't that big of a problem on consoles is it? Cutting out used games, but couldn't you just do some code activation stuff like with PC games and current trends w/ map packs and the rest?

I just don't see what Microsoft stands to gain by this. (obviously the consumer is basically fucked either way) Especially when most people leave their consoles connected anyways, so stuff like ads—Microsoft already has gamers by the balls with that. Why go the extra step and make it mandatory?

But having said that, this seems pretty likely at this point.
All I can think is that maybe they're getting some exclusive third parties on board, or that it might have something to do with data collection for ads and the like. I think we're not seeing the whole picture though, because you're right it doesn't really make sense for them to do it on the system level. There's also the whole TV thing and applications focus that we've heard is a thing but have no idea about. It could have something to do with those things too.
 

Rolf NB

Member
They'll do what they always do. Spend a few million to sponsor Tweeters, Bloggers, dine the press, distribute their talking points to forumers etc. Before long there will be what longs like a genuine debate. In a few months you'll get the impression that "you hear from many people" that always-online is not so bad. By the end of the year you'll get the impression that "many people" might even find it to be a good thing.

http://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar12/financial-review/income-statements/index.html

Microsoft is a 14 Billion $ marketing operation. Pitching their terrible decisions as something acceptable, maybe even good, is Microsoft's core business.

In the last 12 months, they spent >2$ for every person living on earth on marketing alone. And they do this every year. Where do you seriously think this money ends up, newspaper ads?
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
They've gotten arrogant, like Sony did after the PS2.

They'll do whatever they want, figuring that for some reason people won't switch, and it'll bite them in the ass for upwards of half the generation.
 

LukeTim

Member
They've gotten arrogant, like Sony did after the PS2.

They'll do whatever they want, figuring that for some reason people won't switch, and it'll bite them in the ass for upwards of half the generation.

I think this is probably the case too, but they've no right to be arrogant with the incompetent shit they've been pulling the past few years.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
My honest opinion?

The Next Xbox will always be connected. Meaning that as long as you have an internet connection, it'll constantly check for patches for your game in real-time, it'll update your status on your game in a feed type system, screen shots you take will automatically be uploaded and shared if desired, you'll get updates from friends in real-time, etc etc.

You will NOT need an internet connection to play a game.
 
MS have never done anything in the interests of the consumer.

That's why they have become the behemoth that they are.

If it's always online in any capacity then I don't care how stringent it is because I will not be purchasing the system.

It really is that simple.
 

surly

Banned
They've gotten arrogant, like Sony did after the PS2.

They'll do whatever they want, figuring that for some reason people won't switch, and it'll bite them in the ass for upwards of half the generation.
It's fair enough to speculate and what have you, but I can't believe that there are so many closed-minded people on this forum.

MS have not said a word about Durango. Not a thing. Yet they have become as arrogant as Sony, will do what they want, and Durango will fail?
 

paully

Banned
I've never seen so much stigma directed towards a console that hasn't been announced yet. Microsoft better blow us away at E3.
 

Alx

Member
I have no real opinion whether MS will or will not have that "always online" feature (we'll know soon enough), but I'm sure they're thinking about it, and they're not the only ones.
It's an interesting scenario, considering the way technology and society evolves. To get into more details about the problems linked to such systems :
- internet availability : it's true not everybody has access to internet today, but it's becoming an exception, especially with mobile phones being closest to 100% penetration. Assuming people have access to internet is not a big gamble today, even a smaller one than MS did with broadband requirements in 2000.
- internet reliability (on the user's side) : I don't think it's a big problem either. I think most people have a stable enough connection, and it will only get better with time. Of course there are times when your provider is down, but it's something that should be rare. Maybe a few hours downtime a year (most online services use 0.1% downtime as reference).
- server reliability (on MS's side) : that's the more sensitive problem. It's also one that depends a lot on how MS designed their network. XBL has been overwhelmed from time to time by access peaks, but it was also sized for a specific use. If "always online" is a feature on all consoles, MS will need to set up a network that can handle a permanent load with all users connected. It could even be a separate network than that for multiplayer or content distribution, so there wouldn't be many peaks of activity like for big game releases. There will be important moments though, like during Christmas seasons when the number of connected users will see a step up.
 

Alx

Member
How can you be so sure?

That people have a stable enough connection (for always on features) : because you don't need high bandwidth or low ping for that. Even a dial-up should be enough to send your authentication and receive an answer within 3 minutes.
That it will get better with time : because that's how technology evolves. Half of the US population has a smarphone today. And I suppose that close to 100% of potential buyers of a next gen console have one.
 
Even crazy-expensive networked software like the AutoCAD family has the ability to work offline, and it costs many times what a new Xbox and library of games will cost.

I'm sure most of Microsoft's profits are in enterprise licensing. I just can't see them being dumb enough to do this... at least not yet.

Even if used games didn't work (they'll work, surely), screw them if they think I'm going to support an online-only console.
 

Bowler

Member
after the shitstorm passes... I'm sure they have reconsidered this always on connection. They may even tout the console never had this in the first place. (bullshit us)
 
That people have a stable enough connection (for always on features) : because you don't need high bandwidth or low ping for that. Even a dial-up should be enough to send your authentication and receive an answer within 3 minutes.
That it will get better with time : because that's how technology evolves. Half of the US population has a smarphone today. And I suppose that close to 100% of potential buyers of a next gen console have one.

I don't doubt that, but you're underestimating the likelihood of the internet getting spotty and simply disconnecting for a few minutes. Those instances are not rare.
 

Alx

Member
That's why there is a timeout in those systems (a 10 min one for the current GoD on xbox live, and the rumors mention a 3 min one for next gen). Even with frequent disconnections, you only need a few (milli)seconds here and there to keep your session active.
 

saunderez

Member
How can you be so sure?
I know for a fact that here in Australia, if you're on DSL things are getting worse on a daily basis because of copper degradation. If our new fibre network isn't completed (and it looks like it won't be) things are going to get worse over the next 10 years, not better. So yeah I'm totally agreeing with you.
 
That's why there is a timeout in those systems (a 10 min one for the current GoD on xbox live, and the rumors mention a 3 min one for next gen). Even with frequent disconnections, you only need a few (milli)seconds here and there to keep your session active.

You're putting too much faith in it, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.
I know for a fact that here in Australia, if you're on DSL things are getting worse on a daily basis because of copper degradation. If our new fibre network isn't completed (and it looks like it won't be) things are going to get worse over the next 10 years, not better. So yeah I'm totally agreeing with you.

Yeah, people think of the internet and how abundant it is and think that is no problem really. They never think about some ISPs, unlike theirs perhaps, that provide a shitty service and can drastically change their experience compared to yours
 

Feindflug

Member
Lower rumored specs than the competition and always online... If true... They have lost me as a customer.

This isn't a gamer issue, or a mainstream issue... It's a fucking common sense issue.

I don't care who it is, do not support a anti-consumer console. There is no benefit for the end user.

I personally don't give a crap about lower specs but if the always online rumor turns out true then I'm not spending a single euro on Durango even if it has the most crazy exclusives and features, am I willing to miss on amazing games? I'm saying yes with certainty...I'm not gonna support such BS with my money, plain and simple.

Some guys are saying the MS can't be THAT stupid, I can see why they're saying this but this rumor just refuses to die and that's getting really really worrying so let's hope Durango won't turn an anti-consumerist piece of turd and it will actually be a competent product, after all competition is good for us.
 

Ushojax

Should probably not trust the 7-11 security cameras quite so much
1. Always online
2. You can install games and no longer need to insert the disc
3. Activation codes required the first time you start a game
 
Which is why I corrected what I meant in my following post. You can have internet, but it will almost never be reliable, unless you live in an urban area of course.

Which is why all the complaints coming from GAF are near sighted.

MS is positioning the console for the future when networks will be more reliable and widespread.

In 3-4 years this will be commonplace for all games on PC, 720 and PS4 whether people here like it or not.

Welcome to next gen.
 
I'd be mighty surprised if they back down from always-online. Sure some people may complain about it now, and even be driven away, but MS is thinking long-term. Just think of all the kids out there who might have this as their first system - they'll see always-online as the norm, and MS can proceed from there as an anti-consumer starting point. Add to that the guys who will just buy their system as a CoD machine and they'll be always online anyway. And of course, the guys who complain about always-online but then buy the system anyway, possibly to buy EA games they complain about.

I'm by no means in favour of always online systems, but I have little faith that they'll be more pro-consumer.
 

L1NETT

Member
The wealth of rumours, and their refusal yesterday to deny it, have given me a sinking feeling that they might carry it out.

If that does happen, no PGR5 or Alan Wake 2 will convince me to buy it.

That said, I really hope they aren't carrying it out and the rumours are wrong. One can hope.
 
Which is why all the complaints coming from GAF are near sighted.

MS is positioning the console for the future when networks will be more reliable and widespread.

In 3-4 years this will be commonplace for all games on PC, 720 and PS4 whether people here like it or not.

Welcome to next gen.

Once again, how can you be so sure? How will networks, in America nonetheless, be more reliable in 3 years?
 

Coxy

Member
Which is why all the complaints coming from GAF are near sighted.

MS is positioning the console for the future when networks will be more reliable and widespread.

In 3-4 years this will be commonplace for all games on PC, 720 and PS4 whether people here like it or not.

Welcome to next gen.

if that was actually happening in 3-4 years, which it isnt, they would need to be launching the console in 3-4 years, which they arent and would need to be system wide on ps4/pc, which it isnt
 
"But you don't get it, Microsoft is the one that will innovate the entire industry!"


EDIT: Btw, I still think they're not gonna do it.

It's gonna be at least 'up to the publishers' which is almost as bad, that's what Sony is gonna do anyway and MS will have at least the same mechanism in place. As if they didn't already sat down with big publishers to talk about this stuff...

So you will only have 1st party studios (in case of MS maybe not even those) and some sane 3rd parties (again, in worst case for MS not even those) giving you offline play capabilities. That's the sad future as they have to appeal to EA and the likes to get their games published so consoles get sold.

And all this nicely wrapped up in the now widespread lie of 'for social stuff'
 

Yagharek

Member
At this point I hope they do online only.

Hubris on this scale requires a strong lesson be learned. They won't get the message until it impacts their financial results.
 

linkboy

Member
after the shitstorm passes... I'm sure they have reconsidered this always on connection. They may even tout the console never had this in the first place. (bullshit us)

I doubt it, they stuck to their guns with Windows 8, despite the constant bitching and the fact that the OS isn't selling that great.

If MS has an agenda with the next Xbox, they're going to stick to their guns on it.
 

george_us

Member
At this point I hope they do online only.

Hubris on this scale requires a strong lesson be learned. They won't get the message until it impacts their financial results.
I hope they actually block used games. Then I can be absolutely sure the Next Box will be an unmitigated disaster. Always online is going to suck but I don't think it would deter people from buying it.

No used games though? Hooooboy.
 
Surely they'd change the Silver/Gold subscription types if it were an 'only online' system?
They couldn't possibly charge for online multi-player (thus locking it away from Silver members) on a system that will only work when online?

MS: 'Silver members must be connected to the internet at all times, if a connection is dropped, after 3 minutes the troubleshooter will launch. However, to play your game online you must pay for Gold membership.'

This basically serves no benefit at all, not to mention the current method of locking apps behind Gold as well. It makes me think they'll drop the distinction between memberships and introduce something completely new, but the question is, will they charge for it?
 

Into

Member
I believe where there is smoke, there is a fire. EDGE was right on every point bar the PS3 ram, and many developers were even surprised that Sony bumped that 4 gig to 8 gig. They are also one of, if not the most trustworthy gaming publications out there and they were certain of their sources. Others have also said the same thing

Other major western publishers have all gone online only or will do so in the future, Acti Blizzard did it with Diablo 3, EA did it with Sim City and Ubisoft has said they will do with AC4 and Watch Dogs. The benefits to keeping your games online only are too advantageous to the publisher to not attempt it, despite not offering anything to the consumer, and in infact making it a worse experience on them as seen by the Diablo 3 and Sim City debacles that did nothing but harm the experience for the consumer.

EA seems hell bent on this and for that reason i do believe that perhaps them and MS are in bed together, they both share the same ideas surrounding this.

I do not believe Sony will follow suit, not because Sony is some company that treats their customers better or anything (they are all the same, Nintendo, Sony and MS) but Sony will not entertain this idea simply because of Japan, where the infrastructure is not there for this, nor do they dare try to attack the used game market which is massive in Japan.


Always online, if you disconnect you are out. You might be allowed to watch DVD movies with a Xbox 720 offline or some very basic things, but games, services and everything else will be tied to their servers.

And i do not believe that MS expects the 720 to sell 75+ million consoles, i am fully confident they know this will not appeal to everyone and many will reject a always online console, if nothing else out of necessity but i bet they rather want 40 million always online consumers watching ads and buying DLC than 80 million who are all over the place. They have surely calculated this and made up their minds

And i do not believe it will work out as well as they think it will, this is perhaps the biggest mistake any console maker has made, right up there with 599, carts and Sega Saturns sudden launch. They already had no chance in Japan with such a console they literally should not even launch there, waste of money. Europe will lean heavily to Sony and US is a giant question mark, even with exclusive dlc to CoD or whatever, the infrastructure in the US is just not there to make this work for everyone.

Basically this gen Sony messed up and the other 2 benefited, this gen Nintendo seems half asleep while adding bloom to a Wind Waker remake and MS is trying to one-up the 599 mistake Sony made, so as long as they do not screw up they should have WW with relative ease.

If MS does this, they will not end up with the largest marketshare WW, only if they are lucky they may get it in the US but even that is a giant ???.

They did something crazy before, when they added a subscription to their online service, this was (and still is) considered absolute nuts. But it worked, mainly because their Live service was light years ahead of everyone else on consoles: they had something nobody else had and thus it worked

This time around i do not believe they have anything to justify forcing people always-online, thus it will fail spectacularly

I hope they do not go with this, as i do want to buy their next Xbox as i have enjoyed OG Xbox and my 360 quite a lot
 
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