Support NeoGAF

[sonycowboy]

I think it's a mistake to take GAF's anecdotal evidence even remotely seriously. December will be interesting from the Wii/PS3 perspective of, how many did they get out there?

I actually think January NPD will be more interesting from a supply/demand situation, and for judging future sales.

But, it'll be fun trying for many folks

If there are zero units on retail shelves at the end of the month (regardless of if they were there for minutes/hours/days in-between), all you can say is that they sold every unit that was put out there. The NPD couldn't possibly be any higher for either system and thus it will not given any special insight into if the PS3 interest is lagging.

You can certainly analyze how well Sony or Nintendo did in meeting shipment targets, but the anecdotal evidence of a few that seems to contradict ~most reports seems to me to put a whole lot of trust in folks who may or may not have an agenda. On both sides of the fence.

However, I do think that when the actual numbers come out, we'll all be surprised because the disparity in assumptions I've seen on GAF the past several weeks are as large as I've ever seen and it basically underlines that nobody has a freaking clue what to honestly expect. (Not that someone won't guess right, as there's only so many possible numbers out there for each system).

 

[Odysseus]

I keep thinking of January 2002 sales. The Cube had a great launch with over 1.2m sold in Nov/Dec. January it crashed to 61k. So I'm interested in whether the Wii will keep up good momentum after the holidays.

It won't.

 

[soundwave05]

The formula for Nintendo that's been money is

Traditional Game + Non-Traditional Game released in close tandem.

See: Nintendogs + Mario Kart DS, Brain Age + New Super Mario Bros., and now Zelda + Wii Sports. This combo just works like a charm for Nintendo.

So if they can continue that in 2007 and keep their price affordable, I think they'll continue to do well. GameCube never really had that whole dynamic of being able to reach out to other consumers.

Wii Music + Super Paper Mario (Q2)
Wii Fitness + Metroid Prime 3 (Q3)
Wii Sports 2 or Wii Motor Sports + Mario Galaxy/Smash Bros. Brawl (Q4)

That's the ticket for Nintendo I think. If they can hit that one two punch, they'll find their own audience. It's not about matching MS/Sony anymore, it's about doing what makes sense for your own brand and audience. Since it looks like MS won't be able to drop their price for a while either, Nintendo can drop whenever they want to if they really feel they need a sales boost.

The SNES, N64, and GameCube all got price cuts their first spring in North America IIRC. New colors (black) could arrive right around that time also.

 

[Nameless]

I don't know. I Just left Gamestop trying to unload some x-mas cash, and the clerk was letting everyone know that they had two PS3s in stock.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I don't know. I Just left Gamestop trying to unload some x-mas cash, and the clerk was letting everyone know that they had two PS2s in stock.

So that's where they've been hiding them! I wanna play Driver 2, damn it!

 

[Diablos]

I just saw some 60GB's sitting in the store.

 

[Nameless]

So that's where they've been hiding them! I wanna play Driver 2, damn it!

Meant PS3, of course. There were about 15-20 people crammed into the store, though only two or three guys were considering buying one. You can tell that one of the guys was one of those uber-casuals, trying to to figure out if he could still make some money selling it or not.

I had $700 on me and didn't consider it for a second. If I can walk into the busiest GS in town 3:30pm the day after Christmas and find one, I figure come March or April it shouldn't take much effort at all.

Apparently that GS had gotten 6 units in this morning..So for those who want one, today may be a good day to hunt one down.

 

[Slurpy]

It won't.

Prepare to eat some crow. Or alot.

Imagine how many people were exposed to the wii this Holiday season. Imagine how many people will want it. Word of mouth is still spreading quickly. And the demand is still far outstripping supply. You could have chosen a safer prediction.

 

[Armitage]

I've seen both PS3s and Wiis in stores. I think people see a stack of newly put out systems and assume they've been there for days.

 

[Odysseus]

Prepare to eat some crow. Or alot.

Imagine how many people were exposed to the wii this Holiday season. Imagine how many people will want it. Word of mouth is still spreading quickly. And the demand is still far outstripping supply. You could have chosen a safer prediction.

For what it's worth, I promise not to laugh the first month Wii dips below 100K on NPD.

 

[soundwave05]

Even if it does dip under 100k for say January that isn't the end of the world.

Every system goes through a soft month here and there. As long as Nintendo can couple their usual "blockbuster" type titles like SSB and Mario Galaxy with non-traditional games like Wii Music, Wii Motor Sports, Wii Fitness, etc. ... I think that's a combo that will work out well for them in the long run.

The GameCube only got like SIX releases from Nintendo total in 2002 too, that didn't help. The Wii should have no problem doubling up on that at least.

As for the shortage issue I think stock of both machines will be a lot easier to find by Feburary.

 

[Cauliflower of Love]

Prepare to eat some crow. Or alot.

Imagine how many people were exposed to the wii this Holiday season. Imagine how many people will want it. Word of mouth is still spreading quickly. And the demand is still far outstripping supply. You could have chosen a safer prediction.

Holidays are a magical time where people throw caution to the wind and spend all the money they don't have on frivolous things.

January is the time when they realize they ****ed up and now have no money for anything.

 

[ksamedi]

For what it's worth, I promise not to laugh the first month Wii dips below 100K on NPD.

I think you are underestimating Wii sports, its bigger than Zelda and ive seen what it can do, all my gaming and nongaming friend are gonna buy the Wii because of this game.

 

[Tieno]

I think you are underestimating Wii sports, its bigger than Zelda and ive seen what it can do, all my gaming and nongaming friend are gonna buy the Wii because of this game.

Wow, it'll sell millions!

 

[davepoobond]

Wow, it'll sell millions!

but all of his friends said they would. ALL of them. because if you're not a gaming friend, you're a nongaming friend. and that's 100% of his friends right there. all of them will get them, because they said they would.

 

[Slurpy]

For what it's worth, I promise not to laugh the first month Wii dips below 100K on NPD.

And I promise to do the same when it doesnt.

Wait, actually I dont promise. I will laugh at you.

 

[threeball]

It won't.

amazing reasoning and evidence there to back up that statement. you would be perfect for CNN

anyway, doing my shopping the past 2-3 days I saw plenty of PS3s in stock(especially a stack of 12 or so at Fry's being guarded by a few employees which everyone ignored) and 2 at a gamestop in the mall and another 3 at a wal-mart. i didnt see a wii at all or a remote/nunchuck/classic controller

 

[xaosslug]

You were drawn to this thread like a moth to a f'n flame.

his love is blind, can't you see his desire?

 

[Branduil]

Amazing how confident some people are that the Wii will stop selling.

 

[neojubei]

How indeed.

Perhaps some industrious GAF'ers can provide photographic evidence in this indeterminate situation? With a little sign saying "See GAF'ers" . There's a stack of PS3's yay high at Best Buy being ignored like a junior GAFer on prom night.

I second. If you are going to post that the ps3 isnt selling and on store shelves please provide proof. I have been looking for one for my friend for a while now and i seem to cannot find one.

 

[davepoobond]

amazing reasoning and evidence there to back up that statement. you would be perfect for CNN

anyway, doing my shopping the past 2-3 days I saw plenty of PS3s in stock(especially a stack of 12 or so at Fry's being guarded by a few employees which everyone ignored) and 2 at a gamestop in the mall and another 3 at a wal-mart. i didnt see a wii at all or a remote/nunchuck/classic controller

ps3 is doomed because there's product on the shelves

wii is doomed because there's no product on the shelves

 

[Rorschach]

How is PS3 shortage lasting for months when some people on the Internet are finding them on shelves easily

Pfft...that's what they say, but when I ask them where I can just walk in a store and pick one up, they go blank. Easily my ass!

 

[threeball]

I second. If you are going to post that the ps3 isnt selling and on store shelves please provide proof. I have been looking for one for my friend for a while now and i seem to cannot find one.

i know i am telling the truth, though isn't it against the rules of some stores to not be able to take pictures in there without consent?

at fry's there was a fry's van outside the store with "PS3 60GB SYSTEM IN STOCK" written on all the windowns. i went to the video game section and saw an employee or two standing infront of a stack of 60GB systems. there were 12 or so. i think you had to get it in a bundle though

at gamestop the two ps3's were behind the counter high on a shelf. 2 of them.

at wal-mart they were under the glass. 3 of them.

i am heading to fry's tonight to get elebits. if the van is still there i will take a pic.

 

[Jammy]

If Nintendo misses their Wii goal of four million worldwide by the end of the year, I think they can still do the six million by March '07 that they were planning.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

ps3 is doomed because there's product on the shelves

wii is doomed because there's no product on the shelves

logical discourse is doomed because of these kinds of attempts to jacknife any hope of legitimate discussion by posting the most extreme and unlikely scenario instead of adding something worthwhile to the discussion

usually involving the word "doomed"

 

[Oblivion]

Nintendo really needs to keep the momentum going. It's gonna be a bit more difficult if their A list games get delayed to Fall/Winter.

 

[xaosslug]

For what it's worth, I promise not to laugh the first month Wii dips below 100K on NPD.

OK, you promised, now you have to keep your word!

 

[Mrbob]

PS3 still sold out.

Thanks again GAF.

 

[fortified_concept]

How indeed.

Perhaps some industrious GAF'ers can provide photographic evidence in this indeterminate situation? With a little sign saying "See GAF'ers" . There's a stack of PS3's yay high at Best Buy being ignored like a junior GAFer on prom night.

Be careful of what you're asking. There are definately a couple of people here that could camp out of a store to take of a pic of newly arrived PS3s just to proove us wrong. If they freeze to death it'll be your fault.

 

[GhaleonEB]

OK, you promised, now you have to keep your word!

Wii 95k

hahahahahahahaha

 

[AdmiralViscen]

People seriously think a console that was massively supply constrained in Nov and Dec will fall below 100k in January? Even if Wii slows down at some point in next year (which is very likely, but far from certain if the Wii Sports thing really grips the mainstream), it won't be in ****ing January. Not before March or so.

 

[Odysseus]

You besmirch my honor and my good name. I challenge you to a duel.

(I never said January, by the way.)

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I don't know which GAF claim to believe less;

Wii's will magically stop selling January 1st or PS3's are collecting dust on shelves.

 

[soundwave05]

I don't know which GAF claim to believe less;

Wii's will magically stop selling January 1st or PS3's are collecting dust on shelves.

Pretty much. Christmas is over, but if Nintendo shipped a bunch of Wiis right now, I don't think anyone would debate that shipment would sell out in short order.

But come Jan. 1st, somehow, magically this is all going to change?

Nintendo never does huge numbers in Jan/Feb, but the fact is the Wii is only system on the market with that type of controller (and games that utilize it), and it's the only new system under the $299.99 mark (apparently the 360 Core pack doesn't sell for whatever reason according to XBots).

 

[LJ11]

I just came back from TRU, I was trying to get in on some of the 9.99 games. While I was there I saw a Wii, I asked if they had any in stock. She said just that last one, someone returned it earlier in the day.

People are returning their Wiis...it has begun. :lol

 

[elostyle]

For what it's worth, I promise not to laugh the first month Wii dips below 100K on NPD.

Did you laugh when the DS hit 54k? I wonder if any other system ever rebounded like that before..

 

[Saoh]

I just came back from TRU, I was trying to get in on some of the 9.99 games. While I was there I saw a Wii, I asked if they had any in stock. She said just that last one, someone returned it earlier in the day.

People are returning their Wiis...it has begun. :lol

they'll go 3rd party by March.

 

[LJ11]

they'll go 3rd party by March.

Zelda on 360 confirmed.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Okay, just a little of my own evidence.

Target near me had printed signs up all over the electronics department stating they had no Wii's, and dont know when they are getting more, and had PS3s it the case.

Shortage for PS3? Not here anyway.

 

[LJ11]

Okay, just a little of my own evidence.

Target near me had printed signs up all over the electronics department stating they had no Wii's, and dont know when they are getting more, and had PS3s it the case.

Shortage for PS3? Not here anyway.

I'm just curious, but how many did they have in stock?

 

[elostyle]

Someone should just bite the bullet and call like 50 stores in different states :lol

 

[neojubei]

Someone should just bite the bullet and call like 50 stores in different states :lol

please do. Because I must be calling and going to the wrong stores for a ps3. I even tried looking for a DS lite and could not find one in about 5 stores. I did however see tons of xbox 360s and 4 gamecubes in one circuit city. I almost bought a gamecube, almost.

 

[neojubei]

I just came back from TRU, I was trying to get in on some of the 9.99 games. While I was there I saw a Wii, I asked if they had any in stock. She said just that last one, someone returned it earlier in the day.

People are returning their Wiis...it has begun. :lol

WHAT~!~~~~~~~~!~~!!~~!~~ someone cue faith hill "what"


It would my lucky day to find a Wii like that. damn.

 

[GhaleonEB]

You besmirch my honor and my good name. I challenge you to a duel.

(I never said January, by the way.)

That was a hypothetical example.

(the month, not your reaction)

 

[Terrell]

Amazing how confident some people are that the Wii will stop selling.

No it's not, this is GAF, the last bastion of self-inflicted retardation.

If Nintendo misses their Wii goal of four million worldwide by the end of the year, I think they can still do the six million by March '07 that they were planning.

Well, just based on the totals that Nintendo, Chart-Track, GfK and Media Create have provided, they sold 1.3 million consoles worldwide at each respective launch as of December 11, not including follow-up numbers. I'm sure that they could squeeze out 2.7 million more across 4 continents by the end of the year, now that each region has it for sale, or at least get close enough to still have their launch deemed respectable.

 

[PC Gaijin]

Frys here in Garland, Texas has had PS3s in stock every time I went (granted, I only went twice this month). Maybe I just got extremely lucky and went exactly as they got them in stock. Or maybe their bundling has scared any potential buyers off. I've never seen a Wii in stock anywhere.

 

[Odysseus]

That was a hypothetical example.

(the month, not your reaction)

Ghaleon predicts 95K Wiis sold in January. Confirmed.

Ninfans, direct all your vitriol towards him.

 

[PistolGrip]

Seeing how PS3s past 500k weeks ago I doubt this shortage will last until June. Just like most analyst: "It rained today, I'll predict it will rain tomorrow"

 

[soundwave05]

The only systems I see consistently in stock at just about any retailer are 360s (piles of them), PSTwos, and GBAs.

You probably can find a PS3, but not in huge quantities and probably would have to call around if you really wanted one.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Ghaleon predicts 95K Wiis sold in January. Confirmed.

Ninfans, direct all your vitriol towards him.

My wikipedia page is going to be vandalized, oh teh nos.

for the record, I'm not predicting squat. The early Wii and PS3 sales are way too hard to call for me.