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Any reason why Sega hasn't made shenmue 3 yet?

One thing I don't understand is the lack of interest argument. I get that the game wouldn't be super cheap to make, but they could always gauge interest in the series first by throwing parts I and II on PSN/Live at least. Guess they can't be bothered.
 
I dunno why people think it would be too expensive, all in all the released games were limited faux sandbox linear adventure games with combat. They only cost so much because of mismanagement, having made the games twice (for the Saturn and Dreamcast), and because it was the first time they were pushing detailed 3D worlds to that degree. I suppose if you expect Shenmue III to be a real life revenge simulator with a non linear Deus Ex style storyline, full cities and then some to explore, etc, it would indeed be too expensive. Personally I'd be content with a game of the same scope as Shenmue and II, just updated with better graphics, better combat, new clues to discover and leads to follow. Still, they have no reason to do it.

Also, it's not true it would be hard for newcomers, all it would need is an intro explaining the murder of his father and a brief rundown of discovering who the murderer is and where he has to go to find him, then have the gameplay pick up where Shenmue II ends, the ending was an intro to a new part anyway, completely ditching all that came to pass before and starting with an all new area and character(s) from scratch. Though I'm sure we're meant to meet some of the old characters again it's not a problem, it's not like we get to know everyone in Shenmue from scratch, Fuku-san was already Ryo's friend etc, it wasn't bad to feel he's a character that existed before the game, it'd be similar for new players meeting people Ryo already knows.
 
TheSpoiler said:
An established series would be outsold by a series that only the cult following would buy.

Makes sense.
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So you're suggesting that only those who had previously played the game would buy it?

If a game is good, people will buy it. Shenmue I & II were excellent, but were unfortunate enough to launch exclusively on hardware with small install bases.
 
Backflip said:
I'll post it again since it looks like some of you just want to troll without reading what other people have to say: Shenmue I sold over 1.2 million copies on a failed console alone.

I'm sure that the people who say that nobody cares about Shenmue are fans of games that have sold less than the first Shenmue.
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They also said people had to buy 2 copies for the game to be profitable.
 
9thwonder said:
That still doesn't sound like it would be significantly more expensive than the Yakuza games and you severely underestimate the hype the press gives games. The game would definitely sell well enough in Japan and the game would definitely outsell the Yakuza games in the west.
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That's very true. I'm a huge Yakuza fan, but those games aren't really popular in the West.
 
Backflip said:
I'll post it again since it looks like some of you just want to troll without reading what other people have to say: Shenmue I sold over 1.2 million copies on a failed console alone.

I'm sure that the people who say that nobody cares about Shenmue are fans of games that have sold less than the first Shenmue.
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Problem is Shenmue 1 was made on a budget that it took until GTAIV to rival. And we're in a period where a million doesn't cut it on cheaper games.

It's all about relativity unfortunately: there's plenty of games not even breaking even on one million it seems (which seems like a bad business model period unless CoD sales were the norm), and Shenmue was ahead of its time especially on budget.
 
Backflip said:
I'll post it again since it looks like some of you just want to troll without reading what other people have to say: Shenmue I sold over 1.2 million copies on a failed console alone.

I'm sure that the people who say that nobody cares about Shenmue are fans of games that have sold less than the first Shenmue.
Click to expand...

The "failed console" bit is irrelevant now. It only moved 1.2 million units, and that was over 12 years ago. Also, the original had the advantage of a lot of hype, huge budget, and some novel mechanics.
 
Phonomezer said:
So you're suggesting that only those who had previously played the game would buy it?

If a game is good, people will buy it. Shenmue I & II were excellent, but were unfortunate enough to launch exclusively on hardware with small install bases.
Click to expand...

If that were true, you'd see a lot more development companies staying alive and not struggling. Sega, for one, has made some excellent games like Binary Domain, Vanquish (well, published), and more. Then why did those games sell like ass compared to stuff like Madden?

Shenmue is a niche series that did well the first run, but once again, could it survive in this climate? It's a slow-moving action game with a lot of story. You think it'll do good in this generation, especially after you have the faster-paced Yakuza?

And you guys need to stop saying that it will outsell Yakuza when that game has been long since established. The fanboy-ing is ruining this topic.
 
Shenmue is only about a six hour game if you rush through it. The engine would not have to be spectacular. No one is asking the game to look like Uncharted. Most fans want a conclusion not some 30 million dollar tent pole production. SEGA could release it as a twenty dollar PSN/Live title and people would take that. At this point, they'll take anything.
 
ThisWreckage said:
This is incorrect. The first Shenmue was one of the best selling Dreamcast games and Shenmue II wasn't a commercial success because it was released on the Xbox (a subpar port that divided the fan base).

Where in the hell is Shenmue HD is my question. We have Sonic Adventure, Crazy Taxi, Sonic Adventure 2, Nights, Jet Set Radio, etc. but no Shenmue? This is particularly baffling considering the rumors that state Shenmue I and II HD have been complete for ages now.
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No, it's correct.

Assuming that the average selling price for the first game was $40 (give or take a couple bucks) for ALL 1.2 million copies sold --- which is an extremely generous estimate --- with a $47 million budget the game at best broke-even from an ROI perpsective. However, it most likely lost money.

And given the failures of Shenmue II, that was definitely unsuccesful from an investment perspective as well.
 
IdreamofHIME said:
Who would buy it?
Click to expand...

That's the thing.

I would. You would. Fans of the series would. That's probably a few thousand people who enjoyed the game. Maybe a bit more.

Would the casual gamer? Hell no. He'd return it because it's boring, probably.

Would the hardcore? Maybe, or maybe he'd bitch about it not being as good as the previous games.

Would the pirate? No. It wasn't worth his or her money.

There are a lot of negative variables against this title.
 
GavinGT said:
The "failing console" bit is irrelevant now. It only moved 1.2 million units, and that was over 12 years ago.
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1.2 million was a lot more impressive 12 years ago. And I don't see how the "failing console bit" is irrelevant. Selling more than a million copies (only 6 DC games managed to do that) on a system that sold only 10.6 million units worldwide is impressive.
 
ThisWreckage said:
At the very least they should re-release Shenmue I and II on Live and PSN to gauge interest. But no, that would make too much sense.
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I wouldn't mind this. I'd definitely buy it, oh and I'd love it on Vita too. My Dreamcast is unreliable with its random resets and it's so damn loud. HD ver could improve the image quality if they target 720p which should be doable.

Like someone else mentioned, they've released other classic sega games for PSN/XBL, why not the Shenmue series?.
It's one of the top 5 Dreamcast games.
 
Sega can barely afford to keep the lights on without their primary IPs (Sonic, War, FM, Aliens), there is unlikely to be any money to throw at a Shenmue Pachinko for XBLA/PSN let alone a new chapter in sailor pursuit, fork lift racing & virtual gachapons.


flipswitch said:
My Dreamcast is unreliable with its random resets and it's so damn loud.
Click to expand...

The random resets are a pretty common error, you need to clean the internal power connectors IIRC.
 
TheSpoiler said:
If that were true, you'd see a lot more development companies staying alive and not struggling. Sega, for one, has made some excellent games like Binary Domain, Vanquish (well, published), and more. Then why did those games sell like ass compared to stuff like Madden?

Shenmue is a niche series that did well the first run, but once again, could it survive in this climate? It's a slow-moving action game with a lot of story. You think it'll do good in this generation, especially after you have the faster-paced Yakuza?

And you guys need to stop saying that it will outsell Yakuza when that game has been long since established. The fanboy-ing is ruining this topic.
Click to expand...

Heavy Rain sold well.
 
ZombiePlatypus said:
One thing I don't understand is the lack of interest argument. I get that the game wouldn't be super cheap to make, but they could always gauge interest in the series first by throwing parts I and II on PSN/Live at least. Guess they can't be bothered.
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Wasn't there a news about Sega having done HD remakes of both games in their "desks"?

I think it was a couple of months ago.
 
9thwonder said:
Yakuza+Hong Kong skin+awesome QTEs=?????

Would definitely outsell vanquish, binary domain,Yakuza ect.
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Aren't QTEs now pretty much universally reviled?

Backflip said:
Oh come on! It was released on the Xbox at launch, when nobody owned/wanted an Xbox. Most of Europe didn't want to even touch the Xbox at that time.
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Shenmue II was released on the DC in Europe, and nearly a year later on Xbox IIRC. Anyone that interested would have imported a Euro copy for the DC and probably impacted the sales Microsoft were hoping for in the US.
 
Backflip said:
1.2 million was a lot more impressive 12 years ago. And I don't see how the "failing console bit" is irrelevant. Selling more than a million copies (only 6 DC games managed to do that) on a system that sold only 10.6 million units worldwide is impressive.
Click to expand...
Platform doesn't matter if you spent GTAIV bucks on it. If the game were made on a more reasonable budget I imagine it'd have been well worth it for Sega to grow. I think that's PROBABLY the difference between it and Yakuza: I'm assuming Yakuza's made on a budget friendly for the sales it gets, so it keeps being put out and (hopefully) localized, whereas Shenmue was one of the first games that needed to be a 5-10 million blockbuster to be worth continuing to invest in... when it could only get sales akin to, say, Mega Man on a really good day instead.
 
Backflip said:
1.2 million was a lot more impressive 12 years ago. And I don't see how the "failing console bit" is irrelevant. Selling more than a million copies (only 6 DC games managed to do that) on a system that sold only 10.6 million units worldwide is impressive.
Click to expand...

It definitely sold well for a Dreamcast game. But what matters now is that only 1.2 million people played the first one and fewer played the second. Sega wouldn't realistically reach a new market with Shenmue III, so it's sort of pointless to talk about what the first one could have sold had it been on a more popular platform. I think 1.2 million would be the absolute ceiling on Shenmue III sales, and even that would be wildly optimistic.
 
TheSpoiler said:
If that were true, you'd see a lot more development companies staying alive and not struggling. Sega, for one, has made some excellent games like Binary Domain, Vanquish (well, published), and more. Then why did those games sell like ass compared to stuff like Madden?
Click to expand...

Comparing new, BARELY marketed IPs to an annual release like Madden is ridiculous.

TheSpoiler said:
Shenmue is a niche series that did well the first run, but once again, could it survive in this climate? It's a slow-moving action game with a lot of story. You think it'll do good in this generation, especially after you have the faster-paced Yakuza?
Click to expand...

Slow moving.. yes, there are a lot of "slow-moving" action titles, but it's quite action oriented and stylish. It'll find an audience, just as a game like Dark Souls has.

TheSpoiler said:
And you guys need to stop saying that it will outsell Yakuza when that game has been long since established. The fanboy-ing is ruining this topic.
Click to expand...

Are you factoring in that the game would (most likely) be available on every platform imaginable, whereas Yakuza is exclusive to Sony consoles?
 
Eusis said:
Platform doesn't matter if you spent GTAIV bucks on it. If the game were made on a more reasonable budget I imagine it'd have been well worth it for Sega to grow. I think that's PROBABLY the difference between it and Yakuza: I'm assuming Yakuza's made on a budget friendly for the sales it gets, so it keeps being put out and (hopefully) localized, whereas Shenmue was one of the first games that needed to be a 5-10 million blockbuster to be worth continuing to invest in... when it was, like, Mega Man on a really good day instead.
Click to expand...

But how can you sell 5-10 million copies on a system that's struggling to reach that kind of install base?
 
Maybe Sega hates NeoGAF, or maybe they don't and have a made a secret partnership with Nintendo to develop Animal Crossing X Shenmue, it would make sense.
 
GavinGT said:
It definitely sold well for a Dreamcast game. But what matters now is that only 1.2 million people played the first one and fewer played the second. Sega wouldn't realistically reach a new market with Shenmue III, so it's sort of pointless to talk about what it could have sold had it been on a more popular platform. I think 1.2 million would be the absolute ceiling on Shenmue III sales, and even that would be wildly optimistic.
Click to expand...

You also have to take pirated games (and piracy was rampant on the DC) and used sales into account.
 
MikeE21286 said:
No, it's correct.

Assuming that the average selling price for the first game was $40 (give or take a couple bucks) for ALL 1.2 million copies sold --- which is an extremely generous estimate --- with a $47 million budget the game at best broke-even from an ROI perpsective. However, it most likely lost money.

And given the failures of Shenmue II, that was definitely unsuccesful from an investment perspective as well.
Click to expand...

I recall reading that the game had a budget closer to 30 million and that the overall budget was always inflated. SEGA was stupid to give the game that big of a budget. That was the biggest issue. There's no reason to think that a Shenmue III wouldn't be moderately successful. No one is asking for a 20 hour single player experience with Uncharted graphics. I'd be happy with a Deadly Premonition type budget and a 19.99 retail release.
 
Phonomezer said:
Comparing new, BARELY marketed IPs to an annual release like Madden is ridiculous.



Slow moving.. yes, there are a lot of "slow-moving" action titles, but it's quite action oriented and stylish. It'll find an audience, just as a game like Dark Souls has.



Are you factoring in that the game would (most likely) be available on every platform imaginable, whereas Yakuza is exclusive to Sony consoles?
Click to expand...

1. In general, the quality of the game doesn't matter nearly as much as you might think. Okay, take out Madden. Those games are good still, yeah? Why aren't they breaking more?

2. Dark Souls did great because it was uncompromising in a sea of forgiving games. Not every game can find a proper audience, much less one that'll be profitable.

3. Production cost for more than one system? That's going to be even more. Putting it on a few different systems isn't going to help much when the game isn't that popular.

Edit: Well, I'm leaving this topic. It's really hard to have a conversation that isn't up in the clouds. I want a new game also, but I'm going to be real about it instead of making silly excuses. If we can find the real issues, shit like LOL SEGA LAZY HA can be pushed to the side.
 
I love Shenmue - especially Shenmue 2. I try to replay both games annually (Shenmue at some point in December and its successor during spring) if my schedule permits it. The 'Gang Edition' version of it (all three movies) also really speaks to me, because I feel as if it captures the spirit of the time when I first played the games quite accurately (in terms of pop-cultural references, gaming-related inside jokes and evoking memories of hobby filmmaking as a young teen). It's like distilled nostalgia and - above that - a meticulously detailed and respectful parody of the game's more quirky characteristics. Hence, I also watch them once or twice per year. :D
 
Everyone buy the HD release of Shenmue 1 and 2 when it comes out (just a feeling)
Then MAYBE they can see the potential to make another one.
 
1. It would sell like shit
2. It would be expensive
3. Yu Suzuki doesn't care anymore
 
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