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[MuchoMalo]

But that's the thing, it doesn't need to be replicated.

I agree that this was an unforeseen runaway success for them, but it's not as if they need another Pokemon GO esque success to make them a continuous flow of money.

If they have a stable of titles that make them a few hundred thousand a day (which Pokemon GO may be able to do moving forward, even after the craze dies out) then why even bother with the console industry?

Because it leaves them in a position where they're depending on a fickle market that could turn on them at any moment. This is on top of the time it would take to reshuffle the company and get rid of no longer necessary parts of it. What if GO dies off as they're doing this and none of their other games are all that successful? There'd be no turning back. They'd be taking a huge risk in order to become a smaller company but with better profit margins. They'd end up like the rest eventually, having to just constantly spew out little games to collect scraps.

I don't understand why so many people feel that Nintendo needs to stick to a single business. It's just weird.

 

[diaspora]

unfortunately there's no stability patch for the volatility of the mobile apps market

 

[test_account]

I mean, it should reflect on the company. It's their twitter account.

I'm not saying the tweets reflect the views of every single person at the company, I'm saying the company let it happen and then quickly tried to cover their tracks when it backfired. The company fucked up here, and that it happened with two entirely separate divisions (on different continents even) just makes it look worse and begs unfortunate questions.

Sure, it should, but that doesnt mean that individuals cant fuck up. I'm sure that the person(s) who handle the Twitter accounts has pretty much free boundries when it comes to posting (as in, they dont have to ask someone for permission first). And if someone else sees it and disagree with it, theres a big chance that it would be taken further and higher up within the company, and that is most likely why that tweet was removed. The Xdev tweet is still there by the way.

But yes, in the end it is the company's responsibility, and it can make the company look bad, but my point is that its important to keep in mind that this doesnt necessarily represent a company's value. You can ask the question of course, but personally i dont feel that there is any evidence to back such thing up. The tweets from SSM and Xdev were also quite different from eachother. SSM linked to an article about that Pokemon Go said little about Nintendo's future, while Xdev simply said that Invinzimals did it first (not mentioning anything about Pokemon Go's effect on Nintendo). Its clear that someone are a bit jealous of the extreme popularity of Pokemon Go and all the PR that its getting for free, but two seperate and different tweets isnt any evidence that this is something that goes deeper into the companies values, in my opinion.

 

[Father_Brain]

Given that (in addition to the aforementioned three consecutive years of operating losses) this gen saw Nintendo lose ~85% of their console userbase and ~55% of their handheld userbase, I don't think the argument that dedicated platforms are a pillar of stability relative to mobile really holds up to scrutiny.

Because it leaves them in a position where they're depending on a fickle market that could turn on them at any moment. This is on top of the time it would take to reshuffle the company and get rid of no longer necessary parts of it. What if GO dies off as they're doing this and none of their other games are all that successful? There'd be no turning back. They'd be taking a huge risk in order to become a smaller company but with better profit margins. They'd end up like the rest eventually, having to just constantly spew out little games to collect scraps.

I don't understand why so many people feel that Nintendo needs to stick to a single business. It's just weird.

I'm not sure why people have such a hard time remembering that the IP licensing business exists, but they wouldn't be mobile-only even if they permanently quit dedicated hardware tomorrow.

 

[GregLombardi]

Given that (in addition to the aforementioned three consecutive years of operating losses) this gen saw Nintendo lose ~85% of their console userbase and ~55% of their handheld userbase, I don't think the argument that dedicated platforms are a pillar of stability relative to mobile really holds up to scrutiny.

.

Gotta diversify

 

[Abounder]

Consoles are a great way to add million$ in bullshit subscription fees like what Sony and Microsoft discovered. Nintendo hasn't even played that card yet.

 

[VariantX]

Because it leaves them in a position where they're depending on a fickle market that could turn on them at any moment. This is on top of the time it would take to reshuffle the company and get rid of no longer necessary parts of it. What if GO dies off as they're doing this and none of their other games are all that successful? There'd be no turning back. They'd be taking a huge risk in order to become a smaller company but with better profit margins. They'd end up like the rest eventually, having to just constantly spew out little games to collect scraps.

I don't understand why so many people feel that Nintendo needs to stick to a single business. It's just weird.

Me either, they should be covering all their bases. Dumping consoles is leaving money on the table every bit as much as ignoring the mobile market.

 

[diaspora]

.

Gotta diversify

Yep. And I want need Nintendo to open an actual online store for merch. I'd buy all the decals if they did.

 

[S¡mon]

Pokémon Go is a hype. It's great for Nintendo and all the companies involved, but like with so many other apps and games it's going to collapse. And when that happens Nintendo's market value will collapse.

 

[Randdalf]

I wonder if they can transfer some of the success of GO to promoting sales of Sun and Moon.

 

[diaspora]

Pokémon Go is a hype. It's great for Nintendo and all the companies involved, but like with so many other apps and games it's going to collapse. And when that happens Nintendo's market value will collapse.

Possibly, but it's not outside the realm of possibility for Nintendo to capitalize on the success of the app by promoting IRL events and stuff and trickling in newer gen pokemon. They don't even have an Elite 4/ Champion system in place yet. Not to mention using the brand awareness they got through this IP licensing to promote other software.

 

[DrWong]

Pokémon Go is a hype. It's great for Nintendo and all the companies involved, but like with so many other apps and games it's going to collapse. And when that happens Nintendo's market value will collapse.

You forgot to add a "please gods i want it to be true".

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Pokémon Go is a hype. It's great for Nintendo and all the companies involved, but like with so many other apps and games it's going to collapse. And when that happens Nintendo's market value will collapse.

Any day now, this Pokemon fad will end. I can feel it.

 

[Maniel]

I don't really care for Pokemon Go, but I'm happy to see Nintendo successful. I hope a lot of the money they make goes into developing some NX games that otherwise would not have been made.

 

[Aces&Eights]

Anyone who does business with folks in Japan might want to get it wrapped up soon. Once this game drops no one in the entire country will be answering their phones.

I've been around for 43 years and seen fads and phenomenons come and go but this is on a whole other level. Holy shit.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Given that (in addition to the aforementioned three consecutive years of operating losses) this gen saw Nintendo lose ~85% of their console userbase and ~55% of their handheld userbase, I don't think the argument that dedicated platforms are a pillar of stability relative to mobile really holds up to scrutiny.



I'm not sure why people have such a hard time remembering that the IP licensing business exists, but they wouldn't be mobile-only even if they permanently quit dedicated hardware tomorrow.

They'd still be entirely dependent on a fickle market. If mobile collapses under them, they won't be a multi-billion dollar company anymore just from IP licensing. ANd I need to remind you that you're all saying this based on ONE GAME. ONE. What if every other game ends up like Miitomo? Then what?

They're making the right decision by not dropping hardware until it's no longer worth supporting, because if they turn it around they'll be much better off than they could ever be as a mobile + licensing company.

 

[MacTag]

Sure, it should, but that doesnt mean that individuals cant fuck up. I'm sure that the person(s) who handle the Twitter accounts has pretty much free boundries when it comes to posting (as in, they dont have to ask someone for permission first).

Perhaps that's the problem?

But yes, in the end it is the company's responsibility, and it can make the company look bad, but the point i'm trying to get across is that its important to keep in mind that this doesnt necessarily represent a company's value. You can ask the question of course, but personally i dont feel that there is any evidence to back such thing up. The tweets from SSM and Xdev were also quite different from eachother. SSM linked to an article about that Pokemon Go said little about Nintendo's future, while Xdev simply said that Invinzimals did it first (not mentioning anything about Pokemon Go's effect on Nintendo). Its clear that someone are a bit jealous of the extreme popularity of Pokemon Go and all the PR that its getting for free, but two seperate and different tweets isnt any evidence that this is something that goes deeper into the companies values, in my opinion.

I mean, I agree with you that it most likely isn't revealing any larger anti-Nintendo ideology within SIE's culture. The issue is that it still looks like it does. Again, it's the optics that are the issue here.

On the other hand we have Yoshida having fun with the app and posting about it on twitter. Sony might need to have more oversight on their corperate twitters and having more disciplined people handling them, but also let more people like Yoshida who can stay positive and reasoned operate as company ambassadors.

Given that (in addition to the aforementioned three consecutive years of operating losses) this gen saw Nintendo lose ~85% of their console userbase and ~55% of their handheld userbase, I don't think the argument that dedicated platforms are a pillar of stability relative to mobile really holds up to scrutiny.

And even with those massive declines it seems they've turned the corner back to profitability. In 3DS' case by building a respectable if much smaller marketplace, in Wii U's case by mitigating the bleeding, holding price and not throwing good money after bad. Even in a catastrophic console cycle Nintendo won't end up in the red. That sounds like a relatively stable approach where when you lose you still make money but when you hit (like with NES, GB, DS, Wii, etc) you make industry redefining profit. Sounds like a good risk.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Saying Nintendo will want to look into leaving the console business because of mobile success is like saying they should put all their eggs in one basket. A very wobbly basket.

On the edge of a cliff.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Saying Nintendo will want to look into leaving the console business because of mobile success is like saying they should put all their eggs in one basket. A very wobbly basket.

On the edge of a cliff.

No, you see, IP licensing will be their crutch. You know, the thing they're already doing.

This is sarcasm.

 

[test_account]

Perhaps that's the problem?

Well, i assume its like that with basically every company. It seems like convoluted task to have every tweet approved by someone else first, in my opinion. That should be a job for the community manager and its about trusting that the person does a good enough job representing the company.

I mean, I agree with you that it most likely isn't revealing any larger anti-Nintendo ideology within SIE's culture. The issue is that it still looks like it does. Again, it's the optics that are the issue here.

On the other hand we have Yoshida having fun with the app and posting about it on twitter. Sony might need to have more oversight on their corperate twitters and having more disciplined people handling them, but also let more people like Yoshida who can stay positive and reasoned operate as company ambassadors.

I could see that some people would get that impression, that is why i'm stressing the point that its likely just one guy who posted that.

I'm sure there will be some talking to those who made those tweets and saying that they shouldnt post things like that. Not sure what happends more after that, if they are banned from using Twitter or if a warning is issued at first. Nintendo banned Dan Adelman from Twitter because he symphatized with someone on Twitter regarding region locking on the 3DS (http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...lose_encounters_with_Nintendos_indie_exec.php), so i guess similar things can happen in other companies too. Someone over at EA also made a tweet about a WiiU joke and Peter Moore (CEO) went out to apologized for it (http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ea...lls-them-unacceptable-and-stupid/1100-6418699). Its hard to have 100% control over something like this.

Could it be that people's personal tweets from those companies are different? Yoshida's tweets are afterall his personal account. Gotta love Yoshida though, he is very positive

 

[Neff]

Ignoring the Wii seems to be a favourite habit of NeoGAF Nintendo threads.

 

[Father_Brain]

And even with those massive declines it seems they've turned the corner back to profitability. In 3DS' case by building a respectable if much smaller marketplace, in Wii U's case by mitigating the bleeding, holding price and not throwing good money after bad. Even in a catastrophic console cycle Nintendo won't end up in the red. That sounds like a relatively stable approach where when you lose you still make money but when you hit (like with NES, GB, DS, Wii, etc) you make industry redefining profit. Sounds like a good risk.

All of that is predicated on the assumption that their struggles this gen are due entirely to missteps specific to their current platforms, as opposed to a structural shift in the market beyond Nintendo's control that will continue to erode the addressable market for their dedicated hardware. Which is precisely where I find my main disagreement with those bullish on NX (and Nintendo's hardware business in general).

Well, we'll see who's right in a few years.

Ignoring the Wii seems to be a favourite habit of NeoGAF Nintendo threads.

See above. If you assume that there hasn't been a major structural change in the market since '06, it's a lot easier to believe that they might catch lightning in a bottle again.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Ignoring the Wii seems to be a favourite habit of NeoGAF Nintendo threads.

You don't even need to look at it. Look at Nintendo's profits in the GameCube era compared to a company like King at its peak. You'll be absolutely shocked.

 

[NegativeCero]

It's crazy how lucky Nintendo has been at "right place, right time" situations given the Wii explosion and (probably to a shorter extent) this blowing up. Good for them, though. Just shows you can't count them out.

 

[FreedomFighter]

Any day now, this Pokemon fad will end. I can feel it.

You forgot to add a "please gods i want it to be true".

Pretty much. Too much salt in this thread. Why not just enjoy the ride?

 

[Icyflamez96]

Possibly, but it's not outside the realm of possibility for Nintendo to capitalize on the success of the app by promoting IRL events and stuff and trickling in newer gen pokemon. They don't even have an Elite 4/ Champion system in place yet. Not to mention using the brand awareness they got through this IP licensing to promote other software.

This is something they've hinted at/talked about?

 

[diaspora]

This is something they've hinted at/talked about?

Nope. I'm just saying that it's something they can do.

 

[Clefargle]

Ignoring the Wii seems to be a favourite habit of NeoGAF Nintendo threads.

it was a fluke...

Spoiler

is what they say

 

[MacTag]

All of that is predicated on the assumption that their struggles this gen are due entirely to missteps specific to their current platforms, as opposed to a structural shift in the market beyond Nintendo's control that will continue to erode the market for their dedicated hardware. Which is precisely where I find my main disagreement with those bullish on NX (and Nintendo's hardware business in general).

Well, we'll see who's right in a few years.

Not really, it can be predicated on both. 3DS showed us what a viable platform can look like in a post-smartphone world; it was still an ill-concieved device that needed heavy subsidizing to turn around while phones also utterly decimated both it's audience and developer support. But it's still making decent money anyway, Nintendo platforms can still be worthwhile revenue drivers. And if they're better devices perhaps they can perform better as well, but as you say we'll have to see.

It's crazy how lucky Nintendo has been at "right place, right time" situations given the Wii explosion and (probably to a shorter extent) this blowing up. Good for them, though. Just shows you can't count them out.

You can also add to that Donkey Kong, NES/Super Mario Bros, Game Boy/Tetris, DS/non-games and Pokémon the first time. So many bottles of lightning...

 

[Father_Brain]

You don't even need to look at it. Look at Nintendo's profits in the GameCube era compared to a company like King at its peak. You'll be absolutely shocked.

It's almost like they had another platform that sold four times as much as GC in a market that has not only shrunk drastically since last gen, but has steadily declined over the course of this one.

Not really, it can be predicated on both. 3DS showed us what a viable platform can look like in a post-smartphone world; it was still an ill-concieved device that needed heavy subsidizing to turn around while phones also utterly decimated both it's audience and developer support. But it's still making decent money anyway, Nintendo platforms can still be worthwhile revenue drivers. And if they're better devices perhaps they can perform better as well, but as you say we'll have to see.

I don't think 3DS offers a workable model for dedicated handhelds going forward, given how early sales peaked despite drastic price cuts and excellent software.

 

[Dirk Benedict]

Didn't happen when the Wii was all the rage despite people acting like it did, so there's no reason they'd do that now.

Wii was their hardware. Lot's of people like to dismiss the fact that this app was put out on Android/iOS and guess what, most people on the planet already have phones with those mobile OS's on them. We already own the hardware to play this app.

It will be very interesting to see if Nintendo can get people from their phones to the point where they open their wallet for new hardware, using Pokemon Go as some kind of trojan horse.

 

[MacTag]

I don't think 3DS offers a workable model for dedicated handhelds going forward, given how early sales peaked despite drastic price cuts and excellent software.

The early peak was followed by relatively stable sales for years though. It's an earlier peak than usual but you're making too much of that versus the overall curve and relatively stable overall cycle. And the drastic cut and dominant year 1 holiday lineup was why we saw that premature peak too. It's really only started winding down appreciably this year, which is pretty remarkable given the overall entertainment landscape it sits in.

You're right that 3DS doesn't provide a great model going forward though. It didn't provide a great model for it's own cycle even, that was sort of the point.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

GameStop shares are up about 12% since Pokémon Go's debut.


https://www.thestreet.com/story/13643637/2/hunting-for-pokemon-go-at-retailers.html

 

[Neff]

All of that is predicated on the assumption that their struggles this gen are due entirely to missteps specific to their current platforms, as opposed to a structural shift in the market beyond Nintendo's control that will continue to erode the addressable market for their dedicated hardware.

They absolutely are. The real question is- is that damage reversible?

That's not so say that there hasn't been a huge shift in the games market since Wii, particularly regarding the importance of advertising and perception of value for money, but these shifts aren't exclusively suffered by Nintendo, nor simply because they're Nintendo.

 

[MuchoMalo]

It's almost like they had another platform that sold four times as much as GC in a market that has not only shrunk drastically since last gen, but has steadily declined over the course of this one.

I can safely say that you didn't actually look and compare them. Long story short, even a third of the profit of the GCN/GBA era would still be worth pursuing alongside mobile, while half of the profit would make the tow businesses roughly equal.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

GameStop shares are up about 12% since Pokémon Go's debut.


https://www.thestreet.com/story/13643637/2/hunting-for-pokemon-go-at-retailers.html

They need to get back to their inner 90's.

 

[Morfeo]

Pokemon Go, despite being primarily developed by another company (though obviously heavily supervised by Nintendo), has a lot of what makes Nintendo games great just in the presentation.

The Pokemon characters have 9000 times more character than the soulless euro-garbage (that 'Dreamworks knockoff' art style crap like Clash of Clans) that's been dominating mobile for a while now, and it's been maintained perfectly in the game. So I see potential there.

Sure, the presentation is spot on. But the core gameplay is fun, but not very deep, and I can just imagine how a Fire Emblem-game, a Zelda-game or a Mario-game would be.

Uh, i doubt it, this is a bit of an overreaction,dont you think? Nintendo wont drop traditional controls anytime soon based in one (deserved) success.

And there is NO way you can make a Zelda ala BotW on mobile.

Of course we need to see that NX soon

It is an overreaction based on this one game, however, i think it is a possible future if Nintendos console business continue to tank, and they have success in mobile. Not in the short term, but in the longer term. And yeah, the fact that a game that BotW is impossible on mobile, is why I am worried.

have to disagree a bit here mate. Wii is when I kinda fell out of love with Nintendo. Yeah, they had core games, but it was outdated tech wise the moment it hit the market, by a lot too. So yeah, it had some great gameplay experiences, but it was missing very important games like Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Final Fantasy etc...that just skipped Wii because of hardware limitations and the entire open world trend basically skipped right over Wii. It was not a good core system IMO unless you particularly love Nintendo franchises. Big gaming moments in the industry was completely left out on Wii, it was mostly just irrelevant because Wii had its own special moment with waggle and the casual boom..

Nintendo have missed those games since the N64, and the Wii was not much worse or better in that regard. Slightly worse than Gameube, slightly better than N64 imo. Anyways, the Wii had limitations in specs, but gave possibilities in controls, and this made for an incredibly exciting time in the gaming industry that Sony or MS never have come close to capture imo. Hate them or love them, but games like Other M had gameplay completely out of left field thanks to the strange control setup on the Wii, and this made me, as a core gamer interested in fresh experiences, incredbily excited and happy with the Wii. While the PS360 imo simply continued down that same path of "better graphics and bigger worlds" that is frankly not that interesting to me.

 

[Father_Brain]

I can safely say that you didn't actually look and compare them. Long story short, even a third of the profit of the GCN/GBA era would still be worth pursuing alongside mobile, while half of the profit would make the tow businesses roughly equal.

Given declining handheld sales, nonexistent Western third-party support, and increased software development costs, even 1/3 of that seems far from guaranteed.

 

[Aostia]

Given declining handheld sales, nonexistent Western third-party support, and increased software development costs, even 1/3 of that seems far from guaranteed.

so thee is no logic nor hope for any kind of nintendo dedicated hardware, am I reading you right?

 

[stan423321]

Saying Nintendo will want to look into leaving the console business because of mobile success is like saying they should put all their eggs in one basket. A very wobbly basket.

On the edge of a cliff.

Saying Nintendo is able to do thing A is like saying they should do thing A? Not so fast.

Remember, we're talking about a company here. A company made of people who occasionally do irrational things. This isn't limited to Nintendo by the way, though relatively major interest on their doings on GAF combined with them making decisions that occasionally make more sense back home does amplify their "irrationalism" a bit.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

I have no idea what you're going for here.

 

[Herb Alpert]

so thee is no logic nor hope for any kind of nintendo dedicated hardware, am I reading you right?

how shocking. It's as if they were doomed.

 

[Father_Brain]

so thee is no logic nor hope for any kind of nintendo dedicated hardware, am I reading you right?

More than none, but nothing suggests to me that they can reverse what mobile has done to the perceived value of gaming hardware/software.

 

[MuchoMalo]

Given declining handheld sales, nonexistent Western third-party support, and increased software development costs, even 1/3 of that seems far from guaranteed.

From a hardware perspective, they'd need to sell 30-40 million units total between console and handheld. I'd be shocked if they couldn't manage that. Then they could potentially be a position where mobile is worth up to twice as much as dedicated hardware and the software for it. Mobile could become the primary source of income, but not the only one.

I'll admit my bias though, since a mobile-only Nintendo would not be the Nintendo I want to do business with.

 

[Whompa02]

Holy crap look at that spike.

 

[Aostia]

how shocking. It's as if they were doomed.

Since 1889?
Btw me too I would like to discuss their hw business future that offers issues in this very moment for sure, but the set in stone doom & gloom seems too strong in some people, especially in a moment that is showing good
PR moves, development achievements and financial success for the company in this very moment.

Nes classic has been received in a positive way that I didn't see about nintendo since the 3ds reveal, Zelda has been voted as a Best of the show at e3 by many people and made people run at it despite being a wiiu exclusive, something that the last time happened for the Wii launch. Pokémon go is setting record and becoming a viral social phenomenon increasing their market value, their financial and their brand awarness.

I mean, nothing of these set a clear fate for NX but at the same time I would at least give their portable hardware a chance of being still significant also looking g at the 3ds business results that are far away from the ds but to me still pretty significant

It sold more than 60 millions and those werent all sold before the mobile frezy hit

It was pretty stable, a huge success in Japan and able to sell better in 15 than in 14 even in the west thanks to the New model revision despite a thinner support

This year in Japan there will be many heavy hitters and in the west the probable price cut alongside the new pokemon game, after the GO frenzy, could still manage decent sales.

It could end up around 70 millions sold as LTD, 45 of which sold in the west and many of which sold after its initial peak, showing both stability and overall good numbers

I dont know if the xbox one will sell more, even in the west alone

 

[Maxrunner]

How Dare Nintendo to make profits based on their properties...

 

[wig]

Saw this posted on Twitter the other day. Absolutely insane. The Pokemon craze is real.

https://twitter.com/CatchEmAlI/status/754638138136465408

 

[Aostia]

More than none, but nothing suggests to me that they can reverse what mobile has done to the perceived value of gaming hardware/software.

I agree, reverse it will be hard.
Even if with a better positioned hw from the very beginning they could avoid to lose six months on the market.
Even if without a direct competitor like Vita they could aim also at a small part of that demographic with new third party deal and a better hw.
Even if a better planned hw could lead many more sw from indie to smartphone projects or even app/services to the platform.
without mentioning their chance to improve their digital business and income
Even if their IP leverage in the mobile, theme park, tv series segments could increase their brand awarness.
Even if an embedded NFC reader could exploit the amiibo fever also on their portable (35 millions of figure sold and something like 10 millions of NFC cards)

I mean there is also room for improvement imho

And that said, I think that with a 70 millions install base, ending at second place behind only to ps4, they would need to stabilize their portable business, not necessarily to reverse it. Also because there are many ways, partially cited previously by me, that could even point at lower development costs for their sw, not necessarily seeing an increase (middleware, scalability, mobile assets sharing and so on)

 

[purdobol]

It's crazy how lucky Nintendo has been at "right place, right time" situations given the Wii explosion and (probably to a shorter extent) this blowing up. Good for them, though. Just shows you can't count them out.

Really don't think luck is involved here. This company is constantly experimenting with new things. For better or worse they're really do try to innovate.