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[DoomGyver]

Would you believe me if I told you that KZ:SF will sell around 4M copies?

4M is about right, heck it may only sell 3M. It's not a large seller and launching day one in a new generation is going to make it sell even worse. But that means nothing to me, KZSF will keep me busy all winter, and if I get bored I have BF4 and indie titles like Resogun to occupy my time until more games come out in the spring.

 

[skynidas]

 

[BruiserBear]

I don't think anyone is ever going to repeat what happened with the PS2. Back then so many third parties, particularly Japanese ones, just made their game exclusive to the PS2. It basically created a situation where the PS2 was the blatant, obvious, undisputed option for gamers.

I definitely expect the PS4 to win this gen, but I don't think the XB1 is gonna get buried. Especially if Microsoft comes to their senses eventually and removes the Kinect to dramatically lower the price.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

There's nothing wrong with indies but because of the limited staff they have and low budgets it's hard for them to make certain types of games.

How does that answer the question: 'what's wrong with Indies?'

I'm not aiming this at you personally but It's becoming ever more apparent that 'some' people want to dismiss Indies and F2P games so that they can continue an ingenuous narrative. I'd also say that KZS, Resogun and Driveclub are the only games I've seen so far that actually look next gen.

 

[Prince Vultan]

Where did I say anything about the quality of indies?

Why did you feel the need to specifically exclude indies from the equation with your previous post?

 

[dezzy8]

Damn I see why they were so cocky with the launch of PS3.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

Indeed. It's going to have a very high attach-rate. No one is going to buy Knack, no one is going to buy DriveClub because the big demo is free with PS+, everyone is going to buy KZ. It's like Resistance and Motorstorm sold far higher than they 'should' have. This time there's only one exclusive worth buying.

Knack will do well enough. It's the only big family-oriented game at launch.

 

[Zabant]

4M is about right, heck it may only sell 3M. It's not a large seller and launching day one in a new generation is going to make it sell even worse.

Being the only dog in the yard will increase sales imo. Kinda like how like TES: Oblivion and resistance sold gangbusters the first year of the 360/ps3 era due to the fact there was jack and shit in way of games to play.

 

[BTM]

Damn, it's pretty amazing how quickly Microsoft was able to make up huge ground with the 360. Sony really let it go with the PS3.

 

[noobasuar]

How does that answer the question: 'what's wrong with Indies?'

I'm not aiming this at you personally but It's becoming ever more apparent that 'some' people want to dismiss Indies and F2P games so that they can continue an ingenuous narrative.

On the other side of the coin I hate how some people just make huge lists of indie games as if that supposed to show some merit of quality.

It's also easier for people to dismiss games from indie developers since most of the time the game is coming from some unproven team. I'd rather be cautious about games that I don't know the pedigree of the team behind it than automatically assume that the game is going to be awesome "because it's indie."

 

[JordanN]

Don't want domination personally, competition is good for us.

At this point, what competition is there?

Wii U is irrelevant and XBO almost forced DRM and was always slated to be a weaker machine. Not saying competition is bad though, but the competitors aren't being revolutionary.

 

[TGO]

They're going to win, but no, not PS2 style.

*Keanu img*
What if......it exceeds it?!

 

[StuBurns]

I think Knack and DC are worth buying. Parents buying their kids PS4 (or buying PS4 for themselves + family) will be getting Knack in the holidays.

When I said 'no one', that was an exaggeration, both Knack and DriveClub will sell at least one copy I'm sure.

But okay, if we take a closer look logically, who is going to buy those games. You mention parents buying a PS4 for their child. This will happen, there will be young people who get PS4 this holiday season, how young do they have to be for Knack to be their preference? I'm going to say 8ish? How many eight year olds get a brand new system the holiday it launches? Especially when it involves preorders and long queues? Probably an extremely low number.

Secondly adults buying one who also just want a kid friendly game. This is going to happen, but even then, Knack becomes a secondary purchase. And if the demos are anything to go by, Knack is going to review poorly, which will affect sales by this sub-set of early adopters.

DriveClub. I can't really think who's going to buy this. Only really uniformed buyers who don't know there's a PS+ Edition for free, and they need PS+ this time around. There will be a number of driving game enthusiasts who are buying PS4's this holiday, and some of them will be woefully uninformed, and will pick up a copy, but again, that's going to be a very low number.

Neither of them will ever sell 500K.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

When I said 'no one', that was an exaggeration, both Knack and DriveClub will sell at least one copy I'm sure.

But okay, if we take a closer look logically, who is going to buy those games. You mention parents buying a PS4 for their child. This will happen, there will be young people who get PS4 this holiday season, how young do they have to be for Knack to be their preference? I'm going to say 8ish? How many eight year olds get a brand new system the holiday it launches? Especially when it involves preorders and long queues? Probably an extremely low number.

Secondly adults buying one who also just want a kid friendly game. This is going to happen, but even then, Knack becomes a secondary purchase. And if the demos are anything to go by, Knack is going to review poorly, which will affect sales by this sub-set of early adopters.

DriveClub. I can't really think who's going to buy this. Only really uniformed buyers who don't know there's a PS+ Edition for free, and they need PS+ this time around. There will be a number of driving game enthusiasts who are buying PS4's this holiday, and some of them will be woefully uninformed, and till pick up a copy, but again, that's going to be a very low number.

Neither of them will ever sell 500K.

Both will sell at least a million.

Knack will be a primary purchase with the purchase of a family PS4.

Driveclub is the only racer at launch and plenty of people would want to get the full experience.

 

[TheDarkKnight774]

I don't know why Garnett thinks it will be so tough for people to switch systems. Some people quit gaming, some people stay, and others move on, new people hop on. Achievements or trophies aren't that important for the mass market to stay with one console over another for this reason alone.

it would have been tough except MS for some reason decided to destroy their digital game ecosystem. Sony did too but i understood their need to free themselves from the Cell based architecture and there might be some hope with streaming.

But MS had a huge opportunity because Sony had to cut off the PS3 library and instead follow suit. If they did something like Apple where you get the next Xbox and all 360 games and content also worked, it'd be a good incentive to stay with one game library/ecosystem.

 

[StuBurns]

Both will sell at least a million.

Bam, let's get Pachter in here, whoever he sides with, we know is wrong.

 

[Snakeyes]

If nothing else Sony can lay claim to two things if the PS4 becomes the market leader this cycle. First will be most generations of being the market leader, passing Nintendo by 3-2.

Unless the PS3 or 360 sell another 20 million in the coming years, Nintendo has won 3 generations so far.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Where did I say anything about the quality of indies?

Sorry, I went and read the start of the conversation and it was Frumix that excluded indies. It just seems like indies are frequently dismissed when talking about launch quality for the consoles. It makes no sense.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

On the other side of the coin I hate how some people just make huge lists of indie games as if that supposed to show some merit of quality.

It's also easier for people to dismiss games from indie developers since most of the time the game is coming from some unproven team. I'd rather be cautious about games that I don't know the pedigree of the team behind it than automatically assume that the game is going to be awesome "because it's indie."

Well, that's fair enough but I don't recall anyone suggesting that all Indie games are incredible. I've only ever seen them mention it in the context of reducing the launch line up or as an indication that Sony are supporting smaller teams.

 

[StoopKid]

Damn, it's pretty amazing how quickly Microsoft was able to make up huge ground with the 360. Sony really let it go with the PS3.

yea to let microsoft launch a year ahead and then release the ps3 at $600 was dumb as hell by sony.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

Why would you think that?

pokemon being the juggernaut it is, releasing next week

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

pokemon being the juggernaut it is, releasing next week

Fair enough but it never went away. Isn't there one released every year?

 

[UNCMark]

Why did you feel the need to specifically exclude indies from the equation with your previous post?

Read the thread. Specifically the post I responded directly to.

 

[IAmRandom31]

I took 'indies' just to mean downloadable-only releases. But yeah, in that case MS has more, Sony only has Resogun in terms of exclusives.

Say Huh?

The Witness
Blacklight Retribution
War Thunder
WarFrame
Planetside 2
Assault Android Cactus
DayZ
Galak-Z
Divekick

I could go on for awhile in this respect.

 

[timetokill]

Nintendo has won 3 generations so far.

That's ignoring handhelds completely, which is ridiculous to do as well.

 

[StuBurns]

Say Huh?

The Witness
Blacklight Retribution
War Thunder
WarFrame
Planetside 2
Assault Android Cactus
DayZ
Galak-Z
Divekick

I could go on for awhile in this respect.

Well, that depends what you mean by exclusive, they're all multiplatform, except maybe AAC, which I've never heard of. I don't think DayZ is launch. I know for a fact The Witness isn't, not sure about the others.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

I don't know why Garnett thinks it will be so tough for people to switch systems. Some people quit gaming, some people stay, and others move on, new people hop on. Achievements or trophies aren't that important for the mass market to stay with one console over another for this reason alone.

Everything transfers though. The gamertag, the achievements, and the friends list. If you paid up on live until 2018 that transfers to Xbox One. all you have to do is plug the console in, login (install updates) and start playing. And with Sony giving up there free online trump card there's even less incentive to switch over if you're already deep in the Live ecosystem.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

I don't see the PS4 taking off from the others like the PS2 and the reason is simple, we won't be seeing the same lopsided affair of software from 3rd party publishers. At least outside of Japan, and those account for most of the library in all of Playstation consoles in the past.

I think Sony is the best company that serves the interest of gamers out of the three but do we really want to have the old arrogant Sony back? There was no pressure from either Nintendo or Microsoft to build and price the PS3 as they did when the PS2 did so well. It was Sony's decision to make the hardware difficult for game developers, split the RAM and get consumers to pay upwards of $600. That isn't implying that will happen with the PS5 if the PS4 breaks records but when competition fails to be a threat that is when these companies become complacent.

 

[Thorgal]

I don't think anyone is ever going to repeat what happened with the PS2. Back then so many third parties, particularly Japanese ones, just made their game exclusive to the PS2. It basically created a situation where the PS2 was the blatant, obvious, undisputed option for gamers.

I definitely expect the PS4 to win this gen, but I don't think the XB1 is gonna get buried. Especially if Microsoft comes to their senses eventually and removes the Kinect to dramatically lower the price.

Depending on how sales are going to be and MS stops being stubborn. Just massively cutting their price Might not be enough to turn the tide .

If MS gets their ass handed to them on a silver platter and Sony gets most of the market and mindshare behind them Then MS have lost the fight already .

It was a different time and gen but i don't think many people jumped from PS2 to Gamecube when its price went down to a $100 .

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

Everything transfers though. The gamertag, the achievements, and the friends list. If you paid up on live until 2018 that transfers to Xbox One. all you have to do is plug the console in, login (install updates) and start playing. And with Sony giving up there free online trump card there's even less incentive to switch over if you're already deep in the Live ecosystem.

By the looks of it, plenty of people are switching though. Parity in sales in the US and UK would be a big win for Sony.

 

[Canis lupus]

My prediction

Worldwide:
PS4 60% ~100 million
Xbone 28% ~65 million
WiiU 12% ~25 million

 

[noobasuar]

Also lets face it, Titanfall on the Xbone will outsell all Ps4 exclusives combined in the first year.

It's going to be another Gears of War situation.

 

[StuBurns]

Also lets face it, Titanfall on the Xbone will outsell all Ps4 exclusives combined in the first year.

It's going to be another Gears of War situation.

Uncharted 4 will outsell the XBO version of TitanFall. If you're talking about all three versions, sure.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

Depending on how sales are going to be and MS stops being stubborn. Just massively cutting their price Might not be enough to turn the tide .

If MS gets their ass handed to them on a silver platter and Sony gets most of the market and mindshare behind them Then MS have lost the fight already .

It was a different time and gen but i don't think many people jumped from PS2 to Gamecube when its price went down to a $100 .

Using the Gamecube is a terrible example. Nintendo had issues and still has issues securing 3rd party content. This was also the case with the original XBox. I don't see that happening outside of Japanese titles where all of the sudden these big publishers will ignore the XBox One. GTA was the biggest franchise and the PS2 was the system to get it on and Sony secured timed exclusive deals with Rockstar. We have seen with the XBox 360 how Microsoft got parity back in place. Games cost too much to secure exclusive deals to the point we saw then.

Also whether Microsoft is lying or not they too are happy to announce preorders are high with their biggest launch ever. What we should be excited for is the notion console gaming is far from dead.

 

[ZealousD]

anyone have the gif of current gen so far?

 

[RoboPlato]

Also lets face it, Titanfall on the Xbone will outsell all Ps4 exclusives combined in the first year.

It's going to be another Gears of War situation.

Gears of War wasn't released on two other platforms simultaneously.

 

[KimonoNoNo]

Did they even mention Killzone SF once? I know it's not a huge seller but people should not dismiss it as a great launch title.

Killzone is carrying a lot of baggage from last/current gen, the same to a lesser extent with Infamous.

 

[StoopKid]

Also lets face it, Titanfall on the Xbone will outsell all Ps4 exclusives combined in the first year.

It's going to be another Gears of War situation.

 

[Loris146]

Also lets face it, Titanfall on the Xbone will outsell all Ps4 exclusives combined in the first year.

It's going to be another Gears of War situation.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

That's not accurate, the PS3 is currently 1 million ahead (300,000 off 80 million). It can't be using old statistics either because the Wii numbers are spot on. This has the PS3 3 million behind as of now? LOL.

 

[BruiserBear]

Everything transfers though. The gamertag, the achievements, and the friends list. If you paid up on live until 2018 that transfers to Xbox One. all you have to do is plug the console in, login (install updates) and start playing. And with Sony giving up there free online trump card there's even less incentive to switch over if you're already deep in the Live ecosystem.

If someone is paid up on Live through 2018, they were never going anywhere to begin with. They're in about as far as you can be in.

I think that is a small minority of 360 owners though.

 

[noobasuar]

Uncharted 4 will outsell the XBO version of TitanFall. If you're talking about all three versions, sure.

I do have to wonder how well Uncharted 4 will. I always thought it sold as well as it did because of the WOW factor of the graphics. I just don't know if people are still going to buy a new one for the wow factor or not. It will be interesting to see.

Gears of War wasn't released on two other platforms simultaneously.

You're right. I didn't really think about that. But I still maintain that Titanfall will be the biggest selling exclusive between the PS4 and Xbone.

 

[DerZuhälter]

My prediction

Worldwide:
PS4 60% ~100 million
Xbone 28% ~65 million
WiiU 12% ~25 million

That's generous. Let's see how big of a dent Smash, Kart & Mario are going to leave til Q2/14. If it isn't @ 8-10 by then WiiU is dead.

 

[Crawl]

Can someone post the return of the king cover with the kaz face again? thanks!

 

[digoutyoursoul]

By the looks of it, plenty of people are switching though. Parity in sales in the US and UK would be a big win for Sony.

Few of my 360 friends here in the UK are making the switch. I will end up owning both personally, will be games I don't want to miss out on

 

[KAL2006]

Also lets face it, Titanfall on the Xbone will outsell all Ps4 exclusives combined in the first year.

It's going to be another Gears of War situation.

I agree with this kind of, however not all PS4 exclusives combined but I bet no PS4 exclusive will sell as much as TitanFall. However I also expect TitanFall to be time exclusive and TitanFall 2 to be a multiplatform game from day one. Basically a Mass Effect or Bioshock situation where the franchise starts out exclusively on one system. We also have to remember Sony hasn't shown their hand fully when it comes to exclusives. We don't know if Media Molecule, Naughty Dog, Guerilla Games 2nd team or Santa Monica will have a game in time for next year. And all the Studios I just mentioned are making new IP's so any of the games they are making can be the next big thing.

 

[Jeels]

Damn, it's pretty amazing how quickly Microsoft was able to make up huge ground with the 360. Sony really let it go with the PS3.

A year head start and $200 cheaper, plus a few moneyhats here and there. None of these are the case this gen...It wasn't amazing at all. It was all Sony's blunders and Sony have managed to surpass them by the end of the gen (not that it matters at this stage, but with international markets Sony is poised to still make a nice chunk of money on the PS3 if its anything like the PS2).

 

[StuBurns]

But I still maintain that Titanfall will be the biggest selling exclusive between the PS4 and Xbone.

You didn't say that, you said it would outsell them all combined.

 

[Crawl]

 

[Thorgal]

Using the Gamecube is a terrible example. Nintendo had issues and still has issues securing 3rd party content. This was also the case with the original XBox. I don't see that happening outside of Japanese titles where all of the sudden these big publishers will ignore the XBox One. GTA was the biggest franchise and the PS2 was the system to get it on and Sony secured timed exclusive deals with Rockstar. We have seen with the XBox 360 how Microsoft got parity back in place. Games cost too much to secure exclusive deals to the point we saw then.

Also whether Microsoft is lying or not they too are happy to announce preorders are high with their biggest launch ever. What we should be excited for is the notion console gaming is far from dead.

Could have used a better example but the main point is that MS massively cutting the price afterwards is not the end all be all solution to solve all their current problems.