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Can Nintendo really turn the Wii U around?

nhlducks35 said:
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Thanks to Aquamarine for the graph

The Wii U is falling farther and farther behind the Gamecube in terms of sales after release. I don't think that Wind Waker HD, SM3DW, and a price drop can help salvage the system. The Wii U could very well end up with only 15-20 million sales when all is said and done.

What do you guys think?

Edit: For people asking, I mean getting around Gamecube level of sales in 5-6 years.
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THERE's a HUGE HUGE HUGE problem with this graph. Why doesn't it show us prices? I can throw points on a graph, and make anything look good/bad by not presenting all the relevant data.

What happened within 6 months of the GameCube releasing? Something BIG, that would explain the uptick in sales?
 
CoffeeGames said:
THERE's a HUGE HUGE HUGE problem with this graph. Why doesn't it show us prices? I can throw points on a graph, and make anything look good/bad by not presenting all the relevant data.

What happened within 6 months of the GameCube releasing? Something BIG, that would explain the uptick in sales?
Click to expand...

Price information isn't going to help considering we were told that the Wii U controller is expensive to make. It's the centerpiece of the console. It's like Nintendo's BDROM this generation.
 
CoffeeGames said:
THERE's a HUGE HUGE HUGE problem with this graph. Why doesn't it show us prices? I can throw points on a graph, and make anything look good/bad by not presenting all the relevant data.

What happened within 6 months of the GameCube releasing? Something BIG, that would explain the uptick in sales?
Click to expand...

1) You can't completely rule out inflation. So GameCube prices in 2002, if presented linearly with Wii U prices in 2013, don't exactly match consumer perception of said prices in their respective time periods.

2) The Wii U and the GameCube released exactly the same day in the USA. The purpose of the chart is to compare relative sales performance---nothing more.

3) The GameCube had a price cut around May-June 2002 which partially contributed to an increase in sales. But that's not the purpose of the chart...its only intent is to show an increasing rift between the LTD sales of the two consoles.
 
BishopLamont said:
Ok so lets say RE sold 1.6M consoles, out of the 20M consoles, is it Nintendo or Resident Evil that sold the majority of the consoles? Like I said, third parties were a non factor.
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you're missing the point. The Gamecube could likely sell over 10 million consoles with no games at all, just on fans that assume games are coming or refuse to play anything else. Hell, the N64 sold on little more than Mario 64 and Mario Kart for what..a year? The PS3 was in the same boat at launch- no real games, but hardcore fans picking it up on the *assumption* that games are coming, or those that decide that one game is worth the cost of a console despite everything else. These gamers are in the minority.

if you want to sell to just the hardcore fans, you need third party. The Xbox had one great first party game, yet TONS of high quality third party and outsold the gamecube despite no sales in japan. If third party was a "non factor" that wouldn't have happened.

Third party being a factor is what stalled the gamecube's sales at 20 million. Outside of resident evil, it simply wasn't there. Nintendo's first party is not strong enough to carry a console on it's own- The N64 had the same problem and got destroyed by the PS1 which relied on third parties, and by the time next gen rolled around Nintendo lost almost HALF of their userbase- from about 35 million down to 20.

Nintendo's first party didn't go anywhere. Mario, Metroid, Zelda, Smash Brothers- all still there. it didn't stop nintendo from bleeding customers to the competition that offered better third party content.
 
Randolph Freelander said:
Right now, we're trying to find reasons it will recover enough to overtake GameCube.
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Nintendo's first party? They're much stronger now then they were during the Gamecube era. A first year with a high priced console without a majority of their first year's lineup not even out yet doesn't mean its all over.

Manmademan said:
you're missing the point. The Gamecube could likely sell over 10 million consoles with no games at all, just on fans that assume games are coming or refuse to play anything else. The PS3 was in the same boat- hardcore fans picking it up on the *assumption* that games are coming, or those that decide that one game is worth the cost of a console despite everything else. These gamers are in the minority.

if you want to sell to just the hardcore fans, you need third party. The Xbox had one great first party game, yet TONS of high quality third party and outsold the gamecube. If third party was a "non factor" that wouldn't have happened.

Third party being a factor is what stalled the gamecube's sales at 20 million. Outside of resident evil, it simply wasn't there. Nintendo's first party is not strong enough to carry a console on it's own- The N64 had the same problem and got destroyed by the PS1 which relied on third parties, and by the time next gen rolled around Nintendo lost almost HALF of their userbase- from about 35 million down to 20.

Nintendo's first party didn't go anywhere. Mario, Metroid, Zelda, Smash Brothers- all still there. it didn't stop nintendo from bleeding customers to the competition that offered better third party content.
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I already said good third party support will push consoles, but Gamecube never had good third party support, its a non factor because it was not good third party support, get that through your head. You're saying stuff that is already obvious, and completely missing my point.
 
How does a system become unsalvageable? With the release schedule its inevitable that sales will pick up and once sales pick up it'll be fine. Or do you define unsalvageable as x number of systems sold in x amount of time.
 
Nintendo has established over the last decade or so a very basic release pattern of one major title every 3-4 months (though this year it's been more like 6-9) with gaps filled in with low-budget party / gimmicky games.

I really don't think it's going to work this time. I could see the console starting to take off somewhat maybe around the end of 2014 if they actually do release all the games they've shown/talked about, lower the price to $250, and have a burst of 3rd party titles from major Japanese developers as well.

But nah, the console is going to struggle to hit 20 million in my opinion. And being the successor to the Wii, that is disastrous.
 
Short answer: No.

Long answer: No way in hell.

Seriously, I just dont see how Nintendo can get this to acceptable levels for them coming off the success that was the Wii. With that said, Im sure it will be a bigger money-maker for them in the end than both the Xbox One and PS4.
 
H_Prestige said:
No, they don't "always" come up with a saving throw. They've had two failed consoles before, and so far wii u is on track to perform even worse. If Nintendo had secret console reviving magic, they would have used it on the n64 and gc. They would be using it right now.
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They couldn't do it a decade ago, but they did it twice in a row since. Wouldn't the more logical conclusion be that they learned how to turn things around? Maybe they're not using whatever magic they came up with right now because they can't? Because quality software doesn't materialize out of thin air? Food for thought...
 
Before E3 I would have said, maybe.

Now? Things look much worse to me. They just don't have a very diverse lineup of games coming to the system. Between now, and the end of next year they'll have to dramatically ramp up production so that they can provide a decent library by themselves, because 3rd party's aren't going to touch it without some serious moneyhatting.

They seem to be floundering at the moment, trying to come to grips with the complexities of HD development. Unless they have quite a few interesting games under wraps, preferably some that cater to a wider audience beyond their normal niches, then I don't know how they'll manage. The fact that Retro was being wasted on a Donkey Kong 2D platformer should tell you everything you need to know about how ill-prepared they are for the current situation.

It wouldn't surprise me if the system does much worse than Gamecube.

But then again, I do think they have more time to turn it around than many may believe. Wii U could potentially have a surge late next year if they do get the right games out. I don't see xbone doing very well, which means there might be more room for the wii u to recover once the price goes down into the 250 range.
 
Yamauchi said:
Nintendo has established over the last decade or so a very basic release pattern of one major title every 3-4 months (though this year it's been more like 6-9) with gaps filled in with low-budget party / gimmicky games.

I really don't think it's going to work this time. I could see the console starting to take off somewhat maybe around the end of 2014 if they actually do release all the games they've shown/talked about, lower the price to $250, and have a burst of 3rd party titles from major Japanese developers as well.

But nah, the console is going to struggle to hit 20 million in my opinion. And being the successor to the Wii, that is disastrous.
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exactly. part of the reason for this is that Nintendo is just NOW struggling with the transition to HD gaming that every other company got out of their system years ago. They're not going to be able to crank out high quality HD content at the pace they put out N64 or GC games. Thus the first party is going to suffer, and the third party simply isn't there.

I don't see any reason this thing will outsell the GC.
 
Yeah, they can. Once the game library grows sufficiently and Nintendo maybe drops the price, it'll be hard to resist. I'm getting closer to buying one myself.
 
wsippel said:
They couldn't do it a decade ago, but they did it twice in a row since. Wouldn't the more logical conclusion be that they learned how to turn things around? Maybe they're not using it right now because they can't? Because quality software doesn't materialize out of thin air? Food for thought...
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Are you talking about DS and 3DS? Because Nintendo sure as hell didn't do that on their own. And the 3DS will never catch the DS despite that. Not to mention the differences in the console and handheld markets.
 
I'm more interested in just what the hell will Nintendo do with Wii U after 2015?

What comes after Mario and Zelda when they release? They also got no third party support to cover the gaps. It's almost like a disaster is on the way and they're doing nothing to stop it.
 
Aquamarine said:
1) You can't completely rule out inflation. So GameCube prices in 2002, if presented linearly with Wii U prices in 2013, don't exactly match consumer perception of said prices in their respective time periods.

2) The Wii U and the GameCube released exactly the same day in the USA. The purpose of the chart is to compare relative sales performance---nothing more.

3) The GameCube had a price cut around May-June 2002 which partially contributed to an increase in sales. But that's not the purpose of the chart...its only intent is to show an increasing rift between the LTD sales of the two consoles.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't have excluded a few months of sales, then.
 
IrishNinja said:
they're already doing the 3DS strategy: inevitable pricecut, new big mario game + kart and stuff...itll happen, i feel confident saying it'll pass GC & N64 #'s but will it break half what the wii did? it could, but from where we stand now, i don't know





tired broken record is mad tired
the man's very clearly not going anwyhere, time to let this go or stick to apple threads dude
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I'll post where and what I want, thanks.

Once Iwata's gone and the ship is turned around, I'll be happy to let it go.
 
Absolutely. Nintendo has been barely marketing it because they know they don't have any games to show. Come December there will be plenty to show off. The Wii U isn't even a year old yet.

August - Pikmin 3
September - Wonderful 101
October - Wind Waker HD
November - Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
December - Mario 3D World

Not to mention heavy hitters like Smash and Kart coming in 2014, the latter of which is early 2014.
 
greg400 said:
Absolutely. Nintendo has been barely marketing it because they know they don't have any games to show. Come December there will be plenty to show off. The Wii U isn't even a year old yet.

August - Pikmin 3
September - Wonderful 101
October - Wind Waker HD, Wii Party U, Sonic: Lost World
November - Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze
December - Mario 3D World, Wii Fit U

Not to mention heavy hitters like Smash and Kart coming in 2014, the latter of which is early 2014.
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Added some. It's not a mind-blowing line-up, but it's solid and more rounded than what the 3DS had in the same time-period in 2011.
 
H_Prestige said:
All of them combined? Not sure how I'm supposed to pinpoint which game sold how many consoles.

You want me to say NSMB, right? WiiU already has that game and I don't think it sold 20M systems...
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The correct answer is Nintendo's first party. In other words, they pretty much did do it on their own for the most part.
 
That's up to Nintendo. First of all, they have to make people aware of the system, then they have to entice people beyond the Nintendo faithful to buy their games. I think it's possible, but it will take a massive effort from Nintendo. It won't ever become a massive success of course, but it could potentially outsell the Gamecube. This years E3 I feel was a small step in the right direction, with a decent software selection in the second half of 2013 that looks only to get better in 2014.

I think it's a certainty that the Wii U will improve greatly for Nintendo fans, at the very least.
 
If you consider GameCube sales to be good then I see them achieving that level. The tablet controller was a dumb idea though that's going to bite them in the ass.
 
i think the wii u will be a very definite third place console this gen. i think the only one that has a chance of doing worse is the xbox, but i don't think microsoft's marketing will let that happen.

that said, if 'turning it around' means giving the system some life for the next three years or so... yes. i think nintendo can 'turn it around' and support the console through partnerships and first-party titles. those will have to be forged and developed now, though, as it will become impossible if things are even around gamecube levels later next year.

it's a pretty dire situation, and i don't think mario kart and super mario 3d world are going to be the win buttons for them, but increased awareness of the console surely couldn't hurt. seeing advertisements for new games month after month would be a good thing. lego city undercover sold 100k on a system with barely 1m users in its first month, and that was due to some good advertising. there is an audience that wants games for the machine, and i think nintendo can make it larger.
 
Nope, it's over. They needed stuff like Mario Kart and Smash for this year - their big titles aren't coming out until 2014 and by then it'll be too late.

Best case scenario it'll end up with Gamecube level sales and that's not good.
 
Sean said:
Nope, it's over. They needed stuff like Mario Kart and Smash for this year - their big titles aren't coming out until 2014 and by then it'll be too late.

Best case scenario it'll end up with Gamecube level sales and that's not good.
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Why would it be too late? And GCN level sales are much better than the terrible mess the Wii U is heading towards.
 
no, the PS3 only did it because it was the best console of the generation

Wii U is quite literally the worst, it doesn't have the chance to show us something we can get 10x better somewhere else , the Wii was a fad and the novelty has worn off, Not even Nintendo is going big on motion controls anymore, so now they are back to square one, their best hope is to tough it out and try again next time
 
Evolution_1ne said:
no, the PS3 only did it because it was the best console of the generation

Wii U is quite literally the worst, it doesn't have the chance to show us something we can get 10x better somewhere else , the Wii was a fad and the novelty has worn off, Not even Nintendo is going big on motion controls anymore, so now they are back to square one, their best hope is to tough if it out and try again next time
Click to expand...

Ah, I love stuff like this. It's literally the worst this gen? We don't even have the other two out yet and it may be the weakest but who knows how it will do when they actually come out. People like you are just funny.

CoffeeGames said:
What happened within 6 months of the GameCube releasing? Something BIG, that would explain the uptick in sales?
Click to expand...

Pikmin and Smash were released within a month of the GCN launching in America for one thing.
 
Evolution_1ne said:
no, the PS3 only did it because it was the best console of the generation

Wii U is quite literally the worst, it doesn't have the chance to show us something we can get 10x better somewhere else , the Wii was a fad and the novelty has worn off, Not even Nintendo is going big on motion controls anymore, so now they are back to square one, their best hope is to tough if it out and try again next time
Click to expand...

Wii selling 100 million is a fad? I wish I can make a fad than.
 
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