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Cyberpunk 2077 is a complete long term disaster, knocks down value of CD Projekt RED by a whopping 75%. No longer Poland's biggest game studio

Bartski

Gold Member

A new report from Business Insider Poland paints a grim picture for CD Projekt: the company's value has cratered by over 75% since just before the launch of Cyberpunk 2077. A business that once boasted a market capitalisation of over 40 billion Polish złoty—briefly becoming the most valuable games company in Europe—is now worth less than zł10 billion.

In the weeks leading up to Cyberpunk's launch, CDP shares were trading at around zł400 each, hitting zł443 a share only 6 days before the game's release. The story since then has been one of sharp falls and brief plateaus: with CDP shares and market cap halving in value in the first few months of 2021, then almost halving again since the end of March this year.

Perhaps more galling for CDP is the possibility that they are no longer Poland's biggest game studio. Business Insider Poland draws on some maths done by Puls Biznesu, a Polish business daily, to suggest that Techland might now be Poland's biggest game company by market cap. The numbers on this one are pretty fuzzy, though: Techland aren't listed on a stock exchange, so Puls Biznesu had to guess at what their share price would be to arrive at its final estimate of a market cap of around zł10.6 billion.
 
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TastyPastry

Member
i wonder if they regret launching the game in 2020 now, maybe they should have just delayed the game for 2 more years even it would have cost them a lot but man, what were they thinking? they should have gone with a third person rpg from the beginning like it was planned at the start instead of trying to chase every trend at the same time: a borderlands shooter rpg with loot, a deep rpg and on top of that a fully simulated city with traffic and everything. they should have known this project was going to fail, they never had the technology nor the talent to simulate a futuristic city. they can't even make decent enemy AI.

i wonder what's going to happen with the expansion. they seem to already have cancelled the second one so are they going to half ass the first one and once the anime and the new game by the molasses flood (which will probably be a cyberpunk game) are out, drop the IP completly or will there eventually be a cyberpunk sequel?

edit: also as a huge fan and nerd of the cyberpunk genre it just makes me sad that seemingly every cyberpunk project fails. deus ex doesn't sell well and who knows if and when we're going to see a new one. cyberpunk failed. blade runner 2049 bombed. it's like the genre is cursed.
 
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Flabagast

Member
I hadn't heard of Techland, but it looks like they the Dying Light people. I didn't realize Dying Light was at that level.
Dying Light 1 sold like 20+ millions, it was a really big success (and with incredible legs to boot).

The 2 really came and went though despite a first really solid first month. I’d be surprised if it ever reached 10 millions (which is still huge in itself)
 

Ellery

Member
Suggests to me that they are undervalued right now. Cyberpunk may have been a high profile disappointment in many ways, but it was still profitable, and they still have The Witcher and honestly even another Cyberpunk would probably do well if it was released in good shape.

Right now they are slightly undervalued if we go by current earnings, but the question is what are the expectations for CD Projekt RED in the years to come. I am not sure what they have in the pipeline and a question how much you trust and understand what the managers are doing there. That coupled with the macro environment and everyone needs to form their own opinion regarding that.

But I also think it is an interesting stock to look at and swift action depending on news might be well worth it for CD Projekt RED. I am missing a gigaton announcement from them though. Something that would sell 10-20 million units in the next 2 years and I don't think they have.
 
Right now they are slightly undervalued if we go by current earnings, but the question is what are the expectations for CD Projekt RED in the years to come. I am not sure what they have in the pipeline and a question how much you trust and understand what the managers are doing there. That coupled with the macro environment and everyone needs to form their own opinion regarding that.

But I also think it is an interesting stock to look at and swift action depending on news might be well worth it for CD Projekt RED. I am missing a gigaton announcement from them though. Something that would sell 10-20 million units in the next 2 years and I don't think they have.

Maybe the Cyberpunk expansions will give it a big boost but I wouldn't bet on those. I'll probably start building a position when Witcher 4 is a year or two out from release
 

Ellery

Member
Stock market has crashed globally, it doesn't mean it's because of CP2077.

Would you be so kind as to explain? CD Projekt RED lost 75% since 2020. Global stock markets since 2020 are still up and just recently this year we have lost some ground from the ATH after the Central Bankers sold all of their positions, then banned trading for them and then started QT.
 

SF Kosmo

...please disperse...
Right now they are slightly undervalued if we go by current earnings, but the question is what are the expectations for CD Projekt RED in the years to come. I am not sure what they have in the pipeline and a question how much you trust and understand what the managers are doing there. That coupled with the macro environment and everyone needs to form their own opinion regarding that.

But I also think it is an interesting stock to look at and swift action depending on news might be well worth it for CD Projekt RED. I am missing a gigaton announcement from them though. Something that would sell 10-20 million units in the next 2 years and I don't think they have.
We know what they have in the pipe, it's Witcher 4, which will probably be huge.

I don't think management is gonna make the same mistake twice. Their move to Unreal Engine 5 shows they are prioritizing a stable technical foundations after the mistakes of Cyberpunk. I think they're gonna be alright.
 

CitizenZ

Banned
I remember when this was a talking point couple of yrs ago. Only about 1% control what happens with that perception and value of a stock and trust me, they made bank. The reason being, ask yourself this, why would a game co. with only 1 successful game, be somehow valued 4 times their worth without really doing anything? Come one, but as i said with 1% control there are 99% suckers.
 

Ellery

Member
We know what they have in the pipe, it's Witcher 4, which will probably be huge.

I don't think management is gonna make the same mistake twice. Their move to Unreal Engine 5 shows they are prioritizing a stable technical foundations after the mistakes of Cyberpunk. I think they're gonna be alright.

I certainly hope so too and as a long term play it might be a good investment. Maybe it becomes an even better investment if the short to mid term looks bad and declining earnings make investors move out allowing us a better entry.
(This is pure speculation on my end, but we will know by Nov 28 how the next two earning quarters look)

I remember when this was a talking point couple of yrs ago. Only about 1% control what happens with that perception and value of a stock and trust me, they made bank. The reason being, ask yourself this, why would a game co. with only 1 successful game, be somehow valued 4 times their worth without really doing anything? Come one, but as i said with 1% control there are 99% suckers.

Could you expand on that? I am confused and not sure what you mean by 1% control and 99% suckers.
 
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artsi

Member
Would you be so kind as to explain? CD Projekt RED lost 75% since 2020. Global stock markets since 2020 are still up and just recently this year we have lost some ground from the ATH after the Central Bankers sold all of their positions, then banned trading for them and then started QT.

2020-2021 decline was most likely due to CP2077 but 2022 experienced another big drop which happened same time as the market crashed overall.
 

killatopak

Gold Member
They probably thought they could get away with a couple of bugs just like in Witcher 3.

Too bad the problem was much worse than their previous game.
 

Belthazar

Member
Not only that, but their value in dollars declined even more than 75% due to how the zloty devalued in the last couple years.
 

Belthazar

Member
Their move to Unreal Engine 5 shows they are prioritizing a stable technical foundations after the mistakes of Cyberpunk. I think they're gonna be alright.

Yeah, but to also means that their most senior staff will have to work on an engine they're not awfully familiar with. There will be a learning curve and development will have to take that time into account.
 

Umbasaborne

Member
dear devs, please dont release the game if its not ready, it will bite you hard in the end.
Yeah, i think cyberpunk was a big “scared straight” experience for much of the AAA games industry. Within months CD projekt lost all of the good will they gained, and cyberpunk, what was their biggest game of all time, does not have the sales legs they need to support them during the years it will take to make the next witcher game. Really, when you look at cyberpunk, its no wonder so many big games are delayed for years now, no one wants to be the “next cyberpunk”. The real shame is that there are parts of cyberpunk that are really great, And i can only imagine how much better the game would have been if it had gotten the two extra years of development it needed.
 

levyjl1988

Member
Didn’t their expansion also leaked from their patches as well… they really need to overhaul the fame if they want to give it some traction. They really have to pull a No Man’s Sky. That initial reception was poorly received.
 

CitizenZ

Banned
I certainly hope so too and as a long term play it might be a good investment. Maybe it becomes an even better investment if the short to mid term looks bad and declining earnings make investors move out allowing us a better entry.
(This is pure speculation on my end, but we will know by Nov 28 how the next two earning quarters look)



Could you expand on that? I am confused and not sure what you mean by 1% control and 99% suckers.

The 1% are the ones who have the money, start trends, have millions of shares. Anyone who thought a game co. based off one game series was somehow worth 4 times their worth in a few yrs with nothing but hype as a ref are the 99%. This is an old tactic in US markets where you watch known stocks and you look for peaks and valleys, buy low, sell high. Simple, when its nothing but gambling and you have the $$$ to do so.

Just to add on, the first major spike was June 2018, interesting right after the trailer at E3, and then it starts to drastically die down. My guess is the 1% never thought it was going to surpass that price. However, hype continued, they are always in the convo since E3, remember it was CDPR this, CDPR that. EVEN after a -45% revenue report in 2019 it was still climbing, and guess who jumped back in? Didnt drop until they said, ok guys sell it.
 
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Ellery

Member
The 1% are the ones who have the money, start trends, have millions of shares. Anyone who thought a game co. based off one game series was somehow worth 4 times their worth in a few yrs with nothing but hype as a ref are the 99%. This is an old tactic in US markets where you watch known stocks and you look for peaks and valleys, buy low, sell high. Simple, when its nothing but gambling and you have the $$$ to do so.

Just to add on, the first major spike was June 2018, interesting right after the trailer at E3, and then it starts to drastically die down. My guess is the 1% never thought it was going to surpass that price. However, hype continued, they are always in the convo since E3, remember it was CDPR this, CDPR that. EVEN after a -45% revenue report in 2019 it was still climbing, and guess who jumped back in? Didnt drop until they said, ok guys sell it.

Do you have any other stocks that you are looking at where you see similar behavior of the 1% and the 99%?

In hindsight it seemingly always makes sense when big holder are selling or interpretations of events in general.
 

imsosleepy

Member
I'll never understand how they thought it was a good idea to release this 2 years before it was completed
wanted to please their investors who did not wanne wait anymore probably or something. Its weird coz both the owners were like billionaires? had all the money in the world... And yet rushed this project so fucking bad...
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Cyberpunk will always live in infamy and deservedly so.

BUT I played through the game in it's most recent state on my Xbox Series X and it actually ran and performed fine. It's actually pretty stable now after an 80 hour playthrough. How it performs on a regular Xbox and PS4 is unknown to me. Cyberpunk for me was a pretty damn good game when all was said and done.

CDPR clearly let the success of the WItcher 3 go to their head and they tried to do too much with Cyberpunk.

If I were CDPR I would make sure the next gen version of Witcher 3 is solid and then work on a remake of the the first 2 games. Don't be overly ambitious, play it safe.

Finally, make DAMN sure that WItcher 4 is outstanding.
 

JohnnyFootball

GerAlt-Right. Ciriously.
Didn’t their expansion also leaked from their patches as well… they really need to overhaul the fame if they want to give it some traction. They really have to pull a No Man’s Sky. That initial reception was poorly received.
Cyberpunk 2077 is actually a pretty decent game now. I just did an 80 hour playthrough on my Xbox Series X. It ran OK (can look ugly in performance mode) and I didn't have any major issues aside from immersion breaking pop in. As for how it performs on PS4 and XSX that I don't know.

The game clearly got crushed by it's own ambition. While Witcher 3 was greater than the sum of it's parts, Cyberpunk 2077 was equal to the sum of it's parts. I do think that it's worth checking out as it offers a lot of flexibility in how to tackle scenarios.
 

Nautilus

Member
"Disaster" lol.

Yeah, the whole situation was a disaster, and the game could have easily sold double the ammount. But it still did ~ 15 million, and once the dust settles(even further), CD Red is going to keep porting the game to a bazillion systems and keep making money out of it indefinitely, just as it does with the Witcher 3.
 
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