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December 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)
- Thread starter jvm
- Start date
Sho_Nuff82
Member
You can probably buy a PS2 and a dozen of the best PS2 games for less than the price of any of the current consoles. Pretty good deal for people wanting to catch up on some classics.Karram said:
Megadragon15
Member
From this post: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24950297&postcount=3349Karram said:
charlequin said:
SlipperySlope
Banned
JoshuaJSlone said:
That makes all of the systems look good. Didn't know the PS2 was already down that much by Y4 before entering this thread.
Edit - PS2 went from 8.2 to 4.7 in a few years, then bumped to 5.5? I wonder what caused the bump. Price drop?
boiled goose
good with gravy
Wow at the 360 resurgence. quite an aberration.
the reason why nintendo is launching 3ds is because while the ds is still selling, it seems that software spending has decreased which means that the userbase is not completely active anymore.
Wii's software decline is also worrisome. also shows a decline in userbase activity.
the sales of the ps2 in its top years do show that everyone is doing ok, even the ps3. the market has expanded for sure.
the reason why nintendo is launching 3ds is because while the ds is still selling, it seems that software spending has decreased which means that the userbase is not completely active anymore.
Wii's software decline is also worrisome. also shows a decline in userbase activity.
the sales of the ps2 in its top years do show that everyone is doing ok, even the ps3. the market has expanded for sure.
Tiktaalik said:
In Iwata's last briefing in November, he showed charts of Nintendo's own surveys that indicate that they are doing just that.
(Transitions does not indicate this is a difference graph, by the way--it's just Iwata's word for a chart that shows absolute numbers over time.)
Beer Monkey
Member
360 has sold double the hardware units as Xbox 1 and is still going strong. I remember early this gen when tons of people said 360 was going to be Xbox redux.
Things break?
Karram said:
Things break?
Beer Monkey said:
Yeah, still difficult to believe that 50 millions of X360 were sold in the world.
But again, who would have thought during Spring 2006 that five years later we would have
- 80 millions Wii
- 50 millions X360
- 40 millions PS3
and
- 145 millions DS
- 65 millions PSP ?
First those numbers are gigantic. And then look at the order and finally, look at the gaps....
Imagine if back in 2006 you were allowed to have access to this very thread :lol
pixel monkey
Banned
amtentori said:
Why exactly is it an "aberration" that the X360 has become the leader in the marketplace? Has the Wii, in its current form, not reached a soccer mom saturation point? Has the PS3 Move not lost to Kinect with Sony even admitting as much with the Move's disappearance from public view? Does anyone (other than the PS3 fanboys, mind you) honestly see any way that Sony actually overtakes MS and Nintendo?
These sales figures appear to be much less an "aberration" and more so, a fundamental tectonic shift in the ongoing battles between the three platforms.
The math is simply that...math.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
pixel monkey said:
I think he simply means that in the 5th year, the sales are going up, whereas history would generally point to console sales trending down at this point in its life.
The up front pricing of the PS3 and 360 being well outside of the acceptable mainstream level is obviously the source of their wacky growth curves. They might have sold significantly more in 2007 and 2008 if they were $250 or less, and their sales would probably be on the downside at this stage of the generation.
I still think both HD consoles have one significant sales spike left; when they reach $199 (for the Elite and/or Kinect bundle, or for the vanilla 160GB PS3) both will have their respective best year of sales, and then we will see the normal decline.
pixel monkey
Banned
Sho_Nuff82 said:
With Microsoft's aggressive approach not only to pricing, but to the flexibility of the platform through dashboard updates and the Kinect launch, and Sony's addition of 3D game and Blu-Ray support, as well as the Move, does anyone actually think for a minute that we'll see new systems from these manufacturers before the 2015 holidays?
If you do, you're kidding yourself. The market, and this economic climate, simply aren't ready to support the transition.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
jvm said:Additional images that I never got around to using:
(Included in article, added here for completeness.)
Shame these aren't on the same scale, JVM.
BishopLamont
Banned
2015? :lol
pixel monkey
Banned
Celine said:
If you count the PSP2 (another impending failure IMHO) and the next iteration of the Windows phone, then yes certainly.
BishopLamont said:
Home consoles? Really? To what gain? Forget the economic realities we're all living in right now, technologically speaking, with HD television penetration where it is and 3D televisions barely even making the smallest splash, what advantage would the PS4 and Xbox 720(?) really offer consumers before that 10 year life cycle ends?
Opus Angelorum
Member
pixel monkey said:
Competition alone will dictate when we will see the next generation of home consoles.
I absolutely guarantee you we will all have a new system in our homes by 2014, without question.
BishopLamont
Banned
We have two tech hungry companies competing with each other, one is lagging in third place amongst the consoles, do you think either company will let the other get the upper hand? How bout Nintendo? What if they release a much more powerful console and end up gobbling up the "hardcore gamers" because Sony and MS wants to milk their consoles for as long as they can? The 360 and PS3 will continue sell for awhile, launching a new console doesn't mean the instant death of its predecessor, that only happens if the company forces it, watch next year as the DS/Wii/3DS trifecta is in full force. All three companies are trying to find the next best gimmick, they can't be passive about it.pixel monkey said:
Forget what these consoles will mean to consumers, be concerned about what it will mean to the companies making them: tons of profits. Well at least that's what they hope.
I'm guessing you think Microsoft will launch latest?Opus Angelorum said:
pixel monkey
Banned
Opus Angelorum said:
So, if you're saying "by 2014", that means no later than a holiday 2013 launch. From Nintendo, certainly we'll see some sort of Wii HD upgrade by then, one that will not only be backwards compatible, but will I would hope and expect, like Dolphin on the PC, upgrade the visuals of the existing Wii library.
But from Microsoft and Sony? My point is, why would they invest so much to rush to market a product that Americans not only aren't clamoring for, but aren't even technologically ready for? Those of us on this board, with our bleeding edge obsession for the latest and greatest video cards, televisions and phones? Certainly, we'd gobble it up, but we're not who they are now catering to or looking to sell to. We already have all three systems in our homes, and we have for years.
They've proven who they're after...and it ain't us. I believe the Kinect and Move launches are all the evidence we need that MS and Sony are perfectly content to stay where they are (platform-wise) and instead plan to grow their user-base for the coming years.
Of course, I could be completely off base. We'll see.
Saint Gregory
Member
I seriously doubt that Microsoft won't launch their next console whenever Nintendo chooses to release their Wii successor. Unless the 360 is doing crazy Wii-circa-2008 numbers next year they're not going to let Nintendo start next gen without them. Sony will wait until 2013 but it's baically just a game of chicken right now between MS and Nintendo in regards to who announces their plans first.
somuchwater
Member
Something to consider around the next gen of consoles is to what extent hardware will play a role.
A lot of people on GAF are assuming that the next round of consoles will simply incorporate the new motion controls with more processing/graphics power.
I don't disagree fully, but I think more attention needs to be paid to the nature of the ecosystems that will launch concurrently with that new hardware. We know from both Xbox Live and the iOS ecosystem that there is enormous of amount of revenue - or at least revenue generating incentive - in those universes of content.
What I guess I'm saying is that an Xbox 720/PS4/Wii 2 will be useless without an online ecosystem that offers something markedly new, particularly in terms of social and media offerings. I'd be highly surprised, for example, if the PS4 isn't compatible with Ultraviolet content.
To keep this on topic, though: looking at these sales trends, there is a clear shift toward a kind of centralization of revenue creation. CoD, Kinect, core Nintendo franchises etc. are sustaining the industry- whatever 'long tail' economics may have once existed in gaming are evaporating, and it's likely the number of big retail releases will go down and smaller downloadable titles will go up. So in order to produce new streams of revenue, you'll see an increasing shift toward services and media and for-pay social features.
I just think it's a mistake to think about the next gen in terms of silicon budgets, GPU capabilities or anything else that isn't about sustaining an ecosystem beyond the console itself.
A lot of people on GAF are assuming that the next round of consoles will simply incorporate the new motion controls with more processing/graphics power.
I don't disagree fully, but I think more attention needs to be paid to the nature of the ecosystems that will launch concurrently with that new hardware. We know from both Xbox Live and the iOS ecosystem that there is enormous of amount of revenue - or at least revenue generating incentive - in those universes of content.
What I guess I'm saying is that an Xbox 720/PS4/Wii 2 will be useless without an online ecosystem that offers something markedly new, particularly in terms of social and media offerings. I'd be highly surprised, for example, if the PS4 isn't compatible with Ultraviolet content.
To keep this on topic, though: looking at these sales trends, there is a clear shift toward a kind of centralization of revenue creation. CoD, Kinect, core Nintendo franchises etc. are sustaining the industry- whatever 'long tail' economics may have once existed in gaming are evaporating, and it's likely the number of big retail releases will go down and smaller downloadable titles will go up. So in order to produce new streams of revenue, you'll see an increasing shift toward services and media and for-pay social features.
I just think it's a mistake to think about the next gen in terms of silicon budgets, GPU capabilities or anything else that isn't about sustaining an ecosystem beyond the console itself.
Opus Angelorum
Member
BishopLamont said:
I think the launches will be in this order:
1. Nintendo
2. Microsoft
3. Sony
Opus Angelorum said:
I think Nintendo will launch first because for tech reasons alone, but I suspect that Sony will want to launch before MS to try to beat them to the punch and build possibly an early lead. Launching last is something you can pull off if you're confident that people are waiting for you. Sony will not have that confidence and I'm sure they're fully intending to beat MS to the punch, and will if these Kinect numbers hold.
I think MS will build a new console first because pushes the Xbox brand to new hights, giving them confidence that they can have a more 'hardcore' machine on the market at the same time. Having both 'low-spec' and 'high-spec' hardware worked well for alot of companies outside the gaming industry. MS is looking at Apple and the likes and are trying to turn Xbox into the next 'iPod'.FLEABttn said:
On the other hand, Nintendo and Sony will (seemingly) both launch early because of the situation in Japan(if one launches a new console so will the other). Giving both their European and American offices a bit of a headache. In short I can't see MS play the waiting game in the US, just like I can't see Nintendo and Sony play the waiting game in Japan. Since Nintendo is so unpredictable, Sony might've bought into the Wii2 comes out in 2011 rumors and acted accordingly by having new hardware done by 2012.
pixel monkey
Banned
[Nintex] said:
I'd beg to differ. And instead of giving you one example, I'll give you two:
32X and Sega Saturn
Sega thought they could please everyone leading with the techies, while also giving those left behind some sense of solace, as well. Look where that got them.
boiled goose
good with gravy
pixel monkey said:
not sure leader in the marketplace leader is the correct term... (yet?)
The point I was trying to make was that large, sustainable momentum swings and sale increases late in the generation are really difficult to achieve. It seems that might be the case now, when it hasnt been shown in the past too often.
An aberration in terms of historical trends. nothing more. :/ you might have read too much into my statement
Tiktaalik said:
Big hardware sales but weak software. What's the deal? Are many of the existing DS's gathering dust in a drawer?
amtentori said:
Less and less third party support is a big factor in the software declines for the Wii. I believe they started pulling back in 2009 and more so in 2010. 2010 had some of the best third party games on the system though.
The Wii was never fully supported to began with , but you can't keep software sales healthy if less and less software is being released.
pixel monkey
Banned
amtentori said:An aberration in terms of historical trends. nothing more. :/ you might have read too much into my statement
I absolutely did, and I apologize for making that assumption.
Found a small error on page 2 regarding the two links (one letter off):
Then Kinect – a camera and software combination that permits users to control software with body motions – launched in November 2010 and hardware sales accelerated further. While December sales were up a less spectacular 42%, Larry “Major Nelson” Hryb of Microsoft claimed that the company had run out of consoles by the end of the month, suggesting that supply was at least somewhat constrained.
Oh, and a comment regarding this:
Then Kinect – a camera and software combination that permits users to control software with body motions – launched in November 2010 and hardware sales accelerated further. While December sales were up a less spectacular 42%, Larry “Major Nelson” Hryb of Microsoft claimed that the company had run out of consoles by the end of the month, suggesting that supply was at least somewhat constrained.
Oh, and a comment regarding this:
I didn't find this necessary as I'm reading this article for your analysis, not Patcher's.
Gotta agree with the monkey here. I don't think we'll be getting new consoles anytime soon, except for a Wii upgrade. Microsoft and Sony have already said that they expect this console cycle to last much longer. Microsoft essentially just had what they've termed a "console launch" with Kinect.pixel monkey said:
New consoles aren't in the cards, especially the way the economy has gone the last couple years, and the fact that we haven't even hit the sweet spot in the current generation's pricing. Wait until the PS3 is down to $199. Then we'll talk.
I think top 10s are basically dead at this point. I do have top 5 for each platform but the handhelds. I'm biding my time and hoping I can get the handhelds in a week or so.Takao said:
Also, I think people asked about new tie ratios. You can estimate them from the graphs I provided, I believe, but the new values are:
Xbox 360: 8.9
PS3: 7.7
Wii. 7.1
Hope that helps.
