Support NeoGAF

[jvm]

Hi, jvm, what is the font you used on "Same Vertical Scale"?

I think everything is Liberation Sans (standard font in Ubuntu version of OpenOffice 3.2, I think).

 

[legend166]

I think top 10s are basically dead at this point. I do have top 5 for each platform but the handhelds. I'm biding my time and hoping I can get the handhelds in a week or so.

Also, I think people asked about new tie ratios. You can estimate them from the graphs I provided, I believe, but the new values are:

Xbox 360: 8.9
PS3: 7.7
Wii. 7.1

Hope that helps.

Really shuts down the 'Wii owners don't buy games' crap a lot of people spill, when at the end of the day the average owner of the PS3 basically only owns one more game, and the average 360 owner two more games, than the average Wii owner.

I think it shows how 'casual' the audience is across all platforms, really.

Are we able to work out the 'x console owner buys a game every x weeks' thing that JoshuaJSlone (I think) used to do?

 

[donny2112]

Xbox 360: 8.9

I still remember a certain poster saying "Oh, it's bad news for a system to drop its tie ratio this late in the game." about the Wii a year or two back. The statement was wrong then, and the fact that 360's tie ratio dropped since Sept./Oct. isn't a bad sign, either. It's just showing that there was a big increase in hardware for the system. Denominator increasing at a faster rate than the numerator to keep the same ratio and all that.

Thanks, jvm.

Really shuts down the 'Wii owners don't buy games' crap a lot of people spill,

Nah. Tie ratios haven't stopped that before, so it wouldn't stop it now, either. *shrugs*

 

[jvm]

I think it's worth pointing out that the installed bases are getting large enough that tie ratios give much less precise information about software unit sales than you might think.

Let's take the Wii as an example. I have the installed base at around 34.2 million systems. The tie ratio, rounded to one decimal place, is 7.1. That means that, out to two decimal places, the tie ratio could be 7.05 or 7.14.

Therefore, the maximum for total Wii software unit sales is 244.188 million.

The minimum is 241.110 million units.

That means that there is a 3 million unit interval in which actual Wii software unit sales could lie. (This ignores, for the sake of simplicity, that the Wii hardware figure and Wii software figures are, themselves, estimates.)

As the tie ratios get larger and the installed bases also get larger, these intervals will grow. The same tie ratio with a Wii installed base of 45 million (to pick a number completely, totally, obviously at random) puts the total software sales in an interval of 4 million units.

I have more precise figures, but to continue my working relationship with the NPD Group, I try to balance things.

 

[Karma]

Really shuts down the 'Wii owners don't buy games' crap a lot of people spill, when at the end of the day the average owner of the PS3 basically only owns one more game, and the average 360 owner two more games, than the average Wii owner.

Would be nice if it stopped. Using the new tie ratio we can get the LTD software totals for the US.

Wii: 242,849,663
Xbox 360: 226,064,636
PS3: 119,021,240

 

[donny2112]

I think it's worth pointing out that the installed bases are getting large enough that tie ratios give much less precise information about software unit sales than you might think.

%-wise, the accuracy is all the same.

Spoiler

Math is ever on the mind.

Using the new tie ratio we can get the LTD software totals for the US.

Wii: 242,849,663
Xbox 360: 226,064,636
PS3: 119,021,240

And this would be where the concept of "significant digits" would come into play.

 

[Karma]

And this would be where the concept of "significant digits" would come into play.

At this rate the 360 has a shot of passing the Wii in software totals before the end of this gen.

 

[GarthVaderUK]

Great work as always, jvm!

 

[donny2112]

At this rate the 360 has a shot of passing the Wii in software totals before the end of this gen.

But ... the 360 already led this gen before Wii passed it up last year. And Wii outsold 360 this year, in Wii's worst full year since 2007 and 360's best full year ever. Could 360 take the lead back in a few years? Sure, but would that really be a significant "victory"?

 

[Karma]

But ... the 360 already led this gen before Wii passed it up last year. And Wii outsold 360 this year, in Wii's worst full year (hardware-wise) since 2007 and 360's best full year (hardware-wise) ever. Could 360 take the lead back in a few years? Sure, but would that really be a significant "victory"?

I am talking software only here. Going by the numbers given the 360 outsold the Wii in software this year.

Does winning by a few million mean anything? No I dont think it means much.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I like to think of it as the pie is being shared a bit more.

Fun times my internet buddies. Better than watching one pig gobble it all. Very gluttonous Sony.

 

[donny2112]

I am talking software only here.

As am I.

Going by the numbers given the 360 outsold the Wii in software this year.

You mean these numbers showing Wii with slightly more sales for the year?

Actually having read the article now ...

Nice work, jvm, and thanks for the extra total data points.

Few new games were launched in December, but some notable titles like Nintendo's Donkey Kong Country Returns and Disney's Epic Mickey, both for the Wii, and Activision Blizzard's World of Warcraft: Cataclysm for the PC, did well.

Moreover, Activision Blizzard's Call of Duty: Black Ops and Ubisoft's Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood and Just Dance 2 all continued to have strong sales in their second month.

This is DKC:R's second month.

So, for example, the Wii is simultaneously selling better than the PS2 did in its fourth calendar year on the market (7.1 million vs. 4.7 million) but also experiencing a sharp 26% decrease from the previous year that is at least suggestive of a much weaker year in 2011.

This comparison doesn't seem completely consistent. It's saying that 7.1 > 4.7 which is good, while 26% decline is bad. However, the 4.7 for PS2 was a 26% decline from the previous year, too. Not saying that the decline is good, but it is consistent with PS2's 4.7m 2004. Therefore, it seems weird to paint the absolute values as good when the % decline is the same and that's bad.

As mentioned before, though, PS2's 2004/2005 is skewed quite a bit due to the PS2 Slim transition at the end of 2004 leading to intense shortages of the console. That pushed a lot of sales that theoretically should have come in November/December 2004 to Q1 2005, which makes both years a little iffy for direct comparisons.

This is a key distinction between the PS2 and the Wii. The PS2 saw its annual software sales curve peak two years after its peak hardware sales, appearing to show that consumers continued to purchase software long after they obtained a system. By comparison, Wii software has roughly tracked with its hardware sales, and that suggests that new system owners are the primary engine of Wii software sales.

Yep. Lack of third-party support and lack of Player's Choice line are big knocks to Wii's long-term software sales. The evergreens weren't evergreen mainly because people kept buying them. They were evergreens because the hardware sales were high and those are the "staple" games for the system. Wish Nintendo had clued into this a long time ago. Same thing in Japan with the DS. Animal Crossing, Brain Training 1/2, Mario Kart and NSMB didn't keep selling huge amounts every week of the year because old buyers were buying them. They were selling huge amounts because they were the "staple" games for new buyers and DS had huge weekly hardware sales due to continuous sell-outs for 18 months.

Remember that Donkey Kong Country Returns wasn't announced until June 2010 and sold over 1.3 million units at launch six months later.

Again, it's DK's second month at retail.

its sales have declined and dropped in value as consumers who already own Wii Balance Boards opt to upgrade to the software-only version of Wii Fit Plus.

This contradicts Nintendo's own statements that the major "software-only" rush for Wii Fit Plus came at its launch, and that the balance has shifted more to balance board purchases instead.

Through Dec-09, 10.16m Wii Fit Plus with 5.6m of those (~55%) with Balance Boards.
Through Mar-10, an additional 2.49m Wii Fit Plus sold with ~75% of those sold with the Balance Board.

This again plays into the "staple games to purchase with the console" Wii problem, but it shouldn't be mainly software-only purchases for Wii Fit Plus.

However, there are also some parts of the NPD Group's data that make us skeptical. Specifically, if the total extra-retail market was worth $2.6-2.9 billion during the first half and only $5.3-5.5 billion for the full year, then these other areas of consumer spending don't appear to be nearly as affected by seasonality as the new physical game market is.

Thanks for doing some real analysis on the figures instead of just posting them and calling it a day.

 

[Karma]

You mean these numbers showing Wii with slightly more sales for the year?

Well there ya go. I was completely wrong. I was just multiplying the tie ratio by hardware sold for the year. Sorry. So I guess my LTD are wrong as well.

 

[donny2112]

Sorry.

No problem. Went back and skimmed the thread to see if something different was said, just in case. :lol

So I guess my LTD are wrong as well.

Those look fine. LTD HW Sales * LTD Tie Ratio = LTD SW Sales.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

Gotta agree with the monkey here. I don't think we'll be getting new consoles anytime soon, except for a Wii upgrade. Microsoft and Sony have already said that they expect this console cycle to last much longer. Microsoft essentially just had what they've termed a "console launch" with Kinect.

New consoles aren't in the cards, especially the way the economy has gone the last couple years, and the fact that we haven't even hit the sweet spot in the current generation's pricing. Wait until the PS3 is down to $199. Then we'll talk.

Don't trust PR speak especially when comes to a company's supposed long term plans. MS and Sony are perhaps hoping they can extend the generation so they can milk it for all that it's worth but it all comes down to what the competition does. Nobody wants to be left behind when next gen starts. Besides, saying Kinect is a relaunch is MS's way of giving their consumer base confidence to support Kinect. What else are they going to say?

Spoiler

"Here's a prototype of our next gen console that's coming out soon so don't bother buying the beta product"

Even if their intentions are geniune, things can change depending on how the market reacts. DS = third pillar, anybody?

 

[Dreams-Visions]

enjoyable thread.

pretty pictures.

lots of colors.

 

[Karma]

Those look fine. LTD HW Sales * LTD Tie Ratio = LTD SW Sales.

Ok, good. Thanks.

 

[FrankT]

I think top 10s are basically dead at this point. I do have top 5 for each platform but the handhelds. I'm biding my time and hoping I can get the handhelds in a week or so.

Also, I think people asked about new tie ratios. You can estimate them from the graphs I provided, I believe, but the new values are:

Xbox 360: 8.9
PS3: 7.7
Wii. 7.1

Hope that helps.

Thanks for this, but do you know where 360 SW sales were at for the year. Kind of hard to tell on that graph, 62 million give or take? Wasn't the attach ratio of the Wii 6.8 last time we had it? I'm surprised that went up with overall SW sales down for the year. I'm also surprised it edged out 360 in SW unit sales too as coming into the month I'm fairly sure there was a decent gap on both the cash level and unit level. Though I know this same kind of effect happend last year I was thinking it may have been too big to make up otherwise.

This graph btw.

The graph is interesting too as it shows a decline for PS2 after 4th year. No such decline looks evident for 360 and PS3 at this point and gives weight at this point to a longer console cycle imo.

I still remember a certain poster saying "Oh, it's bad news for a system to drop its tie ratio this late in the game." about the Wii a year or two back. The statement was wrong then, and the fact that 360's tie ratio dropped since Sept./Oct. isn't a bad sign, either. It's just showing that there was a big increase in hardware for the system. Denominator increasing at a faster rate than the numerator to keep the same ratio and all that.

Thanks, jvm.



Nah. Tie ratios haven't stopped that before, so it wouldn't stop it now, either. *shrugs*

Did 360 ever actually hit 9? There was some debate on that number the last time I saw. Anyhow, the last time we had tie ratios does anyone have all three? Would like to compare because I could have sworn Wii was in the 6.8 range and going up on a down SW year makes no sense while the base continues to expand.

 

[Raist]

Wow, that is beautiful.

All the way, so bright and vivid.

Need 200-2004 numbers for PS2

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Nintendo kept the relative majority of the dollar market share with two declining systems and a relative low amount of blockbuster games.

I can only imagine the crazy improvement that 3DS will bring this year.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Sorry. Is this too much on one graph?

DS has been SO huge. It will be very hard to top its LTD. Even for 3DS.

 

[orion434]

I love these articles because I love graphs

 

[Celine]

DS has been SO huge. It will be very hard to top its LTD. Even for 3DS.

So huge, except 2005. Annus horribilis.

 

[BishopLamont]

The DS wasn't doing very well in its early life, if Nintendo can capture the people's imagination again from the get-go, the 3DS can outsell it with a strong start and if third party are on board, it means an even longer life.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Really shuts down the 'Wii owners don't buy games' crap a lot of people spill, when at the end of the day the average owner of the PS3 basically only owns one more game, and the average 360 owner two more games, than the average Wii owner.

I think it shows how 'casual' the audience is across all platforms, really.

Are we able to work out the 'x console owner buys a game every x weeks' thing that JoshuaJSlone (I think) used to do?

Let's see. For perspective on change, looks like I hadn't updated that spreadsheet since June. At the time the data stood as

[b]After June 2010[/b]
Total weeks ownership
Wii:  2.58 billion
X360: 2.31 billion
PS3:  1.07 billion

Average weeks ownership (average purchase date)
X360: 112.4 (May 8, 2008)
Wii: 87.3 (October 30, 2008)
PS3: 84.4 (November 20, 2008)

Adding in the next six months, we get

[b]After December 2010[/b]
Total weeks ownership
Wii:  3.39 billion
X360: 2.89 billion
PS3:  1.43 billion

Average weeks ownership (average purchase date)
X360: 113.7 (October 28, 2008)
Wii: 99.0   (February 8, 2009)
PS3: 92.4   (March 26, 2009)

Now that the Wii isn't so "recent-loaded", and X360/PS3 are increasing more each month relative to their previous LTDs, Wii isn't the one with the youngest set of owners, which went some way to explaining away tie ratio differences. Give the X360 8.9, PS3 7.7, and Wii 7.1 numbers provided by jvm, it works out like this if each system purchaser was buying games at a constant rate:

PS3: 0.083 games/week or 12.0 weeks/game
X360: 0.078 games/week or 12.8 weeks/game
Wii: 0.072 games/week or 13.9 weeks/game

I don't see tie numbers for June, but I do for May (9.0 X360, 7.2 PS3, 6.8 Wii) so here's how things stood as of 7 months ago

PS3: 0.088 games/week or 11.3 weeks/game
X360: 0.082 games/week or 12.2 weeks/game
Wii: 0.081 games/week or 12.3 weeks/game

 

[jmdajr]

cool graphs dudes

 

[Souldriver]

Did 360 ever actually hit 9? There was some debate on that number the last time I saw. Anyhow, the last time we had tie ratios does anyone have all three? Would like to compare because I could have sworn Wii was in the 6.8 range and going up on a down SW year makes no sense while the base continues to expand.

When yearly hardware sales go down (in %) more than software does, the software/hardware ratio can go up. Right? Or am I making a stupid mistake here?

 

[sfog]

So huge, except 2005. Annus horribilis.

It's not really that surprising, as the DS had a pretty poor first year software-wise, especially compared to the GBA, which was still pretty well-supported then. The real DS killer apps didn't start coming until late 05/early 06, followed by the Lite in June.

I suspect the 3DS will do pretty well from the get-go, although I doubt it'll match the high points of the DS, particularly if it's $250 or higher at launch, as opposed to the $130 Lite.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

When yearly hardware sales go down (in %) more than software does, the software/hardware ratio can go up. Right? Or am I making a stupid mistake here?

Right. Comparing things as they stood end of 2009 to end of 2010 in totals rather than just looking at the yearly values specifically

Wii hardware + 26%
Wii software + 36%
Software outpaced hardware, tie ratio increased

PS3 hardware +39%
PS3 software +62%
Software outpaced hardware even more, tie ratio increased even more

X360 hardware +36%
X360 software +38%
Software barely outpaced hardware, tie ratio barely increased

 

[donny2112]

Did 360 ever actually hit 9?

360 was at 164.7m in Dec-2009. Pixel-counting from this graph had YTD software in September at 31-32m for 360. That'd put the tie ratio in September at or just over 8.95. The 8.9/9 debate was in May-2010.

Would like to compare because I could have sworn Wii was in the 6.8 range and going up on a down SW year makes no sense while the base continues to expand.

Wii sold ~25m in software Dec-2009. It probably sold 20m+ this year. PS2's the only other system with those kinds of December numbers. That kind of a month can "cure" a whole year of downs. :lol

Edit:
Using the same method as the 360 above, the Wii's tie ratio in September was ~6.9.

Edit2:
And most of the "down SW" year was based on revenue and not units, anyways. The decline in monthly sales of Wii Fit/Plus (i.e. very high ASP) and bundling of a $50 Wii Sports Resort were big drivers for making the revenue drop more pronounced than the likely unit drop.

 

[Kenka]

Nintendo kept the relative majority of the dollar market share with two declining systems and a relative low amount of blockbuster games.

I can only imagine the crazy improvement that 3DS will bring this year.

God knows how much poetntial there is in a Nintendo platform with the majority of third-parties on board but I have to say I am rather pessimistic.

All these recent 3DS "features" turned me a bit off to be honest.

 

[PistolGrip]

360 had a monster year no doubt but I think this year will be lackluster unless MS has a price drop.

It will be very hard to match 2010 for MS this year as they release their first redesign, amazing way of marketing arcade (4GB), Kinect and overpowering marketing push. Though I think the momentum they build is going to be hard to beat and I wouldnt be surprise if the Wii goes to second/third place on a monthly basis for the rest of the year.

As for the PS3, In terms of software it is unbeatable this year but its almost a given that SONY will do a price drop towards the fourth quarter. I see the PS3 as the only home console that will be up on the year.

 

[FrankT]

360 was at 164.7m in Dec-2009. Pixel-counting from this graph had YTD software in September at 31-32m for 360. That'd put the tie ratio in September at or just over 8.95. The 8.9/9 debate was in May-2010.



Wii sold ~25m in software Dec-2009. It probably sold 20m+ this year. PS2's the only other system with those kinds of December numbers. That kind of a month can "cure" a whole year of downs. :lol

Edit:
Using the same method as the 360 above, the Wii's tie ratio in September was ~6.9.

Edit2:
And most of the "down SW" year was based on revenue and not units, anyways. The decline in monthly sales of Wii Fit/Plus (i.e. very high ASP) and bundling of a $50 Wii Sports Resort were big drivers for making the revenue drop more pronounced than the likely unit drop.

Yea that was based off this from the original article;

While the Wii did decline (from over 70 million to 65 million units),

Looking at last years NPD Dec article(behind the numbers) it said 72M iirc. So that's around 7 million units down YoY. I would still like to have the 360 end year number JVM if you have it.

I would also like to see just the console chart for SW dollars and the amounts if you have them. Just like the chart from October.

And thanks Sloan for clearing that up on the ratio.

360 had a monster year no doubt but I think this year will be lackluster unless MS has a price drop.

Depending on when they get these stock issues cleared(they say 30-60 days) the front end of the year should be fine. From now until the Fall does look pathetic from a first party stand point however, which means it could get tough mid year.

If they do a price drop in fall to $149 it will be a big year, but maybe not as big as last. SW looks more than fine for fall at this point as they already have Gears and Forza in the holiday window and they always have at least two first party titles in that time. I imagine they may have 1 more core title and a bunch of Kinect titles during that time as well.

 

[donny2112]

Yea that was based off this from the original article;

I'm talking about the discussions through the year about Wii SW being "down." The severity of the "down" was most often in terms of revenue, which is going to make it appear worse than in terms of units for the reasons posted above. That would lead you to think that the "down" in units (and thus, tie ratio) was worse than it actually was due to most of the %s thrown out not relating to units, at all. If your concept of the Wii software market was based on seeing these larger revenue drops, then it would make the idea of an increasing tie ratio seem off.

That's what I was getting at.

Edit:
I think we had similar discussions back in August/September, when the revenue was way in 360's favor, but by units, Wii was really close. It's easy to start mistakenly equating revenue across systems with unit sales, since we get revenue a whole lot more than we get unit sales.

 

[Road]

I would still like to have the 360 end year number JVM if you have it.

I have the 360 as selling 51 million in 2009; the article says it was up 17% in units last year.

So I'm guessing somewhere around 60 million for 2010.

But, yeah, if there are more precise numbers, I'd like to see them too. =P

Edit: That leaves us with 44 million for the PS3 in 2010, or a 33% increase over 2009 by my data, or pretty much the increase Sony talked about in their press release -- 32%.

 

[squatingyeti]

360 had a monster year no doubt but I think this year will be lackluster unless MS has a price drop.

It will be very hard to match 2010 for MS this year as they release their first redesign, amazing way of marketing arcade (4GB), Kinect and overpowering marketing push. Though I think the momentum they build is going to be hard to beat and I wouldnt be surprise if the Wii goes to second/third place on a monthly basis for the rest of the year.

As for the PS3, In terms of software it is unbeatable this year but its almost a given that SONY will do a price drop towards the fourth quarter. I see the PS3 as the only home console that will be up on the year.

I guess the big unknown will be if MS can capture some of that Wii market due to word of mouth. If they are able to do that throughout the year, we could actually see console sales continue to grow despite the year's lineup and maybe without an ok sized pricecut to do the heavy lifting.

I think it will be interesting to see if they are able to pull those casual users looking for a new experience over.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

But, yeah, if there are more precise numbers, I'd like to see them too. =P

Given the rounding involved in many steps I don't know if this is more precise, but doing the (December 2010 tie ratio * December 2010 hardware LTD) - (December 2009 tie ratio * December 2009 hardware LTD) thing, I get

Wii: 64.8 million
X360: 61.7 million
PS3: 45.4 million

 

[FrankT]

I'm talking about the discussions through the year about Wii SW being "down." The severity of the "down" was most often in terms of revenue, which is going to make it appear worse than in terms of units for the reasons posted above. That would lead you to think that the "down" in units (and thus, tie ratio) was worse than it actually was due to most of the %s thrown out not relating to units, at all. If your concept of the Wii software market was based on seeing these larger revenue drops, then it would make the idea of an increasing tie ratio seem off.

That's what I was getting at.

Edit:
I think we had similar discussions back in August/September, when the revenue was way in 360's favor, but by units, Wii was really close. It's easy to start mistakenly equating revenue across systems with unit sales, since we get revenue a whole lot more than we get unit sales.

Actually I was just using the basis of what we knew before this coming in to the equation;

October;

Using an ASP of $40 for Wii and $45 for 360 that is about a 7.5M unit difference for 360 at that point.


Now November;

Now I would expect another boost in 360 favor with that kind of gap in revenue. Basically what was that gap before December is really what I would like to know to see how much it flipped because if those numbers by Sloan are right maybe 11-13M+ in Wii favor for Dec. Does that seem right? Obviosully I don't know current ASPs so that is a guessing game and we rarely get them so who knows.

It would be nice to have that first chart broken down for year end difference as well as compare the first chart of the second set there I posted for year end as well.

Given the rounding involved in many steps I don't know if this is more precise, but doing the (December 2010 tie ratio * December 2010 hardware LTD) - (December 2009 tie ratio * December 2009 hardware LTD) thing, I get

Wii: 64.8 million
X360: 61.7 million
PS3: 45.4 million

3.1M between 360 and Wii year end. If it was 8M coming in on the 360 side that would put it at +11M in Dec for Wii. A bit surprising really.

Edit: Totally messed up on that. Should have used at least $50 for 360 so that would have been a 3.5M unit difference coming into Nov. So if I used 4M unit differnce coming into Dec then perhpas +7.1M in Wii favor for the month. Sounds better.

 

[jvm]

Just updating that I think I fixed the DKCR issues. I replaced it with the LTD sales, which are verified by the NPD Group as 1.8 million. I hope that fixes the most egregious mistake that donny2112 caught.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

I'm biding my time and hoping I can get the handhelds in a week or so.

I have more precise figures, but to continue my working relationship with the NPD Group, I try to balance things.

This seems so odd to me, it's almost as if NPD just releases everything to the analysts and say, you can pick and choose but don't release too much info.

Do you just have to kinda pick and go on what is okay to release and what's not?

 

[jvm]

This seems so odd to me, it's almost as if NPD just releases everything to the analysts and say, you can pick and choose but don't release too much info.

I get far from everything, to be clear. Michael Pachter and other analysts get the full NPD report (on software and hardware).

 

[jvm]

As I intimated, I was able to request some additional information about 2010 sales charts.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...eals_2010_US_New_Game_Charts_Per_Platform.php

One chart to pique your interest, perhaps:

Edit: I see there was a thread on it.