• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Sales-Age December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
We might be at the point where these machines being available for $249 for an extended period in time is bringing in the more casual buyer.

I think it also has to do with November having no games that would push units. CoD was the only major release and even that failed to generate enthusiasm for buying a console before Black Friday.

Maybe that is why December has recently been only slightly bigger than November. Massive AAA games that release before Black Friday that make one want the console now. We did not have that this year. Instead it was a barebones, uninteresting, November and standard affair console deals in December.

This November could prove that if it is filled with the usual big games like 2015 and earlier and we see either the now "typical" December slightly above November, or this year's performance.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Does a Vita TV* count? Or a PSP with a TV-out cable*?



* sold separately
You could also plug the gameboy to a gamecube, and laptops can be connected to an external monitor.
So it's a prehistorical concept.
My bad. Switch is boring.
 
Jun 18, 2014
1,841
0
0
Seoul, South Korea
We might be at the point where these machines being available for $249 for an extended period in time is bringing in the more casual buyer.

I think it also has to do with November having no games that would push units. CoD was the only major release and even that failed to generate enthusiasm for buying a console before Black Friday.

Maybe that is why December has recently been only slightly bigger than November. Massive AAA games that release before Black Friday that make one want the console now. We did not have that this year. Instead it was a barebones, uninteresting, November and standard affair console deals in December.

This November could prove that if it is filled with the usual big games like 2015 and earlier and we see either the now "typical" December slightly above November, or this year's performance.
You may have to help me, but was the weekend after and cyber monday a part of November NPDs in the past? I haven't lived in the US for a very long time, but my brother and his family seem to do a lot more of their shopping after black friday, since many of the stores end up extendeding deals (especially online) and they feel less rushed. It could be that those five hardcore days got cut in half for this year, and that skewered November versus December more? Again, I am not sure, just trying to offer other possible factors.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
You may have to help me, but was the weekend after and cyber monday a part of November NPDs in the past? I haven't lived in the US for a very long time, but my brother and his family seem to do a lot more of their shopping after black friday, since many of the stores end up extendeding deals (especially online) and they feel less rushed. It could be that those five hardcore days got cut in half for this year, and that skewered November versus December more? Again, I am not sure, just trying to offer other possible factors.
Cyber Monday is always December NPD
Thanksgiving Thursday - Saturday is November NPD
 
Mar 16, 2016
4,609
0
0
As a gaming system, with detachable controllers, that means that any parent considering this for their children would mean that if they're allowing them to transport it, they have to now regulate that it has these controllers attached. If they get lost or left behind, many games are now unusable without owning a Pro controller, and the handheld mode is certainly going to face difficulties. The accessories aren't cheap, either, as mentioned, and those costs are certainly going to raise eyebrows (Already have, in discussions with a few customers).
I feel like this situation definitely crossed some people's minds at Nintendo. It's a wonderful opportunity to make money on game accessories which are the highest profit margin item in the game industry.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Making a dock isn't some revolution.
Yeah, my electrical toothbrush has one, too.*
I already stated that I am wrong. Forgive me this spontanious outburst of positive emotion (plastic won't love me back anyway), especially after this gen's hardware reveal where there was a huge outcry that ps4 and XboxOne just were more-of-the-same consoles.

* talking of innovation: try sonic toothbrushes. They are amazing.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
710
0
0
Helsinki, Finland
Thanks for checking it out. And I agree with your point. That's why I wrote that "Nintendo is poised to re-establish itself as *a* market leader" not that the Switch would be the best-selling console.
I'd like to criticize the use of the term "market leader", because it is a bit ambiguous. Are you talking about unit sales, revenue, MAUs, consumer awareness or a combination of some of these?

As far as NES Classic goes, you can't sell additional games on it, am I correct? So it's more of a one-off deal, and there's no recurring revenue regardless of how many units it has sold. Although I guess Nintendo has quite a healthy margin on that device...

Also, Mat, the claim that Switch will alter the console landscape is quite a bold one. I am struggling to understand who Nintendo intends to target with Switch, and whether its unique value proposition is compelling enough. What kind of market potential do you see it having?
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Right now, Nintendo consoles are not relevant to basically any non-Japanese publishers. Maybe Switch making Nintendo a "market participant" again might be a better term. 😜
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
Thanks for the post! Sorry, been a bit busy today. Data monkeys gotta data monkey sometimes.

Youre right, the use of the term "market leader in the console space" isn't specific. However, I think it still apt. Right now, the console space is a two horse race. The two leading consoles combine for higher market share now than at any time in recent memory. Should the Nintendo Switch meet some level of mass market acceptance, Nintendo's position goes from basically 1st party exclusive/niche console to a much more meaningful one.

This relates to the Switch altering the console landscape. Should the Switch achieve double digit share, does that not alter how consoles are sold and marketed? I did not intend to imply that some seismic shift is happening, where the Switch takes dominant share or market position this year. Just that it has the potential of reestablishing Nintendo consoles after the Wii U.

NPD does not do go forward predictions. So don't read it as that. However, my own personal expectation for the US for the Switch is neighborhood 700kish month 1, 2.8mish year 1. Range of error on that year 1 number of 500k or so. Again, my own expectation, not that of NPD or any other source. Will be wrong, many will disagree. Forecasting this at this point is more art than science, and the only thing anyone knows about a forecast in the video game space is that it's wrong.

Right now, Nintendo consoles are not relevant to basically any non-Japanese publishers. Maybe Switch making Nintendo a "market participant" again might be a better term. ��
When the seats at the table go from 2 to 3 doesn't that imply leadership? Well, perhaps not if your Churchill at Yalta, but you get my point.
 

Abdiel

Member
Nov 2, 2013
1,534
0
0
Thanks for your posts as always. Could you give maybe a hint how "1,2,Switch" is doing? It it failing completely or are there at least some questions/preorders for it? This could be a first hint if it is attracting the "Wii"-crowd at all, since it is practically the only game known that is going fully in this direction.

Though this will probably be more interesting at or only some days before launch, since this typically isn't the audience that preorders products already a few days after the reveal.
We got plenty of preorders for Zelda, obviously. 1, 2 Switch seems to be treated like a Leper. I have a single preorder for the game in my district, and the person who did it seemed very resigned to be putting in the order for it. I imagine that the game will see more impulse purchases later, but I also don't expect it to sell very well. It's had zero enthusiasm from customers talking about the launch options.

Abdiel, you're the best.

Skimming the thread I don't see any big questions out there, but let me know if there are any as we wind down toward's this weeks' release.

Also, I wrote a thing with my 2017 Video Game Industry Predictions on the The NPD Group blog if you're interested.
Interesting commentary Mat. And thanks, glad you enjoyed my own insights.

I think the system has the potential to do well, and carve out a better chance for itself than the Wii U, but that's entirely dependent on Nintendo. I just... don't know what they're doing. We'll have to see how gracefully they can handle the execution of this, because if they can pull off a smooth launch, and effective first year, then they can lay a solid foundation. But that's all on them. Lord knows that all of the publishers are watching and going "Prove It", at this point to determine if they're going to bother.

Reading through the Windows Central thread about the posted numbers though is a shit show. People trying to crow about poor Pro numbers... seriously.

It's not the season for it, and no one was looking for it. Sigh. Oh well.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
by the way

Since the release of Xbox One S, Xbox sales were up YoY every month except for November. That month is now proven to be the outliner

And the MoM growth of 50% was unusual and very high.
Maybe the console was really supply constrained to some degree.
But as Ps4 also saw a 42.5% MoM increase, that is definitely not the only factor.
At least all the anecdotal reports of sold out and hard to get Xbox One consoles + the Amazon.com backorders make sense now.

Will be interesting how the Xbox One S continues to perform the next months in 2017
and even more so the next holiday season.

PS4 Slim, Xbox One S and Ps4 Pro use all the same TSMC 16nn FF process. So it makes sense the overall waver capacity is not infinite at launch and the first high demand and volume sold trough months.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
That Windows Central figures thread is awful. Wow. I am so glad all that petty console warrior crap has mostly been contained to those monthly winner threads as it allowance is to have actual sales analysis without constant derails and trolling. I suppose that's one benefit of the new NPD release format.
 

Unknown?

Member
Jan 5, 2016
3,830
934
435
On Amazon, yea. Seems like they sold through all their available stock during the Cyber Monday discount on Pro.
It's finally back in stock, rising up the charts again now that they have more shipments. Probably will pass the Battlefield bundle soon.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
It's finally back in stock, rising up the charts again now that they have more shipments. Probably will pass the Battlefield bundle soon.
Xbox One S has also been out of stock for awhile (only being sold by 3rd party sellers), so it probably will for a bit until XB1S gets a resupply.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Amazon.com Switch games pre-order state, as of 18:16 BST, January 17th, 2017

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1st
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 7th
Super Mario Odyssey - 9th
Super Bomberman R - 12th (pre-orders started several hours ago)
1-2 Switch - 16th
Splatoon 2 - 19th
Arms - 47th
Xenoblade 2 - 68th
Puyo Puyo Tetris - 90th (413th on PS4)
Fire Emblem Warriors - 91st
Amazon.com Switch games pre-order state, as of 11:36 BST, January 19th, 2017

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1st
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 7th
The Binding of Isaac: Afterbirth+ - 12th (just announced as a launch game)
Super Mario Odyssey - 17th
Super Bomberman R - 24th (still at $59.99; once the price is changed, it could bounce back a bit)
1-2 Switch - 25th
Splatoon 2 - 36th
Fire Emblem Warriors - 42nd (just mentioned in the FE Direct; the New 3DS version is 113th)
Arms - 92nd
 
Jun 26, 2013
5,538
6,500
800
It is around 300k in November, no?

BTW November leak was rounded to 100k... December was rounded to 1k. That makes a lot of difference... we need more accurate November number :D
I'm surprised that the Pro managed to achieve that kind of consistency in November and December. The Pro didn't have the benefit of 2 months of preorders and yet, it still pulled off 238K in December.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
It is around 300k in November, no?

BTW November leak was rounded to 100k... December was rounded to 1k. That makes a lot of difference... we need more accurate November number :D
I have no idea. Like I said there were no leaks or numbers of any sort AFAIK.

Thanks for that.

So 238k in US alone doesn't seem too bad at all IMO.
No not at all. Actually substantially higher than most were predicting for the month. I had personally predicted ~150k.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
I'll be around later today if anyone has questions on the release and the new/enhanced content.

That other thread. That's certainly something.

Interesting commentary Mat. And thanks, glad you enjoyed my own insights.
I do, and have for years. There's an opening in the market for someone to look at, analyze and comment on retail from someone with your background, perspective and insight. Trust me, no one's looking at retail quite like you do in your posts within the industry.

Yep it's always like that.
But why do people do that to themselves. What joy is there in those discussions. The mind reels.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
[3DS] 600k +/- 100k
[PS4] 1100k +/- 150k
[WIU] 100k +/- 50k
[XB1] 1200k +/- 150k

In general whoever takes November also takes December npd. This was true 2014 with xbox one, 2015 with ps4 and also the majority of last gen.
However this year, ps4 had a major new hardware release in november and this December ps4 family won't have 2 months of ps4 pro preorders and launch sales, so xbox one could edge it out.



Top 10 best selling games of 2016 (revenue based in no particular order)

Shooter:
#1 call of duty: Infinity warfare
#2 battlefield 1 (without origin sales, otherwise it should be > cod this year)
#3 the division
#4 overwatch (no battle.net sales)
#5 call of duty: Black ops III

Sport games:
#1 nba2k17
#2 madden 17
#3 fifa 17 (no origin sales)
#4 nba2k16

Open world / action games:
#1 grand theft auto V (no rockstar social club sales)

Rpgs:
#1 Pokémon: Sun (no digital sales)
#2 Pokémon: Moon (no digital sales)

Won't make the list for the first time in 4 years thanks to the new format:
#1 Minecraft (no digital sales)


this month my hardware predictions were totally off
at least i got 9 out of 10 games for 2016 correct
really did not expect FF to make the full year top 10 with just one month on sale
 

Abdiel

Member
Nov 2, 2013
1,534
0
0
I'll be around later today if anyone has questions on the release and the new/enhanced content.

That other thread. That's certainly something.



I do, and have for years. There's an opening in the market for someone to look at, analyze and comment on retail from someone with your background, perspective and insight. Trust me, no one's looking at retail quite like you do in your posts within the industry.



But why do people do that to themselves. What joy is there in those discussions. The mind reels.
Paperwork and such at work today, so I haven't been browsing as much, and now I come on and see a bunch of threads have cropped up! I'm really happy to see how XV did. It did really well in my stores, but I try not to feel too biased, since I'm a big JRPG fan and I dont' want to extrapolate that too much.

As to your comment on my posts Mat, I genuinely appreciate the confidence in that. I think that being grounded where I am for now helps keep a lot of that insight level with the perception I get, but I've had years of boots on the ground experience to help round out the rationale I train my team on, haha. Something to think about though.

But as to the new data -

Do you see any trends in the monthly game differences that seems unusual to you between the platforms, or does it seem well in hand for what we've seen? I admit to being a bit surprised at how high XV is in the monthly best sellers for the XB1 platform, though I don't know how high any of those numbers are, and it being the only new game could just be what differentiates it.

And I don't imagine we'll be able to get an actual split from any official sources on what XV did between the two platforms, either.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
not much to talk about
Maybe some sku splits?!

Nov + Dec
Ps4 Total 2,668k
Ps4 Pro 480k (18%)

November
Ps4 Total: 1,100k
Ps4 Pro: 243k (22%)

December
Ps4 Total: 1,568k
Ps4 Slim: 1,200k (76.5%)
Ps4 Pro: 238k (15%)
Ps4: 130k (8.5%)

Xb1 Total : 1,511k
Xb1 S: >1,209k (>80%)
Xb1: <302k (<20%)
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
I like how an NPD analyst is here but everyone just posts blatantly leaked data as if it's nothing.
Up to us to plug the leaks. But one would think people with access (those that leak) would be more professional, especially in the games industry, given its propensity to be unhappy with piracy or used sales (even as used puts just as much if not more spend back into new games than it takes away). But once stuff is out there, it is what it is. I won't comment on those numbers, but I'm also not going to pretend they're not out there. And I don't want to go into hiding and not talk to people about the market in order to avoid that stuff. Know what I mean?

Do you see any trends in the monthly game differences that seems unusual to you between the platforms, or does it seem well in hand for what we've seen?
Not really. FFXV was a pleasant surprise overall. But the story for this gen, the broad stroke story at least, is already written. At this stage in the cycle, I'm just looking for the more interesting minutiae in things like decay rates, average pricing, that kind of thing. Only the stuff the hardcore data dorks like getting into.
 

hanspampel

Banned
Oct 5, 2016
3,516
0
0
I like how an NPD analyst is here but everyone just posts blatantly leaked data as if it's nothing.
well the numbers are out and publicly available
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-01-19-call-of-duty-infinite-warfare-battlefield-1-lead-2016-us-game-sales-npd
http://www.windowscentral.com/xbox-playstation-neck-and-neck-npd-dec-2016

do some math with the leaked numbers and you can get interesting and deep insights.
so why not blatantly post them here and talk about them? isn't that what has been done here since forever?

Up to us to plug the leaks. But one would think people with access would be more professional, especially in the games industry, given its propensity to be unhappy with piracy or used sales (even as used puts just as much if not more spend back into new games than it takes away).
a general question and i'm not sure if you can or willing to answer, but is the confidentiality behind NPD numbers more driven by NPD itself or the games publisher?
GFK and its subsidiaries tends to give out more information.

Of course this is the business model of the NPD Group and you need to sell your data and make money to gather and process the data. But i'm willing to bet your customer would subscribe nevertheless.
So any chance on possible future policy changes in that regard? If there would be more open data, the desire for leaked data would possibly be lower!?
Afaik here were never actual hard number leaks for the PAL regions via GFK Data. And customer also subscribe to their reports.

I find that kind of interesting.
Maybe those markets are not that much of interest here or the public. I don't know.