RexNovis may disapprove, but the hypothesis you put forward is pretty much why I also predict ps4 is going to take December.
If I'm not mistaken, Sony extended their deal by a week in the US as well. I even saw the $249 price tag on Amazon this morning.Don't really have number predictions but I do have some thoughts as to why I think PS4 will edge out XB1, albeit slightly, for December:
PS4 was also to the 24th, but up to the 29th in Canada ($329)
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016...undle-249-99-december-11-through-december-24/
I think there was some Boxing Day only sales for the Xbox One here in Canada, but I don't recall having an extended sales length like the PS4 did.
I had the impression the hardware is up yoy in UK.
Where it says it is down???
Don't really have number predictions but I do have some thoughts as to why I think PS4 will edge out XB1, albeit slightly, for December:
1) Adobe said PS4 won Cyber Monday
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...st-selling-console-us-month-online-retailers/
Cyber Monday is included in December NPD (Nov 28th)
2) FFXV came out - stronger ties to Playstation brand, people likely to pick this game up who don't have a console already potentially got a Playstation over a Xbox for it. Not to mention Gamestop had a limited edition PS4 Slim FFXV bundle:
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016...-fantasy-xv-ps4-bundle-launching-november-29/
No idea how well that did, but it's there.
3) PS4 and Xbox One both had a similar sale of $249 in December. However, Xbox One only went up to the 24th:
https://blogs.microsoft.com/firehos...4-in-the-us/#sm.00001b0jxypif4dqesodwedynb7ck
PS4 was also to the 24th, but up to the 29th in Canada ($329)
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2016...undle-249-99-december-11-through-december-24/
I think there was some Boxing Day only sales for the Xbox One here in Canada, but I don't recall having an extended sales length like the PS4 did.
XB1 was outselling PS4 before the holidays. Right now the momentum has proven XB1 is the more popular product, PS4 barely won because of Pro launch. If Xbox wins December then it should lead at the beginning of 2017. If PS4 wins then it is more up in the air.Hmm, assuming MS does take December, I wonder if it will be like 2014 going into 2015 with the PS4 taking the following January. Basically, the X1 momentum was on account of the holiday period rather than momentum built up that continues into the next year.
The X1S has been doing well though. So, it has the potential to keep it going this month too.
Edit - Oh, aren't we getting leaked numbers this month?
That could be where I read before... I didn't know it was from May.No indication of it being up or down at the end of the year. It was slightly up back in May but that was just +6.7%.
2015: 194,852
2016: 207,907
That could be where I read before... I didn't know it was from May.
It was up a bit in November too... it is probably flat or up yoy in UK... it is hard to believe it is down when in November it was up and until May it was up.
I know, I was just making the association with another year. It isn't out of the question since X1 should have carried the momentum from November and December of 2014 into January 2015 but it didn't.XB1 was outselling PS4 before the holidays. Right now the momentum has proven XB1 is the more popular product, PS4 barely won because of Pro launch. If Xbox wins December then it should lead at the beginning of 2017. If PS4 wins then it is more up in the air.
Help me sales GAF, you're my only hope...
How many more Xboxs would MS have to sell over PS4s this month in order to take the whole of 2016? Is it possible? I guess what I'm asking is, what's the US gap for 2016?
I believe Microsoft would have to sell a little over 1.5 million *more* Xbox One's over PS4 to take US.
I believe Microsoft would have to sell a little over 1.5 million *more* Xbox One's over PS4 to take US.
He was asking for 2016, not LTD.
Yeah I thought that sounded high :/ I just meant 2016.
No indication of it being up or down at the end of the year. It was slightly up back in May but that was just +6.7%.
2015: 194,852
2016: 207,907
X1S has been outselling the standard/slim PS4 since its launch. The PS4 pro launching should have been a huge momentum booster but it has only kept up the existing pace (in NA). I'd be willing to put money on more Xbox users jumping ship to scorpio than PS4 users to pro.Weak Slim and Pro sales? Care to explain this?
I looked through the numbers and the 2016 gap is about 300K as of November, so the XBO has to outsell the PS4 by over 300K to win the year.
Yeah I thought that sounded high :/ I just meant 2016.
No numbers given, but before the ps4 slim release, ps4 was down for the year. That was said by mcvuk
Q1 ps4 was up in the us as well
XB1 was outselling PS4 before the holidays. Right now the momentum has proven XB1 is the more popular product, PS4 barely won because of Pro launch. If Xbox wins December then it should lead at the beginning of 2017. If PS4 wins then it is more up in the air.
X1S has been outselling the standard/slim PS4 since its launch. The PS4 pro launching should have been a huge momentum booster but it has only kept up the existing pace (in NA). I'd be willing to put money on more Xbox users jumping ship to scorpio than PS4 users to pro.
Agreed. Also I don't really see a scenario where PS4 sold more this December. Even with the Pro it barely sold more. I think what's happening now is that the old 360 fanbase that was heretofore unwilling to buy in, are now getting in at the 249-299 price.
If you don't have a definite source for your info then don't state it as if its fact. Especially if your only info is Amazon hourly charts. there is certainly no reason why you should say "based on Amazon hourly charts" so that everyone else can rightly treat the following comment with the amount of skepticism as it deserves given the source of the data.
It's fine to say "I think based upon ... that ..." I do that all the time and it's what most of the discussion in these threads are based around but it is absolutely not okay to make statements as fact without any actual data to back it up.
As far as your theory goes I think it's specious at best. There's absolutely no evidence to back up this assertion that slim was not a sales driver prior to the week in question especially given the estimates we have on Pro sales as a % of total sales for the month. In fact I'd posit that's far more likely the Pro received the vast vast majority of its sales in its initial release window and that the majority of sales throughout the month were always slim outside of that short burst upon release. This is the sort of trajectory that would line up with the somewhat low debut sales theory is said to have had. Quite simply your conclusions don't really line up with the little data we do have at all and while we don't have the data to prove otherwise we know enough to see that such a sales pattern would be incredibly unlikely.
I know, I was just making the association with another year. It isn't out of the question since X1 should have carried the momentum from November and December of 2014 into January 2015 but it didn't.
I don't understand how it would be more up in the air if PS4 wins though. As you said, PS4 barely won in November with Pro. To go from that to taking December without Pro would make it rather clear that the PS4 would be back on top as usual. The deals on both were on par with each other through December too.
Are we getting leaks again this month or is that shut down?
Agreed. Also I don't really see a scenario where PS4 sold more this December. Even with the Pro it barely sold more. I think what's happening now is that the old 360 fanbase that was heretofore unwilling to buy in, are now getting in at the 249-299 price.
That year Microsoft only won November and December due to heavy discounting. But this year Microsoft is coming with a string Xbox S launch giving them SEPTEMBER and October. So I think Microsoft momentum's reason are totally different this time around. And these reasons are not going to go away in January like last time when they hiked the prices back upHmm, assuming MS does take December, I wonder if it will be like 2014 going into 2015 with the PS4 taking the following January. Basically, the X1 momentum was on account of the holiday period rather than momentum built up that continues into the next year.
The X1S has been doing well though. So, it has the potential to keep it going this month too.
Edit - Oh, aren't we getting leaked numbers this month?
From what I have gathered on GAF, the price points (and deals) have been very similar in December. Was that also the case in the months when Xbox one was ahead?
If not then there's a reason PS4 might come out on top in December right there, a big one.
It's never been that way this gen so I don't see it changing now. PS4 has even outsold Xbox at $50 more in America. Only time it hasn't is when Xbox has been significantly more discounted. There's insufficient data on our end to make any concrete statements about the PS4 Slim/Pro. We simply don't know how well the Pro did or will continue to do and we don't know how many didn't buy a PS4 in September/October because of the Pro. We do know the Pro has a shortage, while not sold out everywhere we do know Sony wasn't able to keep up with demand in December.I feel like the price sensitive 360 fans are more predisposed to staying within the ecosystem though due to being able to carry over their old games, xblg, friends, etc. So with price parity I feel like xbox one gets the edge.
I feel like the price sensitive 360 fans are more predisposed to staying within the ecosystem though due to being able to carry over their old games, xblg, friends, etc. So with price parity I feel like xbox one gets the edge.
It's never been that way this gen so I don't see it changing now. PS4 has even outsold Xbox at $50 more in America. Only time it hasn't is when Xbox has been significantly more discounted. There's insufficient data on our end to make any concrete statements about the PS4 Slim/Pro. We simply don't know how well the Pro did or will continue to do and we don't know how many didn't buy a PS4 in September/October because of the Pro. We do know the Pro has a shortage, while not sold out everywhere we do know Sony wasn't able to keep up with demand in December.
It's never been that way this gen so I don't see it changing now. PS4 has even outsold Xbox at $50 more in America. Only time it hasn't is when Xbox has been significantly more discounted. There's insufficient data on our end to make any concrete statements about the PS4 Slim/Pro. We simply don't know how well the Pro did or will continue to do and we don't know how many didn't buy a PS4 in September/October because of the Pro. We do know the Pro has a shortage, while not sold out everywhere we do know Sony wasn't able to keep up with demand in December.
It's never been that way this gen so I don't see it changing now. PS4 has even outsold Xbox at $50 more in America. Only time it hasn't is when Xbox has been significantly more discounted. There's insufficient data on our end to make any concrete statements about the PS4 Slim/Pro. We simply don't know how well the Pro did or will continue to do and we don't know how many didn't buy a PS4 in September/October because of the Pro. We do know the Pro has a shortage, while not sold out everywhere we do know Sony wasn't able to keep up with demand in December.
Where are there Pro shortages in the US?
We know Pro had nothing to do with PS4 being outsold since, if we go with your start with September, the XB1 still leads by 42K.
September Gap: +48K
October Gap: +94K
November Gap: -100K
Right now, the idea that Pro is the reason the PS4 was losing is incorrect. The XB1S is seen as the more desirable product over the PS4.
It's also the fastest selling console on the market in the U.S for the past 3 months. Xbox One sales closed the gap by more than 450 consoles on average per day
significantly outpacing the nearest competitor.
Where are there Pro shortages in the US?
We know Pro had nothing to do with PS4 being outsold since, if we go with your start with September, the XB1 still leads by 42K.
September Gap: +48K
October Gap: +94K
November Gap: -100K
Right now, the idea that Pro is the reason the PS4 was losing is incorrect. The XB1S is seen as the more desirable product over the PS4.
Yup. Sony should wrap it up in the US. Switch will just make matters worse.
So did you subtract the sales of fat X1s from the Xbox total?
'should wrap it up'?
[3DS] 498k
[PS4] 50000k
[WIU] 110k
[XB1] 1085k
Aaron?It's also the fastest selling console on the market in the U.S for the past 3 months. Xbox One sales closed the gap by more than 450 consoles on average per day
significantly outpacing the nearest competitor.
Sarcasm.
A really good month for Sony. Like... Really Good.
Aaron?
I think we'll see a narrow PS4 win in Dec, as indicated by both the Adobe report and the comfortable Amazon win (not using it as an extrapolation, but it is a vendor representing ... maybe 5 to 10% of the market. Specially with Cyber Monday included).
Let's see what Abdiel tells us as for BB.
January... I feel we'll see a return to "normal".
XB1 "crash", PS4 doing well to really well for 3/4 months before the spring slow down, as I think the XB1S saw a boost thanks to the combined effect of novelty design/ 4K uhdBR and a few strong exclusives (GeoW4/ FH3) plus the BF1 hype. Early 4K adopters will have one by now, and disks don't seem to be flying off the shelves, so the format itself isn't really taking it seems so far (and likely won't until Disney goes in).
Early 4K adopters will have one by now, and disks don't seem to be flying off the shelves, so the format itself isn't really taking it seems so far (and likely won't until Disney goes in).
You mean according to Gaf expectations, yeah?We know that PS4 is selling less than expected with a Pro bump.
Can we subtract regular PS4 sales as well then, because then it's even worse for PS4.
Sarcasm.
If they win December in spite of the few signs we have, it'll depend largely on the margin of the win.Just out of curiosity what do you think happens if X1 wins December. Back to status quo in January or have they turned the corner?
Has the "predict 2017 console sales" (total year) thread been posted yet? Can't find it.
You claimed that the X1s seen as a better proposition than the ps4 slim and pro?
Figured you had some data directly comparing the two groups.
Maybe we should wait for December sales before proclaiming the return of the king especially considering X1 sales were down Yoy too despite the greatness of the X1S.
Need to finish 2016 first. Usually goes up around or just before the January prediction thread, which won't be till the end of January or so. I expect it to be just PS4, XB1, and NSW ().Wait, that's a problematic acronym. Need to come up with something different. :lol