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[Shin]

Does slide state anywhere that they are indeed comparing to console APUs?

I believe AMD is comparing Ryzen with their previous APU, if I counted correctly then that should be the 7th gen in GCN (Excavator architecture (2016): Bristol Ridge and Stoney Ridge).
The APU's in PS4/XB1 were a first generation in the GCN line of system-on-chip I think, which makes that slide even more impressive when you think about it and if I'm right.

 

[BigEmil]

as long as MS keeps play anywhere around, they pretty much put a nail in the coffin for any of their future consoles for me. that puts more of my budget towards the ps5, i wouldnt mind payijng $400 or $500. but would that put the mid-gen refresh price at $550-$600? F that.

Yep same here, with Xbox no longer having anymore exclusives future Xbox consoles is now 100% pass no reason to buy Xbox if you can play it's exclusives on PC and also I'm not paying for both PS+ and XBL so Xbox games on PC means that plus no need to pay for XBL can just stick with PS+. I was gonna buy a Xbox One before but after finding out all their exclusives will be on PC now it's gone for me

 

[KOHIPEET]

I think, with the Pro, Sony is good for at least another 2 years. IMO they'll announce it in Feb 2020 and release it Nov. There's no need to rush. And I'm actually OK with paying 499 for a nextgen console.

 

[Some Nobody]

I bought the PS4 Off the strength of my belief in Sony's hardware and ability to get third-party titles. But that was at $399. $100 higher and I'm passing until the costs comes down. Launch window games generally suck.

So many "enthusiasts" sat around begging for $600 systems after the PS4 specs were revealed, and maybe Microsoft/Sony gives in, but I'm thinking I won't be the only person sitting on the sidelines if it happens.

The truth is Sony did everything they could to get the PS4 to sell, and that's including a $399 console. But nothing's changed, the smallest mistake when the new hardware comes out and it could still crater and we end up getting Remasters for 2-3 years.

Sidenote: This article went a long way to convincing me that the PS5/Xbox Next are 2020 things.

 

[joecanada]

I could see 499 ps5 only in one scenario that the games run on pspro and pro is say 299 or so .... Otherwise big companies never just abandon a successful model ... No way the only PlayStation available in 2019 is a 499 model. No way

 

[Yopis]

Don't mind 500.

Felt okay about 600.

Sad this industry can't get people to spend 100 more.

 

[AmyS]

https://www.gamespot.com/articles/tim-sweeney-criticizes-microsoftoculus-and-talks-p/1100-6441734/

part of a GameSpot interview with Tim Sweeney:

Do you think that we'll ever approach photo-realistic graphics? If so, when, and how many Teraflops do you think we'll need?

You know, we're getting to the point now where we can render photo-realistic static scenes without humans with static lighting. Today's hardware can do that, so part of that problem is solved. Getting to the point of photo-realistic dynamic environments, especially with very advanced shading models like wet scenes, or reflective scenes, or anisotropic paint, though...maybe forty Teraflops is the level where we can achieve all of that.

Former Criterion technology director Paul Ross had this to say about next gen consoles:

https://www.videogamer.com/news/pla...ers-build-far-more-dynamic-interactive-worlds

Speaking to EDGE, Ross, who left Criterion in 2014 to co-found Three Fields Entertainment, said that when work first started on the studio's debut title Dangerous Golf, he remembers "sitting here thinking, OK, what does a PlayStation 5 game look like? What does an Xbox Two game look like? And how can we start to build for that future now?"

He continued: "Physics engines haven't changed since I did the physics on [Dreamcast game] TrickStyle. They're all about rigid bodies, solid objects. This is a real paradigm shift because it's about simulating physics at a molecular level. It's been a really hard problem to solve for quite a while.

"So what does a PS5 game look like? With PS4 we've seen some fidelity put into the worlds, but PS5's going to be about more dynamic worlds, far more interactive worlds that are more believable in the way they behave."

I think the difference between current gen (including PS4, Xbone X, PS4 Pro and X1X) and next gen, will be far more dynamic worlds 7 physics, in addition to higher scene complexity / detail.

 

[Jigorath]

I doubt Sony goes above $399 after how successful PS4 was, even if they have to take a loss on the console early, it's not a huge deal thanks to the massive PS+ subscriber base and the continued sales of PS4.

 

[Fuchsdh]

I get the point of the article in comparing the XB1X to the base PS4, but I think that mostly illuminates how compared to where we got just a few years later, both the PS4 and Xbox were, as people grumbled at the time, sort of weak for the next generation, especially with the XB1 not quite hitting 1080p in most titles, with 60fps proving difficult, and with 4K coming down the pipe.

I think Microsoft is fine in that it moving away from pretty regimented generations means it doesn't have to worry too much about this—I expect that the Xbox One X will remain pretty premium priced until they can afford to drop it, the same way that PlayStation 4 Pro doesn't have to do amazingly to have a long-term benefit for Sony. Two years out? That $499 could drop to $399 or $349 and they could have a new SKU at the $500, and they won't be making the same mistake they made with the base XB1 because you still have more affordable power that plays the same games and still plays them better than the console most people currently have.

(Also a random interesting thing I thought about the other day is how in 2013 Microsoft and Apple both released hardware based on where they thought tech was headed—Microsoft towards cloud-supported, always-on gaming, and Apple towards multi-GPU workloads. Both were "right" in that those use cases have appeared, but they were basically mistargeted at their original audiences. Games and VR and GPU compute still trend towards local horsepower and big and hot GPUs, and with 4K that's unlikely to change.)

 

[godhandiscen]

IMHO the PS5 cannot launch without making the X1X look outdated and to accomplish that while keeping a decent price, we are looking at 2019-2020.

 

[PuppetMaster]

DF and their clickbait question videos are really cluttering my YouTube feed.

I wish I could just get Face-Off and Analysis videos.

I unsubed them recently. They are going too hard for the clicks now.

 

[JamesHolden]

The size of an APU is pretty static, new process nodes give you more density. For those predicting a year where next gen consoles arrive based on strategic decisions by MS or Sony seems dumb. They aren't in control of nodes. We will see next gen systems when the foundries allow it, and one more node shrink isn't likely to bring more than incremental improvement. This could be a LONG generation.

 

[gatti-man]

I just really REALLY hope we see an orders of magnitude jump in CPU. Come on guys give us more enemies and dynamic AI. X1X and Pro are already pretty good graphics wise. Small GPU bump BIG CPU bump pretty please.

 

[rokkerkory]

I just really REALLY hope we see an orders of magnitude jump in CPU. Come on guys give us more enemies and dynamic AI. X1X and Pro are already pretty good graphics wise. Small GPU bump BIG CPU bump pretty please.

Next iterationsi bet will focus on cpu!

 

[Proelite]

I would personally love to see $499 as the base price for consoles going forward. Adjusted for inflation, it's the same price as $299 PS2 in 2001.

Build the most powerful console you can for > $500 and sell for small loss.

 

[SmoothRunningGun]

This gen is probably going to last 10 years so plenty of time to save up.

 

[Renekton]

How out of touch do you have to be to believe this?

TheYanger is correct.

 

[duhmetree]

I just really REALLY hope we see an orders of magnitude jump in CPU. Come on guys give us more enemies and dynamic AI. X1X and Pro are already pretty good graphics wise. Small GPU bump BIG CPU bump pretty please.

This is the most important component..

Graphically we had games like UC4 and Horizon with 1.84TF. GoW4 was shown on ogps4 only.... GPU is not the problem. Sure, some of the power will go to resolution but there's more than enough to go around. 10TF should be possible by 2019 along with possibly 3x the bandwidth

What the hell will a Naughty Dog game look like with that much power?

 

[gamerMan]

It's diminishing returns from this point on. Even though the teraflops have increased, you need a microscope to see any noticeable onscreen difference. We can't really have generational leaps again at a reasonable cost. We are getting to the point where we need an astronomical bump in hardware to see a small improvement in onscreen visuals.

 

[unknownstranger]

$499 wouldn't surprise me. By the time the next gen consoles come out, my guess is base PS4/XBO (with 1TB hardrives) will be $199 and PS4 Pro/Xbox One X (with 2 TB hardrives) will be $299. I'll be shocked if next gen consoles aren't backwards compatible with this gen, but I only see them being $399 if they do base versions and not Pro/One X.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Has there ever been a successful console priced about $399? There's your answer right there.

 

[Omega Kirby]

Yep same here, with Xbox no longer having anymore exclusives future Xbox consoles is now 100% pass no reason to buy Xbox if you can play it's exclusives on PC and also I'm not paying for both PS+ and XBL so Xbox games on PC means that plus no need to pay for XBL can just stick with PS+. I was gonna buy a Xbox One before but after finding out all their exclusives will be on PC now it's gone for me

Microsoft don't care so much about hardware sales, they make a lot more money from Software and XBL, hence why they put their games on PC as well. In the end you're still giving them your money

 

[TransTrender]

Very intresting talk. If next gen comes in the next two years or something we are gonna pay alot more then we like.

I don't think we will.
$399.99 launch skus.

 

[120v]

Has there ever been a successful console priced about $399? There's your answer right there.

adjusted for inflation, sure

it's not so much about price but circumstance. there are scenarios where $500 won't be a big deal, some where a console would be DOA, really depends on how things play out in the next few years and what's feasible from an engineering perspective

 

[LukasTaves]

All consoles have dampers to reduce noise (otherwise the chassis would vibrate), but it doesn't affect the throughput speed.

By interface you mean SATA, right? SATA moves electrons, so it's not affected by mechanical vibration.

I meant they made 2 claims. One was that they did improve something on the interface, and the other was that the HDD is mechanically isolated because that also affects performance.

My memory is a bit fuzzy about the interface bit, but the mechanical bit was said during E3, when major assembled a xbonex with am engineer.

 

[spazchicken]

MS is allowing the XB1X to be $500 because they can. It itself is an alternative product for those who want and can afford something extra. As long as the masses can enjoy the same games with a more affordable price with great quality, they can go all out with it. I doubt MS is expecting to sell 60 million XB1Xs.

When the next generation starts, is when they will go back to being competitive in the price department and maybe conservative in the power department. I'm sure it'll be another three years at least before that happens, unfortunately.

 

[HooYaH]

I'm fine with $500 or $600 if it's worth it, but I'll be pissed if games are $70+.

 

[arhra]

Does slide state anywhere that they are indeed comparing to console APUs?

They're comparing to their current (7th-gen) laptop APUs, Bristol Ridge.

 

[Space_nut]

If they want a proper jump in graphics and price to fit in a $400-$500 console, 2021-2022 earliest. This would give time for more game sequels to come out too and devs to really push these consoles further

 

[Chill Penguin]

Has there ever been a successful console priced about $399? There's your answer right there.

Before the 360, was there ever a successful console priced above $299? Inflation is a thing. By 2020 I expect a new console to be $499. If it's $399 it'll be underpowered.

 

[Suburban Thug]

Anything over $399.99 for a base model would be laughable

 

[Frostburn]

To push true 4K at a steady 30 or 60 FPS you need a lot of GPU power, consoles can't remain at $300 or $400 especially if the prices don't significantly drop. Once you are pushing higher res screens you get stuck having that high end GPU to drive it.

 

[jrDev]

Why?

For their opinion on what might be coming in the next couple years?

Kind of worthless at this point.

Remember back before the PS4 and the Xbox One existed and people were speculating that the next gen systems would realistically have 2GB RAM. Or how about when the CEO of Crytek was saying the next gen systems would need 8GB RAM and everyone laughed at him.
And then when 8GB GDDR5 RAM was confirmed everyone was going wild with price speculations, mostly $599 but none seriously considered $400.

We didnt have a freaking clue what was possible for the current gen consoles in 2010 and we, including DF, dont have a clue what is possible for the next gen consoles today.

Does this mean 16GB ram PS5?😮

 

[LAM09]

I'd expect PS5 to cost £450 at launch in 2019.

 

[Shin]

I would personally love to see $499 as the base price for consoles going forward. Adjusted for inflation, it's the same price as $299 PS2 in 2001.

Build the most powerful console you can for > $500 and sell for small loss.

We've had it good for years, systems were mainly under $400, game prices hasn't gone up in years ($60), we get weekly deals even on games and to some extent the consoles themselves
There's more in items packed in with consoles than before(headphones, improved joypads, etc etc), there will always be those that don't want to play for online games or those that will still pirate a game even if it cost 4.99.
Given how long console generations last a $100 increase is peanuts and if that let's them put out a more capable machine then go for it.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

PS5 will be $399, you can quote me on that. No way Sony tries to sell it higher especially after the disaster that was PS3 and seeing how well PS4 brought them back from the brink.

They'll do everything they can to keep that sweet spot even if it means taking a loss initially.

 

[curiouscharles]

The size of an APU is pretty static, new process nodes give you more density. For those predicting a year where next gen consoles arrive based on strategic decisions by MS or Sony seems dumb. They aren't in control of nodes. We will see next gen systems when the foundries allow it, and one more node shrink isn't likely to bring more than incremental improvement. This could be a LONG generation.

yeah, especially considering the evolution on console hardware has become rather predictable thanks to the parts used - you're absolutely right.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

People buy 1000$ iPhones. 500$ cell phones every year.

I think folks will just pay via monthly installment plans if the up front costs are too high. Sweeten the deal by throwing in a XBL/PSN sub with the payment plan. Two year contract. Pay off the console or return the console.

I think 400-500 is a decent deal for the length of time consoles last.

 

[Pachinko]

I feel like 499.99 is almost assured for PS5 , even if they wait until 2020. They'll make sure it's packed with enough stuff to make it worthwhile. A CPU that's 4-8X as powerful compared to the lowly jaguar , a GPU that's 10+ TF and 12 GB of GDDR6 combined with 4 GB of DDR4 (for system use). At the same time you'll be able to buy a PS4 Pro in a slimmer configuration for 249.99 or less as well as an even smaller possibly digital only PS4 standard (that may even behave like a PS4 switch) that will cost only 149.99.

Then Probably a year after that we'll get a 12TF XBox one X two also for 499.99 ... and the regular one x will go down to 349.99 with the S model dropping to 99$ if it's even still available.

Richard is correct with this video , we've rubbed up against a wall with silicon , eking out preformance is requiring substantially more work than it used to and unlike in years past , the previous methods of manufacture aren't dropping in price as fast. By 2024 we could actually be stuck without a completely new method of building chips.

 

[Shin]

PS5 will be $399, you can quote me on that.

It probably could because PS4 launched at $399, 3 years later it dropped to $250.
That's $150 saved due to components becoming cheaper and whatever else, the same is going to happen to Ryzen1/2, Vega and GDDR5/GDDR5x.
Hence why I said go with older Vega/Ryzen instead of state of the art Ryzen3/Navi and they can very well keep the price in check while bumping the RAM.

Here this is appropriate, PS3/PS4 BOM and it's what I used for: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=241131034&postcount=189

 

[Tagyhag]

People buy 1000$ iPhones. 500$ cell phones every year.

I think folks will just pay via monthly installment plans if the up front costs are too high. Sweeten the deal by throwing in a XBL/PSN sub with the payment plan. Two year contract. Pay off the console or return the console.

I think 400-500 is a decent deal for the length of time consoles last.

Highly doubt that. Cell phones are almost a necessity in this day and age. Consoles aren't.

 

[Mooreberg]

One X would have to really over perform vs. Xbone and the various $499.99 PS3 SKUs for that launch price to remain a consideration. Who goes for it if the price point is 0-for-3 in sales trajectory by then? These platforms exist to build up an install base to sell software and services to. You have to really ignore history to be unaware of which price points have worked.

 

[Renekton]

Highly doubt that. Cell phones are almost a necessity in this day and age. Consoles aren't.

However cellphones are like PC, any old Dell is good enough for the necessities.

 

[TheDragon]

I assume that the pricing would be near 400 usd and 2020 winter (year end) at the earliest. I hope that 7nm architecture will be mature by then and we will see improvements across the board because of that.

 

[NolbertoS]

If PS5 and Xbox Two come out at 599 or higher, then I'll wait 3-4 years into next gen for a discount. Consoles ahouldn't cost no more than 399 tops for the average joe.

 

[Townrenegade]

There's no way they can go over 500 bucks. Just look what happened when the ps3 launched at 600. ☹

 

[Shin]

However cellphones are like PC, any old Dell is good enough for the necessities.

I think that's part of the allure of consoles, you buy a machine and you expect it to last 5+ years.
It's crazy to think that Sony keeps in production for 10 years even and they seem to be riding just that, hence why - generations.
Microsoft on the other hand is trying to shake things up and I applaud them for that, this industry is probably the slowest moving and least innovative among consumer electronics.
Because of the old model we're not moving forward fast enough and I hate it, but the millions of people that buy these consoles compared to refreshes paint a nice picture.

 

[Switch Back 9]

Easy for Americans to say how they don't mind a $500 console. That shit ends up being a lot more expensive for some of us.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

It's diminishing returns from this point on. Even though the teraflops have increased, you need a microscope to see any noticeable onscreen difference. We can't really have generational leaps again at a reasonable cost. We are getting to the point where we need an astronomical bump in hardware to see a small improvement in onscreen visuals.

Agreed.

I look at these visual comparisons between PS4 pro and top of the line PC, and there is a difference, but the gap doesnt seem to be as big as before.

PC right now is what a PS5 would be, and mehh.

I really really really hope developers developers aren't shamed into still supporting 1080p with the PS5, and can put that power into framerate.

 

[Tal]

I can't imagine it would be more than 399, whatever technology they can get at that price. The X can only get away with 499 because the S is right there for 250, and even then we have yet to see how that strategy pans out.