-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
Digital Foundry: If Xbox One X is $500 - How much will next-gen consoles cost?
- Thread starter Theorry
- Start date
Shin
Banned
What amazes me is that 2 SKU's launch isn't the norm...
You got your basic model and a premium version, can aim to keep the $399 tag while offering a more souped up version at a higher price - $499/599.
If your're losing money on the basic you could off-set some of it with the premium model.
You already know that there's 2* markets, the casual and the enthusiast (as seen with the refreshes) and that the latter will opt for the more high-end version.
Out of the gate those enthusiast and probably converters might just go for the more expensive model, knowing that they'll be set for the rest of the generation.
Instead you're waiting 3 years for prices to go down and possible new GPU architecture, when in the meantime you could have gotten about the same out of the gate but at a higher price.
In all that time you would have probably sold more premium models than launching it middle of the generation.
You got your basic model and a premium version, can aim to keep the $399 tag while offering a more souped up version at a higher price - $499/599.
If your're losing money on the basic you could off-set some of it with the premium model.
You already know that there's 2* markets, the casual and the enthusiast (as seen with the refreshes) and that the latter will opt for the more high-end version.
Out of the gate those enthusiast and probably converters might just go for the more expensive model, knowing that they'll be set for the rest of the generation.
Instead you're waiting 3 years for prices to go down and possible new GPU architecture, when in the meantime you could have gotten about the same out of the gate but at a higher price.
In all that time you would have probably sold more premium models than launching it middle of the generation.
Sony did this with PS3 but the only price everyone heard was "599 US dollars". I don't blame them for wanting everyone to focus on one SKU.
Even a 6 tflop console with an actual cpu would be meaningfully more powerful than XOX.
Shin
Banned
The only difference there was the HDD it's not the same, but I get your point.
$499 is easier to swallow than $599 but in the case of the PS3 it was the same hardware, no improvement to the components whatsoever.
Watch the DF video in the OP, you can see they agree with him considering the amount of engineering that went into XoX.
Robot Pants
Member
I'm not sure this is quite fair, because there's 8K and 120Hz and 10bpc color and a lot more areas for improvement. I think the issue here isn't hardware, it's the realities of game development. Higher resolution means even more game dev costs, on top of the continued issues with games in NPC AI, realistic animation, etc. What good is all the power to render photorealistic 16K screens with real-life brightness of the sun if making content for it is cost-prohibitive?
Shin
Banned
That's what they did with base PS4/XB1 that shit was underclocked to kingdom come, 50% of the compute units were disabled even (36 --> 18 on PS4), CPU was a default one and not even the most expensive of Jaguars (1.6Ghz, max was 2.0Ghz).
Can repeat the same thing and out of the gate, but Navi is an unknown factor I don't know what it will bring beside more graphical power so delay a Pro model would most likely be with that in mind.
Beerman462
Member
The limitation on new consoles going forward is many factored. Would an 8 or 4 core Ryzen CPU take up more silicon than an 8 core Jaguar? Probably. Outside of that we are still looking at increased GPU grunt that comes from increased clocks(more expensive cooling) or more CUs(more expensive silicon). The XOX has 15-20% more silicon(15-20% increase in price) than the PS4 Pro is clocked higher(more failed chips) and any next gen console will have Ryzen, which might be bigger, more complex or both. Either way it will increase cost of silicon. Then you have memory, which at least for DDR4 has gone up. Going from 4 to 8GB cost AMD $30. How much is 4GB now?
In summary. If a PS5 has Ryzen, is around 8TF(33% more than XOX), has more memory(let's say 16GB), and is still 14nm. I don't see how $399 is possible.
In summary. If a PS5 has Ryzen, is around 8TF(33% more than XOX), has more memory(let's say 16GB), and is still 14nm. I don't see how $399 is possible.
killer rin
Member
Stupid question, it'll be $500 because these hypothetical consoles would be 5 years from now and the high end parts they would use will have come down in price.
gundamkyoukai
Member
That is because no one make games for high end PC.
High PC games would destroy the consoles we have now.
Yea
I was hoping to post this if Microsoft announce this as their price for the X1X. And the first replies on this thread gave me a new reason to post this masterpiece:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BOHqG1nc_tw
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BOHqG1nc_tw
Beerman462
Member
Better draw distance and LoD alone are enough and will only come from increased CPU grunt. The PS4 and XB1 are using CPUs equivalent to the PS360. Consoles are due for increased processing power.
Haint
Member
If Sony released a 4.2TF box in 2016 for $399, it's hardly outrageous to expect MS could have built a 6TF box in 2017 for $399. We're talking a full calendar year removed, I don't know what DF's trying to get at with this article. Flop:Cost is slowing compared to the 100%+ annual gains we used to see, but NOT constant. 40% is well within today's expected annual gains. MS almost certainly could have dropped the extravagant build quality, smallest Xbox ever, and vapor chambers to hit $399. The extra 4GB of RAM is the only unknown, I have no idea the cost add, or what kind of tangible benefit it even affords developers considering they're still targeting OG Xbone's and Base PS4's. If it's a significant BoM contributor, maybe sticking with 8GB to hit $399 would have been a better choice.
The OG 28nm Xbone die was even larger than Scopio's, while the OG PS4's was within spitting distance. The amount of silicon isn't adding $100.
The OG 28nm Xbone die was even larger than Scopio's, while the OG PS4's was within spitting distance. The amount of silicon isn't adding $100.
gundamkyoukai
Member
We will get next gen systems way before 5 years from now.
Even with the mid gen upgrades a gen is not going to last 9 years .
Shin
Banned
You have 7nm/7nm+ to off-set most of that.
We had a weak ass APU back then and nothing in the form of a Ryzen/Vega setup, thankfully AMD got that scheduled so most of the work they are doing for Sony/MS to a certain extent.
Ryzen in next-gen isn't a if but a when it's the only CPU architecture AMD has, Zen2/3 is the same family and it will be 7nm not 14.
A lot of money can/will be saved there I reckon but that's me rephrasing the general consensus of die shrinks and the benefit they bring.
Beerman462
Member
OG PS4 was 28nm. PS4 Pro is 14nm, which we are stuck with until 2019. If a PS5 comes out in late 2019 a $400 PS5 might be a possibility.
I'm sorry but those specs (even with Ryzen) are nowhere near good enough to justify being called PS5
I don't think Sony will dare put out a PS5 unless it's at least twice as powerful as Xbox One X in every area, meaning at minimum, a 12 TF GPU and 24 to 32 GB RAM.
The process node will be either 7nm or 7nm+ (aka true 7nm).
I don't see what's click bait about this article. They are trying to inform the public. What they are saying makes sense.
I don't see them using GDDR6 next gen. I wonder if they'll even go above 16GB next gen.
Beerman462
Member
Yeah, well no $399 then.
Omega Kirby
Member
Just hopes its waterproof to at least 50 feet
Beerman462
Member
Because of tears?
gundamkyoukai
Member
Why ?
7nm will give us 10 tflops easy .
The question is if it going to be 2019 or 2020.
Worth bearing in mind that PS4 and X1X are both 'makes profit with game/subscription' models, meaning you could theoretically have a $450 piece of hardware for $399/$499 for $450.
That extra $50 could account for a few things, surely.
Plus - fitting even the existing consoles with a decent CPU would've changed the complexion of this gen IMO. While frame rate is a design decision, it's a decision made within the context of known hardware performance.
That extra $50 could account for a few things, surely.
Plus - fitting even the existing consoles with a decent CPU would've changed the complexion of this gen IMO. While frame rate is a design decision, it's a decision made within the context of known hardware performance.
Beerman462
Member
That's what I said earlier. Prior to 7nm? Good luck.
Neander
Member
Yea, if they stuck with 8GB RAM, stuck with a regular BD drive and made the console the same size without the vapor chamber they could have reached $399. But no. I would never buy that a year later for the same price. They would have been mocked to no end. And to suggest that there are no tangible benefits to devs with the extra 4 GB of RAM is preposterous.
And this is the problem MS will face. By going so much ahead in specs they may have created higher than needed expectations.
But the issue overall.. Do Sony and MS look at their base models or the mid gen refreshes when factoring in their next gen systems.
Shin
Banned
Me neither to be honest and GDDR5x is more than enough when you do the math.
Initial production of GDDR6 will be limited which will drive the cost up, the nVidia/AMD will be after it for their GPU's.
Good question, the difference should be 2x though or you're going to have an even harder time selling it to your consumers.
Also Sony could use a normal BD drive for the base model and UHD for Pro --> $15 saved.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Well yeah i don't think anyone see Sony bringing out a new console without 7nm .
Which is why everyone talking about 2019 \2020 time .
Sony will look at there base model since that is where most people going to be upgrading from .
60 million PS4 sold and Pro has to be around 2.5 million the most .
If Sony get to around 100 million by then the most pro will be is 10 million (if we being really nice to it sales )
You think Sony's going to wait until 2020+ for their next console? And by different proposition, do you mean what you get for that $500 is going to be better bang for your buck (of course, compared to today), or that $500 isn't expensive (subjective)?
399? I don't understand the question. Whatever Sony could feasibly get in 2019/2020 for that mass market price point.
Of course they are waiting for 7nm, Zen+, GDDR6 and Navi to move forward, but those technologies will make what currently seems hard to fathom much easier in a few years time.
I watched the video earlier today and i didn't really get what Richard was saying. What applies today obviously doesn't apply in 2 or 3 years.
Moore's law is obviously dying in the computer space until graphene or quantum computing takes over(if they ever do), but the fact of the matter is the gains for a significantly stronger machine than PS4, that would do thing PS4 can't are still very possible
Of course they are waiting for 7nm, Zen+, GDDR6 and Navi to move forward, but those technologies will make what currently seems hard to fathom much easier in a few years time.
I watched the video earlier today and i didn't really get what Richard was saying. What applies today obviously doesn't apply in 2 or 3 years.
Moore's law is obviously dying in the computer space until graphene or quantum computing takes over(if they ever do), but the fact of the matter is the gains for a significantly stronger machine than PS4, that would do thing PS4 can't are still very possible
4GB GDDR5 isn't a big dent in the BoM. The vapour chambers were needed not because of the form factor but because of the clocks since they had to pre-empt and jump with the 6TF number.
We very well know that 6TF isn't a magic number to hit 4K but that's the number they could achieve with a few possible combinations, one of which happened to be not Vega based and higher clocked.
To sum up, Xbox One X is not Vega, is not Zen and yet costs $499 in its base configuration. That says a lot about Microsoft's intentions and strategy regarding this generation.
Shin
Banned
Have to consider R&D as well which isn't in the bill-of-materials, I assume every platform holder will try to make as much money as possible to not break the bank.
AMD's 7nm is more like 10nm. 7nm+ is true 7nm. 2019 is too soon. Expect PS5 holiday 2020 at the earliest, holiday 2021 at the latest. Holiday 2021 would be preferable from a technology/price standpoint. Also give devs time to recoup cost this gen and roll on to next. I'm hoping for 5nm and a holiday 2021 release. AMD's Mega Apu and Stacked ram might be a possibility by then.
Sanctuary
Member
Sure, but...
http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/10/04/comparing-the-price-of-every-game-console-with-inflation
$450 is about where we should be today at most.
PS5 is NOT going to be released before holiday 2020. For a 2019 release means games have ALREADY been in deveopment for it aiming for launch. Not to mention devkits being sent out. 2019 is a pipe dream.
Shin
Banned
The cheapest way to go for a PS5 would be either GDDR5 or GDDR5x, no UHD drive, go with Vega/Zen1/2, they could fit 32Gb in there and come out at $399 then wait for Navi/Zen3 for PS5Pro.
That makes most the most sense to me from a competitive point of view, they could butcher Vega, disable CU's and downclock it's core to bring cost down.
Most important thing is the amount of memory and the CPU, those are the 2 key department they shouldn't cheap out on.
That makes most the most sense to me from a competitive point of view, they could butcher Vega, disable CU's and downclock it's core to bring cost down.
Most important thing is the amount of memory and the CPU, those are the 2 key department they shouldn't cheap out on.
gundamkyoukai
Member
They most likely would need a UHD drive because of how big games going to be .
Still that really can't carry up the cost by that much maybe $7 to $12 the most .
For RAM the could split the type to keep the cost down like cheap 4GB for OS and stuff .
7nm 10tflop Navi GPU, 16GB GDDR6/HBM at 600+GB/s with a Zen+CPU has been my guess for a while.
People gotta understand that a potential PS5 with the specs up there is not supposed to be compared with an Xbox One X or PSpro, its following after PS4 and XB1.
What i listed is an extreme jump compared to the base machines and would, eventually, be what Sony considers their new baseline like PS4 base is right now.
Compared to iterative machines in scorpio and PSPro which would fall down because of their weak CPU's alone(and especially in Pro's case, its bandwidth disadvantage), its not really fair to compare the two entirely different types of devices.
People gotta understand that a potential PS5 with the specs up there is not supposed to be compared with an Xbox One X or PSpro, its following after PS4 and XB1.
What i listed is an extreme jump compared to the base machines and would, eventually, be what Sony considers their new baseline like PS4 base is right now.
Compared to iterative machines in scorpio and PSPro which would fall down because of their weak CPU's alone(and especially in Pro's case, its bandwidth disadvantage), its not really fair to compare the two entirely different types of devices.
Shin
Banned
I think it will be 8/16 with 2 cores dedicated to OS/background tasks and 24Gb with 4Gb allocated to OS.
Nothing to back this up, just seems logical to me since UI will be 4K and other shits, has to be snappy.
Split memory adds complexity to the board and is likely more expensive than just reserving some from a single pool.