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[Taggen86]

Very unlikely we will see new consoles before 2020 since ms/sony need 7nm transistor technology to provide a substantial GPU leap within the 399-499 USD cost range. The first AMD 7nm graphic cards (VEGA 20 NAVI 10) has a target for fall/spring 2018 (http://www.tweaktown.com/news/55875/amd-launch-monster-navi-10-2019-next-gen-ram/index.html). Add some delays and the fact that consoles usually use a few years old graphic technology (and add the existence of the half gen consoles) and fall 2020 or later seems likely.

Given that the first two 7nm AMD cards planned for 2018 are 20-30 TFLOPS cards, I expect at least 10 TFLOPS for the new consoles (but 15 may be more likely). A GPU twice as capable of scorpio (at least 12 TFLOPS) combined with Ryzen would provide a substantial leap over both XB1X and PS PRO, i think. CPU is a huge bottleneck in the current gen consoles, dont forget that. I bet we will see very few multiplat AA titles in 60 fps on XB1X (destiny, the new ass creed, athem are all 30 fps on XB1X)

 

[Hermii]

I think if you asked ps4 Pro owners if they wanted even more IQ or 60 FPS I bet over 90 % would say frame rate and graphics is now diminishing returns.

Also how can someone say 499 $ is to much, it depends what the value is and what you get for the money over $ 399 which could be a turd in a box.

If Sony or Ms wanted a 60fps box, it would have more CPU cores and less gpu.

 

[Negotiator]

I think Xbox X will have an easier time playing Xbox Two games than PS4 pro playing PS5 games

Forget that, unless you want Xbox Two to be shackled by the ancient Jaguar.

MS wouldn't let Sony tout the "superior PS5 NPC count/A.I. thanks to Zen CPU technology", would they?

 

[Shin]

I'd bet loading is gonna become even slower because of the 4k assets.

This is one of the biggest problems moving to 4k, both companies need to find a middle ground to speed up loading, not sure if hybrid HDD's alone will make any relevant difference.

 

[120v]

It's an interesting question. I suppose we'll have to see how the XB1X sells. If it is only a small percentage of overall XB1 sales, I think we'll continue to see consoles priced around $299-$399, and the PS5 will have a little more power than the XB1X, a year or so later for $399, with the benefit of its exclusives, etc. If the XB1X becomes a hit and sells better than the XB1S? Then it might be interesting... and by interesting, I mean expensive. But I think whatever happens, we've entered an age where value/premium console choice is a thing, so the PS5 might be around XB1X in power, but I think we'll see a Pro model that is $500+. Again, what the market will tolerate has yet to be seen.

around 2020 or later $500 for a ps5/nextbox will be a completely different proposition than what 1X is in 2017

apples and oranges

 

[bebop242]

I know for me personally, I'm team $400 for next gen. Any higher and I'll wait. Having a gaming PC for the first time will make the wait easier.

 

[LukasTaves]

Looking at those right now, 1Tb 5400RPM 52,- euro vs 1Tb 7200RPM 54,- euro. both are HGST HDD's.
I'm really curious if that 50% boost is because of a 7200RPM HDD or something else, whether it's "revolutionary" or a side effect of increased memory and/or bandwidth.
There isn't anything they can do to the HDD interface itself AFAIK so what gives?

I can't search right now but I think they did something on the interface, and the HDD on xbonex has dampers, because according to them the vibrations from its rotation make it slightly slower.

 

[Yautja_Warrior]

The $500 is premium model cost though. Given historic behaviour the safe choice remains $399 or maybe $449. More then that and you clearly risk mass market rejection. Majority are looking for a value choice (which is combination of price and specs) not a premium choice.

Yeah exactly, next gen will start with a mass market product, not a premium niche product like the Xbox One X.

$399 ($449 max) would be the best price option for the mass market. People expecting an expensive monster consoles might be disappointed. But even at $399 next gen should still be a decent upgrade over current gen (providing the CPU is decent next time)

 

[Shin]

As we move to 4k with all bells and whistles (probably not the next gen) it will become harder to persuade customers they need to upgrade to e.g. PS6/XB3.
We'll be stuck at 4k for a while just as PC have for years and still is, I rather they do a good job and extend the next generation longer than PS3 to PS4 one.
I could care less about the price, $500 is fine just don't give us shit in a box and expect to like it cuz I'll be skipping it then just as I've skipped this generation.

#2SKUTeam, core and premium out of the gate!

 

[Negotiator]

I can't search right now but I think they did something on the interface, and the HDD on xbonex has dampers, because according to them the vibrations from its rotation make it slightly slower.

All consoles have dampers to reduce noise (otherwise the chassis would vibrate), but it doesn't affect the throughput speed.

By interface you mean SATA, right? SATA moves electrons, so it's not affected by mechanical vibration.

 

[TatteredHat]

They can't go much higher than that before the value proposition falls in to question, so I don't think we'll see them moving about $500

 

[Omega Kirby]

Forget that, unless you want Xbox Two to be shackled by the ancient Jaguar.

MS wouldn't let Sony tout the "superior PS5 NPC count/A.I. thanks to Zen CPU technology", would they?

Cross gen ports are always a thing for the first year or so, so just saying X users will probably have acceptable/average performance a little bit longer than pro users until they need to upgrade

 

[E-Cat]

Cross gen ports are always a thing for the first year or so, so just saying X users will probably have acceptable/average performance a little bit longer than pro users until they need to upgrade

He probably thought you were referring to cross-gen compatibility, not ports.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Console manufacturers will be able to build a console vastly more powerful than Xbox One X for around the same cost as soon as early next year as AMD's Raven Ridge APUs are a comparative giant leap over the previous gen of APUs that are inside current consoles:

50% more CPU grunt whilst using 50% less power. And that's coming later this year.

 

[Shin]

They can't go much higher than that before the value proposition falls in to question, so I don't think we'll see them moving about $500

That is the funny thing, when your competitor launched 2 consoles at $499 it just makes you look good and the whole ordeal normal.
Higher chance it's accepted by the general public in comparison to just 1 platform holder doing it alone (or so I think, but who knows).
I honestly don't get the obsession with 199, 299, 399, hell the thing lasts you 5-10 years easily if not faulty by design and maintained properly.

#damn_filthy_casuals!

 

[OgCarnage]

I think if you asked ps4 Pro owners if they wanted even more IQ or 60 FPS I bet over 90 % would say frame rate and graphics is now diminishing returns.

For TV gaming (not monitor) 2160c is more than good enough I really cant see the difference, hell 1800c is hard to see its not full 4K.

Also how can someone say 499 $ is to much, it depends what the value is and what you get for the money over $ 399 which could be a turd in a box.

I agree, I'm all for more stable running games. But there peoplle saying it's too much. I'm sure its mostly teens who depend on parents for money or unemployed gamers. $500 dollars is hefty but it's more than worth it for what's inside the box.

 

[jroc74]

I think Xbox X will have an easier time playing Xbox Two games than PS4 pro playing PS5 games

This is part of the reason why I said MS might have a head start into next gen.

And I just thought of something.

Remember how the PS4, XBO were so similar in specs. What if to try to deal with ram prices the PS5 comes out in 2018 with 12-14 GB of RAM?

It would be similar to XBO X, but a next gen console with Ryzen. Launching a year after the competitions mid gen refresh. I can't see the PS5 with 16GB or more and be under 499.

Which makes me think it will be a smaller jump from XBO X to the next XBO vs going from Pro to PS5.

MS might have went for too much with the XBO X in relation to their next gen console. They might be in a perpetual state of having to launch their consoles at 499.

Or having to do a mid range and a high end console and communicating that to the public. Their next gen consoles would be mid range.

I think for MS alot more is riding on the success of the XBO X vs Sony and what they want from the Pro.

 

[lukeskymac]

"Inflate"

A 400 dollar box in 2 years won't be meaningfully more powerful than a 500 dollar one this fall.

How out of touch do you have to be to believe this?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

How out of touch do you have to be to believe this?

I mean, the thinking is that in four years, we managed to go from the PS4 to X1X for $100 more and that... is not a very big jump at all.

 

[Peltz]

How out of touch do you have to be to believe this?

He said "meaningfully" which is a subjective notion.

 

[Shin]

I can't see the PS5 with 16GB or more and be under 499.

It is definitely possible if we go by the past 2 generations and their associated cost +$100
Use Vega instead of jumping on the newest/best - Navi, downclock it like you did with Polaris for better yields/cost.
And you got yourself a 24Gb system with 9.6TF a Ryzen 7/18 around 3.2 - 3.3Ghz and we're golden, they got a lot of choices.

 

[BlitzerRadic]

Was team 399, but giving it some thought, I think 499 is possible. I think Sony may try to leverage the strength of the playstation brand (like they did with PS3) and launch at 499. It will sell out for the first year to early adopters and then drop the price to 399 after year one.
The narrative of being the most powerful console for most of this gen has served Sony well and I doubt Sony will give that up to MS who seems to have no problem with 499.

 

[Peltz]

It will be interesting to see how much a difference it is going for a Jaguar SoC to a Zen based SoC.

The rest of the hardware and the optimizations Microsoft has done with XboneX is quite spectacular, and it's being held back by this weak ass CPU part

What would an improved CPU offer in terms of enhancements over current CPU's? I am genuinely asking. Everything I hear seems to emphasize the GPU these days.

How exactly would devs use a better CPU? I know almost nothing about this stuff so again, I'm genuinely asking.

 

[duhmetree]

What would an improved CPU offer in terms of enhancements over current CPU's? I am genuinely asking. Everything I hear seems to emphasize the GPU these days.

How exactly would devs use a better CPU? I know almost nothing about this stuff so again, I'm genuinely asking.

It would allow for better AI/physics/framerate

 

[Hermii]

What would an improved CPU offer in terms of enhancements over current CPU's? I am genuinely asking. Everything I hear seems to emphasize the GPU these days.

How exactly would devs use a better CPU? I know almost nothing about this stuff so again, I'm genuinely asking.

As I understand it, framerate, ai, number of npc etc is limited by cpu while resolution, effects, graphics is limited by gpu. Off course it's not that black and white, but it's a generalization.

 

[Shin]

What would an improved CPU offer in terms of enhancements over current CPU's? I am genuinely asking. Everything I hear seems to emphasize the GPU these days.

How exactly would devs use a better CPU? I know almost nothing about this stuff so again, I'm genuinely asking.

Better AI, more enemies on-screen, and a lot more in the case of Ubisoft games and in general higher FPS so smoother gameplay.
Some engines depend too much on CPU (Ubisoft Anvil engine for example) with more cores, high clock speeds and threads they would benefit a lot from it.
There's more to this than those little examples I gave but hopefully it gives you an idea, someone else that's more knowledgeable can chip in.

 

[DBT85]

I'm not expecting much different to current prices simply because the market will not sustain it. The machines won;t be launched until they can do what they want and be the technological leap over Pro/XboneX and do so at a price the market will tolerate.

If the PS5 rocks up in 2019/2020 at £400+ I simply won't be buying it. It won't be a case of having to pay more than I want. I don't care how much whizzbang they put in it. I have a Pro and a decent PC already.

 

[Negotiator]

It would allow for better AI/physics/framerate

Physics are mostly GPU-driven these days. I agree with the rest of your post though.

 

[fastest finger]

As I understand it, framerate, ai, number of npc etc is limited by cpu while resolution, effects, graphics is limited by gpu. Off course it's not that black and white, but it's a generalization.

Wasn't GPGPU was supposed to offset that? Not quite sure it's happened though.

 

[KageMaru]

The $500 is premium model cost though. Given historic behaviour the safe choice remains $399 or maybe $449. More then that and you clearly risk mass market rejection. Majority are looking for a value choice (which is combination of price and specs) not a premium choice.

The X and Pro are not mass market products, so MS and Sony don't have to worry about mass market rejection when the consoles aren't targeting that market.

Console manufacturers will be able to build a console vastly more powerful than Xbox One X for around the same cost as soon as early next year as AMD's Raven Ridge APUs are a comparative giant leap over the previous gen of APUs that are inside current consoles:

50% more CPU grunt whilst using 50% less power. And that's coming later this year.

Do we have an estimated price of that APU? I imagine it'll be a good bit more than what's in the Pro or X. Plus it'll still be on 16nm, we need 7nm before we can start thinking of next gen.

 

[geordiemp]

If Sony or Ms wanted a 60fps box, it would have more CPU cores and less gpu.

Incorrect, it would have faster cores, Ryzen ~ 300 % that of jaguar per core roughly.

Ryzen is out now on PC, but MS was too quick, and maybe Ryzen was just too new (cost) and possibly too big in area to fit with their GPU on one chip.

Question is, will we get 4 or 8 cores, both would blow current consoles out of the water.

My guess is 8 cores so making back compat easier (x86 same as Jaguar), 60 FPS gaming eventually.

You could have a 32 core jaguar and it would still be crap.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

The X and Pro are not mass market products, so MS and Sony don't have to worry about mass market rejection when the consoles aren't targeting that market.



Do we have an estimated price of that APU? I imagine it'll be a good bit more than what's in the Pro or X. Plus it'll still be on 16nm, we need 7nm before we can start thinking of next gen.

That chart is apples to apples comparison between gens, so think of what's inside the Pro and X and a similarly customized Ryzen APU would be much faster. Raven Ridge will encompass lower-end to higher-end models though.

 

[Dabanton]

Well we're very obviously moving towards tiered consoles.

Want a cheaper machine you have want one with more grunt we have that to.

For PS5 I'm expecting, if it's stuffed full of tech $499 at the low end.

 

[Negotiator]

Wasn't GPGPU was supposed to offset that? Not quite sure it's happened though.

GPGPU is a thing in games like Horizon: Zero Dawn and Uncharted 4. Just like Cell SPUs, it's mainly 1st party studios that take advantage of it.

Question is, will we get 4 or 8 cores, both would blow current consoles out of the water.

My guess is 8 cores so making back compat easier (x86 same as Jaguar), 60 FPS gaming eventually.

Yeah, 8 Zen cores is a necessity for console BC.

Currently, 8 Zen cores are more than half of Scorpio's APU die size, so it's not that hard to understand why MS/AMD went with Jaguar again.

7nm is all we need for a next-gen APU.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Well we're very obviously moving towards tiered consoles.

Want a cheaper machine you have want one with more grunt we have that to.

For PS5 I'm expecting, if it's stuffed full of tech $499 at the low end.

If the PS5 launches with a $400 core version and a $700 more powerful version, I would surprised if third-parties targeted the $700 version.

 

[llien]

Console manufacturers will be able to build a console vastly more powerful than Xbox One X for around the same cost as soon as early next year as AMD's Raven Ridge APUs are a comparative giant leap over the previous gen of APUs that are inside current consoles:

50% more CPU grunt whilst using 50% less power. And that's coming later this year.

Does slide state anywhere that they are indeed comparing to console APUs?

 

[kiguel182]

Next gen will be the same price as always. Unless they want to sell much less consoles.

Edit: cheap price is fundamental on a console. That's why Sony does 399 and will probably keep doing that.

 

[EvB]

Next gen will be the same price as always. Unless they want to sell much less consoles.

Edit: cheap price is fundamental on a console. That's why Sony does 399 and will probably keep doing that.

399 will be even cheaper in a few years. You cant keep everything the same price forever.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

While inflation within the tech industry is different than others, it still does exist.

SNES era - $199
PS1 era - $299
PS2 era - $299
360/PS3 era - $299/399/499/599 (quite a huge disparity this gen)
PS4/XB1 era - $399/499

It is gradually shifting upwards, I wouldn't be surprised if it continues to do so and next gen we start seeing either $449 or $499 as standard. In order to provide a meaningful boost, Sony may need to consider employing the same tactics that Microsoft is employing in the XB1X (more mature cooling, hovis method, etc).

HOWEVER....that being said, I think Sony and Microsoft would be wise in offering a 'core' console WITHOUT a disc drive. Who knows how much this would actually save, and perhaps costs would be offset by a larger HDD, but they may make this back on greater software margins since they're effectively locking in a digital only consumer.

 

[MiloHoffman]

PS5 @ $399 and that's a fact

 

[gatti-man]

$450+. Sony isn't going to come out with an X1X equivalent. They will want to set the mark for new generation. That's going to require either selling at a loss or $500

 

[Insane Metal]

Give me a decently powerful hardware for $499 in 2019/2020 and I'll be happy.

 

[Shin]

Question is, will we get 4 or 8 cores, both would blow current consoles out of the water.

8/16 because it falls in the performance category of AMD APU's, just like the ones in current gen consoles.

 

[Turrican3]

If Sony or Ms wanted a 60fps box, it would have more CPU cores and less gpu.

I have to assume this is referred to Pro and Scorpio only, right?

 

[Astral Dog]

Damn you Trump

 

[Musky_Cheese]

Sony $400

Nintendo no more than $400

Xbox I have no idea

 

[KageMaru]

That chart is apples to apples comparison between gens, so think of what's inside the Pro and X and a similarly customized Ryzen APU would be much faster. Raven Ridge will encompass lower-end to higher-end models though.

I'm sure it's apples to apples in terms of performance but not price.

 

[Zombie James]

Eh, there are always so many variables when it comes to tech pricing that it seems silly to predict how much things are going to cost in 2-3 years with any certainty. RAM fluctuates often, AMD/Intel is only now just starting to heat up again in the CPU space, Samsung just announced they're ramping up production of 64-layer NAND that's going to drop heat, power, and pricing down further. Not that I would expect a PS5 or Xbox Two to come with SSDs, but if the price gap between flash and hard drives finally reaches parity in the next few years then why not?

I don't mind speculation but I think drawing any conclusions at this point like the video suggests is silly. No, the XboneX being $499 doesn't mean the PS5 or whatever is going to cost the same or higher. It's just the best box MS could build at that price at this time, just like the PS4 was the best box Sony could build with the tech and budget they had in mind back in 2013. Noting more, nothing less.

 

[Rizific]

as long as MS keeps play anywhere around, they pretty much put a nail in the coffin for any of their future consoles for me. that puts more of my budget towards the ps5, i wouldnt mind payijng $400 or $500. but would that put the mid-gen refresh price at $550-$600? F that.

 

[Nictel]

I think for a part it also matters how well the XBX1X does, or in other words how viable a 499 console is. It could also be that they continue this model where the base model will be 399 and the Pro version 499