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Dragon Quest XI on track to hit Square Enix's unit expectations

Edge_Maverick noticed that the transcript of Square Enix's financial call came out, so we have some information.

If it hits the upper end will depend on the tail end sales on Nintendo 3DS.

Keep in mind this call happened on August 4th.

On July 29, we released ”DRAGON QUEST XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age," which has generated a great customer response and garnered praise for its contents. We have seen stronger sales of the PlayStation®4 version than the NINTENDO 3DS version, but given the installed base, we have high hopes for growth in sales of the NINTENDO 3DS version going forward as well.
Q: Do you look likely to reach your target for unit sales of ”DRAGON QUEST XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age?" Also, you say that you are seeing strong sales of the PlayStation®4 version, which has a high sales price. Does that mean we can expect sales to beat your plan?      

A: We believe that we can reach the lower end of our unit sales plan. Our goal is to reach the upper end of that plan, but we believe that that will depend on how sales of the NINTENDO 3DS version trend going forward.
Source: http://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/news/pdf/18q1outline.pdf
 

Vanillalite

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Apr 14, 2008
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It all just feels weird. I mean I guess you have to put out a number range for your home territory.

In terms of success for the title though how can you even really know for any media these days until it's gone world wide?
 

iceblade997

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Dec 10, 2014
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I hope it does hit its target, and that the target isn't a really big one. It seems to be doing well so far and still has yet to come to other territories so there should hopefully be a lot more sales (and time) to get to it.

Square Enix was unhappy with how well Tomb Raider (2013) did and that sold at least 3.4 million copies...
 

sense

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Looks like they are happy with PS4 version sales considering the higher price but are hoping for more from 3ds.
 

Pachinko

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They probably anticipated 1.5 million on PS4 and 3.5 million on 3DS and what's it sitting at now , about half that ? mostly because the 3DS version isn't doing as well as they expected right ?

There are more versions and localizations coming in the coming months too but I imagine they have their own goals. Switch version might only be gunning for 500K sold and as for the english release ? well that could be another 1-1.5 million sold outside of Japan for the PS4 version anyway.

The fact they keep stressing the 3DS though tells me they were anticipating quite a few more sold there.
 

GunBR

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Jul 15, 2013
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I think they probably would expecting to the DS version be closer to 2m at this point
But I can see the game selling near 4.5m in Japan, even SE should be happy with that (maybe)
 

Wagram

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Jul 11, 2013
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Incoming boy band Dragon Quest with a fractured story and poor DLC.

/s .....maybe
 

Ōkami

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They probably were backing on word of mouth taking 3DS through long time sales as they mostly focused on promoting the PS4 before launch, from what I could see at least, made sense as that version would sell some 80% of its total sales on launch week.

Problem is Splatoon 2 is taking the attention of the younger demographic that would've made those legs, and if its not that is the unobtainable Nintendo Switch, hardcore fans surely picked it up at launch, but the casual demographic is somewhat distracted.

Not that rare, but I've seen most discussions of the game died out online.

Shame because it is incredible, best JRPG I've played in over a decade, on another level than VIII or IX, hopefully the can get the Switch version before March to get as many sales as possible.
 

Shin

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Seem, they need 4.5+m this year.

Good luck.
It already shipped 3,000,000+ though and counting, plus WW release will be within their FY so it's possible.
It depends how well it keeps on selling in Japan and how the west responds to it, I'm kinda positive though.
 

120v

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they probably didn't factor in how aged 3DS would be at this point. you're not only releasing alongside a "premium" version but a new portable is blowing up on the scene
 

Shin

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AGITΩ;246240206 said:
Should've factored in that maybe some are just waiting on the Switch version.
Ah right there's also that, I keep forgetting that it's coming to Switch as well.
 

Ōkami

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It already shipped 3,000,000+ though and counting, plus WW release will be within their FY so it's possible.
It depends how well it keeps on selling in Japan and how the west responds to it, I'm kinda positive though.
I REALLY doubt that.
 

Aeana

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Jul 10, 2006
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Last week's Media Create had 3DS higher

01./01. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 307.714 / 1.456.601 (-73%)
02./02. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 200.798 / 1.151.113 (-79%)


We'll see where they stand tomorrow. They clearly expected the 3DS to greatly exceed the PS4, but I have a feeling PS4 is performing beyond expectations too.
 
Jul 28, 2014
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I have a feeling that Pokemon and Monster Hunter will help boost those numbers by default before the fiscal year ends.
 

Mediking

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&#332;kami;246240132 said:
They probably were backing on word of mouth taking 3DS through long time sales as they mostly focused on promoting the PS4 before launch, from what I could see at least, made sense as that version would sell some 80% of its total sales on launch week.

Problem is Splatoon 2 is taking the attention of the younger demographic that would've made those legs, and if its not that is the unobtainable Nintendo Switch, hardcore fans surely picked it up at launch, but the casual demographic is somewhat distracted.

Not that rare, but I've seen most discussions of the game died out online.

Shame because it is incredible, best JRPG I've played in over a decade, on another level than VIII or IX, hopefully the can get the Switch version before March to get as many sales as possible.
Wow. This is prolly whats happening.
 
Dec 13, 2013
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Last week's Media Create had 3DS higher

01./01. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 307.714 / 1.456.601 (-73%)
02./02. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 200.798 / 1.151.113 (-79%)


We'll see where they stand tomorrow. They clearly expected the 3DS to greatly exceed the PS4, but I have a feeling PS4 is performing beyond expectations too.
Of course 3DS version sales are higher.

PS4 is probably as expected or at least on the lower end of expectations, 3DS is definitely on the lower end.

Square probably not expected that so many gamer moved forward to Switch this early, they surely not expected Switch to take Japan by storm otherwise the Switch version had been released earlier.
 

Pepboy

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4 million should be the upper end here. Low end seems to be 3 million.
It already hit 3 million mark in first week, more or less. I think the ps4 did better than expected but 3ds sales were lower than they thought, with only 1.1m in first two days.
 

Alex_Mexico

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Last week's Media Create had 3DS higher

01./01. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 307.714 / 1.456.601 (-73%)
02./02. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 200.798 / 1.151.113 (-79%)


We'll see where they stand tomorrow. They clearly expected the 3DS to greatly exceed the PS4, but I have a feeling PS4 is performing beyond expectations too.
Don't forget the PS4 version is selling for a higher price so square is making more money per unit there.
 

Aeana

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Of course 3DS version sales are higher.

PS4 is probably as expected or at least on the lower end of expectations, 3DS is definitely on the lower end.

Square probably not expected that so many gamer moved forward to Switch this early, they surely not expected Switch to take Japan by storm otherwise the Switch version had been released earlier.
I was simply contextualizing this quote from the OP:

We have seen stronger sales of the PlayStation®4 version than the NINTENDO 3DS version
 

D.Lo

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Such a strange release. It gets called multiplatform, but on a tech level it's just two completely separate games with the same story and marketing.

Weird to consider them 'the same game'. And if you were a big fan you would really have to buy both surely.

Came out too late for the 3DS.
That too, would have done a lot better a year earlier.
 

The Wart

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Last week's Media Create had 3DS higher

01./01. [3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥5.980) - 307.714 / 1.456.601 (-73%)
02./02. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 200.798 / 1.151.113 (-79%)


We'll see where they stand tomorrow. They clearly expected the 3DS to greatly exceed the PS4, but I have a feeling PS4 is performing beyond expectations too.
Huh, confusing. Does Media Create count digital? Could that push PS4 past 3DS? Or did "stronger" mean "relative to expectations" rather than absolute number sold?
 

D.Lo

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I thought dqxi was doing crazy good numbers. Now the story is it's a disappointment?
It's down on the last couple of main series entries, but still 'pretty good considering the market' is the standard way of looking at it. PS4 version in particular has broken out of expectations and become the first legitimate (aka not via bargain bin prices) million seller on the platform.

But PS4 is a niche, 3DS has one foot out the door already, and Switch and Splatoon have swallowed Japan hype-wise in the meantime. And they announced but haven't released a Switch version which some people might be waiting for, since it's clearly going to be Japan's preferred platform going forward.

Huh, confusing. Does Media Create count digital? Could that push PS4 past 3DS? Or did "stronger" mean "relative to expectations" rather than absolute number sold?
It almost certainly means relative to expectations. Only a crazy person would have thought the PS4 version would outsell the 3DS version LTD.
 

PumpkinSpice

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Seems like they were hoping to get normal sales for a Dragon Quest mainline just with the 3DS version plus extra for the PS4 version. Instead it's just normal sales split across 2 platforms.
 

KingBroly

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Came out too late on 3DS, IMO. If it came out...a year ago on 3DS, exclusively, it probably could've eclipsed these numbers. But as is, because they split it up into multiple versions, they cut off sales potential. They're not making up whatever sales losses here from an overseas release if they're talking like this, either.

It coming out around the time Splatoon 2 did also killed a lot of its' hype, IMO. I don't see many people talking about DQXI. Maybe a lot of people want it on Switch? I think it could do a fair amount of sales there, assuming it's not rushed. It also needs to be day-and-date with other versions in the West, or they're honestly better off not doing it at all.
 

Helacious

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Aug 23, 2013
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square expectations continue to be crazy
The expectations seems pretty sane actually, the ps4 and 3ds sales are very close to each other while the 3ds install base is multiple times higher AND ps4 games has a history of underselling in japan. PS4 version is selling over expectations and 3DS under. Maybe a case of cannibalization.
 
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I don't know if it came out too late for the 3DS but it came out at a bad time. Splatoon 2 just came out, there's no new hardware to push it in Japan like the 2DS XL is keeping units alive here, and Nintendo's recent 3DS output isn't getting anyone excited about the system.

I think it also might be a mismatch in target audiences. The 3DS version is targeting more of the nostalgic fans, but it seems like those people would be more likely to be interested in a console version. I think Square just assumed that the nostalgic fans and the casual fans were mostly a single-circle venn diagram, but there's enough difference that it could easily cause a misread of the audience.

Announcing but not showing the Switch version early on was also a mistake. I imagine Nintendo twisted their arm to announce it when they did, but if you're a handheld gamer who doesn't own a console but know DQXI is coming out on a hybrid down the line, you might be inclined to wait, especially if you just bought a Switch for Splatoon, or are unable to find it anywhere and are discouraged in general.

That said, it's not doing badly, and I can see why Square had such lofty expectations, they just aren't bearing out.
 
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Square just need to gone ahead and admit it. They thought everybody was gonna double dip lol. Thats why they made a damn special edition with games from 2 different consoles.
 

gundamkyoukai

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Well it's at there lower end and that was 2 weeks ago .
So it most likely going to end mid way for them with the 3DS version doing lower than they thought .
Still with switch version to come it should end up very good after all said and done.
 

KtSlime

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Square just need to gone ahead and admit it. They thought everybody was gonna double dip lol. Thats why they made a damn special edition with games from 2 different consoles.
I don't think that is true. Most likely PS4 was planned first, then 3DS after because after thinking about it they realized there was no way to sell 4+ million copies on PS4 alone. Double dipping is just a perk, not the goal.
 

NinjaCoachZ

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The game was also soft-delayed a couple times. 2016 -> "between May 2016 and May 2017" -> July 2017. I don't think the development plan ever initially considered that the Switch would be as established or as taken off as it had by the time the game was done. I'm sure SE are probably hard at work getting it out for Japan by maybe winter. And it should definitely be ready for the international launch (obviously that's not likely to be in this fiscal year though).
 
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Square just need to gone ahead and admit it. They thought everybody was gonna double dip lol. Thats why they made a damn special edition with games from 2 different consoles.
I honestly would not doubt this at all.

The main DQ11 commercial here in Japan is a lady wondering which version to get ending with her saying `oh right, I`ll just get the double pack!`

Anyway was going to pick up the 3DS verison maybe next week since I need the furiganas lol.