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Sales-Age Famitsu sales week 13: Monster Hunter Rise launch week

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
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I know the Sony side is overwhelmingly digital, but that still doesn't explain this.

Sales of games on PS5 have been less than minimal. I don't buy that it's because they've been buying digital. Not to this extent. There has to be another reason..
 

Woopah

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Jesus Christ this is like arguing with a gibbon. OK. My argument is that, and I quote, "Switch software sales are proportionally weak compared to the number of consoles sold worldwide. Whether this applies in Japan as well I don't think we have the data to tell, but MHR's numbers aren't really very encouraging at the moment."

MHR supports my argument because its software sales in Japan (in dollars/yen AND in units sold) are proportionally lower than MHW sales in Japan on PS4 given the Switch's larger install base.

Rise does have to sell double World in Japan (in dollars/yen) for my argument, that Switch has proportionally lower software sales than PlayStation, to be disproven.

Fundamentally, a lot of the Switch's recent success is illusory. Lots of people buy it as a second console and don't wind up using it as much as their primary console. This means they spend less money on games for it.

I've managed to have this conversation without insulting you. I expect you to do the same.

Will Switch have lower proportional sales that PS4 in the end? Yes that is certainly a possibility and a lot of that will depend on future third party support. But that doesn't make Switch software sales 'a paper tiger' and it doesn't make its success 'illusory'. PS4 has had very good third party support and there's plenty of successful systems that won't have the same tie ratio.

And I'll show you why tie ratio doesn't work when comparing individual games.

Wii U sold about 3.3 million units and Splatoon sold 1.7 million copies in Japan. By the time Splatoon 3 comes out Switch will have around 7x the userbase of the Wii U. Does that mean Splatoon 3 should be selling 11.9 million copies? Of course not.
 
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Dec 2, 2018
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Take a look at these numbers

Q1(January-March) 2021 result of Japanese video game software

Total software sales of top 50 games
TOTAL: 6.295.625
NSW TOTAL: 6.189.615 (98.31%)
PS4 TOTAL: 106.010 (1.69%)
PS5 TOTAL: 0(0%)
XSX/S TOTAL: 0(0%)
This is a meaningless statistic. this is one country, only the top 50 games, and knowing you probably physical only.

I posted a chart of the meaningful statistic above, which is that gamers spent two and a half times as much on PlayStation as they did on Switch last year.
But that doesn't make Switch software sales 'a paper tiger' and it doesn't make its success 'illusory'. PS4 has had very good third party support and there's plenty of successful systems that won't have the same tie ratio.
Bodom posts carefully curated Switch boosterism three times a week that shows the console dominating the software charts, when in reality its software sales are much, much less than PlayStation's. So yes, in this context it's accurate to call the Switch's software performance a paper tiger: it's much less impressive in reality than it is in these misleading snapshots of Japanese physical sales.
And I'll show you why tie ratio doesn't work when comparing individual games.

Wii U sold about 3.3 million units and Splatoon sold 1.7 million copies in Japan. By the time Splatoon 3 comes out Switch will have around 7x the userbase of the Wii U. Does that mean Splatoon 3 should be selling 11.9 million copies? Of course not.
Now what if Splatoon 3 sold exactly the same on Switch as on Wii U, in spite of the larger install base? Wouldn't that be a sign that much of the Switch's success is illusory?
 
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silpheed-mcd

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ComG! Gosen, april 02


Yodobashi, april 02


Other Yodobashi




 
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Shadowstar39

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I expected much more. Just shows how impressive the ps4 sales were. And to think all the sales age geniuses used to say 500k tops. What do they think PlayStation is the Wii U or something? Sony can actually pull off a a traditional home console these days.
Been a Sony fan since the ps1. I want a ps5 but I'm skeptical about them making good games especially in Japan where they are dismantling studios, pissimg off 3rd party devs and censoring content... All to cater to San Fran culture. Nintendo is taking all their 3rd /2nd party jrpg devs. No more exclusive disgaea, Persona, atelier, falcom games etc....

Let me know when good games besides demons souls come to ps5 (which is a great game but a remake).

Also anyone who hasn't picked up mh rise.. You are missing out. Amazing mh game.
 

Woopah

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Bodom posts carefully curated Switch boosterism three times a week that shows the console dominating the software charts, when in reality its software sales are much, much less than PlayStation's. So yes, in this context it's accurate to call the Switch's software performance a paper tiger: it's much less impressive in reality than it is in these misleading snapshots of Japanese physical sales.
Those charts are put together by professional tracking companies, they aren't curated or put together by Bodomism. The Japan charts are missing some Switch digital sales too but they already give us enough data to know Switch's software performance is strong.
Now what if Splatoon 3 sold exactly the same on Switch as on Wii U, in spite of the larger install base? Wouldn't that be a sign that much of the Switch's success is illusory?

Do you think the lifetime Japan sales of Rise will be the same as World, or will they be more? How much do you expect Rise to sell lifetime (or by the time the expansion comes out) in Japan?

Edit: Another way to look at it is this. At the very height of its popularity in Japan Monster Hunter sold 4.8 million with Monster Hunter Freedom 3 on PSP [All Versions]. If you expect Rise to double the total (physical and digital) sales of World, then you expect Rise to do 6 million (25% more than the best selling game in Japan). Its not impossible for Rise to do that I don't think that's what the game needs to do to be successful.
 
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Lionel Richie

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Fundamentally, a lot of the Switch's recent success is illusory. Lots of people buy it as a second console and don't wind up using it as much as their primary console. This means they spend less money on games for it.

You base that on absolutely fucking nothing but your own imagination. Stop making shit up. If you want to argue that Sony makes better games than Nintendo, do it. I do agree that Goodbye Volcano High looks very good and the recent hiring spree by Japan Studio is very encouraging. If you want to say they're better overall, knock yourself out. Now stop distorting reality. The Switch's success isn't recent. It isn't illusory whatever the fuck that means. There is no way, NO ANGLE to look at this and say that Sony is ahead of Nintendo from a sheer capitalist perspective. Nintendo sells more consoles. Their published games sell better. They make more money on videogames than Sony. Fucking deal with it.

Again, that's from a business standpoint. If you want to argue that Sony is better from a creativity standpoint, go nuts. Just stop making shit up because it's fucking annoying.
 
Dec 2, 2018
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You base that on absolutely fucking nothing but your own imagination. Stop making shit up. If you want to argue that Sony makes better games than Nintendo, do it. I do agree that Goodbye Volcano High looks very good and the recent hiring spree by Japan Studio is very encouraging. If you want to say they're better overall, knock yourself out. Now stop distorting reality. The Switch's success isn't recent. It isn't illusory whatever the fuck that means. There is no way, NO ANGLE to look at this and say that Sony is ahead of Nintendo from a sheer capitalist perspective. Nintendo sells more consoles. Their published games sell better. They make more money on videogames than Sony. Fucking deal with it.

Again, that's from a business standpoint. If you want to argue that Sony is better from a creativity standpoint, go nuts. Just stop making shit up because it's fucking annoying.
I'm basing that on literal corporate financial reports dawg. Sony makes more money on videogames than Nintendo - its lower profits are because it also spends much more on R&D, which is a good thing.
 
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Woopah

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You base that on absolutely fucking nothing but your own imagination. Stop making shit up. If you want to argue that Sony makes better games than Nintendo, do it. I do agree that Goodbye Volcano High looks very good and the recent hiring spree by Japan Studio is very encouraging. If you want to say they're better overall, knock yourself out. Now stop distorting reality. The Switch's success isn't recent. It isn't illusory whatever the fuck that means. There is no way, NO ANGLE to look at this and say that Sony is ahead of Nintendo from a sheer capitalist perspective. Nintendo sells more consoles. Their published games sell better. They make more money on videogames than Sony. Fucking deal with it.

Again, that's from a business standpoint. If you want to argue that Sony is better from a creativity standpoint, go nuts. Just stop making shit up because it's fucking annoying.
Its not quite as clear cut as that. There are some areas/geographies where Nintendo does better (Hardware sales, first party sales, Asia) and some where Sony does better (Third party software sales, subscriptions, Europe).

We can discuss sales without making turning it into a sport.
 

Lionel Richie

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Jun 22, 2014
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I'm basing that on literal corporate financial reports dawg. Sony makes more money on videogames than Nintendo - its lower profits are because it also spends much more on R&D, which is a good thing.

Right, there's always something, isn't there? Always some small thing you can cling on. B-b-b-ut R&D!!! You do you bro, I'm done.

Its not quite as clear cut as that. There are some areas/geographies where Nintendo does better (Hardware sales, first party sales, Asia) and some where Sony does better (Third party software sales, subscriptions, Europe).

We can discuss sales without making turning it into a sport.

I'm sorry, but the "Switch recent success is illusionary" is a bad way to start a conversation. I'm not sure how third party software benefits them and they make more money on subs because there is still more PS4 users than Switch users and the subscription is more expensive.
 

Woopah

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I'm sorry, but the "Switch recent success is illusionary" is a bad way to start a conversation. I'm not sure how third party software benefits them and they make more money on subs because there is still more PS4 users than Switch users and the subscription is more expensive.
I agree that "Switch recent success is illusionary" is nonsense, I just don't think that "I do agree that Goodbye Volcano High looks very good and the recent hiring spree by Japan Studio is very encouraging" does anything to raise the level of conversation.
 

silpheed-mcd

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NSW: million seller family in Japan (physical)


[NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 6,710,861
[NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 4,218,939
[NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 4,014,376 + Expansion Pass – 196,271 = 4,210,647
[NSW] Splatoon 2 (Bundle Version Included) (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 3,825,969
[NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 3,751,594
[NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 2,479,573
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo, 10/27/17) – 2,217,805
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! (Konami, 11/19/20) – 2,072,296
[NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 1,872,739

[NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 1,850,769
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 1,799,930
[NSW] Pokemon Let's Go! (The Pokemon Company, 11/16/18) - 1,767,652
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom, 03/26/21) - 1,302,132
[NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 1,079,655
[NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo, 01/11/19) – 1,047,483


15 million seller

10 nintendo games + 2 pokemon company games + 3 third party


8 games over 2 million
5 games over 3 million
3 games over 4 million
1 game over 6 million
 

Kerotan

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Oct 31, 2018
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Been a Sony fan since the ps1. I want a ps5 but I'm skeptical about them making good games especially in Japan where they are dismantling studios, pissimg off 3rd party devs and censoring content... All to cater to San Fran culture. Nintendo is taking all their 3rd /2nd party jrpg devs. No more exclusive disgaea, Persona, atelier, falcom games etc....

Let me know when good games besides demons souls come to ps5 (which is a great game but a remake).

Also anyone who hasn't picked up mh rise.. You are missing out. Amazing mh game.
They are dismantling Japan Studio but growing Team Asobi.
 
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Shaqazooloo

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I agree that "Switch recent success is illusionary" is nonsense, I just don't think that "I do agree that Goodbye Volcano High looks very good and the recent hiring spree by Japan Studio is very encouraging" does anything to raise the level of conversation.
You base that on absolutely fucking nothing but your own imagination. Stop making shit up. If you want to argue that Sony makes better games than Nintendo, do it. I do agree that Goodbye Volcano High looks very good and the recent hiring spree by Japan Studio is very encouraging. If you want to say they're better overall, knock yourself out. Now stop distorting reality. The Switch's success isn't recent. It isn't illusory whatever the fuck that means. There is no way, NO ANGLE to look at this and say that Sony is ahead of Nintendo from a sheer capitalist perspective. Nintendo sells more consoles. Their published games sell better. They make more money on videogames than Sony. Fucking deal with it.

Again, that's from a business standpoint. If you want to argue that Sony is better from a creativity standpoint, go nuts. Just stop making shit up because it's fucking annoying.
I don't think you two should bother with him, he's the same guy that in the previous thread claimed that Switch Lite was selling on par with OG Switch based off of one week where OG Switch was having stock issues and refused to take the L despite being shown that his claim was false. He'll latch on to anything to downplay the Switch, move goalposts and double down.

Look at how he completely ignores the fact that MHR sold out and couldn't sell more than MHW because of it, yet he's still trying to use that as argument for Switch software sales being weak.

He's basically a troll at this point.
 
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Bodomism

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Sony R&D is probably the most pathetic excuses of Playstation making lower profit than Nintendo Switch when Most of PS revenue were from MTX/DLC.
 

Bodomism

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A big reminder

Nintendo Switch is going to generate more profits than PS1, PS2, PS3, PSP, PSV, PS4, and PS5 combined profits.
 

Same ol G

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I see the troll got a warning.
Come on guys ignore him he's derailing the whole thread.
As a Monster hunter fan be glad so many people enjoy these games and hope for more so we can create a bigger community and help each other becoming better hunters.
 

Woopah

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I don't think you two should bother with him, he's the same guy that in the previous thread claimed that Switch Lite was selling on par with OG Switch based off of one week where OG Switch was having stock issues and refused to take the L despite being shown that his claim was false. He'll latch on to anything to downplay the Switch, move goalposts and double down.

Look at how he completely ignores the fact that MHR sold out and couldn't sell more than MHW because of it, yet he's still trying to use that as argument for Switch software sales being weak.

He's basically a troll at this point.
You're right, apologies for engaging the console warrior.

Back on topic, it will be interesting to see the legs on Rise and if Capcom are able to ship enough stock. I'd expect their to be some cross-promotion with MHS2 in summer and with the Switch revision in the holiday period, so there are things coming in 2021 that could boost sales.
 

Same ol G

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You're right, apologies for engaging the console warrior.

Back on topic, it will be interesting to see the legs on Rise and if Capcom are able to ship enough stock. I'd expect their to be some cross-promotion with MHS2 in summer and with the Switch revision in the holiday period, so there are things coming in 2021 that could boost sales.
I already can't wait for the G rank expansion that's gonna boost sales a lot and give us a lot of new monsters to hunt down.
 
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vaibhavpisal

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A big reminder

Nintendo Switch is going to generate more profits than PS1, PS2, PS3, PSP, PSV, PS4, and PS5 combined profits.

Please dont do this. I know for a fact you are looking at wrong profits, that does not generate cash for company but is indicative of company health compared to previous years.

People will start reading these technical terms and we will have a armchair cfo's influx in gaf to defend ps.

Let it outsell ps2 first.
 

Woopah

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I already can't wait for the G rank expansion that's gonna boost sales a lot and give us a lot of new monsters to hunt down.
I think that's coming in 2023. If they do a version that includes both the original game and the G DLC then yes that will push legs a lot.

I can see Rise being one of those games that stays in the top 30 for months if not longer.
 
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noshten

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On the topic of Miitopia it launched on the 3DS in 2016 with just 28.231 and ended up at 240.340 lifetime,
Still early days but I think Nintendo have been pushing it a lot more compared to the 3DS game; I can see it being a low key hit for them - something like 400K lifetime.

I do wonder what will happen with Tomodachi Life, the 3DS game sold like 1.7 million in Japan and over 6 million world wide, it's one of the high profile sequels I'm expecting in the next 1-2 years to launch on the Switch.
 
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silpheed-mcd

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Famitsu




Yodobashi, adverts




Yodobashi, april 03, more lines for monster hunter rise (big restocks since april 02), good restocks for ps5 too.


Restocks today for switch red/blue and grey but....


....very fastly...
 
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noshten

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Since the PS5 launch, Third Parties have sold well over 5 million on the Switch in Japan; meanwhile the best selling third party game on the PS4/PS5 is Cyberpunk 2077 and it managed just over 100K. It's a similar situation in other Asian markets which are always overlooked when discussing sales, we already know that the Top 5 in Taiwan/South Korea in the past 12 months have barely featured PS4 games.
The situation in the West is more competitive but in Japan and East Asia, it does seem that Switch software sales are magnitudes greater than the PlayStation ecosystem.
In 2021 the best selling PS4/PS5 game according to Famitsu in Japan is Little Nightmares 2 with around 25K sales

As the majority of both AA & AAA Japanese third party titles make 80% of their sales in Japan & Asia.. the market conditions there are certainly shaping future decisions. You cannot overlook the latest news like Everybody's Golf going mobile, Type-Moon launching a Tsukihime Remake as a multiplat; while Konami opts for Baseball Spirits to be an exclusive on the Switch after historically doing well on the PS3/PS4/PSV, Disgaea 6 being exclusive to the Switch outside of Japan, recent VN games like The Quintessential Quintuplets selling x2/x3 on the Switch compared to the PS4 etc.
These types of things show the trend, that will accelerate, Nintendo was only able to make the Switch so huge in Japan thanks to it's own efforts - while Sony's 1st Party studios have basically nothing to offer to move the needle

Marketing and retail space is key for publishers in their home country, we all see the pictures that silpheed-mcd silpheed-mcd posts in these threads; every single video game store is basically a huge Nintendo promotion with PlayStation getting less and less space.. this has long term implications about how difficult it would be for Sony to re-establish its previous position and maintain relationships with their partners.
In the past few months several high profile people from Sony Japan were let go, with these people Sony is also losing their relationships within the local market. Everything is adding towards a very drastic decline in the region, that I've been outlining since last summer.

I'm not saying this to provoke anyone in this thread, it's just the current market reality in Japan and likely South Korea & Taiwan. This doesn't diminish the success PS5 currently has in the rest of the World , but that success will be less aligned with the majority of future Japanese third party games. I understand Sony's position because they are in far greater competition by Microsoft in the West and they've got to protect their lucrative AAA market; where microtransactions and subscriptions are key parts of their growth strategy. But in Japan the market is different, FIFA never managed more than 500K, GTAV isn't among the Top 20 best selling games of all time, COD isn't doing millions.
Sony does have a few other successful ways to remain relevant in Japan, but their video game hardware philosophy at the moment is not one of them. They are heavily investing in Anime and Fate is their most relevant IP in Japan, generating billions via gatcha and merchandise. The current hardware & software philosophy simply seems to clash with what Japan finds popular; as we can see in the West the PS5 launch games are having great legs but in Japan that's not the case; the first major PS5 title Resident Evil:Village is also on the PS4.. so from a PS5 software perspective we might be half an year into the life of the system without a game surpassing 100K.
 
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Woopah

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Since the PS5 launch, Third Parties have sold well over 5 million on the Switch in Japan; meanwhile the best selling third party game on the PS4/PS5 is Cyberpunk 2077 and it managed just over 100K. It's a similar situation in other Asian markets which are always overlooked when discussing sales, we already know that the Top 5 in Taiwan/South Korea in the past 12 months have barely featured PS4 games.
The situation in the West is more competitive but in Japan and East Asia, it does seem that Switch software sales are magnitudes greater than the PlayStation ecosystem.
In 2021 the best selling PS4/PS5 game according to Famitsu in Japan is Little Nightmares 2 with around 25K sales

As the majority of both AA & AAA Japanese third party titles make 80% of their sales in Japan & Asia.. the market conditions there are certainly shaping future decisions. You cannot overlook the latest news like Everybody's Golf going mobile, Type-Moon launching a Tsukihime Remake as a multiplat; while Konami opts for Baseball Spirits to be an exclusive on the Switch after historically doing well on the PS3/PS4/PSV, Disgaea 6 being exclusive to the Switch outside of Japan, recent VN games like The Quintessential Quintuplets selling x2/x3 on the Switch compared to the PS4 etc.
These types of things show the trend, that will accelerate, Nintendo was only able to make the Switch so huge in Japan thanks to it's own efforts - while Sony's 1st Party studios have basically nothing to offer to move the needle

Marketing and retail space is key for publishers in their home country, we all see the pictures that silpheed-mcd silpheed-mcd posts in these threads; every single video game store is basically a huge Nintendo promotion with PlayStation getting less and less space.. this has long term implications about how difficult it would be for Sony to re-establish its previous position and maintain relationships with their partners.
In the past few months several high profile people from Sony Japan were let go, with these people Sony is also losing their relationships within the local market. Everything is adding towards a very drastic decline in the region, that I've been outlining since last summer.

I'm not saying this to provoke anyone in this thread, it's just the current market reality in Japan and likely South Korea & Taiwan. This doesn't diminish the success PS5 currently has in the rest of the World , but that success will be less aligned with the majority of future Japanese third party games. I understand Sony's position because they are in far greater competition by Microsoft in the West and they've got to protect their lucrative AAA market; where microtransactions and subscriptions are key parts of their growth strategy. But in Japan the market is different, FIFA never managed more than 500K, GTAV isn't among the Top 20 best selling games of all time, COD isn't doing millions.
Sony does have a few other successful ways to remain relevant in Japan, but their video game hardware philosophy at the moment is not one of them. They are heavily investing in Anime and Fate is their most relevant IP in Japan, generating billions via gatcha and merchandise. The current hardware & software philosophy simply seems to clash with what Japan finds popular; as we can see in the West the PS5 launch games are having great legs but in Japan that's not the case; the first major PS5 title Resident Evil:Village is also on the PS4.. so from a PS5 software perspective we might be half an year into the life of the system without a game surpassing 100K.
I think we also need to keep in mind that that that these last few months are a snapshot in which third party Switch support is particularly strong and PlayStation third party support particularly weak.

I'd expect PS5 to get at least one medium or big release per quarter usually, and I'd expect massive Switch third party games to not usually be so close together as Momotoro and Rise have been.
 

noshten

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I think we also need to keep in mind that that that these last few months are a snapshot in which third party Switch support is particularly strong and PlayStation third party support particularly weak.

I'd expect PS5 to get at least one medium or big release per quarter usually, and I'd expect massive Switch third party games to not usually be so close together as Momotoro and Rise have been.

Six months is a long time, and we know what to expect in the next few months of the PS4/PS5 that would constituted a medium releases Nier Replicant, Resident Evil: Village, FFVII Remake, GTA V, Scarlet Nexus & Tales of Arise. As far as a big release for Japan, it's very unexpected for FFXVI, MHW2 or DQXII to be launching in 2021 exclusively on the PS5, so there is a lack of big release for certain as of right now.


Top 5 Third Party Titles PS3(Nov 2006 - Apr 2007)
  1. Dynasty Warriors: Gundam (Mar 2007) - 330.995
  2. Ridge Racer 7 (Nov 2006) - 155.151
  3. Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (Nov 2006) - 146.199
  4. Virtua Fighter 5 (Feb 2007) - 97.321
  5. Mahjong Fight Club (Nov 2006) - 84.543
Top 5 Third Party Titles PS4(Feb 2014 - July 2014)
  1. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (Mar 2014) - 151.860
  2. Yakuza: Ishin! (Feb 2014) - 129.536
  3. Battlefield 4 (Feb 2014) - 114.163
  4. Watch Dogs (Jun 2014) - 95.490
  5. Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn (Apr 2014) - 79.009
Top 5 Third Party Titles Wii(Dec 2006 - May 2007)
  1. Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition (May 2007) - 249.381
  2. Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 (Jan 2007) - 165.969
  3. One Piece: Unlimited Adventure (April 2007) - 110.802
  4. Naruto Shippuden: Gekitou Ninja Taisen! (Feb 2007) - 109.971
  5. Ennichi no Tatsujin (Dec 2007) - 109.877
Top 5 Third Party Titles Wii U(Dec 2012 - May 2013)
  1. Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Dec 2012) - 234,246
  2. Dragon Quest X (Mar 2013) - 124.553
  3. ZombiU (Dec 2012) - 43.290
  4. Warriors Orochi 3: Hyper (Dec 2012) - 42.281
  5. Tank! Tank! Tank! (Feb 2013) - 40.243
Top Third Party Titles PS5(Nov 2020 - May 2021)
  1. Resident Evil: Village (May 2021) - ?
  2. Godfall (Nov 2020) - 5.352
  3. Assassin's Creed: Valhalla (Nov 2020) - 4.227
  4. Yakuza: Like a Dragon (Mar 2021) - 2.861

The picture is pretty clear for the first six months, lets hope things can be turned around after May with a streak of releases but I'm not an optimist for the near term fortunes of the PS5
 
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Woopah

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Six months is a long time, and we know what to expect in the next few months of the PS4/PS5 that would constituted a medium releases Nier Replicant, Resident Evil: Village, FFVII Remake, GTA V, Scarlet Nexus & Tales of Arise. As far as a big release for Japan, it's very unexpected for FFXVI, MHW2 or DQXII to be launching in 2021 exclusively on the PS5, so there is a lack of big release for certain as of right now.


Top 5 Third Party Titles PS3(Nov 2006 - Apr 2007)
  1. Dynasty Warriors: Gundam (Mar 2007) - 330.995
  2. Ridge Racer 7 (Nov 2006) - 155.151
  3. Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (Nov 2006) - 146.199
  4. Virtua Fighter 5 (Feb 2007) - 97.321
  5. Mahjong Fight Club (Nov 2006) - 84.543
Top 5 Third Party Titles PS4(Feb 2014 - July 2014)
  1. Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes (Mar 2014) - 151.860
  2. Yakuza: Ishin! (Feb 2014) - 129.536
  3. Battlefield 4 (Feb 2014) - 114.163
  4. Watch Dogs (Jun 2014) - 95.490
  5. Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn (Apr 2014) - 79.009
Top 5 Third Party Titles Wii(Dec 2006 - May 2007)
  1. Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition (May 2007) - 249.381
  2. Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 (Jan 2007) - 165.969
  3. One Piece: Unlimited Adventure (April 2007) - 110.802
  4. Naruto Shippuden: Gekitou Ninja Taisen! (Feb 2007) - 109.971
  5. Ennichi no Tatsujin (Dec 2007) - 109.877
Top 5 Third Party Titles Wii U(Dec 2012 - May 2013)
  1. Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Dec 2012) - 234,246
  2. Dragon Quest X (Mar 2013) - 124.553
  3. ZombiU (Dec 2012) - 43.290
  4. Warriors Orochi 3: Hyper (Dec 2012) - 42.281
  5. Tank! Tank! Tank! (Feb 2013) - 40.243
Top Third Party Titles PS5(Nov 2020 - May 2021)
  1. Resident Evil: Village (May 2021) - ?
  2. Godfall (Nov 2020) - 5.352
  3. Assassin's Creed: Valhalla (Nov 2020) - 4.227
  4. Yakuza: Like a Dragon (Mar 2021) - 2.861

The picture is pretty clear for the first six months, lets hope things can be turned around after May with a streak of releases but I'm not an optimist for the near term fortunes of the PS5
I do expect things to get better. Right now there's a lot of medium titles hitting PS4 but not PS5, and by 2023 I expect that to be the opposite (except the ones that go Switch only). Plus Capcom and SE will be putting their AAA games on PS5 by then so that will help a lot, its just taking some time for them to make that transition.
 
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silpheed-mcd

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Rakuten Hardware Orders, march 29 - april 04

01/03 NSW Red/blue
02/02 PS5
03/07 NSW Lite grey
04/01 NSW Lite turquoise
05/04 NSW Lite coral
06/06 NSW grey
07/08 PS5 digital
08/05 NSW Lite yellow
 

Bodomism

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Woopah

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Over 5 million units for Monster Hunter Rise, looks like it's around 2.5M units in Japan according to Gibson and needed only 700K to beat MHW numbers.
Hopefully this bodes well for its strong legs. I suspect we'll get an update on sales numbers at Capcom's next investor briefing.
 

noshten

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Oct 20, 2014
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So with over 2.5 million sales of Monster Hunter Rise, this week we will get a rough idea about it's digital sales on the Switch during it's second week.

Launch - >2 million shipped + digital / 1.3 million Famitsu
Week 2 - >2.5 million shipped + digital / ?

Based on launch figures we can summarize that digital made up around 35% of sales; if we were to apply the same split for Week 2 than we should see a second week shipment of 325K, second week for World in Japan was 223K according to Famitsu. Rise's legs much like other evergreen titles on the Switch will be much stronger than World's in Japan.

Monster Hunter World Legs
  1. Famitsu Sales: Week 4, 2018 (Jan 22 - Jan 28) - 1.350.412 / NEW (93%)
  2. Famitsu Sales: Week 5, 2018 (Jan 29 - Feb 04) - 223.274 (-83%)
  3. Famitsu Sales: Week 6, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11) - 114.740 (-49%)
  4. Famitsu Sales: Week 7, 2018 (Feb 12 - Feb 18) - 85.762 (-25%)
  5. Famitsu Sales: Week 8, 2018 (Feb 19 - Feb 25) - 54.915 (-36%)
  6. Famitsu Sales: Week 9, 2018 (Feb 26 - Mar 04) - 38.504 (-30%)
  7. Famitsu Sales: Week 10, 2018 (Mar 05 - Mar 11) - 24.351 (-37%)
  8. Famitsu Sales: Week 11, 2018 (Mar 12 - Mar 18) - 14.610 (-40%)
  9. Famitsu Sales: Week 12, 2018 (Mar 19 - Mar 25) - 10.924 (-25%)
  10. Famitsu Sales: Week 13, 2018 (Mar 26 - Apr 01) - 7.480 (-32%)
  11. Famitsu Sales: Week 14, 2018 (Apr 02 - Apr 08) - 4.359 (-42%)
LAUNCH TOTAL: 1.350.412
POST LAUNCH 10 WEEKS: 578.919
FAMITSU TOTAL 2018: 1.949.592

For Rise, by Week 24 we would likely be looking at around 2.5 million lifetime sales and a 500K lead over World physical only. With additional content, the game will continue to push hardware during Obon & December, last year New Horizon sold 624K in Q4 alone, so end of year my expectations for Rise physical in Japan is 3 million as the minimum and 3.75 million being the maximum.
With the positive WoM and additional content, it's very easy to see how Rise is likely to mirror other evergreens, so by end of Q2 it could very well be at Q1 - 1.3M, Q2 - 1.2M heading into Q3 where we might get a Pro launch in Japan and Rise is pretty much assured to benefit from this going into the holidays. We just saw Momotaro hit 800K physical in it's second quarter, a few months ago Konami had said it surpassed 2.5M with digital but on Famitsu it only now is surpassing 2M.

My personal prediction for Q2 Rise performance is below, basically no drop Q1 to Q2 and 31% digital share :

Week 13: 1300K / 700K DIGITAL
Week 14: 300K (-76%) / 200K DIGITAL
Week 15: 165K (-45%) / 40K DIGITAL
Week 16: 130K (-22%) / 30K DIGITAL
Week 17: 100K (-24%) / 25K DIGITAL
Week 18: 125K (+25%) / 30K DIGITAL (Golden Week)
Week 19 - 26: 385K (55K on average per week) / 105K (15K on average per week)
TOTAL: 3.6M / 31% DIGITAL

I expect at the H2 Report in July/August - Capcom will provide details on MHR surpassing 3.6 million in Japan, while WW it would be anywhere between 6.5-7 million. Beginning of the year I predicted it would be the fastest selling third party exclusive on the Switch, prior Monster Hunters on the 3DS or PSP were quickly replaced by their ultimate versions, that won't be the case with Rise. Capcom will likely support it for at least 2 years - so lifetime sales in Japan could very well hit 6 million.
It must be an exciting time for them, hitting heights like this with a Rise Expansions, Stories 2, Ace Attorney and Resident Evil all hitting the Switch in the next 1-2 years. It's light and day for them in Japan after they were unable to sell more than 400K physical copies of their games last year.
Also Monster Hunter is huge in Asia and we should see how long it stays in the Top 5 of South Korea/Taiwan
 
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Meesh

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What are you talking about. It just came out. The other games mostly have lower sales. 1.3 mil for 1 region is a lot. The other games with a ton of lifetime sales have been out for years.
So quick with the doom eh? Lol
Nah, I think it'll do just fine myself.
MH has always had legs like Tina Turner.
(I agree with you)
 
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silpheed-mcd

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Oct 30, 2016
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January 2021 (4 to 31):
NSW OG: 451.698
NSW Lite: 111.570

February 2021 (1 to 28)
NSW OG: 254.889
NSW Lite: 95.558

March 2021 (1 to 28)
NSW OG: 338.811
NSW Lite: 180.327

January 4 to march 28, 2021:
NSW OG: 1.045.398
NSW Lite: 387.455

September 16 - 22, 2019 (Lite launch september 20) to March 22 - 28, 2021
NSW OG: 6.586.406
NSW Lite: 3.526.983
 
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