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[Rhindle]

I would posit that the graph shown includes the data you're asking for. A graph can be just a pretty picture, but to me this graph encapsulates a lot of information -- you just need to view it as an elaborate table of data.

To be more precise, the curves given on my tie ratio graph represent three variables, not two. Each curve is parameterized by the time-equidistant data points, given by the months Sept - Feb. That, to me, is what made it a very interesting graph (other than just an interesting one).

In mathematical terms (think back to first semester calculus), the curves are given by I = x(t) and T = y(t) where I = installed base, T = tie ratio, and t = time (in months). Then:

dI
--  = x'(t) = change in installed base per unit time
dt

dT
--  = y'(t) = change in tie ratio per unit time  (what you asked for)
dt

and

dT       dy/dt
--   = -------- = change in tie ratio per unit of installed base
dI       dx/dt

In a calculus sense, it's got a lot of information in it if you're willing to measure its data the right way.

I suppose almost no one else was willing to view it that way, but that's how I saw it. (Yes, I'm a mathematician.)

I understand what you're driving at, and I think it's valiant attempt to squeeze something interesting out of a limited data set. It would be more meaningful if you had a longer data set and could just look at the direct and derivative functions of the tie-ratio vs. time function at equivalent points in the consoles' life cycle.

 

[Link]

It's funny because it's true :lol . Just out of curiousity, how much would numbers change if WiiPlay wasn't included? Ninty played it well though with that one.

I'd say considering that Wii Sports is bundled and doesn't count toward tie-ratio, it's pretty much a wash. I'm sure a game coming with the console keeps a good percentage of buyers from purchasing any other games with it.

 

[Scottlarock]

you guys are all crazy, all that matters is when the game sells . they don't care about what system launched first or what reviews are. if a game sells on a system thats all the publisher cares about. you can compare launch units, but the game publisher does not care.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

I don't have any concrete answers, but I'll give it a pop psychology shot...

I know what you're talking about -- and mainly, I think it's that people want a horse race (I even used the word "console race" in my article), battle, deathmatch (choose your competitive metaphor) and lively commentary on how it's going. Jesse's article on Gamasutra yesterday, I believe, was on Xbox 360 vs. PS3. That's not the only one.

Generally, people seem confused by the Wii. Is it a new class of entertainment? If so, should we measure it by a different standard than the more traditional consoles like the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3? (Wii Play brings up similar arguments. See this very thread...) If you're hung up trying to classify the Wii or whether we should qualify its success against the other two platforms, you might well be at a loss for what to say about its sales overall.

I dunno. I guess I never thought about how often people frame the current generation as PS3 vs. Xbox 360. But I guess I'll be more self-aware at least, to see if I end up doing it.

I think its a little, hmm not sure the world I want to use here, but a little bit untruthful I guess, to only write about the PS3 vs 360 aspect of this gen. Regardless of what analysts want it to be, what some very vocal few here on gaf want it to be, what developers want it to be, or what the gaming media wants it to be, this gen is a 3 console gen, and the Wii is very much a part of it.

To talk about this gen's sales and not mention the huge success the Wii is having is to not portray the whole picture. I mean where are the analysts about how overall Wii software has outsold the 360's for what 2 or 3 months straight now? I think it's just a lot of analysts and media people painting the picture they want to see, it's the analysts, developers, and the media, just wanting to continue playing the "ostrich with it's head in the sand" game. There's a good chance though by Holidays 08 that Wii could have 50% or more of the WW home console market.


I notice quite few want to talk about how much growth the industry is seeing last year and this year, but you take the DS and Wii out of that equation and it's not quite the same. Yet they're totally ok with taking the Wii out at other points to talk about this gen. There seems to be quite a bit of "We'll talk about it when it helps what we're trying to say and ignore it the rest of the time."

Personally I find the underdog story a good bit more interesting, than watching the two giants duke it out. Almost everyone expected the Wii to be the laughing stock of the home console market it, and it's the exact opposite.

 

[Innotech]

People buy the zapper for the zapper, and not LCBT.

I really think NPD should differentiate based on what people normally buy the product for. WiiPlay and the Zapper are typically sold for the accessories. People buy Guitar Hero, Time Crisis, and eventually WiiFit for the game.

I bought it for the game. Its a great marketing gimmicvk that seems to have worked, but personally I wouldnt require the zapper to want LCBT

 

[poppabk]

you guys are all crazy, all that matters is when the game sells . they don't care about what system launched first or what reviews are. if a game sells on a system thats all the publisher cares about. you can compare launch units, but the game publisher does not care.

But the publisher is developing a game that when greenlit might not see the light of day for another year or two years. So they need to know what sales will be like in two years time, which means they have to try and predict the consoles trajectories. So they have to make predictions and you do that by looking for trends in historic data.

 

[Tmac]

I haven't read the whole thing, i'll be able to finish it only tomorow, but from your highlights:

When the Xbox 360 had an installed base of 8 million systems consumers had purchased nearly seven Xbox 360 games per system. With the Nintendo Wii just now passing 8 million systems, consumers have purchased just 5 Wii games per system. To the extent that publishers can exploit this two-games-per-system advantage, Microsoft's platform is more attractive.

You missed a key point here. Because xbox took a lot longer to reach the 8 million mark, the average time that consumers had owned their 360 was higher than on WII side. And as we know, after someone buys a console, their tie-ration can only go up.

 

[Tmac]

you guys are all crazy, all that matters is when the game sells . they don't care about what system launched first or what reviews are. if a game sells on a system thats all the publisher cares about. you can compare launch units, but the game publisher does not care.

Thats not entirely true. You can have a (MUCH) more profitable game selling only 300k units, than a million seller, for example.

Things aren't that simple, theres a lot of nuances.

 

[Tyrannical]

MS's Feb NPD press release claimed

February NPD data shows a new Xbox 360 software attach rate of 7.2, nearly twice that of the PS3 or the Wii. (February NPD data)

MS's estimate based on actual NPD data puts the Wii attach rate much lower, probably in the ~3.8 range (3.3 without Wiiplay) . Unless they are fibbing.

 

[AnimeTheme]

Generally, people seem confused by the Wii. Is it a new class of entertainment? If so, should we measure it by a different standard than the more traditional consoles like the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3? (Wii Play brings up similar arguments. See this very thread...) If you're hung up trying to classify the Wii or whether we should qualify its success against the other two platforms, you might well be at a loss for what to say about its sales overall.

Well said.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Why do people always think that Nintendo created Wii-play as some method of manipulating the NPD numbers? Couldn't it just be the simpler option of Nintendo wanting to wrangle an extra $10 out of people for a disk that cost them maybe $1 to produce.

You do know that this is "Hajimete no Wii" in Japan, right? (roughly "Wii for the first time") The games are meant to introduce you to the different ways of WiiMote usage. And I think they do a good job at that, plus Tanks is awesome.

The GF has put more hours into WiiPlay with her friends than any other game except Big Brain Academy - the other game that always gets slated on GAF...

BBA is great fun, it could use more games but for budget it's OK. Most of the hate on GAF comes from this being priced as a full game in NA. And frankly, I would have felt buyer's remorse if I paid full price for it.

People buy the zapper for the zapper, and not LCBT.

I really think NPD should differentiate based on what people normally buy the product for. WiiPlay and the Zapper are typically sold for the accessories. People buy Guitar Hero, Time Crisis, and eventually WiiFit for the game.

And who would decide what people buy the product for? I bought WiiPlay for WiiPlay and because I needed a second remote anyways. Same with the zapper - I wanted both.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Take the DS and the Wii out of the equation and the video game industry is very much in trouble.

The market would have to be contracted by a significant amount if you people insists on removing the Wii out of the equation.

 

[Lobster]

MS's Feb NPD press release claimed


MS's estimate based on actual NPD data puts the Wii attach rate much lower, probably in the ~3.8 range (3.3 without Wiiplay) . Unless they are fibbing.

Bull shit twice as much

A 3.6-4 attach rate is laughably bad and I highly doubt it.

 

[Polari]

So are lots of games that you like and I don't, but I don't go into threads spouting off such one-sided nonsense.

You like Wii Play? lol

 

[Bildi]

It was a good move by Nintendo to release Wii Play like they did because it's a great showcase of how good the Wii is at pointer stuff. Wii Sports was essentially all motion stuff.

Wii Play was the game that sold the Wii to my PC gaming friends and also a bunch of arcade lightgun fanatics. They were wowed by Wii Sports, but Wii Play is what really got them interested.

 

[Tyrannical]

Bull shit twice as much

A 3.6-4 (Wii) attach rate is laughably bad and I highly doubt it.

Well, that's what the Feb MS NPD press release claimed. Unlike certain pre-NPD claims, anyone with NPD access could call BS on this. So, has anyone called MS out on this claim?

 

[kkg1701]

Well, that's what the Feb MS NPD press release claimed. Unlike certain pre-NPD claims, anyone with NPD access could call BS on this. So, has anyone called MS out on this claim?

Err, they claim "nearly twice" that of either PS3 or Wii and since they aren't giving out any real numbers it could mean anything above 1 and below 2 multiplied with whatever the ratio is for PS3 and Wii.


KK

 

[Mariah Carey]

Wii Play is the shit.

I fixed that for you.

 

[Tyrannical]

Err, they claim "nearly twice" that of either PS3 or Wii and since they aren't giving out any real numbers it could mean anything above 1 and below 2 multiplied with whatever the ratio is for PS3 and Wii.


KK

But if that were true, any source with NPD data like Sony or Nintendo could call MS out on that.

 

[jarrod]

You like Wii Play? lol

The tank game's fun... I'd have rather bought it standalone as a 500 point WiiWare release though.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

You missed a key point here. Because xbox took a lot longer to reach the 8 million mark, the average time that consumers had owned their 360 was higher than on WII side. And as we know, after someone buys a console, their tie-ration can only go up.

It's kinda a point but not that big of a point. What matters more is that for December and what looks to be February and possibly January, the Wii has sold more software than the 360. Slowly but surely, all final arguments against the Wii are failing.

Wii sold more software from what looks to be the last 3 months, which included the biggest month of the year. What's to say that didn't happen sometime late last year? Maybe not with Halo but even though the 360 does well on initial releases and releases deemed "acceptable" to GAF, Wii is still outselling the 360 on the software side. It happened in December and there were arguments that it only happened because Dec is a casual-type of month but there is no excuse for January and February and possibly a 3 month streak. Why February?

So, for EA and Activision and all other devs/publishers, if their game isn't selling, it's now their fault. The audience is their. Wii is making progress on their tie ratio and we also know that the tie ratio is lower because Wii is selling so fast. If they lead with the Wii and make some progress on the games, they can sell them. But it's their fault. The get outsold by Carnival games, it's their fault. Guitar Hero is selling, why can't their game?

 

[donny2112]

You like Wii Play? lol

You like those games I don't like? lol

So, has anyone called MS out on this claim?

sonycowboy did.

 

[Neomoto]

It's kinda a point but not that big of a point. What matters more is that for December and what looks to be February and possibly January, the Wii has sold more software than the 360. Slowly but surely, all final arguments against the Wii are failing.

[...]

Yeah, and that's only considering America too. Wii software is selling very well in every region, not just America. (I knot this is about NPD but still, overal Wii is selling incredible amounts of software (even with a system selling pack-in title)).

Wii will have a great year in America. Brawl just released, WiiFit and Mario Kart Wii are right around the corner. That alone makes 3 very, very big hitters. Software like Mario & Sonic, Guitar Hero and Wii Play all keep on selling great (and Wii Sports big influence on systems sold should not be overlooked either). And there is that mysterious big holiday title according to Reggie (could be something, or not).

What does the X360 have in 2008 in America besides obviously GTA IV to compete with Nintendo's heavy hitters? Or Sony? (I don't know so it is a question and not sarcasm or something).

 

[Chris FOM]

Well, that's what the Feb MS NPD press release claimed. Unlike certain pre-NPD claims, anyone with NPD access could call BS on this. So, has anyone called MS out on this claim?

Given that NPD released the Wii's tie ratio in December and revealed it was 4.64, and given that tie ratios always rise with time, there's not a chance in hell the Wii currently has a tie ratio under 4. It's impossible all by itself, even before we found out from Nintendo that it sold 2.9 million software units in February. In fact the Wii's tie ratio is now almost assuredly north of 5.

 

[jvm]

Microsoft's tie-ratio data point from their press release is part of what spurred me to put all the tie ratio data I could together on one figure. I too don't see how they could justify the factor of 2, even for small values of 2. ;^)

Here's my theory: they stated a LTD tie ratio but spoke about monthly tie ratio. Here are the numbers, using my estimates (whose flaws are well known in this thread):

Monthly tie ratio for Wii = 2900/432 = 6.7 (2 x 6.7 = 13.4)
Monthly tie ratio for PS3 = 1400/281 = 5.0 (2 x 5.0 = 10.0)

Monthly tie ratio for Xbox 360 = 2700/255 = 10.6

Xbox360/Wii = 10.6/6.7 = 1.58
Xbox360/PS3 = 10.6/5.0 = 2.12

If you round 1.58 up to 2, then perhaps their statement makes sense. Moreover, the Xbox 360 software number is probably an *underestimate* (while the Wii number could have been rounded up by Nintendo) which means the real ratio for Xbox360 to Wii is higher than 1.6, i.e. closer to 2.

What do you think?

 

[speculawyer]

Next gen all the manufacturers will sell a game "with free controller"

I'm really surprised that neither MS nor Sony has pulled this trick yet. It's a cheap way to boost your NPD stats for bragging rights. Just pack some half-way decent game with a controller and charge $10 more than the controller-alone price and you'll have a top 10 game instantly.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It's funny because it's true :lol . Just out of curiousity, how much would numbers change if WiiPlay wasn't included? Ninty played it well though with that one.

Well, if over half of the userbase has it, that'd make a difference of 4+ million software units, or 0.5+ in the tie ratio.

Would an average sales rate per system owner per unit time be meaningful, even if such data were available to compute it? (E.g. 1 game per system owner per month...)

I've calculated such things before, actually going down to week taking into account whether months were 4 or 5 weeks long. However, that stat gives the advantage to younger consoles. Tie ratios don't seem to increase linearly but grow more slowly as time goes on. When I first did it (mid 2007?) it made Wii appear to be a much stronger software seller, though X360's first year tie ratios were much stronger than Wii's first year tie ratios.

I still think the average time owned per system is a useful thing to sit along with tie ratios, to add context. Since I haven't given those in a few months...

Looks like PS3's boost in the last few months has brought its average ownership down. Late 2007 it was around a month behind, but now is actually lower than Wii.

Average ownership per console in weeks after February 2008 NPD
X360: 52.6
PS3: 30.1
Wii: 30.8

Or looking at things another way, average ownership per console in weeks after hitting 8 million total.
Wii: 30.8
X360: 49.3 (November '07 it hit 7.9) or 47.2 (December '07 it hit 9.1)

 

[Zerachiel]

Those graphs seem to indicate that tie ratio tends to increase, rather than decrease with an increased installed base...

 

[poppabk]

Given that NPD released the Wii's tie ratio in December and revealed it was 4.64, and given that tie ratios always rise with time, there's not a chance in hell the Wii currently has a tie ratio under 4. It's impossible all by itself, even before we found out from Nintendo that it sold 2.9 million software units in February. In fact the Wii's tie ratio is now almost assuredly north of 5.

Tie ratios can drop if you sell more consoles than pieces of software in a given month. This is generally unlikely though.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Tie ratios can drop if you sell more consoles than pieces of software in a given month. This is generally unlikely though.

You don't need to sell less software than consoles, but less software than consoles * previous tie ratio.

Basic example. Say a system is currently at 1 million hardware and 10 million software for a tie ratio of 10. Next month it sells 200,000 hardware and 1 million software. The software is much greater than the hardware, but the new tie ratio is 9.2.

It is a pretty rare thing, though, yes. Especially as time goes on and the hardware sales for each new month are a smaller piece of the overall picture.

 

[Starchasing]

I'm really surprised that neither MS nor Sony has pulled this trick yet. It's a cheap way to boost your NPD stats for bragging rights. Just pack some half-way decent game with a controller and charge $10 more than the controller-alone price and you'll have a top 10 game instantly.

Wanna know why they dont do it???

Because it is not as simple as you pretend it to be.

Wii Play is a stroke of genius and thats why it has not been replicated.

 

[Chris FOM]

Tie ratios can drop if you sell more consoles than pieces of software in a given month. This is generally unlikely though.

I'm aware of that, but the likelihood of this happening after the initial surge of installed base accompanying a console launch makes it impossible in the real world, if theoretically plausible. Once the installed base reaches a critical mass that makes the ratio of old owners"new owners (aka monthly sales) relatively small, then it becomes effectively impossible for tie ratio to decrease. At most a rapidly expanding installed base relative to the total installed base (as seen with the Wii and, recently, with the PS3) will slow the rate of the tie ratio's growth, but it won't shrink it.

 

[Neomoto]

Wanna know why they dont do it???

Because it is not as simple as you pretend it to be.

Wii Play is a stroke of genius and thats why it has not been replicated.

I think you give developers not enough credit. I mean, they CAN make great selling non-games or duplicate any other big time Nintendo succes stories/games over the last 20 years, they just don't want to.

 

[DayShallCome]

I think you give developers not enough credit. I mean, they CAN make great selling non-games or duplicate any other big time Nintendo succes stories/games over the last 20 years, they just don't want to.

Do you really believe that? Nintendo makes a lot of bone-headed decisions, but you can't discount their astounding track record when it comes to software (both from a quality and sales point of view). I can't imagine that other developers/publishers would not want to achieve that same level of success.

 

[Neomoto]

:lol Obviously, I was kidding.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Do you really believe that? Nintendo makes a lot of bone-headed decisions, but you can't discount their astounding track record when it comes to software (both from a quality and sales point of view). I can't imagine that other developers/publishers would not want to achieve that same level of success.

Do you need a flashing sign to see what's going on? Here's one read from left to right:
SARCASM sarcasm SARCASM sarcasm.

Wii Sports and Wii Play could be replicated...but at the same level? Attributing Wii Play's success to price ignores the fact that people are excited about a new way of play and it hit at the right time. Could MS just release a few titles like Geometry Wars and that Castlevania remake on a disc with a controller for $10 more and sell millions of it? It sounds nice to GAF probably and these boards would asplode but do you really think it would sell a few million worldwide?

The truth is that it would be a good deal for certain gamers but would be ignored by the greater mass of non-gamers. Wii Play hit at the right time and hit the right note. It's a good game at a great value, enhanced by controller shortages in the beginning, tapping into the need to consume 'waggle' oriented games. Tapping into a need for family oriented games and party oriented games. Only the company that perfected Mario Party could have hit this note so right. Hell, put Contra, Street Fighter 2 Enhanced, Tecmo Bowl, a couple of Rare Game, even Goldeneye 64, and any other fanboy circle jerk dream and it still wouldn't sell a fifth of what Wii Play is gonna sell. Sorry, it's not just one factor. Keep dreaming that it is, though.

 

[speculawyer]

Wanna know why they dont do it???

Because it is not as simple as you pretend it to be.

Wii Play is a stroke of genius and thats why it has not been replicated.

:lol Wii play is an embellished collection of tech demos. It gets dull real quick. But for $10 over the cost of a controller, it is worth picking up. If MS packed a copy of Halo 2 with an xbox 360 controller, they'd probably see some big sales.

 

[vanguardian1]

:lol Wii play is an embellished collection of tech demos. It gets dull real quick. But for $10 over the cost of a controller, it is worth picking up. If MS packed a copy of Halo 2 with an xbox 360 controller, they'd probably see some big sales.

If that's all you see of Wii Play, than you'll never understand it's importance.

 

[Starchasing]

:lol Wii play is an embellished collection of tech demos. It gets dull real quick. But for $10 over the cost of a controller, it is worth picking up. If MS packed a copy of Halo 2 with an xbox 360 controller, they'd probably see some big sales.

Thats just your opinion. Sales prove you wrong. Your idea of Halo 2 with a controller is pure garbage sorry.

But hey, im not defending WiiPlay as a game, i got bored in 10 minutes. But in my case, when my GF and her friends have been playing WiiPlay since it was launched. When i see that i must admit that there is something in that game that makes them have fun, even thou i dont get it.

Some goes with WiiSports. I dont like it that much, but when i see my parents playing it with some friends i must admit that there must be something else in that game too that its not for me.

 

[vanguardian1]

WiiPlay strongly appeals to a few different crowds.

A) People who are shopping for an additional controller and don't mind playing an extra $10 for a few minigames.
B) Non-gamers who are looking for an enjoyable purchase along with WiiSports.
C) Former gamers who are looking for games along the line of what they enjoy (mainly those who dropped off after NES or SNES eras, there were a reasonable number of them too).

Combines those 3 with a lot of new hardware moved each month and suddenly you get a "software" title that constantly charts in the top 10 as long as a sufficient amount of hardware moves for the month.

I grabbed the whole WiiPlay for $10 (and gave a few bucks to my friend for picking it up for me) thanks to a glitch in the system.

 

[JJConrad]

Honest question here, not needling.

Would an average sales rate per system owner per unit time be meaningful, even if such data were available to compute it? (E.g. 1 game per system owner per month...)

Yes and no. It is very meaningful data, (I prefer it more than straight tie-ratio) but it is still just one point of data. You can't judge a performance or create a forecast on just it.

I absolutely disagree.

Tie ratio has historically been a very good indicator of performance. However, it's a number that must be considered with a number of factors, including but not limited to:

a) Length of time from system launch
b) Size of the installed base
c) Differential of first party vs third party
d)

As with any metric, the less savvy will misuse it. However, that's true of raw HW sales, first month SW sales, and every other number one might put out there.

To try and limit conversation because dumbasses can't "use the word correctly in a sentence" is counterproductive. There are a good core of members, who earnestly try to understand and analyze what the numbers mean.

It's certainly true that pack-ins and downloads change the conversation somewhat, but it's still a fundamental component of sales analysis.

The bigger problem is people trying to do analysis in a vacuum (not Matt, but others) and only consider a single factor. There's far too much complexity involved to try and bludgeon folks with a single piece of data to try to prove a desired point of view.

IMO, anyway.

I still feel there needs to be a crackdown on sales thread. The number of dumbasses has overwhelmed the good core members to the point that every sales thread reads the same and relevant conversation is sparse. If not a ban, we need put guidelines in place on how to use these terms to (hopefully) lead conversation into a meaningful direction.

There are many factors that get misused in sales threads. The biggest problem, especially concerning NPD, is that we simply don't have enough information anymore and the extra data we do get is usually run through the PR machine making them incredibly one-sided and misleading. Tie Ratio is probably the most prominently misused term because it is repeated so much in PR. You mentioned another topic that often gets misused, “Differential of first party vs third party,” but I won’t go there.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'm aware of that, but the likelihood of this happening after the initial surge of installed base accompanying a console launch makes it impossible in the real world, if theoretically plausible.

Not totally impossible. GCN did it two years after launch, when its big November 2003 increased the US userbase by 16% in one month.

 

[sonycowboy]

I still feel there needs to be a crackdown on sales thread. The number of dumbasses has overwhelmed the good core members to the point that every sales thread reads the same and relevant conversation is sparse. If not a ban, we need put guidelines in place on how to use these terms to (hopefully) lead conversation into a meaningful direction.

There are many factors that get misused in sales threads. The biggest problem, especially concerning NPD, is that we simply don't have enough information anymore and the extra data we do get is usually run through the PR machine making them incredibly one-sided and misleading. Tie Ratio is probably the most prominently misused term because it is repeated so much in PR. You mentioned another topic that often gets misused, “Differential of first party vs third party,” but I won’t go there.

I tried to crackdown and focus the monthly sales thread a few times. What I came to realize is that it's not mine, or even the hardcore sales junkies. The monthly NPD thread is a huge deal and it's mostly not for the purpose of true analysis. Usually, it's more of a primordial response based on one's particular biases.

Probably the best approach is to have a secondary thread (tied toghether with Pachter's, TSE's, Matt's, and our own analysis of what happened in that months' results). It's much less static filled.

 

[virtuafightermaster]

I know why xbox 360 attach rate is so high, I own 70+ 360 games.

 

[PantherLotus]

if anybody would care for some charts i would be happy to post them. not sure if they'd be welcome in this thread though.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I know why xbox 360 attach rate is so high, I own 70+ 360 games.

Without you, X360's tie ratio wouldn't so much be 7 as it would be 6.999993.

 

[Jocchan]

if anybody would care for some charts i would be happy to post them. not sure if they'd be welcome in this thread though.

Your charts should be welcome in every thread, at least imho.

 

[jvm]

if anybody would care for some charts i would be happy to post them. not sure if they'd be welcome in this thread though.

If the OP author carries any weight at all...bring 'em in. (I assume they're in the thread you started, but it's nice having more info in one thread, IMO.)