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February 2008 NPD Analysis (next-gen.biz)
- Thread starter jvm
- Start date
jvm said:
I figure as much, but my bigger point wasn't the little bit of extra that NPD gave you but rather that your analysis of the numbers was some of the best on the net. People didn't read your articles for extra tidbits or the extrapolation, but rather because you were able to say better than just about anyone else out there what the number meant. I think that in trying to extrapolate more and more numbers rather than just sticking to what's known you've gotten away from what made your earlier articles so great and have instead crossed over into an area that's not nearly as strong.
AnimeTheme
Member
Mario said:
So you have the actual number?
I think most people's issue seems not to be with how much positive and negative has been presented for each platform, but the actual point itself, it being misleading, and what really odd conclusion...jvm said:
I personally am not sure how a publisher can exploit the fact that 360 owners have more games. Wii software sells more is recent months, and also Wii's tie-ratio was only 1.5 times less at a point when it has been out for 10 less months.
I dunno, I just don't like people's obsessions with tie-ratios. If it was so important, then publishers should jump ship and start developing games for last-gen consoles again - their tie-ratios kick current-gen console's ass, atm.
I'd love to ban using tie-ratio here. Between, Wii Sport and all other bundled games, the fighting over Wii Play, the exclusion of Link' Crossbow Training and soon WiiFit, downloaded services, and people's general misunderstand of the term and its implications the numbers we have are meaningless and are only good for spreading BS. They cause more problems than they cure.Parl said:
J-Rzez said:
The best part is Nintendo Copied Sony on this one and now people think that Wii Play + controller was their underhanded move. True the other examples were not nearly as well selling and the controller included wasn't generic but specialised (Singstar, EyeToy, Buzz Etc.) but that was Sony's one mistake. If they had figured out how to make all the controllers map to one piece of plastic AND still make it relevant to the machine they'd have had a more accessible package.
Edit: and I'd have to agree - the articles are great, but the emphasis on modelling (with no real way of checking to see if the predictions the model makes are accurate) is a dangerous game.
Maybe you need to get the site to buy the NPD data, then you can read it and try to write the article without breaching copyright or data protection laws!! (actually that would be practically impossible so it's not advisable).
Being an analyst that works in highly confidential data myself (clinical data) I know what a minefield it is (but how funny it is watching the media try to guess whats actually going on from the few scraps they get!)
Honest question here, not needling.JJConrad said:
Would an average sales rate per system owner per unit time be meaningful, even if such data were available to compute it? (E.g. 1 game per system owner per month...)
Are total software sales numbers sufficient, even if we can agree what "software" is? That is, is there a measure other than a tie ratio that would give a solid measure of how well software is selling per platform? One that people can generally agree to be useful?
That doesn't, of course, address downloadable software and hybrids like Wii Fit and Wii Play.
Tie data is odd because there are multiple groups of consumers.
The X360 price drop will cause the tie rate to go down long term (for example) as less cash rich casual game fans buy the system for their GTA & Sports fixes.
Snap-shot tie data isn't actually as meaningful as it first appears because the pool of consumers that had the system in a previous month have to be accounted for.
Will be interesting to see the baseline month on month tie change for GTA month though - this kind of modelling is fantastic for answering questions such as "did more people choose to buy a PS3 because of GTA or a X360?" and the background 'baseline' data you have from the Jan Feb period should allow you to answer that one quite nicely!
The X360 price drop will cause the tie rate to go down long term (for example) as less cash rich casual game fans buy the system for their GTA & Sports fixes.
Snap-shot tie data isn't actually as meaningful as it first appears because the pool of consumers that had the system in a previous month have to be accounted for.
Will be interesting to see the baseline month on month tie change for GTA month though - this kind of modelling is fantastic for answering questions such as "did more people choose to buy a PS3 because of GTA or a X360?" and the background 'baseline' data you have from the Jan Feb period should allow you to answer that one quite nicely!
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Parl said:
Take Madden 08 as an example, the 360 version outsold the PS2 version even though the PS2 had a way, WAY bigger install base.
cortland_andrus
Banned
Wait, so why isn't Wii Fit going to be included in tie-in ratios? That's idiotic. So if certain people had their way, Wii Sports, Wii Play and Wii Fit wouldn't count towards tie-in ratios, somehow ceasing them to exist in the collections of Wii owners :lol
A classic example of why tie-in numbers are irrelevent is the current situation in Japan. There is rarely a PS3 game even in the top 20 or 30 over there. It's Wii/DS domination. I just read the Wii's top 50 over there tallies around 18 million, compared to the 4.5 million sold to date for the PS3. Yes, that's a lousy 4 million+ for total software sales for the top 50 PS3 games in Sony's home territory well over a year after launch. Anyways, figure the tie-in ratios. You've got something around two and a half games per PS3, and around three and a half from the Wii.
See, PS3 is actually nipping at the Wii's heels there. Great success!
A classic example of why tie-in numbers are irrelevent is the current situation in Japan. There is rarely a PS3 game even in the top 20 or 30 over there. It's Wii/DS domination. I just read the Wii's top 50 over there tallies around 18 million, compared to the 4.5 million sold to date for the PS3. Yes, that's a lousy 4 million+ for total software sales for the top 50 PS3 games in Sony's home territory well over a year after launch. Anyways, figure the tie-in ratios. You've got something around two and a half games per PS3, and around three and a half from the Wii.
See, PS3 is actually nipping at the Wii's heels there. Great success!
Will have to read the rest of the thread later, so this may have already been covered.
And GCN games and XBX games and PS1 games and DC games and GBOY games and Game Gear games and ...
NPD never just stops counting systems' software sales. If a member of their panel sells a game on that platform, they report it with their usual extrapolation.
jvm said:
And GCN games and XBX games and PS1 games and DC games and GBOY games and Game Gear games and ...
NPD never just stops counting systems' software sales. If a member of their panel sells a game on that platform, they report it with their usual extrapolation.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Why do people always think that Nintendo created Wii-play as some method of manipulating the NPD numbers? Couldn't it just be the simpler option of Nintendo wanting to wrangle an extra $10 out of people for a disk that cost them maybe $1 to produce.J-Rzez said:
A good point donny. My biggest concern there was GBA games, which I figured could amount to something. Supply of all but the biggest games there has been cut off, however -- the two local Best Buy stores here have removed the GBA section, AFAICT, and the Targets have a few select GBA games shelved alongside the NDS games.donny2112 said:
On the other hand, if someone on NPD's panel bought a brand new Dreamcast game, I'd like to know where s/he is shopping! :^D
If you do get a chance to read through the rest later, don't hesitate to follow up or PM me with criticisms. Thanks.
sonycowboy
Member
JJConrad said:
I absolutely disagree.
Tie ratio has historically been a very good indicator of performance. However, it's a number that must be considered with a number of factors, including but not limited to:
a) Length of time from system launch
b) Size of the installed base
c) Differential of first party vs third party
d)
As with any metric, the less savvy will misuse it. However, that's true of raw HW sales, first month SW sales, and every other number one might put out there.
To try and limit conversation because dumbasses can't "use the word correctly in a sentence" is counterproductive. There are a good core of members, who earnestly try to understand and analyze what the numbers mean.
It's certainly true that pack-ins and downloads change the conversation somewhat, but it's still a fundamental component of sales analysis.
The bigger problem is people trying to do analysis in a vacuum (not Matt, but others) and only consider a single factor. There's far too much complexity involved to try and bludgeon folks with a single piece of data to try to prove a desired point of view.
IMO, anyway.
jvm said:
Probably GameStop. I also have a sneaking suspicion that they occasionally ring up a used game sale as a new one and it gets put into NPD, too. :lol
For comparison, Famitsu (Japanese sales) stops recording game sales for a game at some unknown threshold. They also get shipment data from their reporting stores, so they may cut it off at about what was reported shipped. Regardless, at some point, games never gain another sale in their totals. NPD does not have that restriction.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Lets be honest, Wii Play doesn't have $30 worth of content, its worth paying the extra $10 for but that is it. Wii Play truly is a group of tech demo's that are placed on one disk. Most don't use the motion sensing at all just the IR pointer, suggesting they derive from early tech demo's that originated before the Wiimote technology was finalized.donny2112 said:
Both of you bring up really good points.sonycowboy said:
Tie ratio without a doubt is useful given the context we put it in - however, most of the times, raving fanatics of either side will try to use the tie ratio while ignoring all other factors that come into play to try to spin something positively or negatively.
I propose we ban idiots who try to use tie ratios to spin. That will make all of us happy, I think.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Tie ratio would be more interesting if it could be normalized for launch dates somehow. Not by looking at the same stage in a consoles life but by some analysis of the figures, but I am not sure this is possible. Any cumulative figure is going to be less interesting without some kind of normalization.sonycowboy said:
poppabk said:
Let's be honest. Wii Play has easily $20 worth of content in it, but as the new "budget" price for this generation seems to be $30, that's what they would've tried to sell it at. It wouldn't have gotten near the attention at that price. Therefore packing a Wii-mote in was a great idea to get this very fun game out to the masses.
Wii Play is freaking fun! I love how the Miis you designed are everywhere. You may not get a kick out of seeing yourself, your entire family, and every whacked out Mii you've created watch you play Ping Pong, show up in a crowd, get abducted by aliens, ride cows, be on a pool ball, etc., but I and millions of other owners do. It was never designed to be a "push the technical limits" game. It was designed to be fun and it succeeded brilliantly at that goal.
I remember that before the full details about WiiPlay were announced, that pretty much everybody agreed that it should either be super cheap, or be bundled with the controller.
Then Nintendo unveiled that it would be packed in with a controller.
Moral of the story: Internets/GAF, you brought this upon yourselves.
Then Nintendo unveiled that it would be packed in with a controller.
Moral of the story: Internets/GAF, you brought this upon yourselves.
donny2112 said:
Another point to add in figuring Wii Play into the tie ratio is the fact we're discounting WiiSports, the game that undoubtedly caused the Wii "craze/fad/frenzy" for more than a year now.
Despite what delusional detractors might cry about, WiiSports is pretty much the most or at the very least one of the most influential game the gaming history has ever witnessed.
I don't think any other game or entertainment system has ever induced such a "frenzy/craze/fad" as long as WiiSports has.
jarrod said:
People buy the zapper for the zapper, and not LCBT.
I really think NPD should differentiate based on what people normally buy the product for. WiiPlay and the Zapper are typically sold for the accessories. People buy Guitar Hero, Time Crisis, and eventually WiiFit for the game.
Generalizations are iffy... I hate the Zapper, but I want LCBT eventually and it's only $20 anyway. If people wanted a Wiimote, they could save $10 and skip Wii Play just as easily... I think you really need to seperate all bundles from software ratios or include all bundles, but you can't really pick and choose based on the subjective whims of consumers. It's all or nothing imo.ZealousD said:
I think tie ratios should be presented in a historic context. Establish some baseline curves from performances of past systems- I would recommend PS2, GBA, and SNES if the data is available. Use Japan if necessary to avoid NPD problems. Create standard graphs displaying the change in tie ratio over the lifetime of these most successful systems. Tie ratios of the current systems should be compared against those data points as consistently as they are compared against each other.
The foundation of much of the argument over tie ratio is many posters discussing it honestly do not know what is a good tie ratio, a bad tie ratio, or how they change through the life of a system. They cannot speak intelligently about whether the PS3 is doing poorly because they don't really know what "poorly" is contextually, and so forth. And they cannot make reasonable predictions about future tie ratios (and therefore sales of future games) on a given platform because they do not know how the ratios tend to increase or decrease over time, or why they behave the way they do.
Regarding bundled software+hardware: Typically they should count. You must have an extraordinary reason to not include them. I agree with not including games that are bundled with valuable equipment when there is NO OTHER WAY to purchase the equipment. This is why Wii Sports cannot be counted. While it would undoubtedly sell extremely well it's erroneous to believe everyone purchasing the Wii would want the game, they simply have no choice since all NA Wiis come new with the game included. Wii Play and Guitar Hero are counted since you can purchase the hardware independently if you wish: Someone picking up Wii Play is paying a $10 premium. LCBT is borderline and hinges on whether the game is more "valuable" to the purchaser than the shell.
For those of you leaping to the conclusion that everyone must be buying LCBT for the shell I remind you of this: When the DS Rumble Pak was introduced it was only available by purchasing Metroid Prime Pinball. Do you believe that game should be counted or not?
The foundation of much of the argument over tie ratio is many posters discussing it honestly do not know what is a good tie ratio, a bad tie ratio, or how they change through the life of a system. They cannot speak intelligently about whether the PS3 is doing poorly because they don't really know what "poorly" is contextually, and so forth. And they cannot make reasonable predictions about future tie ratios (and therefore sales of future games) on a given platform because they do not know how the ratios tend to increase or decrease over time, or why they behave the way they do.
Regarding bundled software+hardware: Typically they should count. You must have an extraordinary reason to not include them. I agree with not including games that are bundled with valuable equipment when there is NO OTHER WAY to purchase the equipment. This is why Wii Sports cannot be counted. While it would undoubtedly sell extremely well it's erroneous to believe everyone purchasing the Wii would want the game, they simply have no choice since all NA Wiis come new with the game included. Wii Play and Guitar Hero are counted since you can purchase the hardware independently if you wish: Someone picking up Wii Play is paying a $10 premium. LCBT is borderline and hinges on whether the game is more "valuable" to the purchaser than the shell.
For those of you leaping to the conclusion that everyone must be buying LCBT for the shell I remind you of this: When the DS Rumble Pak was introduced it was only available by purchasing Metroid Prime Pinball. Do you believe that game should be counted or not?
I think tie-in ratios should be used when making referrence to future software sales potential, this would also have to consider...
- Install base, because of total software sales
- Install based expansion rate, because of the potential expansion of software sales
- Age of each console, because older consoles mostly have higher tie-ratios, but can still have a less hungry software market than a newer, lower tie-ratio console - case in point, Wii and 360.
- Significant factors affecting tie-in ratio that may change in the future. For instance, Wii Sports delays the first purchase of a counted game for many people, but once this delay has been overcome, its negative affects doesn't continue. The larger the install base, the less Wii Sports negatively affects the average tie-in ratio, which is why I think Wii has seen the the steeping increases in the ratio.
- And stuff like Wii Play that certainly wouldn't have sold has much if it was without the Wii-mote, unless it was ultra cheap, in which case, its inclusion is questionable. And then the exclusion of Wii fit and stuff - it's more expensive, so it's like you're paying for a game, then paying extra because it has a peripheral. I think Wii fit should be considered and not just be limited to one organisation's (NPDs) definitions when analysing.
- Install base, because of total software sales
- Install based expansion rate, because of the potential expansion of software sales
- Age of each console, because older consoles mostly have higher tie-ratios, but can still have a less hungry software market than a newer, lower tie-ratio console - case in point, Wii and 360.
- Significant factors affecting tie-in ratio that may change in the future. For instance, Wii Sports delays the first purchase of a counted game for many people, but once this delay has been overcome, its negative affects doesn't continue. The larger the install base, the less Wii Sports negatively affects the average tie-in ratio, which is why I think Wii has seen the the steeping increases in the ratio.
- And stuff like Wii Play that certainly wouldn't have sold has much if it was without the Wii-mote, unless it was ultra cheap, in which case, its inclusion is questionable. And then the exclusion of Wii fit and stuff - it's more expensive, so it's like you're paying for a game, then paying extra because it has a peripheral. I think Wii fit should be considered and not just be limited to one organisation's (NPDs) definitions when analysing.
Plotting tie ratios against installed base doesn't really make much sense, honestly.
What's driving the tie ratio is time. Obviously, installed base is also increasing over time, so by plotting tie ratios against installed base you're implying a positive correlation where none exists.
If anything, the increase in installed base is a countervailing factor driving tie ratios DOWN. Later console buyers will tend to be more casual, and buy less games than early adopters.
Really, the only two-variable analysis that makes sense is to chart tie ratios against months from console launch, or possibly "average age of installed base."
What's driving the tie ratio is time. Obviously, installed base is also increasing over time, so by plotting tie ratios against installed base you're implying a positive correlation where none exists.
If anything, the increase in installed base is a countervailing factor driving tie ratios DOWN. Later console buyers will tend to be more casual, and buy less games than early adopters.
Really, the only two-variable analysis that makes sense is to chart tie ratios against months from console launch, or possibly "average age of installed base."
I've finished reading the article. It has some good parts (e.g. analysis of the relative to Wii rates for PS3 and 360, tie ratio vs. hardware graph and analysis, bringing in the Target sale for PS2 monthly sales), but I also agree that it is unfortunate you are having to do this napkin math to come up with some of the numbers, since it is taking you into shaky areas. As you said, it's not up to you what numbers you receive from NPD, if any, for a particular month, though.
On another forum, a poster has (correctly) lamented the fact that most analysts spend their time focusing on PS3 and 360 with sort of an afterthought for Wii. Almost like they expect it to die out soon and don't want to spend time on it. That, or they're just so confused as to why it's selling that they can't intelligently speak on the subject. These same analysts will then laud the outstanding industry growth figures, that would not be anywhere near as outstanding without the Wii.
What's your take on that? Do you sense an unwillingness to devote considerable time and thought to the Wii amongst analysts? If so, do you have any ideas as to why that may be?
JoshuaJSlone has a nice algorithm for doing that in the Media-Create threads. I think he might have brought it over to the NPD threads a couple of times, too.
On another forum, a poster has (correctly) lamented the fact that most analysts spend their time focusing on PS3 and 360 with sort of an afterthought for Wii. Almost like they expect it to die out soon and don't want to spend time on it. That, or they're just so confused as to why it's selling that they can't intelligently speak on the subject. These same analysts will then laud the outstanding industry growth figures, that would not be anywhere near as outstanding without the Wii.
What's your take on that? Do you sense an unwillingness to devote considerable time and thought to the Wii amongst analysts? If so, do you have any ideas as to why that may be?
Rhindle said:
JoshuaJSlone has a nice algorithm for doing that in the Media-Create threads. I think he might have brought it over to the NPD threads a couple of times, too.
I fully agree. I for one am more interested in the rate at which an average console owner has bought games.Rhindle said:
Understanding where tie-in ratios are useless on their own involves just understanding why it doesn't make sense to drop 360 support for GameCube, despite GameCube's higher tie-in ratio and install base, and then applying that to why Wii support is worth considering when compared with the prospect of 360 support.
I would posit that the graph shown includes the data you're asking for. A graph can be just a pretty picture, but to me this graph encapsulates a lot of information -- you just need to view it as an elaborate table of data.Rhindle said:
To be more precise, the curves given on my tie ratio graph represent three variables, not two. Each curve is parameterized by the time-equidistant data points, given by the months Sept - Feb. That, to me, is what made it a very interesting graph (other than just an interesting one).
In mathematical terms (think back to first semester calculus), the curves are given by I = x(t) and T = y(t) where I = installed base, T = tie ratio, and t = time (in months). Then:
Code:
dI
-- = x'(t) = change in installed base per unit time
dt
dT
-- = y'(t) = change in tie ratio per unit time (what you asked for)
dt
and
dT dy/dt
-- = -------- = change in tie ratio per unit of installed base
dI dx/dtIn a calculus sense, it's got a lot of information in it if you're willing to measure its data the right way.
I suppose almost no one else was willing to view it that way, but that's how I saw it. (Yes, I'm a mathematician.)
I don't have any concrete answers, but I'll give it a pop psychology shot...donny2112 said:
I know what you're talking about -- and mainly, I think it's that people want a horse race (I even used the word "console race" in my article), battle, deathmatch (choose your competitive metaphor) and lively commentary on how it's going. Jesse's article on Gamasutra yesterday, I believe, was on Xbox 360 vs. PS3. That's not the only one.
Generally, people seem confused by the Wii. Is it a new class of entertainment? If so, should we measure it by a different standard than the more traditional consoles like the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3? (Wii Play brings up similar arguments. See this very thread...) If you're hung up trying to classify the Wii or whether we should qualify its success against the other two platforms, you might well be at a loss for what to say about its sales overall.
I dunno. I guess I never thought about how often people frame the current generation as PS3 vs. Xbox 360. But I guess I'll be more self-aware at least, to see if I end up doing it.