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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

T

The Shogun

Banned
orochi91 said:
I'm thinking Best Buy and Gamestop aren't as militant in their zeal, with regards to retail leaks; at least not the same way NPD are.

You should be safe ;)
Click to expand...

I would hope not.

Its why I won't give out exact numbers though, as that's what will lead to........unpleasant conversation. More just willing to give trend data / my outlook. And occasionally something a little more detailed.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
The Shogun said:
Am I the last one giving out some number /retail hints?

Something I missed? Like is it time to go dark too?
Click to expand...

NPD won't come after you since you're not leaking their number. You still should be wary of the retailer you work for though, too much leaks and they're probably won't be happy about it.

The Shogun said:
I would hope not.

Its why I won't give out exact numbers though, as that's what will lead to........unpleasant conversation. More just willing to give trend data / my outlook. And occasionally something a little more detailed.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I noticed that and that's why I think you're safe.
And as always, thanks for all the insights you gave us!
 
S

SephCast

Brotherhood of Shipley's
Goodbye Aqua, you will be missed.

Hopefully this is like Hydra, though.

cut-off-one-head-and-two-more-shall-take-its-place.png
Click to expand...
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
Road said:
Sad situation about Aquamarine. Dealing with private information is difficult. It's not just NPD information, but also related to the job description. David Gibson was another example, who was told to stop talking about the Nintendo investor meetings. Information is I guess the most valuable thing on the stock market.

Hopefully others won't be scared, you just have to establish a word quota per month. =P
Click to expand...

Again, that is the reason most analysts remain anonymous, a lot of the stuff I write was ripped from reports I had written which the bank used to sell for silly money, I used to change it up enough so I wouldn't get caught by the company bots that looked for unauthorised publication, but it was still risky enough that I definitely didn't want to get caught. I eventually got done in by the PS4 costing analysis but I was already on the way out so it wasn't really a big deal.
 
O

Occam

Member
Microsoft's PR department must be having a field day. Finally they can spin all they want, completely unchecked.

What's the point of even having further sales discussions about NPD's data, if we basically have nothing to talk about? Just like Europe, America has now gone dark as far as video game sales are concerned.

Goodbye Aqua, and thanks for all the fish.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Occam said:
Microsoft's PR department must be having a field day. Finally they can spin all they want, completely unchecked.

What's the point of even having further sales discussions about NPD's data, when we basically have nothing to talk about? Just like Europe, America has now gone dark as far as video game sales are concerned.

Goodbye Aqua, and thanks for all the fish.
Click to expand...

We have cream and sugar on the side of some pies. I think we're alright in that department.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Occam said:
Microsoft's PR department must be having a field day. Finally they can spin all they want, completely unchecked.

What's the point of even having further sales discussions about NPD's data, when we basically have nothing to talk about? Just like Europe, America has now gone dark as far as video game sales are concerned.

Goodbye Aqua, and thanks for all the fish.
Click to expand...
*sigh*

*insert CosmicQueso post on NPD PR statements*
 
O

On Demand

Banned
Welfare said:
He posted something on that subject? I'd like to see it.
Click to expand...

Something about it's not obsessed over. They look at it and decide if they want to comment on it. If so, a PR is typed up and sent out and everyone continues on their day with NPD long forgotten about.
 
I

IntelliHeath

As in "Heathcliff"
DaBoss said:
Well, shit. I haven't participated in sales threads for a while due to reasons, but I did occasionally read through them and enjoyed reading your insightful posts (as well as some other members').

I hope everything goes well and wish you the best for your future, Aquamarine.
Click to expand...

Pretty much this. I blame the prodigy for dragging me into this community but I don't really make any post. However I did read some members' posts but mostly looking forward for your posts and information.
 
I

IndoAssassin

Banned
Sad to see Aqua go. Really enjoyed reading her insights into the industry and learned a lot from her.

So I guess these prediction threads will be pointless now. Unless mods can figure out a way for Creamsugar to remain anonymous. Maybe allow him/her to create a new account every month or something.
 
1

1st Course

Member
Road said:
Sad situation about Aquamarine. Dealing with private information is difficult. It's not just NPD information, but also related to the job description. David Gibson was another example, who was told to stop talking about the Nintendo investor meetings. Information is I guess the most valuable thing on the stock market.

Hopefully others won't be scared, you just have to establish a word quota per month. =P
Click to expand...

Even the companies own financial reports don' t have as much information as they used to. Companies like EA and Activision stopped giving unit sales all together recently and try to dance around it when asked, some guy months ago asked about Titanfall sale figures during the call and they basically told him they are happy with the game performance but didn't share any numbers. You have also the combining numbers bullshit Sony/MS been doing with the Vita/XB1.

The industry is becoming more and more secretive with sale figures. Companies don't want anything negative on public, only want to share the numbers when they are good.
 
O

On Demand

Banned
On Demand said:
Anyone want to PM this secret base? I would love to keep following her.

It's crazy how strict and secretive NPD has become. They use to be so open with everything. What made them change? Developers and Publishers don't like sharing anymore? Sony, MS, Nintendo? With the movie industry happily telling us everything about how much a movie made- budgets, loss, profits etc, there's even sites dedicated to this, the game industry is looking pretty damn selfish not wanting us to know how their products are selling every month. Only talking when it benefits them in a PR sense.


Fuck right off thank you.
Click to expand...

Take note please!!!!!!!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/

http://pro.boxoffice.com/

You can still have a successful PR! Oh wait but you won't be able to spin anything faster than a latin dancer..........awwwwwwwww.


NPD might as well not release any report at all. All we get are pointless combined software that tells us nothing. We don't even get hardware positions. At least do the same thing with hardware you do with software.

We are left with PR after PR. We're being fooled people.
 
1

1st Course

Member
On Demand said:
Take note please!!!!!!!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/

http://pro.boxoffice.com/

You can still have a successful PR! Oh wait but you won't be able to spin anything faster than a latin dancer..........awwwwwwwww.


NPD might as well not release any report at all. All we get are pointless combined software that tells us nothing. We don't even get hardware positions. At least do the same thing with hardware you do with software.

We are left with PR after PR. We're being fooled people.
Click to expand...

Numbers used to be public years ago and even get posted on popular game sites like Gamespot and IGN

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/np...illion-halo-3-sells-482-million/1100-6184847/

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/sept-us-game-sales-nearly-flat-ps3-beats-wii-360-npd/1100-6237093/

Only few years ago they stopped giving numbers all together.
 
P

Pathfinder

Member
D

daveo42

Banned
Really sad to see Aqua go, but I understand her reasons. Good luck out there and much love for one of the best posters here. You'll be missed.
 
P

Pathfinder

Member
Occam said:
Microsoft's PR department must be having a field day. Finally they can spin all they want, completely unchecked.
Click to expand...

This is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Microsoft is going to continue doing PR the same way they always have, so that opens the door for at least one person out there to always contribute their spin to Aquamarine leaving.
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
anyone thinks if Order moved any systems? I am curious to see how it performed.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
IndoAssassin said:
So I guess these prediction threads will be pointless now. Unless mods can figure out a way for Creamsugar to remain anonymous. Maybe allow him/her to create a new account every month or something.
Click to expand...

creamsugar is anonymous for years and should continue that way.
 
H

HaKkErO

Neo Member
With digital getting a boost this gen, I honestly don't think NPD is as important as before. Regardless, Aquamarine will be missed for her insight more than the numbers.

A part of me wants to believe the post was BS. Reading it, the first thought that came into my head was that her account was hacked. Can we check the IPs?
 
A

allan-bh

Member
HaKkErO said:
With digital getting a boost this gen, I honestly don't think NPD is as important as before. Regardless, Aquamarine will be missed for her insight more than the numbers.
Click to expand...

NPD hardware sales will always been important, I hope we continue having access.

Software sales you're right, it's not important at the same level that was, but still is good to know.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Aquamarine said:
Well...this is unfortunate.
Click to expand...

I really have to commend you for dealing upfront with NPD about this and trying to get a bit more leeway from them directly. You fought the good fight. Your contributions here have always been top-notch, as well, and I'm not just talking about leaks or such. Anyone can talk about numbers, but you like to look beyond them, and we liked to look with you. :)

You will be missed. Thanks for everything, Aqua.
 
W

Wildarmsjecht

Member
Well shit.

Not much else I can really say except "well shit."

Best of luck, keep your employment and we thank you profoundly for your input.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
As a fellow leaker of information, seeing Aqua get taken out like this... just sucks.

Aqua, you're awesome, and I'll miss your insights in the various threads, not just the insider information you have provided. Be safe out there, know we're all rooting for you.

Those of us still sharing, let's keep on being careful. If I had NPD numbers, I'd certainly be trying to find a safe way to share them.
 
Z

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Best wishes Aqua. That really sucks it came down to this, but at least it seems you've kept your position. I was far more interested for your insight than the #s, so I do hope you do get to voice your opinions in some way in the future. Thanks again!
 
D

donny2112

Member
Abdiel said:
If I had NPD numbers, I'd certainly be trying to find a safe way to share them.
Click to expand...

As it's something that I've thought about a lot over the years, here are some suggestions.

  1. Be like icecream cs
    NeoGAF doesn't actually need precise numbers. Yeah, sure, we'd like to have some, but it's not a requisite. Ask any long-timer, and they'll tell you that a "good idea" (e.g. individual ranges, games grouped by buckets of range, delicious pie) of the sales that can keep coming is better than precise sales one month before NPD cuts it off. Yes, people will complain about it and rail against "the man" for keeping information private. Ignore these people. Use the ignore button even. You won't be missing out.
  2. Run the numbers through math mayhem before sharing
    Use a parser that randomly adds/subtracts 1-5% to a sales number and then be inconsistent month-to-month in rounding. Use ceiling some months. Floor others. Round to the nearest even multiple of 2312. Yes the numbers will be imprecise, but then see #1.
  3. Use non-searchable criteria
    Misspellings. Internet memes. Pictures instead of words.

Things to avoid:
  • Ever sharing precise numbers.
  • Being predictable.
  • Listening to people complaining about a service you're doing to the Sales-Age community.
  • Being overeager to please. Share what you're comfortable with and no more. Sales-Age will never be satisfied for numbers (Famitsu Top 1000? How about top 10,000?), so don't try. Keep in your comfort zone, and don't try to satisfy ours.

:)
 
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