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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

Kysen

Member
Why are the NPD so stingy with the numbers. I though the subscribers were more interested in the actual market data and trends. Just a simple top 5(units) would be enough instead of those pointless charts they release each month.
 
Sad to see you go Aquamarine. I learned when I had access to NPD and GfK data last year not to leak. It wasn't worth the hassle. I hope everything at work isn't an issue, even for senior level people I know it has been a problem with threats for the firm to be cut off. That was what I was told when I pushed my old company to subscribe to the data. Hope you can come back one day.
 

Welfare

Member
Aqua no!

vader.jpg


If there's a "super-secret base", I like secrets :)
 

tesla246

Member
Meh, this industry disgusts me where they try to nickel and dime you for every little thing, release broken unfinished products with expensive DLC and season-passes on empty promises. Where youtubers/people on twitter are way more popular than game-developers. To me it feels like the focus of those most involved/in the spotlight is all about money. Its a shame because numbers were always widely provided 6 years back. It wouldnt be to far off to guess some game-company or a combination of companys have urged NPD and the like to not share numbers in any form with the general public because it may harm their pr.

Sorry for coming off a little edgy, but now with another insider gone it just makes me a little mad. Just how many potentially negative sources which may harm their PR in the slightest will they track down? Do they want to controll every little thing? I no longer trust most of the websites regarding reviews. Luckily gaf is still here.
 
Well, I don't really care about NPD anymore. They're basically worthless since the numbers are 100% censored to the public now. I'd imagine GAF NPD threads will take a dramatic hit in popularity as well.
 

specdot

Member
Real talk, good looking out, Aqua. Your contributions are going to be missed. I'm personally glad you didn't lose your job over silly console flamebait numbers
the ones we cannot live without. =p
 
Good luck, Aqua! Sorry to see you go.

Still sour how the hidden email tag system was done away with, but I understand why.

If those NPD ninjas are on you like that, I'd cool it with talks of super secret bases.

Some gaffers with allegiances elsewhere (like chartz) will spread that info with no thought of the consequences to you. It happened before last time you were banned.

Take care of yourself. Hope to hear from you again, in one form or another.
 

Javin98

Banned
Damn, a very sad day for GAF to lose Aqua..... She really contributed a lot to the NPD threads and now it's just not gonna be the same without her. I know it's done to death but what's a salute like an MGS salute to show respect?
gULahnr.png
 

nelchaar

Member
Damn, thank you for sticking you neck out for this community Aqua. You made the right decision. You will be sorely missed!
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Yeah I call bullshit on this entire story.
sadly, i agree... though the insight and numbers were gold

Why do you guys think this?

wtf is wrong with both of you. At least say thank you to Aqua or something rather than trying to be attention seekers.

This story makes sense to me as I've seen it first hand in my job. People were almost sacked and forced to delete posts/accounts for leaking confidential information on the internet from other organisations that we worked with. Whilst it's not the same thing it's very similar and this is a much smaller company than NPD. (Still global company though)
 

Wereroku

Member
Yeah I call bullshit on this entire story.

Please tell me you are calling bullshit on NPD being assholes and not that Aqua is making all that shit up.

Anyway sucks Aqua you were awesome I don't know why they wouldn't let you at least participate with the community without leaks. Anyway your job and life are more important than this so you made the right choice lurking ain't so bad so at least you still get to enjoy some of the fun.
 

Dodecagon

works for a research lab making 6 figures
Why do you guys think this?

wtf is wrong with both of you.

I don't buy an intense back and forth between NPD management and a JPMorgan employee. Just doesn't seem plausible that you'd continue to post numbers after you were found out, especially if they confronted your employer. Maybe it's true, just doesn't pass the smell test to me, so I'll just back off since obviously I can't prove anything either way and a mod hasn't verified the post.
 
I don't buy an intense back and forth between NPD management and a JPMorgan employee. Just doesn't seem plausible that you'd continue to post numbers after you were found out, especially if they confronted your employer.

Just go away. Don't bring this shit here.
 
I don't buy an intense back and forth between NPD management and a JPMorgan employee. Just doesn't seem plausible that you'd continue to post numbers after you were found out, especially if they confronted your employer. Maybe it's true, just doesn't pass the smell test to me, so I'll just back off since obviously I can't prove anything either way and a mod hasn't verified the post.

I've personally had the NPD threats, I have no reason to doubt this story. Part of the reason I never went public with where I used to work was to ensure anything I post here never got back to my workplace.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
MOM January-to-February increases/drops (in %) in the past few years

2010

January | February | % MOM change

PlayStation 2 41,600 | 101,900 | 145%
PlayStation 3 276,900 | 360,100 | 30%
PSP 100,100 | 133,400 | 33.27%
Xbox 360 332,800 | 422,000 | 26.8%
Wii 465,800 | 397,900 | (14.6%)
Nintendo DS 422,200 | 613,200 | 45.24%

2011

January | February | % MOM change

Xbox 360 381,000 | 535,000 | 40.42%
Wii 319,000 | 454,000 | 42.32%
PS3 267,000 | 403,000 | 50.94%

While there are reliable DS and PSP numbers for February 2011, I didn't find anything confirming the leaked January numbers; that's why I didn't put them in the mix

2012

January | February | % MOM change

360 270,000 | 426,000 | 57.78%
3DS 171,000* | 262,000 | 53.22%
WII 152,000* | 228,000 | 50%
PS3 190,000 | 360,000 | 89.95%
NDS 77,000* | 135,000 | 75.32%

* = extrapolated by math

2013

Note: January was a 5-weeks month in 2013

January | February | % MOM weekly average change

Xbox 360 281,000 | 302,000 | 34.34%
PS3 200,000 | 263,000 | 64.375%
3DS 145,000 | 190,000 | 63.79%
Wii U 57,000 | 66,000 | 44.74%
PSV 35,000 | 38,000 | 35.71%

2014

January | February | % MOM change

PS4 271,000 | 269,000 | (0.64%)
Xbox One 141,000 | 258,000 | 82.98%
3DS 97,000 | 151,000-156,000 | 55.67-60.82%
PS3 53,500 | 103,000 | 92.52%
Wii U 49,000 | 82,500 | 68.37%
360 48,500 | 114,000 | 135.05%
Vita 17,000 | 24,000 | 41.18%

If there's anything wrong, fell free to correct me.
 

Dodecagon

works for a research lab making 6 figures
I've personally had the NPD threats, I have no reason to doubt this story. Part of the reason I never went public with where I used to work was to ensure anything I post here never got back to my workplace.

Well, all things considered, NPD seems pretty lenient. I guess they'd rather threaten employers and employees than lose a customer.
 
Please tell me you are calling bullshit on NPD being assholes and not that Aqua is making all that shit up.
Nah, the entire story about being supposedly reamed out regarding leaks. Removing yourself from GAF thanks to the publicity, and then turning around and saying "you can still find leaks at the Secret Place" like this account isn't being watched like a hawk. If her social media accounts were being pulled, especially at a place like JP Morgan, they would have been shut down immediately. None of this 'let me get a last goodbye in' attention-seeking nonsense. The holes in this story are large enough to drive a lorry through.

Let me as clear as possible: I don't believe a single word in that Tom Cruise manifesto. Nice tale, though.
 

Kayant

Member
:(

Damn i can't even... I get them being so anal about leaks because of how much they charge for it but holy shit that's sounds scary as fuck.

Thank God you're able to keep your job which is the most important thing.

Take care and good luck.

+1 on the secret base if we can find it :p actually surprised they are permitting that after everything.

Hope creamsugar is ok.

Nah, the entire story about being supposedly reamed out regarding leaks. Removing yourself from GAF thanks to the publicity, and then turning around and saying "you can still find leaks at the Secret Place" like this account isn't being watched like a hawk. If her social media accounts were being pulled, especially at a place like JP Morgan, they would have been shut down immediately. None of this 'let me get a last goodbye in' attention-seeking nonsense. The holes in this story are large enough to drive a lorry through.

Let me as clear as possible: I don't believe a single word in that Tom Cruise manifesto. Nice tale, though.

Sigh. Not this shit again.
 
Goodbye Aqua... you were a very valuable member of this community and it will be lessor of a place in your departure. Thank you for your contributions over the years and being the Waifu Gaf needed even when we didn't deserve you^^
 

jimi_dini

Member
Nah, the entire story about being supposedly reamed out regarding leaks. Removing yourself from GAF thanks to the publicity, and then turning around and saying "you can still find leaks at the Secret Place" like this account isn't being watched like a hawk.

I have to agree. The post is really strange.

"And a while ago, they found out who I was and confronted me / JPMorgan Chase directly. It was really nasty at that point."

"They're giving ultimatums. And to be honest, my job is more valuable to me than anything else."

"To anyone else who leaks NPD data on GAF, watch your backs. The NPD Group is becoming increasingly vicious, and I am their latest casualty."

"And, NPD Group-permitting, I will continue to post leaks at the super-secret base (for those in the know)."

So wait, they know who Aquamarine is and set ultimatums (which means they would monitor the account). But they won't care when the last post contains "I will continue to leak". I mean what? This doesn't make sense at all. And what does "NPD Group-permitting" mean? When NPD Group allows leaks to occur?!?!? But they are vicious? I don't understand it at all. It's really weird.

I want to say "Goodbye Aquamarine" as well anyway. Whatever happened.
 

RexNovis

Banned

Wow Aqua I really had no idea how difficult your situation at work had become. I'm sad to see you go as I have always looked forward to your posts and thoughts in these sales threads. As I was reading your post I couldn't help but think of Long and Winding Road by Xavier Naidoo.

I have to leave and take my coat
It seems I'm kept in writing mode
With a lot of riddles to decode
Life's a long and winding
Life's a long and winding road

I wish you all the best in your pursuits and wherever your road may lead you Aqua you'll always have a home here. GAF won't be the same without you.
 

Valentus

Member
I will press F 100 times in your honor aqua. I dont participate very much in sales-age but i lurk pretty much and your posts are so informative, not just about the numbers, but the data itself.

We will miss you.

P.D1: I wanna be member of secret-aqua-club too

P.D2: Too all the guys that months ago attacked aqua for being and "attention hoe", finally you got what you wanted.
 
Guys, now that Aqua can't defend herself as she's already banned I don't think you should start questioning her about this now, it's kind unfair.
 

vpance

Member
Aqua's mistake was say where she work, it's easier to be identified. Anyway, thank you for everything aqua, we will miss you.

I think she revealed her workplace after the first incident, so they already knew.

She must have been above the law so to speak, in some ways, as a high level JPM employee and customer of NPD group. It must have been an awkward situation.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
So wait, they know who Aquamarine is and set ultimatums (which means they would monitor the account). But they won't care when the last post contains "I will continue to leak". I mean what? This doesn't make sense at all. And what does "NPD Group-permitting" mean? When NPD Group allows leaks to occur?!?!? But they are vicious? I don't understand it at all. It's really weird.

NPD has to draw strangely arbitrary lines to keep their business model going, so it's not that far a stretch. What's the point in paying them for numbers if you can't use them in limited ways? Being able to share them and inferences drawn from them with a limited audience is part of what makes subscribing to the information worthwhile in the first place. So you can't ban that outright without losing all of your customers. They're stuck trying to limit disclosure to the public instead, which is where the forum becomes a clear violation they can clamp down on.

Presuming they don't know what other channels Aquamarine has in mind makes it impossible to claim any specific infringement. It's not like they can claim they need to see all private correspondence without pissing off their subscribers. So while it seems like Aqua is courting more trouble it's also obvious he likes to irritate the NPD at every opportunity so this is consistent, too.
 
.....none of those 3 work in retail

however, The Shogun (Gamestop), Abdiel (Best Buy), and Cornbread78 (Walmart) do
Ah good save, good save. Keep forgetting Abdiel's name sometimes, I almost want to spell it as "Abedail" :S.

I don't work in retail.
Yeah sorry about that x3; I remember reading about you mentioning that in another post in another NPD thread (maybe the last one?), I slipped up in proofreading before posting.

I figure you'd be a shoe-in if she's selecting any people by chance, you seem to know your shit regarding sales.

Am I the last one giving out some number /retail hints?

Something I missed? Like is it time to go dark too?
There's still Creamsugar I guess.
I hope
.
 

crinale

Member
Oh no Aqua!!!, now who's going to shine the light?... don't wanna have to rely on PR spin... :(

Meh, this industry disgusts me where they try to nickel and dime you for every little thing, release broken unfinished products with expensive DLC and season-passes on empty promises. Where youtubers/people on twitter are way more popular than game-developers. To me it feels like the focus of those most involved/in the spotlight is all about money. Its a shame because numbers were always widely provided 6 years back. It wouldnt be to far off to guess some game-company or a combination of companys have urged NPD and the like to not share numbers in any form with the general public because it may harm their pr.
Yeah I'm guessing that's the real reason some people want to stop NPD numbers from getting leaked.
 

Road

Member
Sad situation about Aquamarine. Dealing with private information is difficult. It's not just NPD information, but also related to the job description. David Gibson was another example, who was told to stop talking about the Nintendo investor meetings. Information is I guess the most valuable thing on the stock market.

Hopefully others won't be scared, you just have to establish a word quota per month. =P
 

orochi91

Member
Am I the last one giving out some number /retail hints?

Something I missed? Like is it time to go dark too?

I'm thinking Best Buy and Gamestop aren't as militant in their zeal, with regards to retail leaks; at least not the same way NPD are.

You should be safe ;)
 

DaBoss

Member
Well, shit. I haven't participated in sales threads for a while due to reasons, but I did occasionally read through them and enjoyed reading your insightful posts (as well as some other members').

I hope everything goes well and wish you the best for your future, Aquamarine.
 
Wow Aqua's gone for real this time.

Sad day in so many ways and only slightly to due with the loss of sales-gaf contributions
 
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