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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Really?
I'm not an expert, but I heard that brands like Apple or McDonald are doing really well in Japan.

As i said, its only shown in certain industries really, because a lot of the other ones are obviously far more mainstream commodities. As you go into more specific things like game consoles, a traditionally japanese insulated arena, it becomes much more of a defensive reaction. It was the same reaction MS got from mainstream Japanese devs and publishers when they were just starting out, trying to jump in on 'their' turf.

Its only super multiplied by how utterly insane the game industry wars are in Japan. You can't go two messages without hearing about ninbuta's or cockroaches.
 

RexNovis

Banned
[PS4] 288K
[3DS] 305K
[XB1] 247K
[WIU] 78K

As i said, its only shown in certain industries really, because a lot of the other ones are obviously far more mainstream commodities. As you go into more specific things like game consoles, a traditionally japanese insulated arena, it becomes much more of a defensive reaction. It was the same reaction MS got from mainstream Japanese devs and publishers when they were just starting out, trying to jump in on 'their' turf.

Its only super multiplied by how utterly insane the game industry wars are in Japan. You can't go two messages without hearing about ninbuta's or cockroaches.

I really don't buy this arguement for video games. IMHO it boils down more to the type of games offered on the Japanese developed systems. They are more appealing to japanese gamers. Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, BioHazard, Tales, Persona all these games have avid followings in Japan and all have heavy association with a specific brand so of course the gamers who want to play these games (which constitute the vast majority of gamers in Japan) are going to buy they systems they know will have them. It has absolutely nothing to do with racism or nationalism.

That's not to say they dont exist in Japan. They most certainly do. Of that I can assure you without a shadow of a doubt having lived in Japan for over 2 years now. But their influence doesnt expand to console purchasing habits its merely a matter of consumers knowing what they want out of a product and purchasing the one that best fits that.
 

goomba

Banned
Just thought i'd leave this here.

Shows cumulative shipments worldwide for each year of the last 3 console generations.

My predictions are the green X's.

shipped_zpsllsk31mb.jpg

Thanks for this, for all the hype about ps4's success, the console market is clearly in decline from last gen. I Also think disruptive vr tech will eat into it more.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Thanks for this, for all the hype about ps4's success, the console market is clearly in decline from last gen. I Also think disruptive vr tech will eat into it more.

PS4 is doing very well. The decline is mainly due to Nintendo (at least thus far).

Went from "better than PS4 sales" with the Wii -to- "worse than GameCube sales" with the Wii U.
 

Javin98

Banned
Without further ado, here are Pachter's USA NPD predictions for February 2015:

PS4: 200K
XB1: 168K
WIU: 100K
Well, that's quite low. Patcher being conservative this month after vastly overestimating sales last month, I see. At least he has the PS4 on top this time.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Well if a Xbox1 version of Japanese AAA game sells like 30% of PS4 version then they should still make it multiplat IMO. The question is how far the ratio should be slanted toward PS4 version to make X1 version unprofitable.

People here are just curious how certain titles are going to perform now that MS doesn't have the massive lead in the US they had last generation when it was a lot easier for them to match sales.
 

allan-bh

Member
I'm expecting 90% ish for Type-0. Better for FFXV but I'm not sure how much.

I'm expecting something like that too.

If FF XV sell badly on Xbox One, S-E and other may even give up of some games for the console. I believe Xbox One will maintain sales to comfortably receive western titles, but with japanese games the situation is different.
 
I'm expecting something like that too.

If FF XV sell badly on Xbox One, S-E and other may even give up of some games for the console. I believe Xbox One will maintain sales to comfortably receive western titles, but with japanese games the situation is different.

I bet Konami is looking at the sales data of other Japanese franchises, to see if its even worth releasing Silent Hills on Xbox One, or just try and make a deal with Sony for exclusivity.
 

BadWolf

Member
I bet Konami is looking at the sales data of other Japanese franchises, to see if its even worth releasing Silent Hills on Xbox One, or just try and make a deal with Sony for exclusivity.

Yeah as time goes on it seems JP games exclusivity is becoming a bigger and bigger possibility.

Wonder if they will try something with MGR2? Probably not but MGR1 was Japan exclusive on PS3.
 

Elandyll

Banned
http://www.ign.com/articles/2015/03/09/halo-master-chief-collection-xbox-one-bundle-announced

It will be interesting to see the effect that this bundle will have on sales for March (might depress them a bit for now like new bundles announced ahead of time tend to do).

Aquamarine ...

Oh no :(

So sorry that it had to end Aqua. At least I'm relieved to hear that your position is not in jeopardy.
I don't mean to talk for anybody else, so I will just say that I appreciated immensely all the efforts and the risks you were taking for participating in sales discussions.

You will be missed, a lot.

And you will always be, at least imo, the best Waifu GAF could have ever hoped for.

/salute
 
PS4 is doing very well. The decline is mainly due to Nintendo (at least thus far).

Went from "better than PS4 sales" with the Wii -to- "worse than GameCube sales" with the Wii U.

Problem is, this generation is going to have a hard time matching even the 6th generation's sales - which add up to around 200 million when only counting the Gamecube, Xbox, and PS2. If the PS4 hypothetically manages to sell 100 million, the Xbone manages to sell 50 million, and the Wii U flattens out at around 15, that would be 165. 35 million short of the 6th generation's numbers. So even compared to that generation the console market is in significant decline, mainly because we're not going to have a repeat of the PS2's insane success this gen. Its not just Nintendo.

Edit: Holy shit, Aquamarine :((( Noooo
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
wow... that is indeed very unfortunate news.

Your posts have been so useful to many of us here and it's going to be really odd not seeing you on these forums.

This really sucks that you're ultimately being forced to delete your GAF account but fully understandable why you're complying.

All the best Aqua. :)

(I'm now going to sit in the corner and cry)
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
;____________;

No, Aqua :(

I'm so sorry that it has come to this. Very, very unfortunate.
Let me say that you gave to this community an unbelievably contribution, something that we will all miss: all those datas from the past, all those leaks, all those well-based analysis. You've been a great poster overall, and it's sad to see you forced to go away from here.

We will all miss you, Aqua. Best wishes for your future.

- Marco.
 

QaaQer

Member
:(
bye aqua. all the best.

to whom it may concern: any chance of a super secret invite?

edit: and marco is right, you have made an unbelievable contribution. You have been my fav poster, fwiiw.
 
I'm not even sure if a 'super-secret base' is a good idea. People are so hungry for numbers, all it takes is one guy to tell someone not in the base and then they're everywhere on the internet.

I really don't understand why NPD is doing this. What's the point of lists with no numbers? Its so dumb and pointless.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
If i have to put my 2 cents i will say that apart from Wii, Kinect also pushed sizable units and helped 360 reached to the numbers it manages in the end. So my personal opinion is that after the recent GDC and many reviewer praising PS4 VR and MS also following Holo Lens?, things can change. I agree that VR is coming on PC from other vendors and may be earlier, but console can be the biggest beneficiary if VR is easy to setup and provide a unique experience.

But definitely some exciting times ahead.

I agree with that. And I do expect extension products (VR) from both Sony and Microsoft to increase sales later into the generation but I really don't expect it to have the same spike as we saw with the Wii. Perhaps a similar spike to say the 360.

My 150m+ prediction factors VR into it but then again it's such a hard thing to predict that we could end up with much higher sales thanks to VR.

Thanks for sharing. Do you think there's any potential for the Morpheus to bite into the Wii market? It looks like something that market would eat up.

Yes. Even the PS4 itself has casual users buying it thanks to the mass appeal of the console coming out of a very long previous generate. Will the PS4 sell like the wii? No. It won't sell that fast, but I do believe the PS4 will continue selling (in the same way the PS3 has over the years) and could eventually catch up or even outsell the Wii should VR take off.

Thanks for this, for all the hype about ps4's success, the console market is clearly in decline from last gen. I Also think disruptive vr tech will eat into it more.

Well we have to remember that the Nintendo Wii was a huge success among semi casual, casual and gamers right from the word go. The fad lasted around 5 years and many people who bought a Wii also bought PS3's and 360's. In fact the Kinect and Move were seen as extensions of the console market as well. Also last generation was a lot longer and saw high sales late into the lifecycle due to lack of new consoles.

Sure I agree that this gen won't sell anywhere near as much as last gen and that the console market is in decline somewhat but the PS4 has been hugely successful itself and we're seeing a lot of core, semi casual and casual buyers go out and buy a PS4 early into the generation.
 
No not sales waifu:(

Going to miss your insightful posts in sales threads and of course NPD threads. Not going to be the same without you, best of luck and keep lurking.
 
Wow, so sorry Aquamarine, you were always one of the best, most insightful posters here, and we'll all be worse off without you.
 
Good night, sweet prince.

[3DS] 299K
[PS4] 301K
[WIU] 64K
[XB1] 256K

Kirby and the Rainbow Curse is going to be a colossal failure. I can see it now. :(
 

Bruno MB

Member
Thank you very much Aquamarine for all your contribution to this community, you will be dearly missed :(

Sales-Age has lost an invaluable member.

Out of respect for her I have decided not to participate anymore in any NPD thread, including this one.

Edit: After thinking about it for a while, I will keep joining the prediction league because I enjoy it a lot, but I will avoid monthly NPD threads.
 

On Demand

Banned
Anyone want to PM this secret base? I would love to keep following her.

It's crazy how strict and secretive NPD has become. They use to be so open with everything. What made them change? Developers and Publishers don't like sharing anymore? Sony, MS, Nintendo? With the movie industry happily telling us everything about how much a movie made- budgets, loss, profits etc, there's even sites dedicated to this, the game industry is looking pretty damn selfish not wanting us to know how their products are selling every month. Only talking when it benefits them in a PR sense.


Fuck right off thank you.
 
So long, GAF. It's been a wild ride.


- Aquamarine

Damn Aqua, sorry to lose you to this way. We never talked directly but I always found your posts very insightful and intelligent especially in NPD threads.

Thanks for your contributions and you'll be sorely missed here on Gaf
 
This makes me sad, Aquamarine.
I liked the information you gave, but I loved the explanations, the patience you had with dummies (like me) and the good humour. This is something I will really miss.
Hope you will do fine in your job and stay tuned to this forum.

NPD-clows... pfff
 
It's really shame how in video game industry we get less and less sales information each year from publishers, NPD, Gfk etc. =/ In movie industry we get worldwide box office each fricking week... Well at least we have still weekly Japanese sales. Godspeed Aqua.
 
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