If the PS4 really does go down to $299 this fall ms may be desperate enough to do it...
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February 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
If the PS4 really does go down to $299 this fall ms may be desperate enough to do it...
MasterSheen
Member
[3DS] 260k
[PS4] 270k
[WIU] 84k
[XB1] 200k
[PS4] 270k
[WIU] 84k
[XB1] 200k
That's what I'm thinking as well. Halo 5 will replace the COD bundle this year (I'm assuming PS4 will have a COD BLOP 3 bundle this holiday) and Tomb Raider will be this years Unity.
My guess is that there will be no COD bundle this year so they will have to push Halo 5.
Just thought i'd leave this here.
Shows cumulative shipments worldwide for each year of the last 3 console generations.
My predictions are the green X's.
Nice graph. What makes you think the gen will slow down like gen 6 rather than linerally increase like Gen 7? I don't disagree but would like to hear your thoughts. My own thoughts are that steam pc's coupled with new VR headsets are going to eat into the console market soon. I know some might not agree but I'm willing to put money on it (place bets now)
Kenzodielocke
Banned
[3DS] 280k
[PS4] 230k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 195k
my first prediction.
[PS4] 230k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 195k
my first prediction.
Close to 80 million of Wii sales were from a demographic that had never bought consoles before and dropped the waggle fad for mobile. Gen 8 has no chance to look like Gen 7 unless mobile and tablet gaming is included.
Well first of all, i'll probably be wrong haha.
But the reason is pretty much covered in the post above. Gen 7 was fuelled by the explosive launch of the Wii and casual users buying the console. A number of semi casual users who bought the Wii also bought the PS3/360 and so numbers were easily inflated early on as well as late in the console generation (thanks to Kinect and Move as an extension to the consoles) and so we end up with around 280 million units sold LTD for Gen 7.
Whilst the PS4 is selling absolutely crazy, it's at the point now where it can no longer keep up and outsell the Wii (aligned launches). It's fairly clear and I think everyone can agree that whilst the PS4 has a big casual appeal it'll fall behind the Wii in sales. The Xbox One is not selling as well as the PS4 and compared to last gen it's about on par with the PS3 at this point in it's life. So with the PS4 hauling the majority of sales (but still less than Wii) and the Xbox One selling similar to the PS3, the Wii U is selling quite literally nothing. Therefore we may as well call this a two horse race in Gen 8 where as Gen 7 saw pretty much equal sales between PS3/360 and an extra 20m sales to Wii.
So 150m+ is what I think this gen will end on fuelled by a large PS4 audience and a moderate Xbox One audience. Again Wii U is dead. As this is likely going to be a shorter generation and the PS4 likely won't have legs like the PS2 (due to front loaded sales now + availability in more regions now + Sony not messing up PS5) I don't think it'll sell as well as the PS2 and match Gen 6 sales.
Some of what I said above may not make sense so ask me to clarify as sometimes my English is terrible.
Amazon.com, PS4 v.s. One v.s. Wii U (+3DS)
As of March 8th, 23:15 GMT
Final Fantasy Type-0 HD
PS4 ($59.96) - 4th
One ($59.96) - 110th
PS4 ($399) - 5th
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D ($39.96) - 7th
One AC bundle ($346.95; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 10th
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U ($52.84) - 17th
Mario Party 10 | amiibo Bundle ($59.96) - 23rd | Standard ($49.96) - 42nd
Bloodborne | Standard ($59.96) - 25th | Collectors Edition ($79.96) - 32nd
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate ($44.90; sold by third party) - 27th
Pokémon Omega Ruby ($33) - 28th
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
One ($36.80) - 29th
PS4 ($39.71) - 31st
Grand Theft Auto V
PS4 ($52.88) - 35th
One ($51.48) - 39th
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS ($37.11) - 37th
NBA 2K15
One ($39.25) - 38th
PS4 ($39.12) - 67th
Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition
PS4 ($29.99) - 40th
One ($29.99) - 59th
Pokémon Alha Sapphire ($34.68) - 48th
Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($38.99) - 49th
Dragon Ball: Ghost Nappa Edition
PS4 ($65.81; only 1 left in stock; sold by third party) - 55th
One ($59.98; only 16 left in stock; sold by third party) - 141st
Wii U Deluxe Set Mario Bundle ($293.99; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 56th
Dragon Age: Inquisition
PS4 ($39.99) - 58th
One ($39.99) - 123rd
Kirby and the Aardman Curse ($39.96) - 66th
Assassin's Creed: Parity
PS4 ($36.99; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 68th
One ($26.63; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 146th
Mario Kart 8 ($58.95) - 71st
Dying Light
One ($49.99) - 72nd
PS4 ($49.99) - 99th
Destiny
One ($38.96) - 76th
PS4 ($39.99) - 117th
Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor
One ($30.77) - 92nd
PS4 ($42.05) - 142nd
Battlefield Hardline
One | Deluxe Editon ($69.96) - 100th | Standard ($59.96) - 211st
PS4 | Standard ($59.96) - 125th | Deluxe Edition ($69.96) - 132nd
Other recent / upcoming releases
MLB15 The Show | 10th Anniversary ($69.99) - 108th | Standard ($59.96) - 136th
Devil May Cry Definitive Edition
PS4 ($39.96) - 114th
One ($39.99) - 560th
Borderlands: The Handsome Collection
PS4 ($59.96) - 120th
One ($59.96) - 189th
GUNSHOT FADE TO BLACK?!? 1886 ($59.96) - 163rd
Codename B.O.M.B.A. - Bombing On the Market a Bit like Advance wars ($39.96) - 316th
Evolve
One ($52; only 2 left in stock; sold by third party) - 354th
PS4 ($59.99) - 496th
Resident Evil: Revelations 2
PS4 ($39.96) - 368th
One ($39.96) - 1,402nd
Dead or Alive 5 Last Round
PS4 ($39.36) - 806th
One ($39.96) - 2,496th
Possible indicators of New Nintendo 3DS's performance for Amazon.com?
Nintendo 3DS/3DS XL AC Adaptor ($9.99) - 25th
HORI Screen Protective Filter for New 3DS XL ($8.99) - 36th
Xenoblade Chronicles 3D ($39.99) - 91st
Note: This is the hourly chart, the one changing every hour of every day, not the one relative to the whole past week / month / year. While weekly / monthly charts allow us to see how things have been up to now, hourly charts could help us in seeing what could be the incoming sales trends. But Amazon.com charts still need to be filtered and rightfully weigthed, you can't take literally everything they say as the exact truth
As of March 8th, 23:15 GMT
Final Fantasy Type-0 HD
PS4 ($59.96) - 4th
One ($59.96) - 110th
PS4 ($399) - 5th
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D ($39.96) - 7th
One AC bundle ($346.95; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 10th
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U ($52.84) - 17th
Mario Party 10 | amiibo Bundle ($59.96) - 23rd | Standard ($49.96) - 42nd
Bloodborne | Standard ($59.96) - 25th | Collectors Edition ($79.96) - 32nd
Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate ($44.90; sold by third party) - 27th
Pokémon Omega Ruby ($33) - 28th
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
One ($36.80) - 29th
PS4 ($39.71) - 31st
Grand Theft Auto V
PS4 ($52.88) - 35th
One ($51.48) - 39th
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS ($37.11) - 37th
NBA 2K15
One ($39.25) - 38th
PS4 ($39.12) - 67th
Diablo III: Ultimate Evil Edition
PS4 ($29.99) - 40th
One ($29.99) - 59th
Pokémon Alha Sapphire ($34.68) - 48th
Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($38.99) - 49th
Dragon Ball: Ghost Nappa Edition
PS4 ($65.81; only 1 left in stock; sold by third party) - 55th
One ($59.98; only 16 left in stock; sold by third party) - 141st
Wii U Deluxe Set Mario Bundle ($293.99; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 56th
Dragon Age: Inquisition
PS4 ($39.99) - 58th
One ($39.99) - 123rd
Kirby and the Aardman Curse ($39.96) - 66th
Assassin's Creed: Parity
PS4 ($36.99; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 68th
One ($26.63; sold by third party and fulfilled by Amazon) - 146th
Mario Kart 8 ($58.95) - 71st
Dying Light
One ($49.99) - 72nd
PS4 ($49.99) - 99th
Destiny
One ($38.96) - 76th
PS4 ($39.99) - 117th
Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor
One ($30.77) - 92nd
PS4 ($42.05) - 142nd
Battlefield Hardline
One | Deluxe Editon ($69.96) - 100th | Standard ($59.96) - 211st
PS4 | Standard ($59.96) - 125th | Deluxe Edition ($69.96) - 132nd
Other recent / upcoming releases
MLB15 The Show | 10th Anniversary ($69.99) - 108th | Standard ($59.96) - 136th
Devil May Cry Definitive Edition
PS4 ($39.96) - 114th
One ($39.99) - 560th
Borderlands: The Handsome Collection
PS4 ($59.96) - 120th
One ($59.96) - 189th
GUNSHOT FADE TO BLACK?!? 1886 ($59.96) - 163rd
Codename B.O.M.B.A. - Bombing On the Market a Bit like Advance wars ($39.96) - 316th
Evolve
One ($52; only 2 left in stock; sold by third party) - 354th
PS4 ($59.99) - 496th
Resident Evil: Revelations 2
PS4 ($39.96) - 368th
One ($39.96) - 1,402nd
Dead or Alive 5 Last Round
PS4 ($39.36) - 806th
One ($39.96) - 2,496th
Possible indicators of New Nintendo 3DS's performance for Amazon.com?
Nintendo 3DS/3DS XL AC Adaptor ($9.99) - 25th
HORI Screen Protective Filter for New 3DS XL ($8.99) - 36th
Xenoblade Chronicles 3D ($39.99) - 91st
Note: This is the hourly chart, the one changing every hour of every day, not the one relative to the whole past week / month / year. While weekly / monthly charts allow us to see how things have been up to now, hourly charts could help us in seeing what could be the incoming sales trends. But Amazon.com charts still need to be filtered and rightfully weigthed, you can't take literally everything they say as the exact truth
Soultaker0220
Member
[3DS] 265k
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 185k
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 185k
The Last One
Member
Type-0 already in 4th nine days before it releases. Thats good news!
Aquamarine
Member
I'm looking forward to seeing how utterly abysmal Type-0 XBO sales will be in the NPD report.
I expect it to be bad. Then unless FFXV surprises and does massively better I expect KHIII for the XBO to quietly be taken out back and shot.
CosmicQueso
Member
Guess someone isn't a believer in Guitar Hero and Rock Band bringing back the casual magic.
Aquamarine
Member
Pachter has released his February 2015 USA NPD predictions.
Please read the Q&A before posting. Thanks.
Q&A:
Q: "LOL so Pachter gets paid to make stupid video game predictions? Where can I sign up?
A: Actually, Pachter's job is to release complex, thorough, and intelligent company analyses and evaluate whether or not they are a good buy for investors. Pachter primarily focuses around companies in the digital entertainment and retail entertainment sectors, like AMC, Netflix, Amazon, and Nintendo.
Pachter does an amazing job with his frequent, lengthy reports to clients and definitely, 100% deserves every penny Wedbush Securities pays him. Wedbush Securities isn't idiotic. They wouldn't have kept Pachter around for decades if he wasn't really good at what he does.
Pachter frequently discusses video game predictions in mainstream media and he releases USA NPD predictions to clients. However, these predictions are only made because Pachter likes to go the extra mile and it's fun to predict video game sales. Please remember that these NPD predictions are NOT Pachter's job, and the amount of work he performs in his real job is extraordinary enough to warrant his high salary. He works really, really hard for Wedbush, and that is chronically underappreciated.
Q: "Should we trust Pachter?"
A: Pachter subscribes to NPD (so he has the full spectrum of historical data available to him), and he conducts a variety of small-scale channel checks in the market. Basically, Pachter calls up various store managers and asks how the retail market has been doing. He is IN NO WAY an authoritative source of video game sales or an "insider."
GAF insiders in the physical retail market have the following checkmark as their tag:
These GAFfers (like Abdiel, The Shogun, and Cornbread78) frequently provide us with sell-through trends for the USA market that are generally at a larger scale than what Pachter analyses. Therefore, there is no reason to trust Pachter over any other intelligent GAFfer's prediction. He is essentially another NeoGAF poster in terms of credibility.
Q: "Should I create a new thread about this where we make fun of Pachter ad nauseam?"
A: Unless you're comfortable making an "Aquamarine's JPMorgan Chase NPD Predictions" thread, you shouldn't be comfortable making a "Pachter's NPD Predictions" thread. If an ignorant website picks up his predictions, please don't parrot them into a new thread.
The level of discourse in new threads diminishes greatly from propagation of Pachter misinformation and mockery. Anything intelligent that could be said about Pachter is going to be said here by Sales-Age regulars.
Here is a fantastic example of the low-quality nonsense that rises to the surface when we make dedicated threads:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=911723
Without further ado, here are Pachter's USA NPD predictions for February 2015:
PS4: 200K
XB1: 168K
WIU: 100K
Please read the Q&A before posting. Thanks.
Q&A:
Q: "LOL so Pachter gets paid to make stupid video game predictions? Where can I sign up?
A: Actually, Pachter's job is to release complex, thorough, and intelligent company analyses and evaluate whether or not they are a good buy for investors. Pachter primarily focuses around companies in the digital entertainment and retail entertainment sectors, like AMC, Netflix, Amazon, and Nintendo.
Pachter does an amazing job with his frequent, lengthy reports to clients and definitely, 100% deserves every penny Wedbush Securities pays him. Wedbush Securities isn't idiotic. They wouldn't have kept Pachter around for decades if he wasn't really good at what he does.
Pachter frequently discusses video game predictions in mainstream media and he releases USA NPD predictions to clients. However, these predictions are only made because Pachter likes to go the extra mile and it's fun to predict video game sales. Please remember that these NPD predictions are NOT Pachter's job, and the amount of work he performs in his real job is extraordinary enough to warrant his high salary. He works really, really hard for Wedbush, and that is chronically underappreciated.
Q: "Should we trust Pachter?"
A: Pachter subscribes to NPD (so he has the full spectrum of historical data available to him), and he conducts a variety of small-scale channel checks in the market. Basically, Pachter calls up various store managers and asks how the retail market has been doing. He is IN NO WAY an authoritative source of video game sales or an "insider."
GAF insiders in the physical retail market have the following checkmark as their tag:
These GAFfers (like Abdiel, The Shogun, and Cornbread78) frequently provide us with sell-through trends for the USA market that are generally at a larger scale than what Pachter analyses. Therefore, there is no reason to trust Pachter over any other intelligent GAFfer's prediction. He is essentially another NeoGAF poster in terms of credibility.
Q: "Should I create a new thread about this where we make fun of Pachter ad nauseam?"
A: Unless you're comfortable making an "Aquamarine's JPMorgan Chase NPD Predictions" thread, you shouldn't be comfortable making a "Pachter's NPD Predictions" thread. If an ignorant website picks up his predictions, please don't parrot them into a new thread.
The level of discourse in new threads diminishes greatly from propagation of Pachter misinformation and mockery. Anything intelligent that could be said about Pachter is going to be said here by Sales-Age regulars.
Here is a fantastic example of the low-quality nonsense that rises to the surface when we make dedicated threads:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=911723
Without further ado, here are Pachter's USA NPD predictions for February 2015:
PS4: 200K
XB1: 168K
WIU: 100K
SuperSonic1305
Member
Yikes. As if Japanese devs need any more reasons to just abandon the Xbox altogether.
Welfare
Member
NO! I need my anime fighting games!
Aquamarine
Member
Thank god he sobered up quickly after the January 2015 fiasco.
I'm really starting to wonder whether or not we'll reach a point where Japanese developers won't even bother.
Obviously Western developers will always support the Xbox One, as they should. But is it worth it for Japanese developers when Japanese Xbox One sales (HW + SW) have flatlined and the market for Japanese Xbox games is tiny?
The smal to mid-sized ones I don't see any chance of an XBO version. The difference is this gen the large ones they got last gen have a chance to disappear as well depending on how it plays out you could see large japanese games going PS4 with a delayed release on PC rather then any release on the XBO.
TheCarrotKiller
Banned
Nearly missed this month. Difficult though, should be fun to see how much The Order and n3DS contributed to the sales.
[3DS] 301K
[PS4] 289K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 232K
[3DS] 301K
[PS4] 289K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 232K
Gamemaster_ca_2003
Member
[3DS] 310K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 155K
[PS3] 25K
[PSV] 25K
[X360] 60k
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 155K
[PS3] 25K
[PSV] 25K
[X360] 60k
Considering how even with the 360's massive lead in the US last generation, the PS3 versions of FF games still held 60% or more of total sales... yeah I expect the gap here to be more extreme. 70% or more? We'll see.
I'm expecting 90% ish for Type-0. Better for FFXV but I'm not sure how much.
If i have to put my 2 cents i will say that apart from Wii, Kinect also pushed sizable units and helped 360 reached to the numbers it manages in the end. So my personal opinion is that after the recent GDC and many reviewer praising PS4 VR and MS also following Holo Lens?, things can change. I agree that VR is coming on PC from other vendors and may be earlier, but console can be the biggest beneficiary if VR is easy to setup and provide a unique experience.
But definitely some exciting times ahead.
Anyone remember what the MGS5: Ground Zeroes gap was?
Aquamarine
Member
What was the split among all platforms?
Aquamarine
Member
Yeah I was looking all I found was some sketchy site claiming Konami announced it it was 3:1 PS4/XBO for the quarter it launched in with no sources. So that's better then what I had
Thanks. Even though Metal Gear is western-centric it managed to pull 72% of total sales on PlayStation if we factor in the last generation versions at that time. Given Final Fantasy is still very much a Japanese game and the current rankings with other Japanese-heavy titles on Amazon and what others in retail have said here on GAF the Type-0 difference will be an interesting one to watch.
What strikes me is within the last week or so Square Enix has attempted to remind people the Xbone version exists so maybe they're not happy with the lower pre-orders in the western markets at the moment.
I found a more trustworthy source for that info of 3:1 for the quarter. So potentially even more Playstation heavy following launch
Edit: or you know it includes japan and europe. I'd need to see to the report to tell.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...r-solid-on-ps4-triples-xbox-one-version-sales
Thanks for sharing. Do you think there's any potential for the Morpheus to bite into the Wii market? It looks like something that market would eat up.
Chezzymann
Member
I think its because the console sales are significantly frontloaded due to consumers being hungry for 8th gen consoles after the 7th gen going on for so long.
Edit: Also, of course, the Wii market leaving means its going to go back to around 6th gen numbers, but probably a little less since we won't get another PS2 most likely and the Wii U is flopping hard.
hmm, he's more conservative this month
Only if its cheap enough. I dont think that the audience that doesnt want to get over a 400$ pricepoint since the 90's would buy a gimmick that has the potential to be more expensive than 200$ And realistically, I would place entry level VR Systems with tracking and maybe even its own processor to help it achieve graphics from the 7th generation to be 300 to 400 bucks.
Nightengale
Member
Without any last gen crutch ( both for Sony and Xbox), it'd be interesting to get a decent "first glance" at how JRPGs fare split-wise.
Do you think that Xbox not having a handheld is hurting its' presence in Japan? Or, is the American that puts the Japanese market off from investing in the brand?
Nightengale
Member
Too true. But, is that because the xbox brand is tainted with the xbox one, or because Microsoft never made a push in the prime of the xbox 360 to launch a handheld?
I know the 360 sold like crap in Japan as well, but could Microsoft of improved its' standing in the Japenese market by launching a handheld sooner?
Sorry for taking the thread off topic, but with handhelds and smart phones being so popular in Japan, it just makes me wonder why Microsoft or even Sony, have never been able to make a gaming-phone like device for the japanese market. Even if it's one that sells exclusively in japan, but has Vita ports (for example) on it
There is a certain sect of racists/nationalists in Japan that equate company loyalty with country pride, and will always go with what they know and what's local. They don't mean to be malicious i'm sure, but its a bubble of thought that i've seen over all kinds of message boards. In the gaming sector its a lot worse than other sectors because it also applies to being open to many western games in general, not just western consoles like XB1.
Combine that with just cultural differences in general where a lot of people simply arent interested in the kinds of games on the system and don't see the appeal and its easy to see why it fails in Japan.
That being said, you can also rightly blame the fact that Xbox is just a US marketed brand. It doesn't do well in Europe either because its not marketed in any way that people who aren't American can get the full effect. That TV stuff doesn't matter anywhere outside of the US, and neither do half the features that arent available in many of those other countries
Supposedly Star Fox and Zelda U are to release late this year. Also when is Xenoblade Chronicles X releasing?