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[ethomaz]

I was talking about the other claim.

The WSJ stated 16M or more, so why would you think they meant 10?

Maybe you not understood what I wrote and that is probably my fault of not being native English.

The issue I find in the WSJ rumor is the probably the Nintendo 10m is already taking in account the ramp up in production... WSJ rumor thinks the ramp up is based in the 10m forecast but my issue with that is that maybe Nintendo already take in account the ramp up to forecast 10 million.

Is it more clear now? I tried to explain my first phase.

Nintendo is right now producing 600-700k units per month and they can't make inventory for holidays... so the only option they have is to ramp up the production for holidays.

Example:

Apr 700k
May 700k
Jun 700k
Jul 800k
Aug 800k
Sep 1200k
Oct 1500k
Nov 2000k
Dev 1500k
Jan 700k
Feb 700k
Mar 700k

Numbers from my ass that end up 12 million units produced... there is a ramp up even bigger than double in holiday months.

That why I says the double production is probably already accounted in the 10m forecast.

But for WSJ the double production means 2x10 = 20 million.

 

[DigitalRicket]

The third-party support so far has been pretty great, and those indie titles are moving too. If Nintendo can show off some good releases to look forward to in 2018, something like a new Animal Crossing, the exclusive port of Pokemon Stars, and a Pikmin game, then I can easily see them shipping 18 mil next year with demand to spare.

 

[Fiendcode]

Maybe you not understood what I wrote and that is probably my fault of not being native English.

The issue I find in the WSJ rumor is the probably the Nintendo 10m is already taking in account the ramp up in production... WSJ rumor thinks the ramp up is based in the 10m forecast but my issue with that is that maybe Nintendo already take in account the ramp up to forecast 10 million.

Is it more clear now? I tried to explain my first phase.

Nintendo is right now producing 600-700k units per month and they can't make inventory for holidays... so the only option they have is to ramp up the production for holidays.

Example:

Apr 700k
May 700k
Jun 700k
Jul 800k
Aug 800k
Sep 1200k
Oct 1500k
Nov 2000k
Dev 1500k
Jan 700k
Feb 700k
Mar 700k

Numbers from my ass that end up 12 million units produced... they is a ramp up even bigger than double in holiday months.

That why I says the double production is probably already accounted in the 10m forecast.

But for WSJ the double production means 2x10 = 20 million.

Except there's zero indication that the 10m forecast was already the doubled ramp up WSJ or FT heard about. Especially when both are also reporting hearing 16/18/20m figures for the FY.

The mental gymansics you're going through here pretty inspired though.

 

[Skittzo0413]

Maybe you not understood what I wrote and that is probably my fault of not being native English.

The issue I find in the WSJ rumor is the probably the Nintendo 10m is already taking in account the ramp up in production... WSJ rumor thinks the ramp up is based in the 10m forecast but my issue with that is that maybe Nintendo already take in account the ramp up to forecast 10 million.

Is it more clear now? I tried to explain my first phase.

Nintendo is right now producing 600-700k units per month and they can't make inventory for holidays... so the only option they have is to ramp up the production for holidays.

Example:

Apr 700k
May 700k
Jun 700k
Jul 800k
Aug 800k
Sep 1200k
Oct 1500k
Nov 2000k
Dev 1500k
Jan 700k
Feb 700k
Mar 700k

Numbers from my ass that end up 12 million units produced... they is a ramp up even bigger than double in holiday months.

That why I says the double production is probably already accounted in the 10m forecast.

But for WSJ the double production means 2x10 = 20 million.

The issue is the WSJ article is very specific. They don't simply claim that Nintendo increased production, they specifically claim that Nintendo doubled production from 8 million to 16 million. If they had claimed that Nintendo simply increased or doubled production and "analysts" predict that means 16 million that would be one thing, but they are confidently claiming that the new goal is 16 million produced.

So the issue with your logic is, the source claiming Nintendo increased production (WSJ) is also the same source claiming they increased production to 16m. So you can't on the one hand claim that Nintendo increased or doubled production and then on the other hand claim that they only increased production to 10 million. You'd basically be cherrypicking parts of the same WSJ report.

 

[Nostremitus]

Maybe you not understood what I wrote and that is probably my fault of not being native English.

The issue I find in the WSJ rumor is the probably the Nintendo 10m is already taking in account the ramp up in production... WSJ rumor thinks the ramp up is based in the 10m forecast but my issue with that is that maybe Nintendo already take in account the ramp up to forecast 10 million.

Is it more clear now? I tried to explain my first phase.

Nintendo is right now producing 600-700k units per month and they can't make inventory for holidays... so the only option they have is to ramp up the production for holidays.

Example:

Apr 700k
May 700k
Jun 700k
Jul 800k
Aug 800k
Sep 1200k
Oct 1500k
Nov 2000k
Dev 1500k
Jan 700k
Feb 700k
Mar 700k

Numbers from my ass that end up 12 million units produced... there is a ramp up even bigger than double in holiday months.

That why I says the double production is probably already accounted in the 10m forecast.

But for WSJ the double production means 2x10 = 20 million.

WSJ said they spoke to people in the meeting and had the actual numbers Nintendo was briefing. Nintendo stated in the briefing that it was 16M or more. So, no. There was absolutely no indication that WSJ was talking about 10M.

 

[D.Lo]

That why I says the double production is probably already accounted in the 10m forecast.

But for WSJ the double production means 2x10 = 20 million.

The original 'doubling of production to 16m' rumour was from before Nintendo's first official FY forecast.. Nintendo then announced a forecast of 10m. Most of us presume the 10m is conservative, probably up from 8m, and Nintendo will likely add 1-2m each quarter to the annual forecast so they look like they are beating forecasts each quarter by which makes shareholdrs happy.

Your claim is essentially that WSJ has misunderstood, and that they were doubling production to 10m.

This is absolutely nuts. Even after the Wii U, there is no way that in February Nintendo planned to ship only 5 million of their new shiny heavily and expensively advertised product for FY2018.

 

[ethomaz]

WSJ said they spoke to people in the meeting and had the actual numbers Nintendo was briefing. Nintendo stated in the briefing that it was 16M or more. So, no. There was absolutely no indication that WSJ was talking about 10M.

Nintendo only said 10m in the QA... sorry.

Anything WSJ is saying not come from the QA... is is probably speculation outside the interview... like when you go to coffee break and talk with somebody that give you an of the docs number.

Except there's zero indication that the 10m forecast was already the doubled ramp up WSJ or FT heard about. Especially when both are also reporting hearing 16/18/20m figures for the FY.

The mental gymansics you're going through here pretty inspired though.

Yeap I give up to be logical here... it will be fun to back to this thread next year.

 

[Fiendcode]

Yeap I give up to be logical here... it will be fun to back to this thread next year.

You gave up logic when you tried to contort WSJ's doubled production report as referencing the 10m forecast rather than the actual figures they cited (8m to 16m).

I feel like the truth is you just don't want to face any possibility Switch moves 16-20m it's first full FY and you'll twist anyway you can to rationalize that and try to move discussion away from it. This should he a fun year indeed.

 

[Majmun]

And now, after getting all that snark out of my system, I'd like to apologize for doing so, but apparently people really only care about your posts when you're mean. So Beysus, I'm not actually trying to attack you personally or anything, but your posts in this thread were bugging me. Sorry, dude.

The issue aren't the ports. I want the Switch to get more Wii U ports even.

The issue is how that list is trying to portray some games as new entries of existing IP's for the Switch. They're not sequels or new games, but ports. Some comparisons are just off.

Switch still hasn't received a new Mario Kart game, for instance. Wii U got one in its third year. When will Switch? Definitely not in its first year, like how that list is trying to show.

But a release is a release and Nintendo is smart for re-releasing some Wii U games. But that list is stupid. It doesn't say anything about Nintendo and how fast they release new games for a new platform. And some games haven't even released yet...

 

[Skittzo0413]

The other interesting tidbit in the article is their analyst expecting Switch sales to be around 80 million lifetime.

It's incredibly hard to predict lifetime sales when you don't know how long the system's life will actually be, but assuming it's more than 5 years I would say 80 million sounds very reasonable, though potentially a bit low. Way too early too accurately predict lifetime sales though.

 

[phanphare]

The issue is how that list is trying to portray some games as new entries of existing IP's for the Switch.

this is your own filter that you've applied to that list, not a problem with the list itself

 

[Stencil]

wasn't it 12 million, an increase from their initial 10 million? not sure anymore, I think I have the numbers mixed up.

Either of those numbers is insane compared to the Wii U (13.5m ltd?)

Happy for Nintendo. Now let's get those GAMES goin!

 

[Polygonal_Sprite]

Open an account with an online broker. Deposit cash. Buy stocks. I can't really recommend any brokers since I don't live in the US, but check their brokerage fees before you decide. Also, it should go without saying, but don't invest money you can't afford to lose. I've had great luck with NTDOY, but there's no guarantee the stock price will ever reach Wii-levels or anywhere close.

Thanks a lot for the info! I'll look into it.

 

[Terrell]

I am really thinking next E3 will be the key indicator for 3rd parties. They will react once the install base reaches a certain number. Its the wait and see approach. This E3 is too close to the launch window and not enough systems sold yet to grease their wheels. Honestly, if 3rd and 4th quarter include Mario, Monster Hunters and Pokemon it is going to be selling systems like hotcakes.

They've played this game with Nintendo and lost a lot of money betting against the Wii. When they didn't play this game with Nintendo (see: DS), they were very prosperous.

3rd parties know they don't have long to wait, and I think E3 will reflect on whether they're making good or poor business decisions.

Why the assumption that AAA western games need to be the primary choice?

Japanese development has been discounted ever since the beginning of last generation, I don't expect that to stop any time soon, sadly.

In fairness, I do know quite a few gamers who are most comfortable participating in the AAA Western sphere and the brute force advertising which comes with it, and rarely dabble outside of that. Anything else is deemed either weird-looking, cheap-looking, too Japanese, or immature.

It's absolutely fine to have that preference. But it's extremely myopic to think of any paradigm as the default.

I've said before that, thanks to MS and Sony positioning themselves as "Western" consoles since last generation (for better or worse), the middle of the Venn diagram of "people who enjoy Japanese games" and "people who buy Nintendo hardware" gets larger the harder that Sony and MS push that idea to the forefront, which gives Japanese publishers a lot more opportunity in North America and Europe to sell their software on Nintendo platforms than I think they've yet realized.

Yeap I give up to be logical here... it will be fun to back to this thread next year.

I don't think it will be as fun as you think it will be... at least, not for you, anyways.

 

[Nostremitus]

Nintendo only said 10m in the QA... sorry.

Anything WSJ is saying not come from the QA... is is probably speculation outside the interview... like when you go to coffee break and talk with somebody that give you an of the docs number.

WSJ was talking about an internal brief, not the QA. Those numbers were reported as the actual numbers Nintendo were briefing. I'm starting to think you haven't read it. None of their numbers were speculation, they were talking to someone who was in the closed-door meeting at Nintendo.

Basically, instead of live tweeting from the meeting and risking their job, they released the info anonymously through a reputable new outlet. (or got paid for the scoop, who knows?)

I'm not sure why you brought up the QA. I has nothing to do with the WSJ story.

The point remains, it's obvious that their source was real and the numbers were not speculation.

 

[ethomaz]

WSJ was talking about an internal brief, not the QA. Those numbers were reported as the actual numbers Nintendo were briefing. I'm starting to think you haven't read it. None of their numbers were speculation, they were talking to someone who was in the closed-door meeting at Nintendo.

Basically, instead of live tweeting from the meeting and risking their job, they released the info anonymously through a reputable new outlet. (or got paid for the scoop, who knows?)

I'm not sure why you brought up the QA. I has nothing to do with the WSJ story.

The point remains, it's obvious that their source was real and the numbers were not speculation.

So it is just rumors... nobody can prove the source or numbers. What you described is the basis of speculation.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

It made sense to be cautious and only project 2 million sales ww for launch but they fucked up.

 

[Nostremitus]

So it is just rumors... nobody can prove the source or numbers. What you described is the basis of speculation.

I described why the WSJ story never mentioned anything about it being 10M, which was your claim. So, unless you'd like to prove that WSJ meant 10M when they stated 16M or more, just take the L and move on.

Also, do you consider tweets from the Nintendo financial and investors' briefs to be speculation as well?

Those aren't details coming from Nintendo's PR either.


Speculation: Nintendo said they are going to increase numbers, we think it could be 16M or more.

Not speculation: Nintendo stated they are increasing production to 16M or more.

It's speculation if the numbers are educated guesses, it's not speculation if they have the exact numbers as told by Nintendo themselves.

Just because WSJ didn't tell you their source in order to protect their job, doesn't mean the information was speculation. It's called a scoop.

 

[ethomaz]

I described why the WSJ story never mentioned anything about it being 10M, which was your claim. So, unless you'd like to prove that WSJ meant 10M when they stated 16M or more, just take the L and move on.

Also, do you consider tweets from the Nintendo financial and investors' briefs to be speculation as well?

Those aren't details coming from Nintendo's PR either.


Speculation: Nintendo said they are going to increase numbers, we think it could be 16M or more.

Not speculation: Nintendo stated they are increasing production to 16M or more.

It's speculation if the numbers are educated guesses, it's not speculation if they have the exact numbers as told by Nintendo themselves.

Just because WSJ didn't tell you their source in order to protect their job, doesn't mean the information was speculation. It's called a scoop.

Sorry but Nintendo never said anything about 16m... it is only WSJ saying that with conflict number each article.

That is rumor/speculation lol

Fact is 10m forecast by own Nintendo to fiscal year 2017. All my points in this thread are based in what Nintendo said and not rumor/speculations.

You want to make a rumor true just because you wish... it is laughable.

 

[Nostremitus]

Sorry but Nintendo never said anything about 16m... it is only WSJ saying that with conflict number each article.

That is rumor/speculation lol

Fact is 10m forecast by own Nintendo to fiscal year 2017. All my points in this thread are based in what Nintendo said and not rumor/speculations.

You want to make a rumor true just because you wish... it is laughable.

Wait, so you still claim Nintendo are only planning to make 10M?

 

[ethomaz]

Wait, so you still claim Nintendo are only making 10M?

That is what Nintendo planned... while they did not change their plan... yes.

Why I'm repeating something it was clear since my first post is really shocking... trying to use rumors to make a point is utter ridiculous.

 

[Nostremitus]

That is what Nintendo planned... while they did not change their plan... yes.

Why I'm repeating something it was clear since my first post is really shocking... trying to use rumors to make a point is utter ridiculous.

Your claim was that 10M was the doubled amount. As in, they were originally going to make 5M and then doubled to 10M.

Even though Nintendo themselves stated in the QA that they were producing more than 10M.

 

[ethomaz]

Your claim was that 10M was the doubled amount. As in, they were originally going to make 5M and then doubled to 10M.

Even though Nintendo themselves stated in the QA that they were producing more than 10M.

My claim was that probably the 10m forecast already accounts for the "double" or "ramp up" production of these rumors.

Of course... every company wishes to beat the forecast lol every QA they will say the same tô makes investors happy.

Let's by how many units they beat the forecast and/or they have forecast revisions in the next quarter... my personal prediction is that Nintendo will end shipping around 11-12m this fiscal year with one forecast revision in January/February.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

One day later and I come across the same argument going on.