(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report

Volotaire

Member
Today, the research firm issued its forecast for the Switch through 2020, which predicts that Nintendo will manage to shift 40 million units. DFC acknowledges that initial hardware allocations and a slim launch lineup will limit the system in the beginning but "demand is expected to be strong and the major issue will be whether the system can attract a broad audience starting in the holiday sales season of 2017."

DFC Intelligence head David Cole commented, "The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However given the limited software and Nintendo's poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative."

DFC Report summary (broken link at the moment)

The market brief with an overview and forecasts is available here. But, there is a fee barrier.

GamesIndustry Article (James Brightman)

Switch me if old

EDIT:

The thread title has a mistake lifted by the gameindustry article. The 40M estimate refers to 'by the end of 2020', rather than 'by the start of 2020'. Therefore, sales for 3.83 years.
 
 

rekameohs

Banned
Seems realistic with the 3DS install base, and a natural degradation of the handheld market share.

But still, way too early bro
 

Kyolux

Member
That's a bit still optimistic no? At $400 with no game (at least in Canada), I don't see it moving that much.
 

Jacce

Banned
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?
 
I actually don't think that's too unreasonable. Gives it 4 years. The 3DS did 60 million in 6. So it seems entirely doable to me.
 
That is about where I would put it if things go right.

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

It will hit 10 million. Maybe even this year. The impressions of the hardware have been glowing, which is the most important thing at this point. The rest can be corrected or adjusted.
 
40 million is conservative? Sounds great to me!

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

I would remind you of the reaction on GAF to the Wii.
 

spekkeh

Banned
After their predictions of VR I don't know whether this is a good thing. But it doesn't seem unpossible. Would need some casual hits though.
 

TS-08

Member
I'm confident it will do much better than the Wii U but I don't know that I could predict that number. I certainly wouldn't describe it as conservative.
 
So 40 million in about 4 years? They're thinking about 10 million a year. Yeah, I could think that's doable. It's really hard to say though.

40 million is conservative? Sounds great to me!



I would remind you of the reaction on GAF to the Wii.


Yeah, I don't see how 40 million in about 4 years is crazy expectations. We'll have to see though.
 
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?
GAF reactions seem reliable. Selling my Nintendo stock now.
 

Chindogg

Member
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

GAF is less than 1% of the potential consumers and honestly every thread's just the same 20-30 people losing their minds over every piece of potentially bad news.

Pokemon and Monster Hunter should get it at least close to that estimate.
 
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even.
Wait until this holiday until you make predictions like that. If Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario, Xenoblade, and maybe even Smash or Pokemon have come out by then, and most people are still singing that tune, you can be worried. It's way too early to tell
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
That's conservative for them? XB1 is at 26 mil, Wii U is at 13 million and 3DS took 6 years to reach 60 million.

Saying Switch is going to get 40 million means they will sell more than 10 million a year
 
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

Yes, keep using your impression of GAF as a measure of the market.
 
seems reasonable if they really do begin marketing it as a hybrid later.

if they continue marketing it as wiiu 2 they won't reach gamecube numbers though.
 

spekkeh

Banned
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?
99% of GAF is fiercely negative about mobile and mobas. True, Nintendo won't be getting those people either, but still. We're long past being relevant.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
They could sell another sku without the dock and grip, at $200, and easily reach these numbers.
 

wwm0nkey

Member
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?
GAF != the whole gaming community though.
 

TS-08

Member
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

I'm losing my ability to distinguish between genuine posts and sarcasm.
 

Jeels

Member
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

I don't think you have a gauge of the console market if you aren't predicting 10 million by 2020...
 

guek

Banned
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?
You're seeing what you want to see
 

rekameohs

Banned
Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?
This is a pretty hilarious post to write today. You know, the same day that a certain other thing that near 100% of GAF hates is happening in the political world.

GAF means nothing to the general public.
 
99% of GAF is fiercely negative about mobile and mobas. True, Nintendo won't be getting those people either, but still.
They'll get the mobile people for their mobile games, and some of them will convert to Switch. Pokemon GO proved that it is a sound strategy.
 
Seems realistic with the 3DS install base, and a natural degradation of the handheld market share.

Pretty much my thoughts now. Switch is looking more the 3DS/Vita successor / mobile (phone/tablet) alternative, than a hybrid home console. 40m in 3 years seems on par with Nintendo handhelds.
 

Harmen

Member
I think it can reach these numbers if Nintendo doesn't remain clueless. A (big) pricecut, Pokemon, healthy stream of titles, and good overall marketing can bring them far I think. The appeal and concept of the Switch are, unlike the WiiU, pretty good I'd say.

But I disagree with people expecting the 3ds userbase to just jump over to the Switch. The Switch is 330 euros here, which is 80 euros more than the launch price of the 3ds and well over 150 euros more than the price of the 3ds when it actually started selling.
 
They have to make those first and you know Nintendo don't like making a lot of hardware to sell to people. They'll sell their first 2 Million and then?? I hope they do well though.
 
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