Gordon Shumway
Banned
lol..
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Hillary Clinton Regains Momentum Against Donald Trump: Poll
- Thread starter Sir Alemeth
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Team Alucard
Banned
Cali, Mass, New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Washington, Maryland.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
You are so misguided on this it is asinine. You actually fucking think someone is going to ban and seize firearms, are you that batshit off your rocker? Can you please, give me the logistics on how that would even work?
You don't get to make such a bombastic statement without backing it up.
-Edit, how the hell do you get away with posting shit like this.
They absolutely got close. The thing about voters is that they're very reactionary. Every time one of them has a bad week things tend to tighten or expand depending on who it is. I think Trump had some very favorable polls, which skewed the regular ones to show more of a tightening. She was never going to maintain a 9-10 point lead in all the battleground states.
You're trying to create fear and panic so people support a reprehensible racist. You'll look back on 2016 while on you're deathbed and be like, "Why the fuck did I waste my time doing that? That was hateful and mean. Hillary ended up getting elected and led the US to a new age of prosperity."
Haha, as I said.....fucking delusional. Care to offer up some proof?
diablos991
Can’t stump the diablos
Also need to take into account the energy of the voters. Hillary voters are lacking in energy compared to Trump. Just look at the turnout for speeches and events. Trump crowds are demolishing Hillary crowds.
Lol.
Status quo politicians don't bring about prosperity unless the country is already in prosperity.
Actually name 38.....
CoffeeJanitor
Member
is that you Donald?
Trump can't help himself. He just has to be the top story, even if he's in the news for spewing garbage at a rally, which seems to happen most days. It's hilarious how he just keeps insisting on making headlines.
My Trump loathing has reached max level. He's truly an awful human being. Clinton isn't a great candidate, but at least she's as a person who hasn't built a career on destroying the lives of others and preying on the weak.
If Trump is elected I think I will just kind of sit back and watch Rome burn. Some people don't realized how unhinged he is and if he's President it will not take much time to see the Emperor has no clothes.
My Trump loathing has reached max level. He's truly an awful human being. Clinton isn't a great candidate, but at least she's as a person who hasn't built a career on destroying the lives of others and preying on the weak.
If Trump is elected I think I will just kind of sit back and watch Rome burn. Some people don't realized how unhinged he is and if he's President it will not take much time to see the Emperor has no clothes.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Not to mention this shit has been peddled for eight years, Obama is coming for your guns. Gun laws have not been restricted in the past eight years, not at all. I'm so tired of this shit.
I heard the SAME argument in 2012 about Romney....
Weird they didn't ban guns and render the 2nd Amendment hollow at some point in the 234 years preceding McDonald V Chicago. Wonder why.
rokkerkory
Member
Hey little boy i got some candy to sell u over here
If u really believe that nonsense
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
I'm fucking sure you have actual polls to back this up.
Amazing how they banned guns prior to Heller.
Just don't sell him Skittles. Apparently they're poisonous now.
eBay Huckster
Member
This doesn't falsely assume shit.
Every other named polling-aggregator model 1) was just as accurate in 2008 and 2012, if applicable and 2) doesn't include nearly as much janky shit, period, regardless of how Nate "weighs" (read: skews) them.
(e: actually, PEC just throws them in without weighting straight up, which makes 538's "random drift" model even weirder considering PEC's is still over 70%)
I guess, but Wang lowering the standard deviation in the first place was to bring it more in line with what was observed in 1996-2012 (i.e., the change in 2016 was to 6%).
DontBeThatGuy
Member
It's a waste of time, really, and I don't bother because that's ban potential.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Should just ignore him/her considering he/she gets to say absolutely disingenuous shit w/o having to be accountable for anything. Now wonder he/she supports Trump, it is the same exact bullshit.
Holy crap, where'd all the undecideds go? First time a candidate has hit 50% anywhere, no?
Unprecedented numbers of undecideds are what have been driving up the uncertainty in the polls, so if they're decreasing (ahead of a 1-on-1 debate, which should further reduce undecided numbers & 3rd party support), we might start to see the numbers firm up, if anything
Unprecedented numbers of undecideds are what have been driving up the uncertainty in the polls, so if they're decreasing (ahead of a 1-on-1 debate, which should further reduce undecided numbers & 3rd party support), we might start to see the numbers firm up, if anything
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Obama really fucking needs to keep pounding the pulpit with the message that responsible voting is the adult thing to do. Yes, he has to say Hillary is great as an individual, but he has started going in hardcore that this is about way, way more than Hillary.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
It's very unlikely to be a landslide (as much as it should be).
I've been feeling pretty agitated how much ground Trump has been gaining in FiveThirtyEight's model without there seeming to be any huge shift occuring, but seeing the recent update by PEC only having Hillary winning by 296 EVs (with a 71/81% chance of winning) signals why. Not a super close win but not very comforting either.
I'm just thankful he can't start threads anymore.
False Witness
Member
Why are the people who own a gun in order to "defend themselves" also such strong supporters of the police? What do you need the police for if you are capable of taking on the bad guys yourself?
Team Alucard
Banned
I am transgender (in that I have been professionally diagnosed with gender dysphoria), but I am closeted and non-transitioning. The only people who I have disclosed this information to are members of anonymous online forums and a mental health professional who I no longer see, and I would prefer to keep it that way. I do not really consider myself to be a member of the trans or LGBT community, because its not an identity that I embrace. If I could take a pill that would make me cis, I would do it in a heartbeat. I don't have any pride in being trans, to me its just a very unfortunate mental health affliction that I have to deal with.
I own two guns. I did not own a hand gun until a year ago, but I have had a shotgun for a while. Trap and skeet shooting has been a hobby of mine since High School. My dad and sister are both very into it as well.
What's convinced you to see it that way?
Ok fair enough. Must have confused you with another on guns.
Still, I have to ask, don't you have sympathy for others that are transgender that are facing real discrimination because they do embrace it? I mean I really don't think you're guns are going to be taken away from you, but man, those are just guns. We're talking about real people (not just people like you) that Trump and those like him are going to be actively trying to shit on. How can you deny this and worse even seem to embrace it? A year ago gay marriage was illegal in many states. Who knows what else the SC may vote on that could ultimately improve the lives of minorities. It won't happen with the kind of judges Trump and Republicans would want. But, your guns will probably be safe. Phew.
I feel for your struggles with your identity, but to not have any empathy for others that could be having the same struggles and would rather focus on a hobby...blows my mind.
The nightmare swirls and churns unending!
Until Election Day anyway.
EDIT: And the Transgender aspect is another can of worms entirely. But, uhhh, I'd prioritize that over a hobby that will PROBABLY stay safe with her as president anyway. Not unless your only option is the black market anyway.
prag16
Banned
Don't people routinely get shat on for pointing to a single favorable-to-Trump poll and imply that it's indicative of anything?
Why would this be any different. Hell some other poll got released today that has Trump up by 5 nationally. USC/LA Times I think.
I can understand obviously new news getting their own threads, but are single polls really new news in the same sense?
Why would this be any different. Hell some other poll got released today that has Trump up by 5 nationally. USC/LA Times I think.
I can understand obviously new news getting their own threads, but are single polls really new news in the same sense?
Embarrassing fearmongering rubbish. But you won't be embarrassed because you're either a character or lack the shame gland. But more importantly, your candidate ("Oh I don't necessarily support trump!") is such a bag of shit that you're resorting to naked fabulism rather than argument.
I work with a hardcore Republican and was trying to explain that Trump's dog whistles are literally a life or death concern for a lot of minorities and were actively making my life more difficult. He replied explaining that Clinton is trying to raise his taxes. It was depressing.
What I don't understand about people like Alucard and diablos who say there are Democratic legislatures all across the country just chomping at the bit to take everyone's guns away is, why didn't this already happen 20 years ago?
The assault weapons ban was an actual piece of legislation that actually being certain firearms. Why didn't *that*, a real legal ban, open the floodgates for wholesale firearm bans and a revoked Second Amendment? How do you look at the history of the AWB, which had a very narrow impact on gun ownership and no repercussions for the vast majority of gun owners, and conclude that any meaningful number of lawmakers anywhere want to completely take away your guns?
The assault weapons ban was an actual piece of legislation that actually being certain firearms. Why didn't *that*, a real legal ban, open the floodgates for wholesale firearm bans and a revoked Second Amendment? How do you look at the history of the AWB, which had a very narrow impact on gun ownership and no repercussions for the vast majority of gun owners, and conclude that any meaningful number of lawmakers anywhere want to completely take away your guns?
spazchicken
Member
So she doesn't have to green screen her audiences at her rallies anymore?
Let's see 'em
http://www.cnn.com/election
Apparently, NBC's is a rather new poll. The link I provided is from last week I believe. Gonna have to wait for other sites. My b's.
Pretty curious how this week is gonna work out.
It always reads to me on here that Trump supporters (on this board at least) are single issue voters. They focus on a sole thing and disregard the overall message of the Republican party.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I think that's inaccurate. It's far more likely that this is just how people frame their choice.
It's much more likely they align with him on other issues, as well.
Oh, I am sure it is inaccurate, it just reads that way to me. The laser focus on one thing, with no mention of any of the less nice points.
Yoda
Member
While this poll has her ahead again by a comfortable margin, most of the polls still have her ahead anyway (even if it's within the margin of error). What matters is the trend, and if there are similar polls this will signal she is no longer trending downward. The real issue is the debate, if Trump doesn't act like a moron the media will proclaim he's presidential and he'll win by curved grading.
There's no set "poll day" during the week, polls are run over a 3-4 day period pretty much constantly now that we're in the final 2 months of the election.
For example, here's a new poll from Monmouth University showing Clinton +5 in FL, the poll was run from 9/16 through 9/19.
prag16
Banned
Some of the recent posts about out of date polls, or not being able to find polls, baffle me.
This isn't rocket science. You don't have to go stumbling around searching for polls. RealClearPolitics.com has tons of polls, national, state by state, two-way, four-way, senate/house, and so on and so forth, all displayed in nice tables aggregating the results, with the ability to click on individual polls to see the details.
This isn't rocket science. You don't have to go stumbling around searching for polls. RealClearPolitics.com has tons of polls, national, state by state, two-way, four-way, senate/house, and so on and so forth, all displayed in nice tables aggregating the results, with the ability to click on individual polls to see the details.
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