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[Nikodemos]

The Yakuza’s Impact on the Japanese Economy


The full article is pretty good.

Yeah, heavily-structured mafia + economic dirigism = global fuckup. The officials pretended to have curbed yakuza influence in the mid-90s, but it merely made them switch from fringe stuff (like producing/distributing porn) to mainstream activities.

 

[MichaelFassbender]

Are you referring to Tokyo Vice by any chance?

MAN that's a good book. A bit self-serving, yes, but it highlights a ton of the problems in Japanese society. Pretty sobering read.

 

[Culex]

Immigration is how you fix the birthrate issues.

But with them being so homogenous, they've been slowly decaying.

It's insane how the negative birth rates in japan and Russia are viewed differently by the media.

 

[CrazyDude]

Immigration is how you fix the birthrate issues.

But with them being so homogenous, they've been slowly decaying.

A temporary solution.

 

[BocoDragon]

A temporary solution.

If it's only a temporary solution then all us first world countries are screwed... Almost none of us have enough kids to maintain our populations. Immigration is how we maintain it.

 

[Murder. She Wrote]

Personally I approve Japan's attitude towards foreigners. It's why they'll probably still be around in 60-80 years while some other countries won't.

By all means please elucidate your opinion.

 

[kirblar]

A temporary solution.

Err... no? Not in the short/medium term anyway. And doing so allows for people from countries with problems to make a better life for themselves.

It's insane how the negative birth rates in japan and Russia are viewed differently by the media.

Because they're very different situations?

 

[CrazyDude]

If it's only a temporary solution then all us first world countries are screwed... Almost none of us have enough kids to maintain our populations. Immigration is how we maintain it.

It's a matter of time before low birth rate spreads to the third world. It's already happening in many of them.

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

It's a matter of time before low birth rate spreads to the third world. It's already happening in many of them.

There's still going to be immigration from those countries though.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Personally I approve Japan's attitude towards foreigners. It's why they'll probably still be around in 60-80 years while some other countries won't.

Not to imply that all, or even most of Japanese society is xenophobic, but are you saying that that's a sentiment that positively contributes to the country?

 

[putarorex]

a year ago or so i read a book about a white jew who lived and worked in japan, and many japanese would call him a 'gaijin'

is it socially acceptable to refer to people condescendingly as foreigners/aliens?

Last week a middle-aged salary man called me and my friends gaijin-san. That was the first time in good while that I had heard that. It didn't really bother me and the "san" suffix had us laughing. My friend was using "Nihonjin-san" to get the salary man's attention while we chatted with him over some ramen.

 

[CrazyDude]

There's still going to be immigration from those countries though.

Sure, but the will be older and less likely to replace the population. They will just add on to the growing elderly pension system.

 

[Madness]

There's still going to be immigration from those countries though.

Yeah. Not to mention, there are more people in graduate schools in India and China than the populations of entire western countries like Norway etc.

 

[M3d10n]

If it's only a temporary solution then all us first world countries are screwed... Almost none of us have enough kids to maintain our populations. Immigration is how we maintain it.

Immigration requires a source of people willing to accept low living standards and low wages. As soon as the standards in their home countries improve, that fountain will dry.

 

[jerry1594]

Japan should try to downsize. It's crowded enough as it is.

 

[M3d10n]

Japan should try to downsize. It's crowded enough as it is.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Population_of_Japan_since_1872.svg

 

[Konka]

Personally I approve Japan's attitude towards foreigners. It's why they'll probably still be around in 60-80 years while some other countries won't.

We're all humans, "foreigners" isn't beneficial to us a species. We should be working to move beyond national boundaries.

 

[John Kowalski]

Personally I approve Japan's attitude towards foreigners. It's why they'll probably still be around in 60-80 years while some other countries won't.

It stops being ok when that behavior is implicitly fueled by racism, and also implicitly contributing to institutional racism.

Not to say that that is the case in Japan because i don't actually know what the case is in Japan, but every instance i've found of that mentality was heavily backed by very bad things.

 

[Piecake]

Sure, but the will be older and less likely to replace the population. They will just add on to the growing elderly pension system.

And you know this how?

 

[Ether_Snake]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Population_of_Japan_since_1872.svg

They are doing, unwillingly, exactly what they need to do. 130 million people in such a small country is ridiculous (look at how many people are in Japan VS the country's size in comparison to the US), and would be even more ridiculous a few decades from now. It's the usually boom and bust cycle; their population rate is falling and while this might have detrimental consequences on the very short term, it will have positive results in a future where high population count is a major detriment to socio-economic sustainability.

Japan has been ahead of most developed countries on a whole lot of fronts. It has its problems, but people significantly overestimate the population count issue.
http://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/US/JP

Look at how small it is compared to the US, yet it has more than 1/3 of its population count: 125m VS 320m. Japan has had an EXCESSIVE population count, it's now downsizing as it should.

And some interesting tidbits:

They are basically doing a lot of things right, but there is always a downturn before a boom. Japan will continue to face some hardships, but it is clearly going to be better adapted to the future economic reality of the world than a lot of developed countries are and will be. They are already a low-consumption society that will be more willing to live in shared amenities, with lower needs of ownership, lower need of high pay, while having higher living standards. Japan will be small and quick, people will have few attachments, in a world that will change ever more rapidly, which is what you need to be able to adapt easily and quickly to new realities. Bloated countries like China and India will have huge crises on their hands.

 

[Daft_Cat]

Japan will be fine, but the next 50 years are probably going to bring some huge structural changes to their society. Immigration will be a big part of that.

Is that wishful thinking fueled by my desire to one day live there?

多分。

 

[CrazyDude]

And you know this how?

Low birth rate means less young in those countries. Older adults tend to have less kids. Low birth rates in those third world countries also means that it will be transplanted to new countries. Low birth rate in those countries means those third world countries will also be going through similar demographic problems. Eventually the young population in those countries will dry up. No one is going to move to those third world countries to solve their demographic problems. Most of the world's birth rates are in decline.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Yeah, speaking on the birthrate issue, NHK World just had a fascinating documentary on it. They basically pin the low birthrate to several factors:

1. Long term economic stagnation that affects the younger demographic
2. Expensive cost of living in the city where most of the population is moving
3. Jobs that do not accommodate for pregnancy and child-rearing
4. Government policy that provides little economic incentive to have kids

The Japanese government recognizes the latter, but for them to be effective, it must deal with all four issues.

Japanese work culture seems good sometimes. I know everyone stereotypically thinks only of the salaryman working 80 hours a day but smaller places seem great. Retail employees generally seem really happy and are extremely nice.

People also seem to have more of a sense of responsibility where they work. Seeing suited men doing random cleaning tasks at their work place is really common. A new fairly high end cat dealership just opened up near me this week and the suited salesmen were pruning the lawn in the morning.

Wow does one letter make such a huge difference, lol.

 

[Daft_Cat]

Yeah, speaking on the birthrate issue, NHK World just had a fascinating documentary on it. They basically pin the low birthrate to several factors:

1. Long term economic stagnation that affects the younger demographic
2. Expensive cost of living in the city where most of the population is moving
3. Jobs that do not accommodate for pregnancy and child-rearing
4. Government policy that provides little economic incentive to have kids

The Japanese government recognizes the latter, but for them to be effective, it must deal with all four issues.

Sounds interesting. Is that documentary available online?

 

[Vashetti]

i don't know i'm conflicted part of me wants them to be diverse and think they're ignorant for not being more mixed but part of me knows deep down that only white people can be racist

What?

 

[Piecake]

Low birth rate means less young in those countries. Older adults tend to have less kids. Low birth rates in those third world countries also means that it will be transplanted to new countries. Low birth rate in those countries means those third world countries will also be going through similar demographic problems. Eventually the young population in those countries will dry up. No one is going to move to those third world countries to solve their demographic problems. Most of the world's birth rates are in decline.

Many third world countries will still have positive population growth until education and health is improved. The young population will still be enticed if they have the opportunity to go to first world economic nations. What you are describing might happen, but its not happening for hundreds of years. Immigrant populations do have more kids than existing populations as well. Its pretty much the reason why the US has a positive birth rate, or at lleast close to it.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Sounds interesting. Is that documentary available online?

NHK World doesn't have any places to stream old shows. So either you watch it live and record it through DVR, or you watch it through other dubious means.

That channel is generally Japan-centric, so the news has a strong Japanese slant. The documentaries about Japanese culture are good, but they present everything in an overtly positive light. Keep that in mind if you ever see anything from them.

 

[Daft_Cat]

What?

Jesus, lol.

That said, having travelled more in my early 20's...I've noticed that in a lot of countries the concept of race isn't as politicized as it is in the west. I think that's particularly true in Japan. It makes me think of their casual racism as slightly more harmless (culturally immature and ignorant, perhaps)...but in a way it's also a lot more dangerous. Fewer people seem to notice as systematic racist policies become entrenched in Japanese society.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

Personally I approve Japan's attitude towards foreigners. It's why they'll probably still be around in 60-80 years while some other countries won't.

Their debt to GDP ratio is 3 times that of the United States. Their shrinking population will make this problem worse. What makes you think they're going to be around longer than a lot of other industrialized nations, if only because they keep their foreigner count low and cowed?

 

[ponpo]

Wow does one letter make such a huge difference, lol.

Haha, woops.

 

[Syuurin]

It's great if you're white.

I was always under the impression that bad experiences in Japan were pretty spread out over all races (excluding the disproportionate amount of dislike for other Asian groups, especially Koreans), but perhaps I was mistaken? I feel I've come across a roughly equal amount of accounts from both white and non-white people, but obviously that doesn't mean too much.

Personally, I've never experienced anything overtly xenophobic, or even been particularly treated like a foreigner (people always talk to me in regular Japanese rather than attempting English or reducing complexity, for instance), but I always attributed this to a few things:
- I spent most of my time in a small town.
- I was pretty much always with my (ex) boyfriend, who was Japanese.
- I have a close-to-native accent when speaking and find the social framework there very natural, so I probably don't come off as strikingly "foreigner-like" in manner.

I often wonder if my experience would have been different in, say, Tokyo.


In regard to the OP's small mention of the decline of sex's appeal, it seems to me that Japanese men often seem to have a skewed idea of relationships. This was certainly the case with my relationship--he was (and still is, as far as I can tell) very naïve when it comes to thinking about things like how long relationships last (in expecting them to just "last forever"), about sex (the portrayal of sexual relationships in popular media isn't exactly healthy or accurate, and this was definitely reflected here) and female "innocence", etc. I later spoke to a friend of mine (a guy who used to be friends with said ex) about the subject, and he agreed that a lot of men seem to be rather close-minded/naïve about how relationships work. Could just be a function of this particular friend-group, but there also seems to be evidence that this is a bit of a trend.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Their debt to GDP ratio is 3 times that of the United States. Their shrinking population will make this problem worse. What makes you think they're going to be around longer than a lot of other industrialized nations, if only because they keep their foreigner count low and cowed?

Japan will likely be a huge production center with a low population count in a few decades, meaning a whole lot of products will be made there for cheap because of technological advancements/robotics. Japanese people will be producing the technology, foreign companies will be given high incentives to establish their facilities there as long as the production line is using Japanese machinery (the kind incentives governments of populous countries cannot afford because they need high revenue to sustain services and infrastructure). Since the population count and living expenditures be low, so will salaries be and government revenues won't need to be particularly high. Stability will be considered high due to low needs on the population's part, at a time where major instability will be hitting countries with high population count.

People have always looked at a process where capitalist companies jumped from one poor country to the next to find new cheap labor or resources to exploit, but we are about to make the jump to a whole different kind of country; one where there are a lot of machines, few people, and the people who are there work mainly in maintaining the machines and the infrastructures and don't live a lifestyle like ours but instead one where they live in a more communal lifestyle, provided for in part by the companies and the state. Organized crime already favors this type of social structure, since it has forced the government, banking, and social order to be fused over the years. Japan will be similar in structure to its feudal past, highly structured but small in components; this won't be a conscious decision but a result of 21st century technological advancement's impact on society and a society adapted to this reality.

 

[sprsk]

Their debt to GDP ratio is 3 times that of the United States. Their shrinking population will make this problem worse. What makes you think they're going to be around longer than a lot of other industrialized nations, if only because they keep their foreigner count low and cowed?

Foreigners (read:zainichi) cause crime and all the corruption which natural Japanese are completely incapable of. The Japanese are a harmonious people who would never do anything to interrupt their natural harmonious state. If you add foreigners to the mix you endanger the peaceful society of Japan becoming Chicago, Rio de Janero or even worse North Korea. Though, with the amount of chousenjin in the country many believe Japan has already lost it.

/typical 2channeler


Being white in Japan just means you get a little less racism, you still fall under the classification not Japanese which for a lot of people is all that matters.

 

[ponpo]

Foreigners (read:zainichi) cause crime and all the corruption which natural Japanese are completely incapable of. The Japanese are a harmonious people who would never do anything to interrupt their natural harmonious state. If you add foreigners to the mix you endanger the peaceful society of Japan becoming Chicago, Rio de Janero or even worse North Korea. Though, with the amount of chousenjin in the country many believe Japan has already lost it.

/typical 2channeler

Well that's a lot of hyperbole but aren't there stats worldwide that correlate immigration with crime?

 

[Boss Mog]

Not to imply that all, or even most of Japanese society is xenophobic, but are you saying that that's a sentiment that positively contributes to the country?

Yes, it prevents them from having big immigration issues with immigrants that refuse to conform and integrate into a country's society and culture and instead try to impose their own culture upon their host nation.

Immigration is a great thing but only if immigrants are willing to make efforts by doing simple things like learning the language, obeying the laws and basically trying to fit in and contribute to their new society rather than be a burden to it.

 

[Abounder]

Japan and the region seems screwed in the future. It's a region where everyone hates eachother and nearly everyone hates Japan to the point where SK would rather side with the north instead of Japan.

Japan's economy will either continue to lose business to its neighboring rivals like China and SK (like TVs), or one or more of these economies will burst and cause instability. And instead of addressing socioecnomic turmoil they will just militarize and invade a small uninhabited rock of an island or ram eachother's ships as a distraction; although building up a defense industry can also help the economy for these Asian nations.

As for Japanese discrimination, that region in general is politically incorrect but I was most appalled by reading the discrimination against victims of nuclear attack (the hibakusha). From the wiki:

There is considerable discrimination in Japan against the hibakusha. It is frequently extended toward their children as well: socially as well as economically. "Not only hibakusha, but their children, are refused employment," says Mr. Kito. "There are many among them who do not want it known that they are hibakusha."

—Studs Terkel (1984), The Good War.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibakusha#Discrimination

I think the prejudices, lack of social advancement, dwindling population, and economic uncertainty will make Japan and its neighbors an unstable region in the future. But time will tell.

 

[BocoDragon]

I was always under the impression that bad experiences in Japan were pretty spread out over all races (excluding the disproportionate amount of dislike for other Asian groups, especially Koreans), but perhaps I was mistaken? I feel I've come across a roughly equal amount of accounts from both white and non-white people, but obviously that doesn't mean too much.

As a white guy in Japan I get the good kind of racism: they tend to treat me overly well. I feel more valued there than I do in my own, white-dominated country. White privilege and all that.

It's night and day treatment from what other non-Japanese Asians and non-Whites get.

I'm sure there are some "no gaijin" things there that apply equally to all non-Japanese, but I'd have to dig deep to find them. I've never seen it.

 

[Daft_Cat]

Well that's a lot of hyperbole but aren't there stats worldwide that correlate immigration with crime?

Confounds are staring all those statistics in the face and Canada is standing nearby laughing.

Poor integration of immigrants leads to de facto racial segregation. That often results in ethnically composed poor socio-economic clusters, which is what generally brings on the crime.

 

[Bluth54]

a year ago or so i read a book about a white jew who lived and worked in japan, and many japanese would call him a 'gaijin'

is it socially acceptable to refer to people condescendingly as foreigners/aliens?

When I played Red Steel a bunch of the enemies in the game called me gaijin and it didn't really bother me.

 

[ZiZ]

The racism thing reminded me of of this old blog I used to read about an American who taught middle school in Japan, lots of interesting stuff, from people avoid sitting near him on the metro, to little kids asking about the size of his dick (he is Black).

http://gaijinchronicles.com/

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

What is an ideal population for Japan?

 

[Nikodemos]

The racism thing reminded me of of this old blog I used to read about an American who taught middle school in Japan, lots of interesting stuff, from people avoid sitting near him on the metro, to little kids asking about the size of his dick (he is Black).

http://gaijinchronicles.com/

Haha, I remember reading his stuff from several years back. I rofl'd at his continuing attempts to dodge high-school kids trying to stick their fingers in his ass (you have to read the relevant posts to understand).

 

[erpg]

What is an ideal population for Japan?

Reverse the age curve.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

As for Japanese discrimination, that region in general is politically incorrect but I was most appalled by reading the discrimination against victims of nuclear attack (the hibakusha). From the wiki:.

Wow, I wasn't aware of this. That's awful.

 

[Yamauchi]

I personally underestimated the level of xenophobia in Japan until very recently. When Shinzo Abe alluded to opening up certain segments of the economy to migrant workers, such as allowing in caretakers in nursing homes, janitors, etc., the backlash within Japan was quite enormous. I heard it constantly on TV and read about it continuously on the internet; it was a entirely unimaginable notion to the average Japanese xenophobe (I won't guess at what percentage of the population they represent).

Abe recognizes this is a necessity given the fact that Japan's public debt is at about 240% of GDP and is rising rapidly (expected to possibly reach 400% of GDP in the next 10 years) while the population is expected to crater toward the 50 million mark by the end of this century. Japanese leaders know privately they are going to have to open the country up to much higher levels of immigration -- nothing like in the West, but still much higher than in the past -- and some have talked about trying to stabilize the population at 100 million. If that's the case, they will have to allow in several hundred thousand immigrants per year.

I don't believe that automation is really going to lend itself to large-scale depopulation, either. Automation has been going on for a long time now, and it doesn't play out quite the way people expect. It leads to strange imbalances where programmers can get $110,000 offers out of school and other college grads are lucky to make $30,000. It creates shortages in the workforce that can restrict growth on a national scale; Japan is known already to be facing critical labor shortages in certain technical fields. The sad truth is that not everybody can be an engineer.

By the way, it is not really true that almost all developed countries are in the same position as Japan. The UK, the US, France, and Australia are some of the developed countries that have birth rates very close to replacement levels, France being the highest. And there is a very big difference between a fertility rate of 1.4 (Japan) and 1.9 (the UK). Germany has a lower birth rate than Japan, but Germany also has high levels of immigration, a relatively low public debt burden, and a balanced budget. So no, Japan's combination of problems is uniquely its own.

But that's just looking at it from an economic standpoint. Obviously, from other perspectives a declining population can be a good thing. It will eventually create less of an environment burden, though presently that is not happening as Japanese builders continue to clear and build new large housing developments while ones that were only developed a few decades ago are now abandoned due to depopulation.

Just my two cents.

 

[Fafalada]

It's probably even worse in Korea :/

The problem seems pretty much uniform across major Asian countries. But at least in Korea part of long "work" hours is getting drunk in Karaoke - no such fun in places like Singapore (which also has the lowest natality rate in the world IIRC).

 

[Ether_Snake]

Abe recognizes this is a necessity given the fact that Japan's public debt is at about 240% of GDP and is rising rapidly (expected to possibly reach 400% of GDP in the next 10 years) while the population is expected to crater toward the 50 million mark by the end of this century. Japanese leaders know privately they are going to have to open the country up to much higher levels of immigration -- nothing like in the West, but still much higher than in the past -- and some have talked about trying to stabilize the population at 100 million

This is where people get fooled. They look at end-of-century projection, as if it was applied today. The FACT is every year, you need fewer and fewer humans, and the currently technological advances are much different than in the past, you could soon replace a lawyer with one that works somewhere else on the planet, just need to broadcast him in the court. Why would you need massive immigration in a context where you have labor replacement on an massive scale resulting from technological advances (especially late in the 21st century) or where you can have a worker work from anywhere in the world? There is almost no consideration of labor-replacement by machines and remote-controlled operations/services in discussions about Japan's future population size, or any population.

 

[Yamauchi]

This is where people get fooled. They look at end-of-century projection, as if it was applied today. The FACT is every year, you need fewer and fewer humans. Why would you need massive immigration in a context where you have labor replacement on an massive scale resulting from technological advances (especially late in the 21st century)? There is almost no consideration of labor-replacement by machines in discussions about Japan's future population size, or any population.

As I mentioned, there are already problematic labor shortages in technical fields in Japan. I can get you a good reference on that.

Automation will not fix the public debt problem at all, either.

 

[Ether_Snake]

As I mentioned, there are already problematic labor shortages in technical fields in Japan. I can get you a good reference on that.

Automation will not fix the public debt problem at all, either.

As I mentioned, there are already problematic labor shortages in technical fields in Japan. I can get you a good reference on that.

Automation will not fix the public debt problem at all, either.

The debt is a problem if you have a high population count. If the country goes bust on dept repayment, it's only the people who are serviced by the government that take the hit.

In a scenario where the population count is falling and hence the cost to service the population is dropping, the impact of default is reduced. But again, all those scenarios do not take the technological advances we are seeing in consideration, which would soften the damage and eventually lead to a reversal of the economic situation, where Japan no longer needs to grow its debt because population-servicing is low and productivity is optimal as a result of low population count and high technological and production capacity.

Low cost, high productivity, = low debt. There will be a transition, but all industrialized countries will have to transition to the future economy eventually and some will be better adapted than others to do it. Either you'll take a big sudden hit and change course, or if you are a country with a lot of people you will be dragged trying to limit the damage but slow your ability to adapt over a much longer period and this would result in a lot of instability and economic uncertainty.

Many other countries will be well adapted, such as Nordic countries or other developed countries with low population count, but Japan has a history of turning on a dime regardless of the cost to its individual population, so it can adapt faster and it is ahead of many of those countries on various fronts. They are very apt at changing course and making sacrifice (exemplified in countless ways throughout their history), and the need to do so is coming fast for the whole world because the technological advancements are global, but the solution won't be by increasing the state's burden, it will be by servicing the global economy with the lowest cost and highest productivity, a quasi-perpetual war-time economy but with few people and a lot of machines, where people don't consume much, don't spend much, don't need much. You can already see how Japanese society is structured around those principles and they have been for centuries, but they are now stuck in a socio-economic context that doesn't fit to them, one of imposed capitalism. What people are essentially doing is saying that Japan is not doing what a good capitalist individual should do, but they have been culturally incompatible with this system as a whole. It is not individualism that has allowed Japan to become a leading global economy, nor is it the Japanese who asked for a capitalist society, it is top-down control by the government that imposed this system as a necessity. The government will change the system again when the need arises; Japan has not changed structurally, only a facade has changed, but the top-down central control is still present and any socio-economic crisis will reinforce it.

Technological advancements are likely to bring us back to a state where humans cannot consume or demand much individually, and cultures that are already aligned with this will adapt more easily. It doesn't mean that it will be fun, but fun doesn't matter when we are not in control of the situation anyway.

 

[Piecake]

Yes, it prevents them from having big immigration issues with immigrants that refuse to conform and integrate into a country's society and culture and instead try to impose their own culture upon their host nation.

Immigration is a great thing but only if immigrants are willing to make efforts by doing simple things like learning the language, obeying the laws and basically trying to fit in and contribute to their new society rather than be a burden to it.

the government actually needs to give immigrants an opportunity for immigrants to be successful and integrate if they want to. And how the hell do immigrants impose their culture on the host nation? By retaining cultural beliefs from their home nation? Oh noes! If the government has policies that allows immigrant communities to integrate, the descendants of the immigrants will usually/mostly adopt the nation's culture.

Immigrants want a better life and will work hard for it. Lazy bastards usually don't immigrant to foreign nations. If those immigrants are stuck in the lowest rungs of the society for generations, it is the fault of the government for keeping them there, not the immigrants themselves.