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[Wolves Evolve]

What remains to be seen is how we perceive success. Last gen, the Gamecube made money, but not really enough for Nintendo. Sony and MS both sank millions into their machines but had operating profits on games. So in a year, when Wii is perhaps in second or third place, wannabe analysts could say 'Nintendo are losing', but I think that perhaps we will need to adapt to a new way of thinking of the games market. It used to be console and PC sales were considered closely together, which doesn't happen as much. The Wii's success is much less about comparing it to the other two consoles as its a totally divergent business models. Game sales across the first couple of years will certainly still be interesting.

If Wii does turn out to be everybody's second console for 4-5 good games, they will vomit cash on themselves.

They need to announce Nintendogs and Brain Training Wii, now. Show screenshots and videos, now.

 

[PoliceCop]

I don't think anyone here is claiming Nintendo won the generation.

They may not be claiming it overtly but there are definitely more than a few here who believe it and are making statements accordingly. None of the consoles have come close to winning anything and it will be at least another year before any sort of legitimate statement can be made.

Edit:

And to the people bringing up the graphics argument, the system with the best games is typically the system that wins the console war. Better processing power allows for more creative oppurtunities in terms of design. The trade off with Wii is that you're getting next gen controls with last gen design. You can't say that graphics don't matter because it's entirely too early to determine how peoples interests are going to fall. People can argue about this and minimize its importance till they're blue in the face but it's a pure and simple fact.

 

[VerTiGo]

What remains to be seen is how we perceive success. Last gen, the Gamecube made money, but not really enough for Nintendo. Sony and MS both sank millions into their machines but had operating profits on games. So in a year, when Wii is perhaps in second or third place, wannabe analysts could say 'Nintendo are losing', but I think that perhaps we will need to adapt to a new way of thinking of the games market. It used to be console and PC sales were considered closely together, which doesn't happen as much. The Wii's success is much less about comparing it to the other two consoles as its a totally divergent business models. Game sales across the first couple of years will certainly still be interesting.

If Wii does turn out to be everybody's second console for 4-5 good games, they will vomit cash on themselves.

They need to announce Nintendogs and Brain Training Wii, now. Show screenshots and videos, now.

Brain Training Wii, or Big Brain Academy was revealed a long, long time ago.

 

[soundwave05]

I think the Wii has a pretty good chance at being the no.1 selling game console worldwide in 2007 (shipped/sold whichever way you wanna slice it).

 

[angelfly]

Brain Training Wii, or Big Brain Academy was revealed a long, long time ago.

Big Brain Academy was announced

 

[Grampa Simpson]

They may not be claiming it overtly but there are definitely more than a few here who believe it and are making statements accordingly. None of the consoles have come close to winning anything and it will be at least another year before any sort of legitimate statement can be made.

Edit:

And to the people bringing up the graphics argument, the system with the earliest top notch games that get properly advertised and produce a significant amount of buzz is typically the system that wins the console war. Better processing power allows for more creative oppurtunities in terms of design. The trade off with Wii is that you're getting next gen controls with last gen design. You can't say that graphics don't matter because it's entirely too early to determine how peoples interests are going to fall. People can argue about this and minimize its importance till they're blue in the face but it's a pure and simple fact.

Fix'd.

GTA was the game that people were talking about at the office and at school and at church 5 years ago. Now it's Wii Sports.

You know what I'm predicting.

 

[soundwave05]

Fix'd.

GTA was the game that people were talking about at the office and at school and at church 5 years ago. Now it's Wii Sports.

You know what I'm predicting.

Nintendo's made remarkable gains in terms of mindshare that is for sure. The Wii has probably usurped the PS3 outright in terms of "water cooler" talk. I'm surprised how well known the Wii brand has become in such a short time. Everyone knows what it is.

Nintendo lost the mindshare war badly with the GameCube. I *never* once heard any of my more casual friends talk about Super Mario Sunshine or Resident Evil on the GameCube ... hell a lot of people couldn't even get the GameCube name right or didn't know exactly what it was (is that the new Playcube/Gamebox/Gamesphere, lol etc. etc.).

If you told me this past September that the Wii would get equal or even greater billing than the PS3 in terms of hype/mindshare/mainstream media frenzy ... I would've said you were crazy.

 

[Odysseus]

Fix'd.

GTA was the game that people were talking about at the office and at school and at church 5 years ago. Now it's Wii Sports.

You know what I'm predicting.

i'm predicting:

 

[Vargas]

Fix'd.

GTA was the game that people were talking about at the office and at school and at church 5 years ago. Now it's Wii Sports.

You know what I'm predicting.

You predicted incorrectly.

 

[JavyOO7]

How Nintendo can avoid getting screwed this gen:

Innovative/Unique use of their controller from 3rd parties and Nintendo themselves: the most obvious thing. No use to the system if the main bullet point of the console doesn't end up lighting the world on fire.

3rd parties hopping on the bandwagon: Nintendo can't carry the console by themselves. Wii will just become GameCube: The Blithering if 3rd parties don't believe in the platform.

Nintendo and their various franchises: Mario/Zelda and the other big franchises won't get Nintendo out of GCN marketshare territory. New shit like Wii music/ Wii sports will.

But this post is basically Captain Obvious post, I just wanted to share my feelings.

 

[citrus lump]

I heard a grown man talk about the Wii at the bar the other night.

I wanted to smash in his face with my mug.

 

[soundwave05]

Wii Sports 2 has got to be in development too. Ice Hockey, Basketball, Track, Kung-Fu etc. please.

 

[PoliceCop]

You can't compare the pull of GTA with Wii Sports (a game that owes much of its "success" to the fact that its a pack in and the sweeping majority of the Wii lineup is crap). Wii Sports will never be GTA, Wii Sports will never be Halo, and when they release their next bland and uninspired Wii ______ package I give my personal guaruntee that it won't see anythign close to the commercial or public acclaim of the aforementioned series. It's fine for what it is, but it isn't much.

 

[soundwave05]

You can't compare the pull of GTA with Wii Sports (a game that owes much of its "success" to the fact that its a pack in and the sweeping majority of the Wii lineup is crap). Wii Sports will never be GTA, Wii Sports will never be Halo, and when they release their next bland and uninspired Wii ______ package I give my personal guaruntee that it won't see anythign close to the commercial or public acclaim of the aforementioned series. It's fine for what it is, but it isn't much.

Regardless it's been a long time since Nintendo has had a console game or game console with this level of buzz among just regular people. I think you'd have to go back to like GoldenEye and the N64 10 years ago.

My guess is the next "big" thing is games will be the polar opposite of GTA anyway ... that's generally how trends seem to go. The biggest franchises to come onto the game market prior to GTA for instance was Pokemon and The Sims.

The "next" GTA may not be born on the Wii ... but the next Sims? Quite possibly.

 

[ghostlyjoe]

I heard a grown man talk about the Wii at the bar the other night.

I wanted to smash in his face with my mug.

It's probably best if you retire from the Net for awhile ... it's not healthy to have meaningless crap inspire such rage ...

 

[Xeke]

I heard a grown man talk about the Wii at the bar the other night.

I wanted to smash in his face with my mug.

Go smoke some weed...You sound like you need it...

 

[PoliceCop]

Regardless it's been a long time since Nintendo has had a console game or game console with this level of buzz among just regular people. I think you'd have to go back to like GoldenEye and the N64 10 years ago.

My guess is the next "big" thing is games will be the polar opposite of GTA anyway ... that's generally how trends seem to go. The biggest franchises to come onto the game market prior to GTA for instance was Pokemon and The Sims.

The "next" GTA may not be born on the Wii ... but the next Sims? Quite possibly.

IMO, the next big game is obviously going to have a pretty heavy focus on online aspects as I see games trending towards multi-play oriented. Until Nintendo gets the online infrastructure up and running correctly, with voice chat, and the absence of unnecessary burdens of friend codes and other obstacles, I don't see the next big game being on a Nintendo console.

 

[soundwave05]

IMO, the next big game is obviously going to have a pretty heavy focus on online aspects as I see games trending towards multi-play oriented. Until Nintendo gets the online infrastructure up and running correctly, with voice chat, and the absence of unnecessary burdens of friend codes and other obstacles, I don't see the next big game being on a Nintendo console.

Then again the next big game could have no online play, have a low end budget, and minimalistic graphics. No one can really predict these things.

Just like in movies/music/television it's pointless to try and predict the next big thing. It usually happens and it usually comes pretty much out of nowhere.

 

[Xeke]

IMO, the next big game is obviously going to have a pretty heavy focus on online aspects as I see games trending towards multi-play oriented. Until Nintendo gets the online infrastructure up and running correctly, with voice chat, and the absence of unnecessary burdens of friend codes and other obstacles, I don't see the next big game being on a Nintendo console.

Whats this next big game?

Most of the big games I know of are big because of their single player.

 

[citrus lump]

It's probably best if you retire from the Net for awhile ... it's not healthy to have meaningless crap inspire such rage ...

It's not just the net (although 92% of threads here are Wii related)

The Wii is everywhere- in flyers, in discussions, all over TV.

I JUST WANT TO STUFF MY FAT FACE WITH A BK QUAD STACKER WITHOUT HEARING ABOUT THAT ****ING NINTENDO THING !!!!

 

[soundwave05]

It's not just the net (although 92% of threads here are Wii related)

The Wii is everywhere- in flyers, in discussions, all over TV.

I JUST WANT TO STUFF MY FAT FACE WITH A BK QUAD STACKER WITHOUT HEARING ABOUT THAT ****ING NINTENDO THING !!!!

This is true. Nintendo's PR department deserves a raise. Since really about E3 they haven't done anything wrong.

And this is the same company that five years ago couldn't even market a Mario game properly.

 

[PoliceCop]

Then again the next big game could have no online play, have a low end budget, and minimalistic graphics. No one can really predict these things.

Just like in movies/music/television it's pointless to try and predict the next big thing. It usually happens and it usually comes pretty much out of nowhere.

Of course, of course. I just don't see it happening.

 

[Jokeropia]

I think Nintendogs qualifies as the latest big game personally.

 

[Cheesemeister]

We need to see gold coins flying out of the wii

 

[soundwave05]

Of course, of course. I just don't see it happening.

True. Then again, did you call GTA being bigger than MGS2 prior to fall 2001? No one did.

Ditto for Pokemon, GoldenEye, The Sims, and even really now the Wii itself. There's no way to predict the entertainment business.

Even with movies/music ... there was no way I would have said a 1912 period love story set on a boat would be the no.1 blockbuster movie of all time in early 1997. Or in early 1999 if you told me a white rapper would be become the best selling artist in the music business ... I would have laughed in your face.

What I think Nintendo recognized around 2003 is that there was a growing legion of people who were alienated by modern games and that gaming was moving further and further away from the original ideals behind the NES and even going further back Pac-Man/Pong/Space Invaders/etc. They had an oppurtunity to cash in as Sony/MS become more and more convulted/overly serious with their console designs.

Basically what they've done is create a modern day equivalent to that type of pick up and play gaming. The Wii is an old-school game console for the modern market, with a generous helping of Nintendo's traditional franchises on top of that.

 

[PantherLotus]

Who's the mod with the Nintendo vendetta? :lol

You'll know it when you see it.

 

[Azelover]

I think Wii will be VERY popular. But I think Nintendo's concern is that the new gamers might move onto more core systems like PS3 and 360 after they've learned how to play games on Wii and play through quite a few party like stuff..

Nintendo should make sure that those enticed by Wii and not the other two REMAIN THAT WAY. So they should forecast the trends of these new gamers to see what they look for after their initial phases, and then make sure they've got that kinda content on the Wii, too.

They won't move to other systems soon, not this generation at least, and in my opinion most of them won't move at all. The flexibility here is much more limited than your average gamer's, and frankly will always be. See how faithful the PlayStation audience has been? These people will be far more faithful, and once Nintendo gets them they will keep them for as long as non-gamers are gaming. It's a matter of brand and a matter of being their entry point, if Nintendo fails to sustain their interest level these people will leave gaming, it's that simple.

And it isn't Nintendo's plan to leave the core gamer un-served, so even if any of those casual gamers were to become hardcore, which is very unlikely as there’s also a lifestyle issue supporting their position, but even then they would still have something to look forward to. You have seen that on the DS, alongside aswell as after many touch generation titles arrived, the DS has been served a lot of core gamer games too, specially recently. I expect no different from the Wii. For every Wii Sports you've got Zelda and Red Steel, for Wii Play you have Wario Ware, and you'll have Metroid, Smash Bros. and Mario, aswell as Wii Orchestra and Wii Aerobics in the future, all of these games will be serving their purposes, and who knows what else is on the pipe.

The point isn't that graphics don't matter, because it does, but the line of argument made that in a few years time, graphics will overpower everything, isn't very convincing to me, because its been said before. It also implicitly assumes people care the most about graphics in a few years, which also isn't true. The use of the wiimote/touch screen will follow the same curve as system graphics. You'll have 1st, 2nd and late generation uses of wiimotes.

Exactly, the Wii remote is a new way of doing the initial novelty game graphics were usually responsible for, it's deliberate and it's working. And I believe it will have just as much longevity if not more, as there is a lot of untapped potential in it, even more so than the touchscreen.

 

[jimbo]

The 360 is doing well in the West but without Japanese support (of which it has none) it will slowly be passed by the likes of the Wii and eventually the PS3. Japan makes up almost half of the video game buying world so with zero acceptance there the 360 is doomed to last place despite looking pretty good.

The Wii is smoking the PS3 right now mainly on price and novelty. Neither have any real killer apps so if things continue like this I'd say that Nintendo will stay ahead due to price and Nintendo factor.

So it seems that Nintendo will win this generation due to 360's lack of acceptance in Japan and the PS3's high price. This could change if Sony drops price or delivers killer software. If the 360 starts to gain traction in Japan it could be a threat but as things look right now Nintendo is the strong favorite.

If Nintendo does not deliver the software like it did for the DS then I could see the Wii passing away as a weak novelty.

:lol
I wish I had a GIF of someone jumping over a huge gun.


Your argument is flawed in a number of ways. First of all this same logic was applied to the GC and the first Xbox by some people, but Japan did not make a difference in that situation. Because obvioulsy the Xbox even without Japan came in 2nd world-wide.

And second, Europe is now the 2nd largest market with Japan being 3rd. Japan does NOT make up 50% of all game sales.

If the 360 can have a large enough gap over the Wii in the US and Europe, as well as the smaller countries(such as Australia) it can offset the Wii's advantage over the 360 in Japan. This is what happened with GC & Xbox. Same can be said about the 360 vs PS3.

In conclusion it's just WAY TOO EARLY to make any conclusions that actually hold any water at this point in time. Anything can happen, and making assumptions from 2 months worth of holiday sales, not to mention LAUNCH HOLIDAY sales, is stupid.

 

[Slurpy]

An old friend whos in med school now called me up today, hes in town. I remember back in the day whenver I tried to get him to play a few minutes of a game, (multiplayer) he would never, ever touch anything videogame related. He was so stubborn about it, I finally assumed it was religious or something. Anyway, 5 min into the conversation he excitedly asks me if Ive heard of the wii, and that he has one, and how great it is. If he got interested in it, I guess Nintendos on to something.
But I agree, conversations about wii seem to pop up in unexpected places/times.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

They need to announce Nintendogs and Brain Training Wii, now. Show screenshots and videos, now.

Though as people have said Big Brain Academy Wii has been shown and I'm sure more is on the way, I disagree that these are a necessity. If we look at DS and PSP, part of what DS has done well is having exclusive games that fit it well, versus the PSP lineup which has more console ports or spinoffs. Wii can't survive on DS spin-ups, but will need its own exclusives that fit it well, like Wii Sports.

 

[Mr_Furious]

After gears this year I'm having trouble following your logic. The graphical difference is obvious even to the most casual observer.

The line of argument you are following, which is basically, wait a few years and the graphics of the competition will overpower the Wii, is not new. It was said for the DS, but the DS had a tremendous 2nd year and rival's graphical strengths matter less and less each day.

Ultimately, what will doom Nintendo is not Sony or Microsoft, it's Nintendo. I know it sounds cliche and trite, but its true. The GAF doomsaying tendency is to play up the threat from without 'OMG, Dark Lord Sauron marches upon the white city' prophecies, where as with the history of the fall of any large organization (ie: empire, corporate dominance of a market), the weakness usually comes from within, starting with a flawed strategy.

Your having problem following my logic because your thinking "in the now". I'm talking a couple years from now when all systems are in full gear and people have been fully exposed to what each platform can offer.

I partially agree with you about Nintendo having to doom themselves but you must ask yourself this question. If Nintendo didn't have such a successful portable division do you honestly think they'd have the same strategy they're currently planning for their home console? I think having such a profitable pillar makes it possible for Nintendo to take risks such as the Wii and not conform to what the market wants in an effort to penetrate a potentially untapped market.

Exactly. Even the GBA -- technology that is over a decade old -- manages to outsell the PSP.

The graphics arguement holds no water at this point.

Can everyone please stop comparing home console markets to that of portable. They are apples to oranges and require different strategies for market success. The only influence the home division has over the portable is that the portable division has afforded Nintendo to take more risks with their home console strategy. But they are seperate beasts all together.

I agree with this. But I believe that people are going to naturally be drawn to the Wii based on the controller and the phenominally appealing games.

I think it's a litte premature to say the Wii has "phenominally appealing games". We're still in the honeymoon period so only time will tell if what you say becomes truth. For all we know, the Wii market may reform back to that of the Nintendo faithful after the gimmick wears off.

The point isn't that graphics don't matter, because it does, but the line of argument made that in a few years time, graphics will overpower everything, isn't very convincing to me, because its been said before. It also implicitly assumes people care the most about graphics in a few years, which also isn't true. The use of the wiimote/touch screen will follow the same curve as system graphics. You'll have 1st, 2nd and late generation uses of wiimotes.

It's also a cop out argument, anything can happen in a few years time and the life of a thread on GAF is a few weeks, chances are most people will forget by then, so people are free to make these kinds of red herring arguments. You get the occasional crow eating thread, but its still rare and the threar of being called on bad predictions small unless your a minor celebrity poster.

The difference here is that in all console generations past, the graphics abilities of console A vs B (vs C) is relatively similar. This gen, Nintendo made a bold statement with the Wii saying graphics really don't matter as much and it's about gameplay. The difference we're going to start seeing with PS3 and 360 graphics versus the Wii is going to be far more substantial in the next few years and that's bound to have a larger impact on what gamers choose to support/play/buy/whatever. It'll be far greater than that of people that were on the fence over PS2 vs Xbox.

There is no singular "unwashed masses". The Wii in part is also I think part of a growing back lash to modern gaming. A lot of people simply don't like modern games or have a negative stigma towards it.

Or on the other hand, a lot of people are ready for a more casual game machine that they can just sit back and just chill out with. Japan is ripe for this, I think Europe and North America have a sizable segment that will also follow suit.

Also in 2-3 years the Wii will be $99.99 most likely, and if they have a good mix of gamer + non-gamer content that machine is going to sell like hot cakes no matter what. The PS2 will outsell the 360 this year worldwide and quite possibly in North America too. Watch.

1. This "untapped market" is still not proven and there's no way to state that Nintendo was right with this strategy yet so I wouldn't go tooting that horn just yet. I'm not saying they've failed either. I just keep having to reiterate that we cannot gauge anything based on the Wii's launch success.

2. Wii will NOT be 99 bucks in 2-3 years so that point is moot.

 

[shuri]

 

[Nightstick11]

If history has shown us anything, it's that online games and graphics simply do not matter. As in, they are utterly irrelevant. The "winner" of each generation has never been the console with the most powerful graphics.

For crying out loud, we've had online since the X-band, and if Xbox Live shows us anything, it's that the majority of gamers do not care for online games. What was the Xbox Live adoption rate last generation, like 2 or 3 million users out of 20 million or so? Online gaming is rather irrelevant to the future of console gaming. Sure, it may be a nice perk for FPS fans, but unless there is a huge console MMORPG hit in the vein of World of Warcraft, online gaming isn't essential for primacy.

As far as graphics go, those are irrelevant too. It's too far away to talk about the effects of graphics four or five years from now. There's a chance the PS3 or the Xbox360 might be barely hanging around years from now, sort of like the PSP. But if precedents have shown us anything, it is that graphics do not matter. NES vs. Master/Turbo Gfx 16, SNES vs. Neo Geo/3D0/Jaguar/Genesis, Playstation vs. N64, Playstation 2 vs. GCN/Xbox, Gameboy vs. Gamegear, DS vs. PSP, etc. etc. Graphics have never mattered.

If anything is going to screw Nintendo up, it's going to be their software. They better get 3rd parties to commit and sign on board to fill in the gaps. And to achieve dominance in Japan. No console was ever number one without being number one in Japan.

I don't think games like Big Brain Academy will work on the Wii, but I guess only time will tell. It took the DS a while to get rolling with innovative games, so I'm guessing it'll be a year before we see more jaw-dropping ways the wiimote is utilized.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

The difference here is that in all console generations past, the graphics abilities of console A vs B (vs C) is relatively similar. This gen, Nintendo made a bold statement with the Wii saying graphics really don't matter as much and it's about gameplay. The difference we're going to start seeing with PS3 and 360 graphics versus the Wii is going to be far more substantial in the next few years and that's bound to have a larger impact on what gamers choose to support/play/buy/whatever. It'll be far greater than that of people that were on the fence over PS2 vs Xbox.

Enter WiiHD. Won't "save" Nintendo from the "almighty" graphics of competing systems, but it should appease those who want a lil' more. There's already plans for WiiDVD afterall and I seriously doubt Nintendo will sit on Wii technology for a full 5 years without pulling another upgrade as in their portable sector. Yeah, won't be an end-all solution, but will they even need such a solution when Wii has the potential to STILL be selling well despite it being underpowered?

Also, I notice that you and many other keep telling us (N-TARDZ) to stop comparing NDS to Wii. I'm sure that Nintendo has been and will be moving towards a console/portable hybrid which will further strengthen the Nintendo fan's stance on that argument. Doesn't really apply to now, but in a nearer future than you may think...I think this will be a big factor in Nintendo's business and expansion. What publisher WOULDN'T make games for a system that can simultaneously reach the home & portable markets at the same time?

 

[underfooter]

Lesser graphics = Lesser price.


Price has a been huge selling point for wii. I hear it broughten up all the time, and especially in contrast to PS3's price. Wii is going to be getting very cheap, in two years it could be down to 129.99 and if it has the fun games who cares about graphics.

I predict the price won't be dropping and wii sports will stay in the deal for quite some time.

 

[.dmc]

The difference here is that in all console generations past, the graphics abilities of console A vs B (vs C) is relatively similar. This gen, Nintendo made a bold statement with the Wii saying graphics really don't matter as much and it's about gameplay. The difference we're going to start seeing with PS3 and 360 graphics versus the Wii is going to be far more substantial in the next few years and that's bound to have a larger impact on what gamers choose to support/play/buy/whatever. It'll be far greater than that of people that were on the fence over PS2 vs Xbox.

Realistically, if Wii is succesful enough to sell 40-50million consoles does it matter that 20-30million consumers choose from the competition on the basis of graphics? What Nintendo has done, fairly bloody brilliantly, is tiered the market by offering a cheap, pick up & play alternative. It puts them in a great position to capture the singstar/sims/nintendogs market who don't give a rats arse about graphics, a market that in the past only latched onto a console after it has reached a massmarket price.

So the 70% of Playstation customers who bought in after the ps1/2 dropped under $200? A large percentage of them could be long gone before either the x360 or ps3 can reach that price. And even though the visual gap will be getting bigger + bigger, I don't think they'll jump ship mid-gen. There is a reason that very few people are buying 360's for Madden/Fifa/PES/NFS, and it's because you can get the same games on much cheaper consoles, and most consumers don't care about that gap in visual fidelity.

Anyway, back to point.. because of the phenomenal success of the ps2 in capturing all markets & all gamers I think we keep looking for the 'winner' of the next-gen to emulate that success. But what if each console captures a different market, and the division ends up being more like 40/30/30? If that's the case Nintendo could stand to gain a good 10-20million customers at least. And should that happen then they are going to be too busy swimming in money to care that they lost 20million potential customers to the competition on the basis of graphics.

 

[Mr_Furious]

Also, I notice that you and many other keep telling us (N-TARDZ) to stop comparing NDS to Wii. I'm sure that Nintendo has been and will be moving towards a console/portable hybrid which will further strengthen the Nintendo fan's stance on that argument. Doesn't really apply to now, but in a nearer future than you may think...I think this will be a big factor in Nintendo's business and expansion. What publisher WOULDN'T make games for a system that can simultaneously reach the home & portable markets at the same time?

I never called anyone a "N-TARD". I happen to love Nintendo and own a Wii, DS, GBA-SP, GC, N64 and SNES.

But anyways, I don't know if such a market exists for a hybrid portable/home console. I think they are of two different mindsets and people have grown acustomed to keeping both seperate. We've seen the GB Player add-on for the GC where you can play your GBA games on a TV and that wasn't successful (I know that's not necessarily the same but it can provide some indication on the home vs portable market).

 

[Branduil]

Realistically, if Wii is succesful enough to sell 40-50million consoles does it matter that 20-30million consumers choose from the competition on the basis of graphics? What Nintendo has done, fairly bloody brilliantly, is tiered the market by offering a cheap, pick up & play alternative. It puts them in a great position to capture the singstar/sims/nintendogs market who don't give a rats arse about graphics, a market that in the past only latched onto a console after it has reached a massmarket price.

So the 70% of Playstation customers who bought in after the ps1/2 dropped under $200? A large percentage of them could be long gone before either the x360 or ps3 can reach that price. And even though the visual gap will be getting bigger + bigger, I don't think they'll jump ship mid-gen. There is a reason that very few people are buying 360's for Madden/Fifa/PES/NFS, and it's because you can get the same games on much cheaper consoles, and most consumers don't care about that gap in visual fidelity.

Anyway, back to point.. because of the phenomenal success of the ps2 in capturing all markets & all gamers I think we keep looking for the 'winner' of the next-gen to emulate that success. But what if each console captures a different market, and the division ends up being more like 40/30/30? If that's the case Nintendo could stand to gain a good 10-20million customers at least. And should that happen then they are going to be too busy swimming in money to care that they lost 20million potential customers to the competition on the basis of graphics.

Excellent post.

I think you've hit on a large part of Nintendo's strategy- stealing all the casual buyers who bought a PS2 late in its life-cycle. If Nintendo is able to get them, and is able to release a steady stream of games targetting them, they will "win."

 

[Mr_Furious]

Realistically, if Wii is succesful enough to sell 40-50million consoles does it matter that 20-30million consumers choose from the competition on the basis of graphics? What Nintendo has done, fairly bloody brilliantly, is tiered the market by offering a cheap, pick up & play alternative. It puts them in a great position to capture the singstar/sims/nintendogs market who don't give a rats arse about graphics, a market that in the past only latched onto a console after it has reached a massmarket price.

So the 70% of Playstation customers who bought in after the ps1/2 dropped under $200? A large percentage of them could be long gone before either the x360 or ps3 can reach that price. And even though the visual gap will be getting bigger + bigger, I don't think they'll jump ship mid-gen. There is a reason that very few people are buying 360's for Madden/Fifa/PES/NFS, and it's because you can get the same games on much cheaper consoles, and most consumers don't care about that gap in visual fidelity.

Anyway, back to point.. because of the phenomenal success of the ps2 in capturing all markets & all gamers I think we keep looking for the 'winner' of the next-gen to emulate that success. But what if each console captures a different market, and the division ends up being more like 40/30/30? If that's the case Nintendo could stand to gain a good 10-20million customers at least. And should that happen then they are going to be too busy swimming in money to care that they lost 20million potential customers to the competition on the basis of graphics.

Brand loyalty will keep the majority of all MS/Sony/Nintendo console owners returning. Seeing Sony as the vast majority winner for last-gen, means they've got the most to lose this gen. Out of the 3 I believe that Nintendo and Sony have taken the largest risks with their new consoles but Nintendo is in a better position to have it pay off for them than Sony.

Ultimately, I don't think Nintendo will be "screwed" per se this generation but I still am concerned about how their going to maintain Wii interest after the novelty wears off (again, I'm thinking long-term here and that doesn't mean 07. I'm thinking 08-09). Although their system is the cheapest next-gen offering, it's still not cheap. It's only cheap compared to 360/PS3.

 

[Xavien]

*double post, damn server*

 

[Xavien]

This is true. Nintendo's PR department deserves a raise. Since really about E3 they haven't done anything wrong.

And this is the same company that five years ago couldn't even market a Mario game properly.

I think the improvement of advertising for Nintendo (massively so) is probably to do with Iwata and Reggie becoming head of NCL and NoA respectively, they know how to run a company and how to market a product effectively, they also seem to be good at managing people. Something the former head of NoA sorely lacked imho.

Now all we need is a competent CEO of NoE and I'm sure they'll do fine marketing wise.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

I never called anyone a "N-TARD". I happen to love Nintendo and own a Wii, DS, GBA-SP, GC, N64 and SNES.

But anyways, I don't know if such a market exists for a hybrid portable/home console. I think they are of two different mindsets and people have grown acustomed to keeping both seperate. We've seen the GB Player add-on for the GC where you can play your GBA games on a TV and that wasn't successful (I know that's not necessarily the same but it can provide some indication on the home vs portable market).

I know you didn't call me or "us" that, but I was just saying that in general...wasn't pointing any fingers, again...I didn't mean it like that, it was just sort of a general statement.

As far as the hybrid goes...things are getting smaller and are converging. In technological trending countries like Japan & America...portable is the "in" thing and I don't see that going away. Not suggesting that Nintendo will bring the console experience to portables...more that portables are going to become more prevelant and making a system that could either: A) play the same games at home or on the go or B) making a system that could be played on the go or at home by menas of a home theater "kit" is probably a part of thier ultimate future strategy.

The main problem, of course, is storing game data. Disc media is higher capacity & cheaper to produce, but it's not the best for portables. Then there's interchangability issues between how the games are played in portable or home form of course, but Nintendo could do it.. I think it'd be ironic/funny yet somewhat benificial for Nintendo to somehow ditch disc's in favor of solid state!

 

[.dmc]

Ultimately, I don't think Nintendo will be "screwed" per se this generation but I still am concerned about how their going to maintain Wii interest after the novelty wears off (again, I'm thinking long-term here and that doesn't mean 07. I'm thinking 08-09). Although their system is the cheapest next-gen offering, it's still not cheap. It's only cheap compared to 360/PS3.

All they have to do is release Nintendogs/Brain Age style hits (ie. games that could not be done on any other system) & the 'novelty' will be perpetuated for the whole lifecycle.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The difference we're going to start seeing with PS3 and 360 graphics versus the Wii is going to be far more substantial in the next few years

How do you figure the graphical difference will become more substantial than the difference between Wii Sports and Gears of War?

 

[Lapsed]

I think having such a profitable pillar makes it possible for Nintendo to take risks such as the Wii and not conform to what the market wants in an effort to penetrate a potentially untapped market.

What is this risk you speak of? There is little financial risk with the Wii.

Oh, I am silly! You are making the common mistake to think that video games are in the technology business when, in fact, they are in the entertainment business. Seeing how the PS2 is outselling the Xbox 360 for the last year, I think it is clear that most consumers do not find this 'graphics leap' to be a leap of 'entertainment value'.

In an entertainment context, the Wii is not risky. The entertainment business is dependent on surprise. What is more surprising to the consumer, the wii-mote or a graphics upgrade?

Can everyone please stop comparing home console markets to that of portable. They are apples to oranges and require different strategies for market success.

I must add this to my list of 'GAFisms'.

The reason why you can compare home console markets and portables is because they are both in the entertainment business. You can even compare the console market to the movie market (Nintendo does: see Reggie's 'Masters of Hollywood' speech. Kojima even does this). Industry experts also frequently compare consoles with television.

Everyone thinks Nintendo's new strategy is the "Blue Ocean Strategy". This is actually only one half of it. The second half is this book:

Video games only use technology to entertain like how magicians use smoke and mirrors to entertain. Sony and MS are relying on the standard uses for console entertainment: more graphics and horsepower. This leads to an eventual overshooting of the market (lol at the $400 and $600 price tags).

This becomes an opening for a disruptor. The Wii's unique interactivity, affordibility, ease of use, open it up as a solution to people who believe the PS3 and MS have overshot them. The Disruption Strategy is a growth strategy. The Ipod is a perfect example. The Walkman kept being upgraded incrementally, but the Ipod, which was not the 'best' music player, was extremely simple to use and rose in sales. As the Ipod rose, the Walkman became more and more irrelevant. In a similiar way, when the DS rose, the PSP also became more and more irrelevant. Disruptive platforms grow the market while traditional platforms become seen as more and more archaic. The Ipod example is a good one because, not only is the Wii copying it with aesthetics and the i-tunes store, the company that got disrupted was Sony.

To everyone who believes that, if the Wii has a good early start, it will flounder because the PS3 and Xbox 360 will come down in price and have "OMG" graphics, you should read THIS. This analyst immediately recognizes the Wii as being a disruptive platform. However, he is not up to date on Nintendo's speeches. Let me quote him:

I don't know whether Nintendo (OTC BB: NTDOY.CC) executives read Christensen's book, but their new Wii video game console seems every inch a classic example of disruptive technology.

Not only have Nintendo executives read Christensen's book, they mention how Wii (or 'Revolution') is a disruptive platform in every speech they make. Reggie even brags how he got to meet Christensen in person. Interestingly, the executives define the DS as more of an 'innovative' system with the Wii being 'disruptive'. Reggie: "Disrupt or be disrupted."

What this means is that if the Wii were to gain traction, both the PS3 and Xbox 360 would become disrupted. As is common with disruption, the companies on the losing side get unfairly blamed for incompetence. GAF blames Sony incompetence for the fate of the PSP. But Sony did everything they could. People are beginning to wrongly blame MS and Sony incompetence for the cracks beginning to widen now with their platforms. It is like blaming Sony for their walkman woes because of the Ipod, or traditional bookstores for falling sales because of Amazon.com.

Disruptive products usually fare poorly in the market at first. Wii's successful early adoption must have those at Nintendo singing (the Ipod or Blackberry never had interest like this when they first launched). It just goes to show how badly the console market needed disruption.

Unless one knows "The Innovater's Dillemma", one will be completely in the dark of Nintendo's strategy. Everyone interested in the sales should check it out.

 

[Sharky]

Wii's probably going to win, but by selling to millions of girls who play it a few times then throw it in the closet.

I predict it will have the lowest attach rate in history.

I think people like the idea of how fun motion control sounds than the reality (which is that it's not very accurate).

Plenty of people will buy wii because it "seems" fun. That's really all you need, to get people to purchase one time. Sadly, you dont really have to deliver the goods after that.

Lets not forget the Wii is basically incompatible with HDTV's (sure you can do it..looks like crap)

Think in three or four years, we'll be talking about Halo 4. Just imagine what kind of games and graphics PS3/360 will be pumping out by then. In 2-3 years is when I predict 360/PS3 really begin to dominate. We haven't even explored the awesome RTS's that can be done on these systems. Or the online stuff being fully utilized.

Even if the Wii is a giant hit, I just dont care. If current sales figures tell us anything, it's that all three consoles are likely to succeed. The point is Wii is NOT going to kill off or arguably even damage the other two. Wii sold big this Christmas..360 sold even more (yes I know Wii had limited supply). People are not refuting either experience.

Personaly, I just dont care about the Wii. I dont care if it sells 100 billion. As long as it doesn't kill off PS3, 360, and PC gaming, it's irrelevant too me. Not interested. Maybe I will be interested when Mario comes out, or it drops to $99. But only as a secondary experience.

Basically, Wii is not a true videogame system in my eyes. It does whatever it wants, it's like ipod. It's a toy. I will worry about the true systems.

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

^^^^^

The next 5 years are going to be very rough for you.

 

[AndoCalrissian]

Buy Capcom and some big Square exclusives. I don't know if they'd "win", but that would please me.

 

[Xavien]

Wii's probably going to win, but by selling to millions of girls who play it a few times then throw it in the closet.

I predict it will have the lowest attach rate in history.

I think people like the idea of how fun motion control sounds than the reality (which is that it's not very accurate).

Plenty of people will buy wii because it "seems" fun. That's really all you need, to get people to purchase one time. Sadly, you dont really have to deliver the goods after that.

Lets not forget the Wii is basically incompatible with HDTV's (sure you can do it..looks like crap)

Think in three or four years, we'll be talking about Halo 4. Just imagine what kind of games and graphics PS3/360 will be pumping out by then. In 2-3 years is when I predict 360/PS3 really begin to dominate. We haven't even explored the awesome RTS's that can be done on these systems. Or the online stuff being fully utilized.

Even if the Wii is a giant hit, I just dont care. If current sales figures tell us anything, it's that all three consoles are likely to succeed. The point is Wii is NOT going to kill off or arguably even damage the other two. Wii sold big this Christmas..360 sold even more (yes I know Wii had limited supply). People are not refuting either experience.

Personaly, I just dont care about the Wii. I dont care if it sells 100 billion. As long as it doesn't kill off PS3, 360, and PC gaming, it's irrelevant too me. Not interested. Maybe I will be interested when Mario comes out, or it drops to $99. But only as a secondary experience.

Basically, Wii is not a true videogame system in my eyes. It does whatever it wants, it's like ipod. It's a toy. I will worry about the true systems.

Have we seen the rise of a new term? the non-console or non-system for all the non-games that are on it? :lol

Its a videogame system, just because you don't like the games and control method it offers, doesn't make it any-less of a videogame system. Its like saying a car maker makes non-cars because the only thing they make are cars with automatic transmissions and that you need a manual transmission to be a "true" car, ludicrous reasoning, but this is GAF.

 

[Sharky]

^^^^^

The next 5 years are going to be very rough for you.

Bring it on. I aint scared.

The problem is you're trying to make this a competition, and I'm telling you it isn't. Nintendo dropped out of the competition. They're selling an ipod now. I like Ipod's. They sell good. I dont care about them in regards to videogames.

And you know what, Wii can be disrupted too. I read a post on some message board a few days ago that was something like : "I love my wii, but playing Rainbow Six Vegas on my cousins 360 on his 52" plasma HDTV blew my mind! I have to admit I cant get that on the Wii. I will have to get a 360 now" (or something like that), I dont recall his exact wording.

Different experiences..