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[Mr_Furious]

I genuinely believe Nintendo's potential problems are how they're going to keep their Wii from aging. With every new year, games are inevitably going to look better and better on competing systems yet the Wii is already running on dated hardware. Sure the tech offers up original gameplay options but the graphics will not be acceptable, long term.

My only concern for Wii's continued success is when Grand Theft Auto IV comes out. When GTA comes out in October, it probably cause controversy as usual, but people will notice that it is only for PS3 and Xbox 360. That is when Nintendo may be labeled with the "kiddie" image again. Maybe not, but it might be something to think about.

Nintendo will always have the "kiddie" or "toy" stigma. They've tried to shake it by releasing more mature content in the past and we all know how well that turned out.

 

[Branduil]

PS3 needs to go down by at least 200 dollars so I can afford it when Ueda's next game comes out.

 

[soundwave05]

The Wii is a dramatically different type of product for the gaming industry in general, so comparing it directly to even the 360/PS3 doesn't make a lot of sense.

The Wii is the only system under $300 and most importantly with a motion sening controller that can bring back the old pick-up-and-play appeal of games like Pac-Man/Frogger/Super Mario Bros. etc. that everyone loved back in the day.

So no, I don't believe the PS3/360 really have as much direct bearing on the Wii as people think. This is not the GamCube Vs. PS2 Vs. XBox anymore.

The Wii's appeal is unique, just like for someone going to the movie theater who wants to see a comedy ... if they want to see a comedy, they'll see a comedy, not some sci-fi movie that you might think is better written/directed/acted, whatever. You can stand at the door and try to convince people that the movie you like is better, but if that's not what that person is looking for ... it's pointless.

 

[usea]

If you ask me, and any other sane person on the internet, it doesn't matter how much profit Nintendo make or how much they benefit from being a hardware manufacturer, they WILL go third party if they don't have the most market share after this generation.

I'm completely baffled by this comment. Are you serious, or is it a joke? What line of logic could POSSIBLY bring a person to that conclusion? It makes absolutely no sense at all.

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

The Wii is a dramatically different type of product for the gaming industry in general, so comparing it directly to even the 360/PS3 doesn't make a lot of sense.

The Wii is the only system under $300 and most importantly with a motion sening controller that can bring back the old pick-up-and-play appeal of games like Pac-Man/Frogger/Super Mario Bros. etc. that everyone loved back in the day.

So no, I don't believe the PS3/360 really have as much direct bearing on the Wii as people think. This is not the GamCube Vs. PS2 Vs. XBox anymore.

The Wii's appeal is unique, just like for someone going to the movie theater who wants to see a comedy ... if they want to see a comedy, they'll see a comedy, not some sci-fi movie that you might think is better written/directed/acted, whatever. You can stand at the door and try to convince people that the movie you like is better, but if that's not what that person is looking for ... it's pointless.

That is a brilliant post, and was obviously well thought-out. Thank-you!

 

[mrmojo]

Interesting thread. I don't think the DS is going anywhere, though if Sony releases a ridiculously cheap redesigned PSP it might have problems, but even then I think Nintendo would be very hard pushed to have the DS tank for them.

The main problem to me is that the Wii is horribly overpriced - the Gamecube probably cost a lot, lot more to product when it first came out yet was priced at ~2/3rds of what the Wii is priced at. I mean let's be honest, the Wii is an overclocked gamecube with a bluetooth receiver and a bit more RAM tacked on. These things should cost next to nothing to produce, especially as they are using industry-standard DVD drives now and no hard drive.

For all the shit Sony gets here for the price, at least you get a lot for your money. Bluray, a hard drive, a technically outstanding processor, etc. The value proposition for the wii imo is a lot worse.

Having said that, the DS and the iPod are both very expensive/high profit margin products and they sell extremely well. So maybe it won't be a big problem. However, Nintendo is trying to go from last place here, which wasn't the case with the DS and iPod.

 

[mrmojo]

The Wii's appeal is unique, just like for someone going to the movie theater who wants to see a comedy ... if they want to see a comedy, they'll see a comedy, not some sci-fi movie that you might think is better written/directed/acted, whatever. You can stand at the door and try to convince people that the movie you like is better, but if that's not what that person is looking for ... it's pointless.

I'm not convinced by this argument. How many people go to the movies to see 'a comedy' without a particular movie in mind? Really, this is more an argument for a system having a certain title exclusive to it which IMO would be against the Wii since the ps3 and 360 are getting all the 'blockbuster' third party titles.

Anyway, this argument doesn't even hold up on face value since the internet definitely does not directly compete with TV and movies, yet TV and movie viewership is falling because people are spending more time on the internet instead of watching movies and tv.

 

[Brak]

In terms of Wii launch being 200K less than GCN launch in USA, I think that can be attributed 100% to the worldwide launch. Nintendo couldn't dump all of the systems on NA like with the GCN. Demand is high in Europe and Japan for the Wii which was certainly not the case for the GCN.

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

Nice title change.

Again.

I'd sure like to know who keeps doing that to my threads...

 

[Y2Kev]

Nice thread title change.

Again.

I'd sure like to know who keeps doing that to my threads.

Your threads are just so perfect for title changes.

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

Your threads are just so perfect for title changes.

How so?

 

[Odysseus]

Nice title change.

Again.

I'd sure like to know who keeps doing that to my threads...

it's them cheat codes

 

[soundwave05]

I'm not convinced by this argument. How many people go to the movies to see 'a comedy' without a particular movie in mind? Really, this is more an argument for a system having a certain title exclusive to it which IMO would be against the Wii since the ps3 and 360 are getting all the 'blockbuster' third party titles.

Anyway, this argument doesn't even hold up on face value since the internet definitely does not directly compete with TV and movies, yet TV and movie viewership is falling because people are spending more time on the internet instead of watching movies and tv.

Well I'll use a basic example then -- if a person wants to see something more "fun" like say Austin Powers or American Pie, you're not going to be able to sit there and convince them to go see ... say The Matrix Reloaded or something, especailly if they've been looking forward to seeing the aforementioned comedy in advance.

And that chasm for games is even higher because a game console costs $200+, not $8 for a movie ticket.

The PS3/360 cannot replicate the appeal or the price point of the Wii right now, nor do they have the content right now that could back such a strategy.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

Who's the mod with the Nintendo vendetta? :lol

 

[citrus lump]

How so?

DrGAKMAN isn't around enough anymore. You're the new whipping boy.

 

[Brak]

Who's the mod with the Nintendo vendetta? :lol

mod, as in singular, BWAHAAHAAHAHAHAHAH

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

DrGAKMAN isn't around enough anymore. You're the new whipping boy.

Well, we'll see how many people actually take that opportunity -- I doubt it'll be as many as you'd like.

 

[Parl]

Too bad it will be impossible to disprove, since Nintendo is going to crush Sony and Microsoft this generation. :lol :lol :lol

Also too bad I was doing a parody of the many people who said Nintendo will go third party (as they did not know Nintendo still maintained healthy profits from home consoles).

 

[citrus lump]

Well, we'll see how many people actually take that opportunity -- I doubt it'll be as many as you'd like.

Do you own any graph paper?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

what "more and newer users" bought the Wii so far. LOL.

most buyers are nintendo fans who were buying whatever nintendo sold at launch. Owned every system to date and still own both the DS large and DS lite

Did the number of Nintendo fanboys dramatically increase since 2001?

I genuinely believe Nintendo's potential problems are how they're going to keep their Wii from aging. With every new year, games are inevitably going to look better and better on competing systems yet the Wii is already running on dated hardware. Sure the tech offers up original gameplay options but the graphics will not be acceptable, long term.

Will X360 and PS3 games look even more impressive than they do today? Of course. But look at the most popular Wii launch games worldwide: Wii Sports and Wii Play are about as graphically simple as you can get, and Twilight Princess is a GameCube game with a 16:9 mode as its only notable graphical addition. Clearly with the improvements made over GameCube Wii is capable of a lot more, so I think the Wii games of 3 years from now will seem at least as improved as the X360 and PS3 games. If many people are willing to overlook the graphical difference now, I don't see why three years of improvement all around will halt that.

Additionally, a console's ultimate fate is pretty well decided by the time it's had 2 or 3 years to grow its userbase. If Wii does well for a few years, it's a bit late for Hot Game 2009 on PS3 to put a lid on it.

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

Do you own any graph paper?

One more on the ignored list...

 

[Mr_Furious]

The Wii is a dramatically different type of product for the gaming industry in general, so comparing it directly to even the 360/PS3 doesn't make a lot of sense.

The Wii is the only system under $300 and most importantly with a motion sening controller that can bring back the old pick-up-and-play appeal of games like Pac-Man/Frogger/Super Mario Bros. etc. that everyone loved back in the day.

So no, I don't believe the PS3/360 really have as much direct bearing on the Wii as people think. This is not the GamCube Vs. PS2 Vs. XBox anymore.

The Wii's appeal is unique, just like for someone going to the movie theater who wants to see a comedy ... if they want to see a comedy, they'll see a comedy, not some sci-fi movie that you might think is better written/directed/acted, whatever. You can stand at the door and try to convince people that the movie you like is better, but if that's not what that person is looking for ... it's pointless.

The problem is that it's mainly the informed gamer who knows this. The unwashed masses do not and it is they that decide which console wins each generation. I find it hard to believe 2-3 years from now when both the PS3 and 360 have phenominal looking games to offer sitting on the shelf next to the Wii's offerings, people are going to naturally be drawn to the Wii based solely on the controller.

 

[AniHawk]

So Anihawk, maybe you have a theory on this: why is it that 'Cube/Wii sales seem to have flipped in the US/Japan territories? This is like the exact opposite of the Gamecube launch. Is it maybe the success of DS? PS3's price? Just want your opinion.

Demand in both regions is higher than what it was for Gamecube. The problem with sales is supply-related, and Nintendo simply supplied NA with less systems than they did with the GC.

 

[Branduil]

I really think Nintendo could have sold 6 million worldwide by the end of the year if they had been able to ship that many.

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

Demand in both regions is higher than what it was for Gamecube. The problem with sales is supply-related, and Nintendo simply supplied NA with less systems than they did with the GC.

Ah, I see. So there's no real difference in popularity, just supply.

 

[replicashooter]

I don't see any screwage on the horizon for the forthcoming future.

I do see Wii2 in 2009.

 

[Deku]

The problem is that it's mainly the informed gamer who knows this. The unwashed masses do not and it is they that decide which console wins each generation. I find it hard to believe 2-3 years from now when both the PS3 and 360 have phenominal looking games to offer sitting on the shelf next to the Wii's offerings, people are going to naturally be drawn to the Wii based solely on the controller.

After gears this year I'm having trouble following your logic. The graphical difference is obvious even to the most casual observer.

The line of argument you are following, which is basically, wait a few years and the graphics of the competition will overpower the Wii, is not new. It was said for the DS, but the DS had a tremendous 2nd year and rival's graphical strengths matter less and less each day.

Ultimately, what will doom Nintendo is not Sony or Microsoft, it's Nintendo. I know it sounds cliche and trite, but its true. The GAF doomsaying tendency is to play up the threat from without 'OMG, Dark Lord Sauron marches upon the white city' prophecies, where as with the history of the fall of any large organization (ie: empire, corporate dominance of a market), the weakness usually comes from within, starting with a flawed strategy.

 

[Odysseus]

I really think Nintendo could have sold 6 million worldwide by the end of the year if they had been able to ship that many.

i believe every man, woman, and child would have bought two of them had they been able to

 

[Mr_Furious]

Will X360 and PS3 games look even more impressive than they do today? Of course. But look at the most popular Wii launch games worldwide: Wii Sports and Wii Play are about as graphically simple as you can get, and Twilight Princess is a GameCube game with a 16:9 mode as its only notable graphical addition. Clearly with the improvements made over GameCube Wii is capable of a lot more, so I think the Wii games of 3 years from now will seem at least as improved as the X360 and PS3 games. If many people are willing to overlook the graphical difference now, I don't see why three years of improvement all around will halt that.

Additionally, a console's ultimate fate is pretty well decided by the time it's had 2 or 3 years to grow its userbase. If Wii does well for a few years, it's a bit late for Hot Game 2009 on PS3 to put a lid on it.

I wouldn't base long term success on a launch. Once people are over the "honeymoon" period, I think we'll see a change in sales patterns.

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

After gears this year I'm having trouble following your logic. The graphical difference is obvious even to the most casual observer.

The line of argument you are following, which is basically, wait a few years and the graphics of the competition will overpower the Wii, is not new. It was said for the DS, but the DS had a tremendous 2nd year and rival's graphical strengths matter less and less each day.

Ultimately, what will doom Nintendo is not Sony or Microsoft, it's Nintendo. I know it sounds cliche and trite, but its true. The GAF doomsaying tendency is to play up the thread from without 'OMG, Dark Lord Sauron marches upon the white city' prophecies, where as in history, the weakness usually comes from within, starting with a flawed strategy.

Exactly. Even the GBA -- technology that is over a decade old -- manages to outsell the PSP.

The graphics arguement holds no water at this point.

 

[Stink]

I don't think online gaming will have much effect on whatever the fate of Nintendo is. The numbers elsewhere don't add up.

 

[Parl]

I think Wii will be VERY popular. But I think Nintendo's concern is that the new gamers might move onto more core systems like PS3 and 360 after they've learned how to play games on Wii and play through quite a few party like stuff..

Nintendo should make sure that those enticed by Wii and not the other two REMAIN THAT WAY. So they should forecast the trends of these new gamers to see what they look for after their initial phases, and then make sure they've got that kinda content on the Wii, too.

I'm sure Nintendo has addressed this long ago, however.

Gamers who have been casual for ges will probably emain casual and if they're not too fond of 360 and PS3 to begin with, they prolly won't be in several years from now. Same with lapsed gamers; they prolly left gaming because of its complexity and the fall of "play for 10-20 minutesness" with the rise of the PlayStation.

 

[AniHawk]

I think Nintendo should do what Pachter suggests.

Get Wii going. Support it for a couple years. Then make games for PS360 to get fans that way, and then launch the new system! Everybody wins!

 

[beelzebozo]

the thread title changes are becoming a bit much.

 

[Odysseus]

I think Wii will be VERY popular. But I think Nintendo's concern is that the new gamers might move onto more core systems like PS3 and 360 after they've learned how to play games on Wii and play through quite a few party like stuff..

Nintendo should make sure that those enticed by Wii and not the other two REMAIN THAT WAY. So they should forecast the trends of these new gamers to see what they look for after their initial phases, and then make sure they've got that kinda content on the Wii, too.

I'm sure Nintendo has addressed this long ago, however.

Gamers who have been casual for ges will probably emain casual and if they're not too fond of 360 and PS3 to begin with, they prolly won't be in several years from now. Same with lapsed gamers; they prolly left gaming because of its complexity and the fall of "play for 10-20 minutesness" with the rise of the PlayStation.

what's more likely to happen is that those non-gamers will continue to just non-game

 

[plagiarize]

if and when drohne finds a magic lamp... that's really the only way i see nintendo being screwed this generation

 

[dirtmonkey37]

time

Nice one. I don't necesarily agree, but I won't doubt that your post is clever.

 

[Parl]

The problem is that it's mainly the informed gamer who knows this. The unwashed masses do not and it is they that decide which console wins each generation. I find it hard to believe 2-3 years from now when both the PS3 and 360 have phenominal looking games to offer sitting on the shelf next to the Wii's offerings, people are going to naturally be drawn to the Wii based solely on the controller.

I agree with this. But I believe that people are going to naturally be drawn to the Wii based on the controller and the phenominally appealing games.

 

[Deku]

Exactly. Even the GBA -- technology that is over a decade old -- manages to outsell the PSP.

The graphics arguement holds no water at this point.

Except I wouldn't draw on this exact analogy. because you'll have gaffers spazzing. Besides the comparison is unfair. GBA is an established platform that is a great value to most consumers. Large library, lots of games and shovelware for the casuals and kids, and its a known quantity to a lot of consumers.

The point isn't that graphics don't matter, because it does, but the line of argument made that in a few years time, graphics will overpower everything, isn't very convincing to me, because its been said before. It also implicitly assumes people care the most about graphics in a few years, which also isn't true. The use of the wiimote/touch screen will follow the same curve as system graphics. You'll have 1st, 2nd and late generation uses of wiimotes.

It's also a cop out argument, anything can happen in a few years time and the life of a thread on GAF is a few weeks, chances are most people will forget by then, so people are free to make these kinds of red herring arguments. You get the occasional crow eating thread, but its still rare and the threar of being called on bad predictions small unless your a minor celebrity poster.

 

[Parl]

what's more likely to happen is that those non-gamers will continue to just non-game

I've seen non-people be enticed by real-people games many a time. They want to be real! They want to live!

 

[HAL_Laboratory]

Except I wouldn't draw on this exact analogy, because you'll have gaffers spazzing. Besides, the comparison is unfair. GBA is an establish platform that is a great value to most consumers. Large library, lots of games and shovelware for the casuals and kids, and its a known quantity to a lot of consumers.

Ah, yes... you're right about that. Bad analogy on my part.

The point isn't that graphics don't matter, because it does, but the line of argument made that in a few years time, graphics will overpower everything, isn't very convincing to me, because its been said before. It's also a cop out argument, because anything can happen in a few years time and the life of a thread on GAF is a few weeks, chances are most people will forget by then, so most people are free to make these kinds of red herring arguments. You get the occasional crow eating thread, but its still rare and the thread of being called on bad predictions small unless your a minor celebrity poster.

Agreed.

 

[Stink]

I always smile when I see people on videogame messageboards refer to casuals as 'the great unwashed'.

 

[soundwave05]

The problem is that it's mainly the informed gamer who knows this. The unwashed masses do not and it is they that decide which console wins each generation. I find it hard to believe 2-3 years from now when both the PS3 and 360 have phenominal looking games to offer sitting on the shelf next to the Wii's offerings, people are going to naturally be drawn to the Wii based solely on the controller.

There is no singular "unwashed masses". The Wii in part is also I think part of a growing back lash to modern gaming. A lot of people simply don't like modern games or have a negative stigma towards it.

Or on the other hand, a lot of people are ready for a more casual game machine that they can just sit back and just chill out with. Japan is ripe for this, I think Europe and North America have a sizable segment that will also follow suit.

Also in 2-3 years the Wii will be $99.99 most likely, and if they have a good mix of gamer + non-gamer content that machine is going to sell like hot cakes no matter what. The PS2 will outsell the 360 this year worldwide and quite possibly in North America too. Watch.

 

[Parl]

You just pulled that out of your ass. What brings you to think this?

Spoiler

*hides DS*

 

[monkeyrun]

Graphics only help you this much. If graphics is so important to general consumers, xBox would've won last gen.

btw I still hear people saying PS2 was the most powerful last gen.

 

[Chao]

Dunno, but I remember DS was in this same position when it was out. It had shitty gfx, it had a new control scheme, and there were no games besides the launch lineup.

Just thinking.

 

[farnham]

I think Nintendo should do what Pachter suggests.

Get Wii going. Support it for a couple years. Then make games for PS360 to get fans that way, and then launch the new system! Everybody wins!

:lol

you wont get many fans by ditching a console that sold well for a couple of years and supporting the competition... your next console will be a utter failure because no one will take you serious anymore..

 

[Branduil]

There is no singular "unwashed masses". The Wii in part is also I think part of a growing back lash to modern gaming. A lot of people simply don't like modern games or have a negative stigma towards it.

Or on the other hand, a lot of people are ready for a more casual game machine that they can just sit back and just chill out with. Japan is ripe for this, I think Europe and North America have a sizable segment that will also follow suit.

Also in 2-3 years the Wii will be $99.99 most likely, and if they have a good mix of gamer + non-gamer content that machine is going to sell like hot cakes no matter what. The PS2 will outsell the 360 this year worldwide and quite possibly in North America too. Watch.

The Wii won't be $99 until Nintendo is forced to lower it to that price. I mean, the PS2 still isn't $99.

 

[farnham]

PS2 was the strongest CONSOLE last year...

with PS2 staying strong many PS2 titles will be converted to the Wii..

we will see a high end expensive game market and a low end budget game market...

at least next year Wii(Exclusives and DS ports included) and PS2(exclusives included) will get more titles then X360 and PS3 (exclusives.. if there are any.. included)

 

[TheIkariWarrior]

Before the GCN even launched it was labelled as the new purple "Kidtendo" system complete with Fisher Price controller. People in & out of the industry pegged it as the 3RD place console BEFORE IT EVEN LAUNCHED. 3RD party Nintendo, GCN non-factor, PS2 this, X-BOX that, etc.

I think it's hilarious how some people are in denial of the fact that in & out of the industry...casual gamers, hardcore gamers, retailers, developers, publishers, gaming press and mainstream press are ALL openly possitive about Wii...which is the exact opposite for GCN. DENIAL kids.

Your point is that every Nintendo system launches on hype alone and that that's why they're always selling out. Untapped potential, false hope, Nintendo fans only. Wrong on all three counts 'cos we all know people are genuinly hyped about this system...even people who aren't into Nintendo and/or games. They're not standing out in line consistantly over and over 'cos it *might* be the return of Nintendo...they're doing so 'cos it IS the return of Nintendo.

Nowhere am I predicting Nintendo is the new "king" or "winner" or anything...but already I can dismiss any thought in my mind that Wii will be a repeat of GCN just going by the overall possitive outlook on the system before it launched, as it launched and even now, over a month later as it's still got hype and still selling out. This isn't the normal "new Nintendo hype" either and if you look out there close enough, you'd be blind to think this is another GCN.

From better advertising, to constant possitive PR, to new gameplay experiences, to the new simple-looking controller, to the aesthetic design and even the differentiating name and OVERALL focused approach...Nintendo is doing this system WAY better than GCN.

absolutely agreed. I expect Wii to see 40-50 million units in its lifetime, minimum.