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I was on stage at Javits Center the night Hillary lost

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Great OP, although it still feels surreal. I was waaaaaay up my own ass on Hopium(tm) and just couldn't believe we would be dumb enough to elect this guy. I should have know better since I live in Texas and interact with Trump voters constantly, becoming more grounded is something I need to work on.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
Someone actually said this?

Fucking hell, the campaign really was deluded

Consider that a month before the election it appeared like almost every republican was distancing themselves.

Based on the evidence in front of them, it was a logical move. Based on the evidence presented to the American people they should have.
 

Makonero

Member
Thanks for sharing.

The anger at Hillary around here is unacceptable IMO. Again, some of the anger is justified with regards to reasons why Trump won. But why Trump won is 7 volumes deep, and IMO only 1 of them is Hillary.

Bullfuckingshit. She lost what should have been the easiest election for a Dem since FDR. She was arrogant, shortsighted, and gambled with all of our futures and fucking lost.

She does not get off the hook for this.
 
Bullfuckingshit. She lost what should have been the easiest election for a Dem since FDR. She was arrogant, shortsighted, and gambled with all of our futures and fucking lost.

She does not get off the hook for this.

1 volume on Hillary as a cause does not mean she gets off the hook.
 

Nekofrog

Banned
To be fair, plenty were pointing out the cracks all along, but the response was like that of the scumbag mayor in Jaws.

Yeah, the unfortunate response to many people pointing out these problems was vitriol ranging from outright personal attacks that lead to being dog piled on or a complete dismissing of it by people who refused to stop drinking the yaas queen kool-aid. People so wrapped up in their own personal politics that they couldn't slow their role long enough to acknowledge and attempt to address the issues that were literally all around them.

I'm terrified that these same people who refuse to acknowledge these things to this day are going to further damage our chances at turning things around and beating back the conservative political tide in the coming years.
 
*snip

Ultimately the Javits Center was a room full of hopefuls, true believers, lots of donors and some volunteers, mostly campaign sycophants like me praying that the unease a lot of us felt wouldn't be realized. The aesthetics of the stage was a mixture of races and sexes representing the coalition: think lesbian couple, African American men, latino family, millennial buddies, it was not much fun when we all knew we were going to be up on stage to witness a funeral eulogy, the faces CNN and Fox would zoom in on later in the evening.

Either I'm wrong about the definition of sycophants or you played yourself. Being surrounded by sycophants is not good.

sycophant

(of a person or of behaviour) praising people in authority in a way that is not sincere, usually in order to get some advantage from them.
 

captainpat

Member
Bullfuckingshit. She lost what should have been the easiest election for a Dem since FDR. She was arrogant, shortsighted, and gambled with all of our futures and fucking lost.

She does not get off the hook for this.

I dunno man, Trump said so much shit that would have sunk other candidates and yet it barely had any impact.
 
FBI killed her as a candidare over nothing and I cant believe nobody is running this message (aside of hillary herself). This is outrageous and a very dangerous precedent. Next time we will see the FBI arresting the democratic candidate (woops was just a mistake) and nobody will care
 

SeanTSC

Member
The emails thing really drives me nuts, really showed me how easily even moderately intelligent people can be duped into a really stupid narrative.

My girlfriend absolutely loathes and despises Trump, but still got into the whole "BOTH SIDES" crap and STILL believes that "There's just something up with Hillary" 100% due to the emails no matter how many times that crap is disproven. It made our relationship even more difficult than it already was, because she was SO SURE.

She's from Ohio and just doesn't like her at all, but she can't point to a single thing or back any of it up and the only thing she ever had was "BUT THE EMAILS!". Literally that, nothing else, not a single damned thing else. I could calmly and non-mansplainingly point to Hillary's voting record, her policy positions, her entire career history, the emails always coming up as "its fucking nothing!" from Republican investigators... and still... "BUT THE EMAILS!"

Just, ugh.
 

qcf x2

Member
OP your account doesn't match up with any of the evidence out there. If they were so scared about Trump, why didn't they visit suburban states/counties? What polling were they referencing for that fear? If they felt it was slightly above 50/50 at best, why the fireworks and why no concession speech that night? I could go on and on. If it wasn't hubris (which I'm sorry but all signs point to hubris playing a large part in the ineffectiveness of the overall strategy) then why were they on cruise control?

And no mention of the Debbie Wasserman Schultz scandal as playing a large part in the negative perception, oh no... in fact the OP ignores her and says Bernie had a lot to do with the outcome. It's cool that you worked on something related to Hillary 12 yrs ago but your take, I don't buy it. :-\
 
Consider that a month before the election it appeared like almost every republican was distancing themselves.

Based on the evidence in front of them, it was a logical move. Based on the evidence presented to the American people they should have.

Yeah, it looks like they bought too heavily into the "it can't happen here" idea, forgetting who's really on the other side of the glass...
 

Boney

Banned
FBI killed her as a candidare over nothing and I cant believe nobody is running this message (aside of hillary herself). This is outrageous and a very dangerous precedent. Next time we will see the FBI arresting the democratic candidate (woops was just a mistake) and nobody will care
She was a candidate that was under investigation for the most part of the year. It's not like the bs reopening came out of no where.

Her other mistakes still stand despite this swaying voters and those weren't external forces.
 
OP is it true:

  • There was a fake glass ceiling set up, that they were going to "shatter" when they won
  • They told everyone they had to go home because they only rented the place out until 2am, because they didn't even consider the possibility it wouldn't be over before that
  • They didn't actually tell people in the room that was the real reason?
 
OP your account doesn't match up with any of the evidence out there.

Agreed.

OP was too close to the campaign to see things any differently. It really reads like a list of excuses and a broad brush to paint the campaign in the most sympathetic way possible, with a shot at Bernie even.

Let's assume OP is absolutely 100% right. If that's all true, that they really tried their best and thought things were heated even going into the election, it really shows how god awful their missteps are, given that there were signs that they could avoided months, even years before. States that Clinton lost to Obama and Bernie, and she just assumed she'd win, if not arrogance, is complete incompetence.
 

Meowster

Member
FBI killed her as a candidare over nothing and I cant believe nobody is running this message (aside of hillary herself). This is outrageous and a very dangerous precedent. Next time we will see the FBI arresting the democratic candidate (woops was just a mistake) and nobody will care
I'm more than willing to address HRC's mistakes (of which there were many) but the partisan hackery of the FBI is indeed a dangerous precedent that has me worried about the future. Not to mention no one even giving a shit about a foreign government (effectively) undermining our election in a scandal that should have been as big as Watergate. Makes me worried for whoever we nominate next.
 

Foffy

Banned
Agreed.

OP was too close to the campaign to see things any differently. It really reads like a list of excuses and a broad brush to paint the campaign in the most sympathetic way possible, with a shot at Bernie even.

Let's assume OP is absolutely 100% right. If that's all true, that they really tried their best and thought things were heated even going into the election, it really shows how god awful their missteps are, given that there were signs that they could avoided months, even years before. States that Clinton lost to Obama and Bernie, and she just assumed she'd win, if not arrogance, is complete incompetence.

Shouldn't the red flags have been the states she thought she'd win and lose to Bernie? Shouldn't that have been cue to course correct?

She didn't correct a thing..
 

Aylinato

Member
Did you do work in Michigan? Why did Hillary not contact most of my friends who worked in or with OFA (including myself who only got called to volunteer two weeks before the election)?


I should note I signed up to volunteer in April, and only got calls to donate money.
 

noshten

Member
+ Literally running against a person who had said vile things about more than half of the country
+ Raised 700 million
+ Outspend Trump 3:1
+ Had stuff that made up the campaign of the previous president
+ According to most had the better organization and GOTV effort

- Hillary campaign made the choice about "NotTrump" rather than why she should be president, that's the majority of her actual marketing spend went towards.
- Hillary campaign made the choice to have negative marketing - when you already have one baffon out there on TV saying outlandish things, voters don't want to hear those thing repeated they'd much rather hear a postive message
- Hillary campaign made the choice of her VP
- Hillary campaign made the choice to focus on fundraising instead of actually visiting place she would eventually end up losing
- Hillary campaign decided not to have a message for the Rust Belt
- Hillary campaign decided America is already great - certain places that make up the most ardent parts of the Democratic Party certainly can tell you America is not great and being an Obama third term without the charisma was never going to happen.


In the end I don't even blame the campaign... Hillary Clinton was always a weak candidate in the mold of Kerry, Gore, Romney... she could have easily lost to any other Republican in this field and Trump didn't do anything extrodinary in my mind. Trump was always going to get those Republican voters and anyone that denied that was living in LALALAND I said it last year that only path to Trump and Cruz was deflated voter turnout and it appeared that Team Clinton was able to deliever even what I though impossible.
 

Gin-Shiio

Member
It sure is something witnessing people on here shift from ensuring everyone of Hillary's victory to knowing her campaign messed up from start to finish which could only have ended in her losing the election. It's hard for me to take people's assertions on these things seriously at times like these.
 

Makonero

Member
It sure is something witnessing people on here shift from ensuring everyone of Hillary's victory to knowing her campaign messed up from start to finish which could only have ended in her losing the election. It's hard for me to take people's assertions on these things seriously at times like these.
Are you going to call out actual people or start accusing Gaf of being a hive mind?
 
Yes you are right about the horrible candidate part and if you read what I'm wrote I plainly state that. Where you are wrong is that she damaged the Democratic party, her husband and her and Obama BUILT the Democratic party you know today.

That's the problem. The rejection of blue collar voters and the full embrace of neoliberal policies is what destroyed the democratic party, and the Clintons carry the lion's share of the blame.
 

Skinpop

Member
Bullfuckingshit. She lost what should have been the easiest election for a Dem since FDR. She was arrogant, shortsighted, and gambled with all of our futures and fucking lost.hi

She does not get off the hook for this.

proof? yeah i know it sounds ridiculous but I have seen no convincing argument that asserts why this is true. these kind of statements only reinforce the idea that a large(but not large enough to win...) portion of the american people is out of touch with the rest of the population.

looking at the world this result follows the trend so I tend to think maybe trump winning was sort of inevitable.
 

NimbusD

Member
Had friends in the Javitz Center too. Heard it was a god damn nightmare in there and on the streets around it. As much as we all believed she was going to win, they REALLY believed it.

As for your last point, yeah she's for sure a good and just person, even if she has made mistakes. But Trump excelled this election at making his opponents just as unlikeable as him. He made people unable to get excited about their chosen candidate more than he was able to rally huge numbers around him. I think a lot of his base were people unenthusiastic about him but he was successfully able to turn Hillary's lack of charisma into just outright disgust of the woman. That's his talent, and it's a scary one for a sitting president to have.
 
I'm a little weirded out by Bernie fans who try to use campaign postmortem talk as a way to try to find restitution for getting yelled at or to express their I-told-you-sos. We should be looking forward for ways to fix the party, and Bernie's movement, message, and focus on the working class are the way forward.

Hillary supporters were reeeeeeeeeally mean to Bernie supporters.

Thanks for sharing.

The anger at Hillary around here is unacceptable IMO. Again, some of the anger is justified with regards to reasons why Trump won. But why Trump won is 7 volumes deep, and IMO only 1 of them is Hillary.

She's a garbage candidate who America rejected in 2008. The anger is not just acceptable, but justified.
 

Neoweee

Member
As for your last point, yeah she's for sure a good and just person, even if she has made mistakes. But Trump excelled this election at making his opponents just as unlikeable as him. He made people unable to get excited about their chosen candidate more than he was able to rally huge numbers around him. I think a lot of his base were people unenthusiastic about him but he was successfully able to turn Hillary's lack of charisma into just outright disgust of the woman. That's his talent, and it's a scary one for a sitting president to have.

That's a defining trait of demagogues. He is fantastic at driving wedges and dispiriting his enemies. He defeated a field of 16 Republicans, probably including one future president. The biggest mistake anyone made was underestimating him.

Fortunately, none of the skills transfer over to actual governance.

Eh. I used to work for a polling company. Polling well is really, really hard. The maths behind it is relatively simple - you have something called the central limit theorem, which says that as your sample size increases, the sample mean approaches the population mean; or, as the number of people polled increases, how they say they'll vote approaches how the population says they'll vote. Get a sample size of ~1,000 and you have a margin of error of 3% with 95% confidence - that is, 95% of the time, the sample mean will be within 3 points of the population mean.

But then...

The first problem is if the sample isn't actually randomly selected. Imagine, for example, you don't conduct your polls in Spanish. You can't possibly contact any Spanish voters, so you have a bias in your sample and you'll end up with the voting figures for the population absent Spanish voters, which might be significantly off the real result.

The main way this actually reflects itself for pollsters, though, isn't language. For this election, it was differential response rates. Basically, when we call and say "do you mind if we ask a few questions?", you only get the answer "yes" about 7% of the time. 93% of the time they just say "no" and put the phone down. That means we're not selecting randomly any more - we end up oversampling the sort of person willing to answer the questions and undersampling the sort of person who isn't willing to do, usually the politically interested and the politically disinterested respectively. Unfortunately, these two groups don't vote the same way.

The second problem is dishonesty. There's two sorts of this problem. The first is: will this person vote at all? If I asked 5 people how they'd vote, and 4 said Blue and 1 said Red, but in the election, only Red turned up, my poll would have said 80/20 but the result would be 0/100. And the trouble is: there's absolutely no way to find out what the honest answer is. Some pollsters try asking people how likely they are to vote: for example, are you 7/10 likely to vote? 8/10? and then they exclude all people below a certain bar. Unfortunately, this doesn't work as well as you might expect, because different groups are differently accurate about their self-assessments. A millennial who says they are 7/10 likely to vote is actually much less likely than an older person who says they are 7/10 likely to vote. So the second way you can do it is by demographics - i.e., millennials normally vote at this rate, old people at this rate. But the trouble is that this leaves you massively susceptible to 'revolutionary' candidates, who can mobilize people in previously unforeseen ways.

The second part of this second problem is dishonesty about who you vote for. For example, you might want to vote for the racist candidate, but not want to admit it. So you'll say you're undecided, or you're voting for the other candidate, even though you're not. There's... really no way to do much about this for a pollster.

The third problem is undecideds themselves. If I poll 4 Red people and 3 Blue people and 2 undecideds, everyone thinks the pollsters are saying Red will win. But if all the undecideds swing behind Blue, they'll win 5-4 - and it looks like I was wrong. And because they're undecided, you can't really make any safe assumptions about them.

And finally the fourth problem is 'shock' events - last minute things that make people change their minds in between polls and polling day.

The trouble with this US election is that almost all of these happened at once! And there's really very little you can do about them. The more similar candidates are to previous elections, the better polling works. Obama vs. Romney and Obama vs. McCain? Easy to poll; Obama is obviously the same guy, McCain and Romney similar enough the same assumptions both work. But Trump vs. Clinton? Hard as heck to poll. And despite that, pollsters didn't do too bad. The standard error was about 2.3 percentage points on the national level. That's pretty close! The trouble is that was also the difference between President Trump and President Clinton.


Thank for taking the time to right all of this out. Most people have far too little knowledge about what polls actually mean, which leads to a bunch of extrapolations from polling. For example, the Dem Primary miss in Michigan. They hadn't had a real primary in 16 years, so the demographic assumptions were complete a complete mess.
 

IJoel

Member
Thanks OP!

I expected the dirtiness used by the Republican Party against Hillary. But I really resented Bernie's constant baseless insinuations against Hillary. I honestly think he had an impact on this election, though I'm not saying it would've changed the outcome.

In any case, I felt terrible for Hillary. She's dedicated her life to public service and certainly deserved better . Of course, and so did we.
 

Sinfamy

Member
Just so everyone know why Javits Center was chosen:
V3GlyIX.jpg
 
With all that's said and done the ones that should hold the most blame are the American people for voting, or not voting, the way they did. Nobody forced them.

The world's not going to think so much about how Clinton or Trump campaigned in details, all they'll remember is "this is the country that voted for Trump" or "as expected of the country that voted for Bush twice".
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
Out of all the many factors that effected the outcome of the election (and there are plenty to account for), the choice of Tim Kaine as VP couldn't be less relevant. Beyond carrying Virginia, I can't picture it as having had any real effect on anything.

Kaine was a boring Wall Street approved pick. He added no excitement to the ticket.

Granted, VPs don't generally matter much so perhaps symptomatic rather than actually affecting much
 

Boney

Banned
Thanks OP!

I expected the dirtiness used by the Republican Party against Hillary. But I really resented Bernie's constant baseless insinuations against Hillary. I honestly think he had an impact on this election, though I'm not saying it would've changed the outcome.

In any case, I felt terrible for Hillary. She's dedicated her life to public service and certainly deserved better . Of course, and so did we.
*airhorn*
 

Brinbe

Member
Genuinely good read, thanks for the post. We all had this believe in the American people that turned out to be unfounded. It's an upsetting moment of realization that this is who we are as humans. And it's scary as well as very sad. I have no doubt that they did all they could and saw this coming.
 
Really cool perspective, thanks for sharing.

I have come to admire Hillary a lot, so all the accusations of her being arrogant/entitled flying around in the wake of the election are bumming me out.
 
Assuming the OP is telling the truth, that's an unsurprising but good reflection of what happened.

It's hard to say which one thing doomed a candidate in an election decided by 107,000 votes (WI/MI/PA). Ultimately, it was many things that were her fault and many things that weren't.

I actually never expected Trump's plan of demoralizing turnout on the left to work, but I guess I had too much faith in the electorate.
 
Yeah, the unfortunate response to many people pointing out these problems was vitriol ranging from outright personal attacks that lead to being dog piled on or a complete dismissing of it by people who refused to stop drinking the yaas queen kool-aid. People so wrapped up in their own personal politics that they couldn't slow their role long enough to acknowledge and attempt to address the issues that were literally all around them.

I'm terrified that these same people who refuse to acknowledge these things to this day are going to further damage our chances at turning things around and beating back the conservative political tide in the coming years.

Have you ever considered that the vitriol came from the fact that your side said Hillary was a corrupt Wall Street bought sleazebag? That she was attacking Bernie rather dirty, even though she never brought up the Sandinista rallies, or Sierra Blanca? That stuff pays forward.

I'm terrified that your side is going to piss off minorities by taking them for granted to go chase after WWC.

That's all the Far Left harps on. Your rhetoric is just as dangerous.

Instead of uniting, continue the primary fight.
 

Gallbaro

Banned
OP is it true:

  • There was a fake glass ceiling set up, that they were going to "shatter" when they won
  • They told everyone they had to go home because they only rented the place out until 2am, because they didn't even consider the possibility it wouldn't be over before that
  • They didn't actually tell people in the room that was the real reason?
This needs to be answered!
 

Hexa

Member
OP is it true:

  • There was a fake glass ceiling set up, that they were going to "shatter" when they won
  • They told everyone they had to go home because they only rented the place out until 2am, because they didn't even consider the possibility it wouldn't be over before that
  • They didn't actually tell people in the room that was the real reason?

I highly doubt rentals is the reason. I mean, its the fucking presidential election and 2AM. Even if they did have it rented to only 2AM, I doubt that the rentees would care enough for it to be an issue.
 

Gallbaro

Banned
I highly doubt rentals is the reason. I mean, its the fucking presidential election and 2AM. Even if they did have it rented to only 2AM, I doubt that the rentees would care enough for it to be an issue.
Javits requires a large amount of union workers to operate and required downtime for move out/in. Could have been there spacer had other commitments.
 

Malleymal

You now belong to FMT.
A person that I know worked for her campaign and recording everything. His name is Kurt and I can't wait to talk to him about the whole experience.
 

boiled goose

good with gravy
I dunno man, Trump said so much shit that would have sunk other candidates and yet it barely had any impact.

It did have an impact. Trump won with less votes than Romney in 2016. He did not really "gain" votes. Hillary just lost votes that generally go to Democrats. (She also got less votes than Romney, but more than Trump).

This was not a crazy Trump surge. This was too extremely unpopular candidates fighting a mud slinging battle and Hillary lost despite having more advantages.

Have you ever considered that the vitriol came from the fact that your side said Hillary was a corrupt Wall Street bought sleazebag? That she was attacking Bernie rather dirty, even though she never brought up the Sandinista rallies, or Sierra Blanca? That stuff pays forward.

I'm terrified that your side is going to piss off minorities by taking them for granted to go chase after WWC.

That's all the Far Left harps on. Your rhetoric is just as dangerous.

Instead of uniting, continue the primary fight.

It is almost as if the "far left" cares about actual policies and issues rather than just party affiliation? Disgusting still too many here I know... Luckily, now these people can't be attacked for being too "ideologically pure" or "impractical" because well, the alternative strategy was a complete failure... It is funny how people still don't realize that having an actual message and ideals and vision is not naive, it is practical because it helps you win.

You know what is actually dangerous? Not being able to say that it is not OK for politicians to take donations from corporations and become personally filthy rich by getting paid directly by these same corporations because it makes a particular candidate look bad. THAT'S what is dangerous.
 
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