Eteric Rice
Member
Neomoto said:
I agree. It's the same thing in the Gamespot forums. Right now they expect Halo 3 and GTA4 to even these numbers out.
I get the feeling that's not going to happen.
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IDC analyst: Wii supply won't meet demand until 2009
- Thread starter Alcibiades
- Start date
I agree. It's the same thing in the Gamespot forums. Right now they expect Halo 3 and GTA4 to even these numbers out.
I get the feeling that's not going to happen.
titiklabingapat
Member
It's not even half a year yet. We're still in the 4 3/4 month time frame, even less in Europe and Japan.ghostlyjoe said:
That's called perceived value...Neomoto said:
Games can change this value, but almost every game on the Wii can have a perceived value higher for casual (even hardcore) than on other consoles..
Godfather is a good example.. Harry Potter and Spiderman have great potential...
And i really want to see what will happen when Metroid hits, if it plays great as Nintendo says, it may turn to be the FPS for casuals.. (i usually don't like FPS but if it plays great with Wiimote i may give it a try...)
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Source? I've not seen them put a number on the increase.Miniboss1232 said:
Nice.PkunkFury said:
4 3/4 seems like what one would get starting from Japanese launch. US ~5 1/4, Europe 4 1/2.titiklabingapat said:
QuickKick89
Banned
AniHawk said:
Think you got it the other way around there boss.
Nintendo is a bunch of jerks if this is true. 2009?!?!?! You can't setup another factory? You can't pay someone else to help with manufacturing? It is hard not to think that they are constraining the supply on purpose, and it is really crappy to people who want to buy the system.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Holy cow, look at all those. And all we had to do this whole time was push "A".PkunkFury said:
That part wasn't about Wii's high profile software, but those from the competition. Halo 3 or FF XIII or GTA IV pulling in big numbers won't matter for Wii. And if you are looking purely at the hardcore gamer than Nintendo alone is more than capable of countering if not surpassing those titles qua relevence with their own killer apps.felipeko said:
Wyndstryker
Member
Uncooked said:
They are looking for more people to help with manufacturing.
But things like that don't appear out of thin air...unless you're living in the intarwebs.
Miniboss1232
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Actually, you're right. It seems the only thing I can find on it is an analyst saying that Nintendo will increase production. And you know what they say about analysts.
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/apr2007/gb20070405_879933_page_2.htm
Business Week said:
MiamiWesker
Member
Link said:
How about this, I pop in tomorrow see how many are left. It will be like a gaf experiment.
jaundicejuice
Member
I remember when the DS was first announced; I laughed at the name, the dual screens, the old tech (in compairson to the PSP), and the bizarre non-games that would eventually come to dominate the system--probably just like every denizen of every message board on the internet. Braintraining? Nintendogs? Electroplankton? Wtf is this shit? Who is this supposed to appeal to? To paraphrase EGM ~ "The PSP winning is the most obvious thing ever"
But the silly handheld with its silly non-games have sold millions. I bought a DS as well as a PSP, and I honestly only expected my DS to be a very game specific handheld. I couldn't have been more wrong. Sure I don't dig the non-game stuff but because of the people buying DS's for those non-games I'm getting boat loads of actual games that I do like.
I remember when the Wii was first unvieled with it's silly name and silly controller, and then it's technical abilities were displayed. Compared to the titanic capabilities of the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360, a Wario64-esque "wow" didn't even begin to cover it. Again I expected to buy a piece of Nintendo hardware as a game specific machine and have to own a 360 and/or a PS3 as my main machine(s). My Wii is a very game specific machine at the moment but looking at the way things are going that's probably going to change in the next year and a bit.
I love reading through threads like this because of the responses they contain. Go ahead and list whatever software you want; your opinion on the Wii's software line up, my opinion, anyone else here--they don't matter.
The plain and simple fact is the Wii has sold well over half a million consoles in a third of a year. Last I checked Nintendo had sold 6 million consoles in 4 months. That's 4 million ahead of Sony in the same time frame, 4 million shy of Microsoft who have had a year and some change to build up that 10 million install base. What's crazy is that there's seemingly no stopping the demand for the Nintendo Wii. This thing is going to be the next market leader at this pace.
With what has Nintendo sold so many consoles? Not Metroid, not Mario, not Zelda, not Smash Bros. No, Wii Sports and Wii Play, those games (by most gamers definition--mine included) are shit. But the sales of Wii Play alone in Japan are equal to EVERY game sold on the PS3 there, that's f*cking crazy. It's just one Wii game. If the opinion of the market was reflected by the likes of forum dwellers the Wii would've been a horrid, greasy failure, but that's simply not the case.
I like advancing technology, I own an Xbox 360 because of this and would own a Playstation 3 if it didn't cost 700+$CND after taxes, but at the same time I'm not exactly horrified at where gaming could be taken with the Wii. And the "real" games will show up, the Wii's becoming a force in the market that can't simply be ignored. The demand for the Wii simply caught gamers, Nintendo and developers off guard.
If anything the forums will continue to be interesting with posters sputtering the same refrains ad-nauseum: "Non-games!", "5 year old tech!", "It's a fad!", "It's only because the Wii is cheaper, wait for the price drops of the Xbox 360 and/or PS3!" or "Just wait until [insert title here] is released for the [insert Xbox 360 or Playstation 3 here]" that just seem more ridiculous with each passing month.
It's nice to see that drinky's got the rough framework for an ideology to help him cope with this upcoming generation (saw this in another thread).
But the silly handheld with its silly non-games have sold millions. I bought a DS as well as a PSP, and I honestly only expected my DS to be a very game specific handheld. I couldn't have been more wrong. Sure I don't dig the non-game stuff but because of the people buying DS's for those non-games I'm getting boat loads of actual games that I do like.
I remember when the Wii was first unvieled with it's silly name and silly controller, and then it's technical abilities were displayed. Compared to the titanic capabilities of the Playstation 3 and Xbox 360, a Wario64-esque "wow" didn't even begin to cover it. Again I expected to buy a piece of Nintendo hardware as a game specific machine and have to own a 360 and/or a PS3 as my main machine(s). My Wii is a very game specific machine at the moment but looking at the way things are going that's probably going to change in the next year and a bit.
I love reading through threads like this because of the responses they contain. Go ahead and list whatever software you want; your opinion on the Wii's software line up, my opinion, anyone else here--they don't matter.
The plain and simple fact is the Wii has sold well over half a million consoles in a third of a year. Last I checked Nintendo had sold 6 million consoles in 4 months. That's 4 million ahead of Sony in the same time frame, 4 million shy of Microsoft who have had a year and some change to build up that 10 million install base. What's crazy is that there's seemingly no stopping the demand for the Nintendo Wii. This thing is going to be the next market leader at this pace.
With what has Nintendo sold so many consoles? Not Metroid, not Mario, not Zelda, not Smash Bros. No, Wii Sports and Wii Play, those games (by most gamers definition--mine included) are shit. But the sales of Wii Play alone in Japan are equal to EVERY game sold on the PS3 there, that's f*cking crazy. It's just one Wii game. If the opinion of the market was reflected by the likes of forum dwellers the Wii would've been a horrid, greasy failure, but that's simply not the case.
I like advancing technology, I own an Xbox 360 because of this and would own a Playstation 3 if it didn't cost 700+$CND after taxes, but at the same time I'm not exactly horrified at where gaming could be taken with the Wii. And the "real" games will show up, the Wii's becoming a force in the market that can't simply be ignored. The demand for the Wii simply caught gamers, Nintendo and developers off guard.
If anything the forums will continue to be interesting with posters sputtering the same refrains ad-nauseum: "Non-games!", "5 year old tech!", "It's a fad!", "It's only because the Wii is cheaper, wait for the price drops of the Xbox 360 and/or PS3!" or "Just wait until [insert title here] is released for the [insert Xbox 360 or Playstation 3 here]" that just seem more ridiculous with each passing month.
It's nice to see that drinky's got the rough framework for an ideology to help him cope with this upcoming generation (saw this in another thread).
beebs_basic
Member
With the demand such as it is, and the casual gamers that (for now) are content with Wii Sports, it's a good thing that Nintendo is making a profit on the hardware, otherwise this could be the biggest money-sink in history. Aside from that, with the sheer number of units going out the door, N can more than afford to invest in more manufacturing to make more consoles. I say they have till about Christmas (which luckily enough seems to be when the next round of software will hit) to get games on shelves.
As far as 3rd party software goes, when it gets to the point that there are 20 million or so Wii's out there, if you can't get a 500,000 seller you can stop looking at Nintendo when you're looking to place blame. I don't think many devs blamed Sony for a game not selling well on PS2 ever. At some point, you just have to stop with the shovelware and make a better game.
As far as 3rd party software goes, when it gets to the point that there are 20 million or so Wii's out there, if you can't get a 500,000 seller you can stop looking at Nintendo when you're looking to place blame. I don't think many devs blamed Sony for a game not selling well on PS2 ever. At some point, you just have to stop with the shovelware and make a better game.
Eteric Rice
Member
jaundicejuice said:
I...
I...
Er...
*golf clap*
DeaconKnowledge
Member
jaundicejuice said:
This post should be bookmarked.
Eteric Rice
Member
Uncooked said:
Check stores on Sundays, that's usually when you'll see them.
First, fix your avatar -- it's too tall.jaundicejuice said:
You're right -- GAF does not represent the demographics of the gaming community at large, and there will almost certainly be a gap between what is liked here and what is popular in terms of overall sales. Of course, that observation isn't rocket science -- ANY small group is not likely to reflect the opinions of the larger group. Compare the general slant of the Off-Topic Forum with respect to music, movies, politics...not exactly mainstream, when you look at the numbers.
However, I have to object to the way you phrased your post, because it implies that none of the other factors have any effect whatsoever. Yes, Wii has a novel controller and simpler games...AND it costs half as much as the other systems. How in the world do you propose to separate out those two factors in terms of its current success?
Well not per se. Who knows what will happen when games like Wii Music/Health/Sports 2 etc or SMG/SSBB/MP3 etc or Guitar Hero/Harry Potter/Dance Dance Revolution/MySims etc hit. Iirc most systems tend to sell more systems than they did the year before (through different reasons). So it could very well happen that even with multiple production upgrades (just like with DS) the demand will still be greater than supply because of contiuned momentum, great games that cater to different audiences, etc. I don't know if it'll be all the way through 2009 though, that seems a bit of a stretch but if DS is anything to go by nothing is certain.Uncooked said:
Miniboss1232
Member
Uncooked said:
So if they're manufacturing what they're manufacturing right now (which I am assuming is 1.5 million), and they never increase that number EVER until 2009, Nintendo will have produced over 36 million consoles in two years and two months.
How is that a lack of effort again?
edit:
To clarify, if Nintendo ships the exact amount that they're shipping now for the same amount of time that the PS2 has been available currently, they'll have shipped over 110 million consoles.
That number sounds familiar, doesn't it?
-jinx- said:
Actually it's not that hard, at least at the first level:
If people were buying Wii BECAUSE it was cheap there would be no lines on Sunday mornings - increase in personal cost of buying, there would be no Ebay premium - if you buy Wii because it's 250, you are not paying 340 on Ebay by definition.
Now you can make the argument that Wii is winning because it is cheap and now people are buying it because it is winning. While this is true, there have never been a cheap Wii yet ever. Wii costs 250+tax+considerable personal cost waiting for one/Ebay premium.
If you don't like this approach, here is another: every single person who owns a Wii has forgone an Ebay premium.
Honestly, I find the idea that in US Wii is ACTUALLY 250 just not holding water. THe real cost of Wii has been arounf that of Xbox premium for most of the time since launch and is only now coming down.
jaundicejuice said:
Just so you know thats a 9 million install base - 5.3 million here, 200 thousand in canada, 200k in australia, 2.6m in europe and 400k in japan, thats 8.7m, ill throw in another 300k for everywhere else that isnt specifically tracked to be generous and give you 9m sold through. 10 million is a lie, 10.4 by end december 2006 was even more of a lie and any xbox fanboy who actually believes it is beyond anyones help. Wii is less than 3m, closer to 2.5 behind
Jamesfrom818
Banned
jaundicejuice said:
I was expecting the Fresh Prince of Bel Air lyrics.
Good post nonetheless.
jaundicejuice
Member
-jinx- said:
Better? This is the avatar I originally used when I first started posting on the GAf, and no one took issue with it then.
-jinx- said:
Err...I am not certain of where you'd get the idea I was attempting to say the input device, simplistic games and/or price weren't tied to its success. I did try and cover all the bases with all the typical (and sometimes trollish) excuses I see here and on other forums as to why it's a meteoric success.
I know that the price and Zelda are the only reasons I got one at launch. I know that I wasn't too keen on the new input device, and I have yet to be entirely sold on it. Nor am I too impressed with the mini-game compilations, non-games and slap-dash ports. In general the Wii's library (as of now) has been largely panned, rightly so might I add, but that hasn't stopped the bloody steam roller that this system is turning out to be. Why I don't know, and going by the reactions of the majority of posters here and elsewhere, none one else does either. But it just doesn't stop the system from moving.
The point I was trying to make, in a very long round-about-rambling sort of way is that I'm just not surprised anymore, it's the weird f*cking rollercoaster, a twilight zone episode of how I expected this generation to play out. I am not surpised anymore but I am amused with people who still are.
PkunkFury said:I don't understand why people keep talking about shortages like they aren't manufactured... It's clear Gahiggidy has been buying up all the Wiis and hiding them in his basement to increase demand
Put two gamecubes taped together into that picture and you might have something special there.
Miniboss1232
Member
Uncooked said:
Okay. I'm not sure how "easy" it is for a company to expand production, and I have an idea that you don't either. But ignoring that, how do we know that they aren't going to expand production in the next two years? What if they expand production to 2 million units a month? 3 million? 4 million? What if with all of that "expanded production" they still can't meet demand?
Basically, what I'm saying is, how is this Nintendo's fault? Is it only their fault because they don't have PRECISELY the amount of Wiis on store shelves that there need to be? And how would they have known that beforehand? If there is still demand, even after they've expanded production to multi-million units, is it still Nintendo's fault?
I think you're confusing supply and demand. Supply is not the issue. The overwhelming demand is. There's a distinct difference. Supply is what Nintendo can control. Demand is not.
edit:
Also, this whole discussion is based on what an analyst predicted. Meaning, it's not fact. An analyst is basically a glorified GAFfer with a paycheck.
ghostlyjoe
Member
Some people on this board have been touting Wii Health as the next big thing, and I'm about to join their ranks. This game could go off like an atom bomb, and if it does, it will drive Wii demand to even greater heights, making this analyst look like a genius.
Granted, this is just my own ruminations, but consider Brain Training and its design. In this case, non-game is complete misnomer, as BT actually takes concepts from game design (goal-oriented, immediate rewards, improvement over time) and puts them in a different direction. The enjoyment comes from the puzzles, the longevity comes the positioning of the game as a lifestyle program (that is, you play it for a short time everyday with the ntoion of improved mental performance over time -- the game then tracks that performance and gives you a simple, readable score (the reward, if you will)). It's not that much different than a traditional action game in that sense -- it's just that, instead of getting a character upgrade for more stylishly dispatching enemy ninjas, you get a brain score upgrade for more quickly solving a series equations). It's applying game design philosophies to areas outside the realm of traditional gaming.
Now, the weakness of Brain Training is that it doesn't translate well to real life. It won't make you better at your job or turn you into an astrophysicist. But imagine if it did -- if it had tangible real-world results.
Now, translate that to Wii Health. We have anecdotal evidence of trainers endorsing the Wii and some reports of Nintendo working with hospitals to transfer health information. If Wii health works (or even gives a sustained impression of working) as a low-impact fitness program and mixes that with the rewarding challenge of good gameplay, then it could very well become a phenomenon of unprecedented proportion. It's a simple concept really: Make working out fun and immediately rewarding (as opposed to the current long-term benefits, short-term hassles of most fitness routines).
I'll tell you this much: GTA4 can't compete -- not with something like that -- not with something designed to be a lifestyle device, that encourages repeated use, that shows tangible benefits and that appeals to ALL demographics. Your doctor is never going to prescribe MGS4 or Bioshock, but if Nintendo can get your family physician to recommend Wii Health -- oh shit!
If this somehow comes true -- and, at this point, it's a stretch -- then the Wii will be supply constrained for the foreseeable future -- hell, it'll be on backorder at rehab facilities all over the world.
It's a rosy scenario, but, man, wouldn't it be something to see
Granted, this is just my own ruminations, but consider Brain Training and its design. In this case, non-game is complete misnomer, as BT actually takes concepts from game design (goal-oriented, immediate rewards, improvement over time) and puts them in a different direction. The enjoyment comes from the puzzles, the longevity comes the positioning of the game as a lifestyle program (that is, you play it for a short time everyday with the ntoion of improved mental performance over time -- the game then tracks that performance and gives you a simple, readable score (the reward, if you will)). It's not that much different than a traditional action game in that sense -- it's just that, instead of getting a character upgrade for more stylishly dispatching enemy ninjas, you get a brain score upgrade for more quickly solving a series equations). It's applying game design philosophies to areas outside the realm of traditional gaming.
Now, the weakness of Brain Training is that it doesn't translate well to real life. It won't make you better at your job or turn you into an astrophysicist. But imagine if it did -- if it had tangible real-world results.
Now, translate that to Wii Health. We have anecdotal evidence of trainers endorsing the Wii and some reports of Nintendo working with hospitals to transfer health information. If Wii health works (or even gives a sustained impression of working) as a low-impact fitness program and mixes that with the rewarding challenge of good gameplay, then it could very well become a phenomenon of unprecedented proportion. It's a simple concept really: Make working out fun and immediately rewarding (as opposed to the current long-term benefits, short-term hassles of most fitness routines).
I'll tell you this much: GTA4 can't compete -- not with something like that -- not with something designed to be a lifestyle device, that encourages repeated use, that shows tangible benefits and that appeals to ALL demographics. Your doctor is never going to prescribe MGS4 or Bioshock, but if Nintendo can get your family physician to recommend Wii Health -- oh shit!
If this somehow comes true -- and, at this point, it's a stretch -- then the Wii will be supply constrained for the foreseeable future -- hell, it'll be on backorder at rehab facilities all over the world.
It's a rosy scenario, but, man, wouldn't it be something to see
More news from the official nintendo stock watcher of GAF (me :lol )
As of today, nintendo is now worth 52.56 Billion dollars, the stock closed up 3.50 a share to 371 dollars. (Do not confuse the stock listed on american stock tracker websites like google finance, that is the ADR, not the japanese stock for the company)
So folk, nintendo just increased its market cap by half a billion dollars in ONE DAY
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/jp/7974
As of today, nintendo is now worth 52.56 Billion dollars, the stock closed up 3.50 a share to 371 dollars. (Do not confuse the stock listed on american stock tracker websites like google finance, that is the ADR, not the japanese stock for the company)
So folk, nintendo just increased its market cap by half a billion dollars in ONE DAY
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/jp/7974
ghostlyjoe
Member
Wiitard said:
Well, Wii Health is the vanguard. If it fails, why would we see a bunch of clones?
ghostlyjoe said:
1) Because, unlike Brain Training, it is an absolutely obvious application of Wii controls and Wii sports boxing has already shown it can work in principle.
2) There are rumors of such clones being in development right now.
3) These games should be pretty cheap to develop.
jaundicejuice
Member
Taurus said:
Unintentional! :lol
I don't think he was trying to seperate the price from anything else, I think the point was that too many people ARE pinning Wii's success on one factor alone and that interest will dry up when that ONE factor is no longer an advantage. I honestly think the whole point of the post was to show a total-package of advantages the Wii has in the consumer sphere, and that the competitors taking away one here or one there isn't going to make this insane consumer interest collapse like a house of cards, as some people would say is inevitable.-jinx- said:
... at least, that's how I interpretted it.
Miniboss1232 said:
That is why I pointed out they had two years, which is plenty of time to expand production. Noticed how I used the word IF in my original post, and I am basing this on the analysis that stated they would not meet demand in 2009, not what is actually going to happen (I do not own a crystal ball, sorry) as it is pointless to speculate. Overwhelming demand is a problem, but an attempt to increase supply would help. My point was that Nintendo should increase supply (atleast make an effort) to help the consumer get it, you are saying that since there is so much demand Nintendo should just sit back and say "oh well, not our fault so many people want it." Like you said, they can control supply, so trying to supply more in the next two years would be a good way to show consumers they care.
Thanks for talking down to me and telling me I know nothing about manufacturing and supply and demand as well ass.
I think wii health will be like guitar hero or singstar...
It will come with extra stuff.... Some kind of specially designed peripherials. Maybe something that straps to your legs with motion sensing built in or a pulse monitor or both.
Just a guess. In a recent interview, one of the european nintendo guys referred to it as the wii health pack ... that makes me think it will be peripherial driven. Also, it just makes sense.
edit// also i don't think the wii will be supply constrained for that long. I would be surprised.
It will come with extra stuff.... Some kind of specially designed peripherials. Maybe something that straps to your legs with motion sensing built in or a pulse monitor or both.
Just a guess. In a recent interview, one of the european nintendo guys referred to it as the wii health pack ... that makes me think it will be peripherial driven. Also, it just makes sense.
edit// also i don't think the wii will be supply constrained for that long. I would be surprised.
Miniboss1232
Member
Uncooked said:
Hmmm...
Uncooked said:
I think I'm done.
By the way, I wasn't saying Nintendo should just slack up and not produce more units. I was saying that they may not be able to meet demand no matter how many units they can possibly produce. Your ORIGINAL POST (posted above) made it sound like you thought Nintendo was creating the demand on purpose. I was simply pointing out that you had no ground to back that up on.