-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
IDC analyst: Wii supply won't meet demand until 2009
- Thread starter Alcibiades
- Start date
Ynos Yrros
Banned
Seeing how they sold less in March than in February, and less in February than in January, it seems that either Nintendo is shipping less units every month, or the demand is met in NA, or most of the supply goes to GC Hut.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
Sir, I am pretty sure Nintendo wouldn't stop themselves from selling units, given the profits to be made.Ynos Yrros said:
I bet you what is happening is they are moving units to another geographic location, you know, one that has some system pushing games coming out very soon and whose supply is also constrained? They have also seemingly purchased this geographic location, at least in NeoGAF's eyes.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Ynos Yrros said:
Wow, you still don't see how this works, huh?
Thunderbear said:
There are two things that sell systems, hype and software. Get enough hype to sell enough systems and developers will bring there best games to that system. Those games help sell more systems which creates more hype, which brings better games and so on, its a snowball effect. Its what made PS1 succeed, and exactly the same thing happened with PS2. Right now Wii has 7 million users, at its current rate of sales it will be at 18-19 million by November of this year (god knows what it'll sell at Christmas). Dwarfing any other current system on the market. Do you really think developers will ignore these sales and not bring great games to the system? Don't delude yourself here, Wii has already passed the point of no return, its not going to just stop selling now, the snowball started rolling months ago and its only going to get bigger and bigger. As for your last comment, sorry but its nothing but short sighted ignorance.
Sweedishrodeo
the smegma spreader
the word of mouth thing is HOT right now. big time. my sexy next door neighbors love Wii bowling, and i love to play it with them! w00t!
you wont be taken seriously saying stuff like that, junior.
Superman00 said:
you wont be taken seriously saying stuff like that, junior.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Sweedishrodeo said:
Well, as far as North America goes, there's a parallel between the DSLite's release and the DS's success. However, this success also parallels NSBM, Brain Age, and Sony's seemingly white-flagging of the PSP. So, it's hard to say that the DSLite was the only catalyst, but it was at least a significant one.
_Alkaline_
Member
Too many non-believers in this thread. Seems they haven't seen enough MC threads.
In Germany last month, I think a discounter (Media Markt) offered the 360 Premium for 299, so only 50 more than a Wii. People still ignoring the 360 but the demand for Wii is still strong.dog$ said:
I bet, even at the same price the 360 won't sell as good as the Wii, at least in Europe.
Frankfurter
Member
Neo C. said:
Some online stores even sold X360 Premium with Kameo, PGR3 and 3 month Xbox Live Gold for 299€.
MiamiWesker
Member
I was just looking for the first wii thread I find to post this in and this is the first, it even fits with the topic, nice.
So I go into my local BB and there are a ton of Wii's, I was shocked. There are all at the customer service desk, about 20 of them. They are covering up the PS3, they put the wiis on top of and in front of them. There is no point to this really, just thought I would let you know.
So I go into my local BB and there are a ton of Wii's, I was shocked. There are all at the customer service desk, about 20 of them. They are covering up the PS3, they put the wiis on top of and in front of them. There is no point to this really, just thought I would let you know.
CreatureX3
Member
Oh man that will be an EPIC thread!Haunted One said:
Eteric Rice
Member
MiamiWesker said:
New shipment I bet.
titiklabingapat
Member
It seems like there has been a glut of MASSVE new shipments lately. Reports from people saying Target randomly had them last Monday, then this Best Buy one, Gamestop/EBgames havig 20 units per store this Sunday(they usually get less than 10). It's also up to 22% on Itrackr, and I believe this is the first time the Wii is over 20%, usually, stays around 15% when there's a restock. Either demand has fallen drastically or April NPD is going to be slaughter.
Eteric Rice
Member
titiklabingapat said:
I'll go with slaughter.
bananabread
Member
Reggie: Soldier, I ordered you to ship those units! We can't meet deman...
Iwata: No! Demand is good.
*Cue Dramatic music*
Iwata: On my signal...unleash Hell.
gladiator.jpg
Iwata: No! Demand is good.
*Cue Dramatic music*
Iwata: On my signal...unleash Hell.
gladiator.jpg
D.Lo
Member
And how did gamesonyindustry.biz relay this analyst's report? With the headline
'Wii shortages could damage consumer interest Pidgeon'
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=24536
It's hard to comprehend how an editor managed to spin this report as a bad thing for the Wii. While most of this thread has been about claiming the analyst was wrong (which is fair enough in some ways), at least no one here tried to claim the original report spelled doom for Nintendo. Can that site be any more obvious in their editorial bias? They reported Sony's ridiculous NPD spin as straight news too...
'Wii shortages could damage consumer interest Pidgeon'
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=24536
It's hard to comprehend how an editor managed to spin this report as a bad thing for the Wii. While most of this thread has been about claiming the analyst was wrong (which is fair enough in some ways), at least no one here tried to claim the original report spelled doom for Nintendo. Can that site be any more obvious in their editorial bias? They reported Sony's ridiculous NPD spin as straight news too...
JoshuaJSlone
Member
It depends where is being talked about. Nintendogs (and stuff like Brain Age) clearly put DS ahead of PSP weekly in Japan (and maybe Europe if we had decent numbers), but in the US what it did was bring the DS out of its slump to being approximately equal with the PSP each month. It wasn't until June of the next year when it really broke away from PSP, and people still argue about how much credit to give to the Lite and how much to give to games like New Super Mario Bros.Ikael said:
Nintendogs releasing in the US didn't do anything of note. The major, major turn in sales (aka when the DS finally started completely outstripping the PSP in monthly sales) was when the DSL and NSMB were released. Brain Age and Nintendogs sold well but did not correspond with an unusual change in hardware sales. Hell, Nintendo was bundling a price-dropped DS with Nintendogs and there was no major shift in trends.Ikael said:
Eteric Rice said:
No system has ever done this *let alone* launching (within weeks) WORLDWIDE! Plus the NDS is also very popular, it's actually amazing Nintendo can pump out *and sell* so many systems (GBA, NDS & Wii)...this is not a fluke...they literally hit the ground running in strides beyond that "new console smell". ANOTHER thing to take into account was PS2 (or X360 even) didn't even do this and it had a year headstart on the market with no competition!
You can (illogically) argue 5 year old tech (gee wiz, didn't know GCN had wireless freehand motion controllers, built-in USB, SD, BT, WiFi, Virtual Console & flash memory) 'til you're blue in the face...fact is Wii is kicking ass like no other before it. You could even say "bla bla it's half the price of PS3, that's why" but you'd be blind 'cos GCN was also cheap compared to it's competition and never took off like this. X360 had a year headstart, but by the end of this year you wouldn't know it 'cos Wii will have closed the gap on that headstart...also something that's never been done. The mighty X-BOX nor the hopeful GCN never caught up to PS2, not even combined. Plus the Wii launched literally *next* to PS3 who most thought would continue Sony's market leading status...it is obvious the Wii is not some sales fluke!
Nintendo is exceeding everyone's expectations, even their own and they're outputting more hardware than any of their competitor's or anyone in this industry ever before...yet some of you are still calling fluke?
PiccoloCube said:
TBH its the truth. How could they not be able to ship a product thats not hard to manufacture nor does it have super expensive, rare pieces.
It all comes down to how they outsource their manufacturing or they're blalantly doing for press time. If the first one, then its all their fault since they havent acted as quickly as they should fully knowing the crazy demand of the Wii, if the second, marketing of that kind will only work so long until people move on to the "next thing".
I really think its the first one. The "hot but hard to find" strategy has been going on for too long, even for Nintendo.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
I had someone call me from VT yesterday to use my access to the Nintendo store to grab a Wii for them and ship it to them. Supply is still significantly constrained.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1942609&postcount=1340:909er said:
909er said:
They also ran an idiotic story about PS3 catching up to Wii in Japan by comparing LTD sales with older weekly sales and seeing that the former had a smaller Wii to PS3 ratio than the latter. (Nevermind that the current weekly sales had an even higher Wii to PS3 ratio.)D.Lo said:
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
"IDC analyst: Wii supply won't meet demand until 2009"
Guess I better wake up early this Sunday.....sigh...
Guess I better wake up early this Sunday.....sigh...
inthezone said:
Woah Waoh Woah...in the same time period they're producing, shipping AND SELLING more than the competition in the console area (let alone the portable area) and that's a bad thing???
They even admit (and wisely so) that they didn't know how popular it would be so gauging demand like that was hard. They said they'd make/ship/sell 6M and they made good on that promise and could've exceeded that even. How is that a bad thing?
I think I see the dirrection some of you are going with this...that Nintendo should made/shipped/sold 7M or 8M or even 10M Wii's in the same period? Ya know what, even without ramped production and continued demand 'til just the end of this year they'd meet and go beyond those numbers...now that they're ramping it'll be even better, but it's not like they (or most of us) could have predicted they would've done so well. Underestimating and ramping up later is better than overestimating and downsizing later *cough*Sony*cough*!
Miniboss1232
Member
DrGAKMAN said:
Of course it's a fluke. Nintendo's only selling non-games on non-consoles to non-gamers. Clearly, those sales don't count.
They're non-sales, really.
edit:
inthezone said:
Yeah, 6 million worldwide was their initial target from E3 of LAST YEAR. In fact, I believe they were closer to 6.5 million. In any case, they've already announced that they're increasing production to 1.5 million units per month, up from 1 million. So by August, there should be about 4.5 million more units in the world.
That's right. 4.5 million more units in just three or four months. Meaning that they'll have passed (or be very close to passing) the 360 worldwide. Cue 300 'madness' quotes.
Miniboss1232
Member
felipeko said:
Well, that isn't "five year old tech". Oh wait, they actually had to reduce their production and shipments? Oh, well, let's just conveniently ignore that.
Mind you, I want the 360 to do extremely well because I think Microsoft has actually been doing a really excellent job this gen (plus, their software sales are insane). But seriously, this convenient forgetting or ignoring of facts based off of console preferences is getting a little silly.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Yeah, MS has really been hitting on all cylinders, other than hiring this guy as head of the production line.Miniboss1232 said:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
How many months are left in the year? Take that number, multiply by about 1.2 million to be on the safe side, and voila - you lost the best.brocke said:
Btw, most people here are misinterpreting the analyst..
Suply not meeting demand don't really mean this chaos we have atm, with consoles being sold out before the stores open.. Mean that stores will sell all the consoles before next shipment arrives, or let's say: you will see Wii on the stores for more than a day, but they will get sould out eventually..
It's not hard to see that kind of scenario with Wii's mass appeal... People will just look it there and will buy..
Suply not meeting demand don't really mean this chaos we have atm, with consoles being sold out before the stores open.. Mean that stores will sell all the consoles before next shipment arrives, or let's say: you will see Wii on the stores for more than a day, but they will get sould out eventually..
It's not hard to see that kind of scenario with Wii's mass appeal... People will just look it there and will buy..
ghostlyjoe
Member
I don't know about this analyst's prediction, but it is pretty remarkable what the Wii has done in just half a year on the market. No one was expecting this. Analysts were predicting the opposite. Hardcore gamers were giggling at Nintendo and their silly little underpowered console with the silly name. Even die-hard Nintendo fans were optimistic, but reserved in their predictions. Such a huge turnaround in the home console market seemed not just improbable, but impossible.
That alone is enough to debunk some of the arguments in this thread.
1) Undershipping: If GAF had been in charge of shipping, we would have planned for half as many and doubted whether they would all sell. The idea that Nintendo is holding back is revisionist history, as even the most optimistic prognosticator would have doubted a 6-million sell-through this time a year ago.
2) Price is the difference: Only a fool would argue price doesn't matter. Clearly, the pricing of the 360 and PS3 haves had a big impact on the market. But a few weeks ago my dad, who used to play RBI baseball and nothing else on my NES and hasn't asked about or cared about gaming since, said out of the blue that he wants a Wii. Then, this weekend, he said it again. He didn't say he wants a video game system, and the Wii is cheapest, so he'll settle for that. No, he said he wants a Wii (He owns an HDTV, by the way). That's anecdotal evidence, I realize, but sales figures are as hard as evidence gets, and sales figures and anecdotal evidence combined say that people want the Wii, and if the XBox 360 sold for $99, people would still want a Wii. Again, a year ago, no one thought the price would matter. Everyone thought the 360 and PS3 would outsell the Wii handily regardless of price differential. Anecdotes are anecdotes, but they pile up.
Meh, I'm not saying anything that someone else hasn't already said, but I find it interesting to reflect. I've got one more point to make, and I've posted this before, but I think it's illustrative. This -- http://www.spokane7.com/games/stories/?ID=5667 -- is what is selling the Wii.
That alone is enough to debunk some of the arguments in this thread.
1) Undershipping: If GAF had been in charge of shipping, we would have planned for half as many and doubted whether they would all sell. The idea that Nintendo is holding back is revisionist history, as even the most optimistic prognosticator would have doubted a 6-million sell-through this time a year ago.
2) Price is the difference: Only a fool would argue price doesn't matter. Clearly, the pricing of the 360 and PS3 haves had a big impact on the market. But a few weeks ago my dad, who used to play RBI baseball and nothing else on my NES and hasn't asked about or cared about gaming since, said out of the blue that he wants a Wii. Then, this weekend, he said it again. He didn't say he wants a video game system, and the Wii is cheapest, so he'll settle for that. No, he said he wants a Wii (He owns an HDTV, by the way). That's anecdotal evidence, I realize, but sales figures are as hard as evidence gets, and sales figures and anecdotal evidence combined say that people want the Wii, and if the XBox 360 sold for $99, people would still want a Wii. Again, a year ago, no one thought the price would matter. Everyone thought the 360 and PS3 would outsell the Wii handily regardless of price differential. Anecdotes are anecdotes, but they pile up.
Meh, I'm not saying anything that someone else hasn't already said, but I find it interesting to reflect. I've got one more point to make, and I've posted this before, but I think it's illustrative. This -- http://www.spokane7.com/games/stories/?ID=5667 -- is what is selling the Wii.
Just a little addition to what ghostlyjoe just said:
People don't go for Wii because of the price. The casuals and non-gamers CHOOSE Wii because of the controller and the unique games that the controller makes possible. That is what interests them, and that's why they are buying it generally speaking, and not the competition. That is the whole freaking point of the Wii. NO other system comes even remotely close in offering just that. So why the hell do some people keep thinking that once the price of the ps3 drops or Halo 3/FF XIII hit things will be different is beyond me. None of that will matter.
People don't go for Wii because of the price. The casuals and non-gamers CHOOSE Wii because of the controller and the unique games that the controller makes possible. That is what interests them, and that's why they are buying it generally speaking, and not the competition. That is the whole freaking point of the Wii. NO other system comes even remotely close in offering just that. So why the hell do some people keep thinking that once the price of the ps3 drops or Halo 3/FF XIII hit things will be different is beyond me. None of that will matter.
ElectricBlue187
Member
Cerrius said:
maybe next generation folks