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[Uncooked]

Hmmm...



I think I'm done.

I'll accept that as a victory then. There is no reason an attempt to expand production cannot be pulled off by 2009, to not attempt such an endeavor seems like intent to constrain the supply. I don't know how else to look at it really. People want it, and if you purposely keep the production at such a low level you are constraining the supply.

Edit after your edit: I was only implying that I think they would be purposely constraining the supply only if they made no attempt to up production by 2009.

 

[Threi]

I'll accept that as a victory then. There is no reason an attempt to expand production cannot be pulled off by 2009, to not attempt such an endeavor seems like intent to constrain the supply. I don't know how else to look at it really. People want it, and if you purposely keep the production at such a low level you are constraining the supply.

What would be an acceptable number to supply per month?

 

[Terrell]

I'll accept that as a victory then. There is no reason an attempt to expand production cannot be pulled off by 2009, to not attempt such an endeavor seems like intent to constrain the supply. I don't know how else to look at it really. People want it, and if you purposely keep the production at such a low level you are constraining the supply.

Yeah, that would only make sense if Nintendo HATED MONEY.

 

[Miniboss1232]

I'll accept that as a victory then. There is no reason an attempt to expand production cannot be pulled off by 2009, to not attempt such an endeavor seems like intent to constrain the supply. I don't know how else to look at it really. People want it, and if you purposely keep the production at such a low level you are constraining the supply.

Edit after your edit: I was only implying that I think they would be purposely constraining the supply only if they made no attempt to up production by 2009.

Okay. Well, they've already upped the production once. I imagine they'll do it again. But neither of us can know that, so oh well.

BTW, GAF moves fast.

 

[Uncooked]

What would be an acceptable number to supply per month?

If one had all the available data on sales and pre-orders they could reasonably predict how many units would be necessary I think. Obviously forecasting demand in the future is the difficult part and there seems to be varying opinions on that matter, but since most seem to be that demand will hold steady for some time it wouldn't be too difficult. They need not go crazy here either and ramp up production to 4 million units a month, I was simply mad at a possible lack of effort/lack of caring about consumers.

 

[WindyMan]

I'll accept that as a victory then. There is no reason an attempt to expand production cannot be pulled off by 2009, to not attempt such an endeavor seems like intent to constrain the supply. I don't know how else to look at it really. People want it, and if you purposely keep the production at such a low level you are constraining the supply.

What is Nintendo's top motive? To make money. And lots of it. itprintsmoney.gif, you know?

Okay, so you want Nintendo to increase production. It's surely going full speed ahead at all of its existing facilities. If 1.5mil/month is the best Nintendo can muster with its current facilities, the only way it could increase production would be to outsource or build/buy out a new factory just for itself. Both of those options cost money. A lot of money.

So here's the deal. Nintendo can either keep up at their very high, but still inadequate, production rate and keep all the profits generated to themselves, or pay off a third party manufacturer or eat facility leasing costs to churn out more systems that would, in the end, perhaps not be worth the money and trouble it took to produce them. That's opportunity cost, you see.

To think that Nintendo is in any way, shape or form deliberately withholding Wii supply at this point is madness. (No, it's SPAAAAARTAAAAAAAaaa!) Nintendo is doing whatever it can to generate the most profit given its situation, which is currently dealing with a demand that not even Nintendo expected to see. Would t it like to turn up the dial a bit? Yes. But would it do it if it meant lower profits? Nope.

That's business sense. Deal with it.

 

[Uncooked]

Yeah, that would only make sense if Nintendo HATED MONEY.

Does DeBeers hate money? Not exactly the same, but you get the idea.

To WindyMan: I never said it is bad business sense, I just said it is crappy for the consumer.

 

[Terrell]

Does DeBeers hate money? Not exactly the same, but you get the idea.

Explain the reference, I don't keep up with the diamond market to know how that has any relevance.

 

[felipeko]

Uncooked, what if Nintendo just don't want to flood the market, like they did with the Gamecube?

You know, as much as Nintendo would love to know how much they should make, there's no way to. So they will slowly rise the production until they hit the sweet spot (supply=demand), and it may only happen in 2009.

Sounds reasonable enough for you now?

 

[Usman]

Explain the reference, I don't keep up with the diamond market to know how that has any relevance.

Diamonds only have their extremely high value due to intentionally constrained supply.

 

[Slurpy]

Explain the reference, I don't keep up with the diamond market to know how that has any relevance.

Uh, basically saying that DeBeers could flood the market with diamonds if they wanted, but that their value would drop significantly if they did so. Unfortunately, this analogy is pretty screwed up and not relevant in any way as I see it. The wii being 'rare' doesnt increase their market value, and furthermore, its is not to Nintendos advantage to have low supply in the long term, as the bigger $$ (software) is dependent on high hardware sales. So yeah, pretty crappy analogy.

 

[DreamMachine]

I remember reading an article stating that, nintendo is indeed going with another factory so I would bet, that supply should meet demand.

 

[Nameless]

Supply constrained for the next several months maybe, but through 2009 **** no. So essentially if Nintendo shipped 1 million units to retail next week they would all sell out? I still think most of the people looking for the Wii are the same 15-20 mill Nintendo fans that flock to each nintendo console not 40 year old women, not your average 18 year old casual.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I was wondering when that one was going to come around again

 

[Jokeropia]

I still think most of the people looking for the Wii are the same 15-20 mill Nintendo fans that flock to each nintendo console

Maybe you should pay attention to the sales age threads better then. Seriously, that statement is so goddamn stupid I almost can't believe it.

 

[ghostlyjoe]

I still think most of the people looking for the Wii are the same 15-20 mill Nintendo fans that flock to each nintendo console not 40 year old women, not your average 18 year old casual.

So, if relative sales comparisons, current sales figures, anecdotal evidence and common sense don't convince you, what possibly could? Magic fairies? Some other denizen of your particular dream world?

How about this. Try to prove, using evidence, that the Wii is selling only to Nintendo fans.

 

[Miniboss1232]

Supply constrained for the next several months maybe, but through 2009 **** no. So essentially if Nintendo shipped 1 million units to retail next week they would all sell out? I still think most of the people looking for the Wii are the same 15-20 mill Nintendo fans that flock to each nintendo console not 40 year old women, not your average 18 year old casual.

So when they hit 20 million sometime early next year, sales are just going to stop?

 

[Nameless]

Maybe you should pay attention to the sales age threads better then.

What I've seen is sales drop nearly 100k for each month this year. So either Nintendo is for some reason shipping 100k LESS units a month or demand is going down. With Best Buy actually being able to advertise Wiis in their flyer this past there was an obvious spike in production eitherway, April's NPD will tell a alot.

 

[Jokeropia]

What I've seen is sales drop nearly 100k for each month this year. So either Nintendo is for some reason shipping 100k LESS units a month or demand is going down.

Or maybe they ship to other places than USA. Europe got larger shipments around the PS3 launch.

 

[felipeko]

What I've seen is sales drop nearly 100k for each month this year. So either Nintendo is for some reason shipping 100k LESS units a month or demand is going down. With Best Buy actually being able to advertise Wiis in their flyer this past there was an obvious spike in production eitherway, April's NPD will tell a alot.

I'm sure he is just joking.

Spoiler

And by "i'm sure" i mean "i hope", just like the way he talks about wii sales...

edit: just looked his others posts and lost my hope.

 

[Miniboss1232]

What I've seen is sales drop nearly 100k for each month this year. So either Nintendo is for some reason shipping 100k LESS units a month or demand is going down. With Best Buy actually being able to advertise Wiis in their flyer this past there was an obvious spike in production eitherway, April's NPD will tell a alot.

You're right. April NPDs will tell us a lot. Though I get the feeling you still wouldn't be convinced.

 

[Nameless]

So, if relative sales comparisons, current sales figures, anecdotal evidence and common sense don't convince you, what possibly could? Magic fairies? Some other denizen of your particular dream world?

How about this. Try to prove, using evidence, that the Wii is selling only to Nintendo fans.

Evidence like what? With a handful of stories with a bunch of retirement home residents playing wii? Of course I can't prove for certain that the MAJORITY of Wii sales are going to Nintendo fans, thats why I said "I think", which means you know, its a personal theory not something I'm trying off by fact. But by the same token can YOU prove otherwise?

IMO its just an assumption and the classic case of people buying into Nintendo's mission statement. 360 was virtually impossible to find at this stage in it's life, and i just could've easily have said that the reason its selling out is because of some sort of mass appeal it had.

 

[Nameless]

:lol :lol :lol :lol

LMFAO.. I swear to god, the Nintendo Defense force must put up a "bat signal" of some sort.. holy shit..

 

[Miniboss1232]

Evidence like what? With a handful of stories with a bunch of retirement home residents playing wii? Of course I can't prove for certain that the MAJORITY of Wii sales are going to Nintendo fans, thats why I said "I think", which means you know, its a personal theory not something I'm trying off by fact. But by the same token can YOU prove otherwise?

IMO its just an assumption and the classic case of people buying into Nintendo's mission statement. 360 was virtually impossible to find at this stage in it's life, and i just could've easily have said that the reason its selling out is because of some sort of mass appeal it had.

Yes, and the 360 was at 6.5 million consoles at this stage in its life too. You seem to forget that the 360 had much, much fewer numbers during that time span than the Wii has had. And it was actually at about this time that supply started meeting demand. Wii demand still hasn't been met yet, and it's passed the 360's numbers in the same period.

:lol :lol :lol :lol

LMFAO.. I swear to god, the Nintendo Defense force must put up a "bat signal" of some sort.. holy shit..

People who use logic = Nintendo Defense Force confirmed.

 

[felipeko]

Evidence like what? With a handful of stories with a bunch of retirement home residents playing wii? Of course I can't prove for certain that the MAJORITY of Wii sales are going to Nintendo fans, thats why I said "I think", which means you know, its a personal theory not something I'm trying off by fact. But by the same token can YOU prove otherwise?

IMO its just an assumption and the classic case of people buying into Nintendo's mission statement. 360 was virtually impossible to find at this stage in it's life, and i just could've easily have said that the reason its selling out is because of some sort of mass appeal it had.

The denial is just amazing, congrats dude.

 

[duderon]

:lol :lol :lol :lol

LMFAO.. I swear to god, the Nintendo Defense force must put up a "bat signal" of some sort.. holy shit..

This is NeoGAF dude!

If you make a retarded statement, prepare for an onslaught.

 

[Nameless]

Yes, and the 360 was at 6.5 million consoles at this stage in its life too. You seem to forget that the 360 had much, much fewer numbers during that time span than the Wii has had. And it was actually at about this time that supply started meeting demand. Wii demand still hasn't been met yet, and it's passed the 360's numbers in the same period.

Obviously Wii has sold more world-wide as Xbox wasn't a factor in Japan.

And denial.. What am I denying. You can show no more tangible evidence that the Wii is selling to the masses more so than Nintendo fans than I can the inverse of that. We are all assuming. Time will tell whos correct

 

[Jokeropia]

IMO its just an assumption and the classic case of people buying into Nintendo's mission statement. 360 was virtually impossible to find at this stage in it's life, and i just could've easily have said that the reason its selling out is because of some sort of mass appeal it had.

If you complete ignore the fact that Nintendo has shipped twice as many Wiis as MS did 360s in the corresponding time period, sure.

 

[Miniboss1232]

Obviously Wii has sold more world-wide as Xbox wasn't a factor in Japan.

Okay then. Wii has sold FAR MORE in the US than the 360 did in the same amount of time.

 

[Terrell]

Evidence like what? With a handful of stories with a bunch of retirement home residents playing wii? Of course I can't prove for certain that the MAJORITY of Wii sales are going to Nintendo fans, thats why I said "I think", which means you know, its a personal theory not something I'm trying off by fact. But by the same token can YOU prove otherwise?

Well, the fact that it's almost outsold GameCube LTD numbers in Japan in 4 months should be a pretty strong indication that it's more than diehard Nintendo fans buying the console, at least in Japan. And if Wii is only selling to Nintendo fans, it should be selling at the same approximate rate as GameCube did, as the initial sales of that console should have only been to hardcore Nintendo fans, as well. Anyone care to line up the NPD numbers for the first 4 months of Wii and GameCube sales?

 

[Nameless]

Okay then. Wii has sold FAR MORE in the US than the 360 did in the same amount of time.

Thats irrelevant to the point I was trying to make. If a console is sold out due to supply constraints LIKE the 360 was(the comparison ends there) how can you prove who is buying the consoles? The last time I checked there weren't exit polls when people buy consoles.

 

[ghostlyjoe]

Evidence like what? With a handful of stories with a bunch of retirement home residents playing wii? Of course I can't prove for certain that the MAJORITY of Wii sales are going to Nintendo fans, thats why I said "I think", which means you know, its a personal theory not something I'm trying off by fact. But by the same token can YOU prove otherwise?

IMO its just an assumption and the classic case of people buying into Nintendo's mission statement. 360 was virtually impossible to find at this stage in it's life, and i just could've easily have said that the reason its selling out is because of some sort of mass appeal it had.

Sales comparisons, current sales figures and anecdotal evidence. That's why people think it's selling beyond the core Nintendo base. Why do you think it isn't?

The Wii is gaining on the 360 fast, and is even gaining in the U.S., so the Wii is selling to a wider audience than the 360 even with supply constraints. It's likely to catch it worldwide by the end of the year. Assuming that there are many more core Nintendo fans than core XBox fans, that seems right in line with your theory.

But, as others have shown in this thread, the XBox outsold the GC worldwide, and outpaced the GC by a good distance in North America. The GC also didn't have supply constraints this late into its life, and was tracking well below the Wii in the same timeframe. The GC didn't have mainstream articles praising it, or scores of anecdotal evidence suggesting dads and grandmas were helping drive interest.

If the Wii is selling only to core Nintendo fans, then evidence suggests the ranks of core Nintendo fans have grown greatly since the Wii's launch.

 

[Threi]

Obviously Wii has sold more world-wide as Xbox wasn't a factor in Japan.

And denial.. What am I denying. You can show no more tangible evidence that the Wii is selling to the masses more so than Nintendo fans than I can the inverse of that. We are all assuming. Time will tell whos correct

Well yes...but Wii sports sells more systems than Twilight princess...i think that speaks for itself.

 

[Jokeropia]

And denial.. What am I denying. You can show no more tangible evidence that the Wii is selling to the masses more so than Nintendo fans than I can the inverse of that.

Explain why Wii is the fastest selling console of all time then.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Diamonds only have their extremely high value due to intentionally constrained supply.

How is this relevant to a market where most of the money is made on items used by the original device?

If there is still a shortage in 2009, which there won't be, then Nintendo is being stupid.

 

[Miniboss1232]

Well yes...but Wii sports sells more systems than Twilight princess...i think that speaks for itself.

Winner.

 

[Deku]

Well, the fact that it's almost outsold GameCube LTD numbers in Japan in 4 months should be a pretty strong indication that it's more than diehard Nintendo fans buying the console, at least in Japan. And if Wii is only selling to Nintendo fans, it should be selling at the same approximate rate as GameCube did, as the initial sales of that console should have only been to hardcore Nintendo fans, as well. Anyone care to line up the NPD numbers for the first 4 months of Wii and GameCube sales?

You're not going to go anywhere arguing that as you can't conclusively prove it. Heck, people are ignoring obvious facts as it is.

Whether or not Wii has reaches new people isn't that important. It's certainly doing a lot better than many expected, that's undeniable. The rest are just chatterr that will work itself out.

 

[felipeko]

Obviously Wii has sold more world-wide as Xbox wasn't a factor in Japan.

And denial.. What am I denying. You can show no more tangible evidence that the Wii is selling to the masses more so than Nintendo fans than I can the inverse of that. We are all assuming. Time will tell whos correct

Zelda did not sell 6 million.

he last time I checked there weren't exit polls when people buy consoles.

You missed it dude, the pool from famitsu showed that almost 50% didn't play videogames for at least the past 3 years.

 

[Nameless]

Well, the fact that it's almost outsold GameCube LTD numbers in Japan in 4 months should be a pretty strong indication that it's more than diehard Nintendo fans buying the console, at least in Japan. And if Wii is only selling to Nintendo fans, it should be selling at the same approximate rate as GameCube did, as the initial sales of that console should have only been to hardcore Nintendo fans, as well. Anyone care to line up the NPD numbers for the first 4 months of Wii and GameCube sales?

Again, when did I say that the Wii is selling EXCLUSIVELY to Nintendo fans. They've attracted new people just as MS has and just as I suspect Sony eventually will. But in order for a console to be supply constrained for 2-3 years it has to a profound mass market consumer product, and as well the Wii has been doing, I'm not ready to give it that title. And of course I'm only referring to the US market, as the Japanese market is a whole different bag of of cookies.

 

[Wyndstryker]

Just save the banter for the NPD threads lol.

Crows will be served eventually.

 

[Nameless]

You missed it dude, the pool from famitsu showed that almost 50% didn't play videogames for at least the past 3 years.

 

[Deku]

Wouldn't it be relevant though? I don't see this discussion being particularly limited to the US only. People invoke Territorial conditionals post facto to adjust their positions but that's a little disingenuous.

 

[PantherLotus]

Not to get too cute about it, but...isn't every sale of a Wii to a Nintendo fan?

I want somebody to make the case that any one person that buys a Wii isn't essentially a Nintendo fan. I mean, making the purchase makes you a fan. Duh.

Kindofa stupid argument either way. It's like arguing who is less wrong. We all know that more sales, regardless of who they are being sold to, means more games. And we all know that more games...DUHN DUHN DUHN...equals more sales.

You people in your circular arguments need to check yourselves at the door. Before you are posting and replying to these types of things, ask yourself: is what I'm about to respond to really the point?

 

[Threi]

Again, when did I say that the Wii is selling EXCLUSIVELY to Nintendo fans. They've attracted new people just as MS has and just as I suspect Sony eventually will. But in order for a console to be supply constrained for 2-3 years it has to a profound mass market consumer product, and as well the Wii has been doing, I'm not ready to give it that title. And of course I'm only referring to the US market, as the Japanese market is a whole different bag of of cookies.

I still think most of the people looking for the Wii are the same 15-20 mill Nintendo fans that flock to each nintendo console not 40 year old women, not your average 18 year old casual.

If you didn't mean to generalize ("its not selling to ALL ninty fans")... then you shouldn't have generalized. ("im pretty sure its just selling to ninty fans")

 

[Nameless]

Wouldn't it be relevant though? I don't see this discussion being particularly limited to the US only. People invoke Territorial conditionals post facto to adjust their positions but that's a little disingenuous.

No because the Japanese market has been going in a profoundly different market than the US market has the past 10 years. In Japan I can totally see Wii being THE console of the mass market similar to the PS2.

 

[ksamedi]

Again, when did I say that the Wii is selling EXCLUSIVELY to Nintendo fans. They've attracted new people just as MS has and just as I suspect Sony eventually will. But in order for a console to be supply constrained for 2-3 years it has to a profound mass market consumer product, and as well the Wii has been doing, I'm not ready to give it that title. And of course I'm only referring to the US market, as the Japanese market is a whole different bag of of cookies.

How much more mass market could it be?

 

[Miniboss1232]

If you didn't mean to generalize ("its not selling to ALL ninty fans")... then you shouldn't have generalized. ("im pretty sure its just selling to ninty fans")

:lol

 

[Link]

I still think most of the people looking for the Wii are the same 15-20 mill Nintendo fans that flock to each nintendo console

Yeah, well, some people still believe the earth is flat, too.

 

[Nameless]

:lol

You know, the awesome thing about the english language is that a single word can profoundly change a sentence. And the fact that you took out the world "mostly" is the only reason you thought you had something to :lol about.

 

[PantherLotus]

No because the Japanese market has been going in a profoundly different market than the US market has the past 10 years. In Japan I can totally see Wii being THE console of the mass market similar to the PS2.

I think you're on the right track, but I'm not convinced that Japan is going in a "PROFOUNDLY DIFFERENT" market direction than the US, other than the popularity of the xbox brand. Go check some sales charts, brah. The US nearly mirrors JPN, step for step, but off by about 3-5 months.

Nothing has changed in that regard.