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IDC analyst: Wii supply won't meet demand until 2009
- Thread starter Alcibiades
- Start date
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Moses said:
Sometimes I really wish I was a moderator.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Ludicrous.
909er said:
Well yes, that's very true, but just working with what we know now, what is coming in the next 2 years that can steal the Wii's thunder? Nothing on PS3 or 360 can compare to the casual power of Wii Sports. Among the hardcore, sure, PS3 & 360 blow it out of the water with their upcoming games, but Wii will still be the Wii Sports machine.
Even if something comes that steals the Wii's thunder, the Wii can steal it right back with releases like Wii Health & Wii Music. There's a reason Nintendo spaces their releases out so oddly. Part of it is not wanting to release incomplete games, but another part of it is purely marketing strategy. It's why Super Paper Mario ended up being a Wii game and not a GC game.
richman555
Member
I think the Wii is a great console and all, but... 2009?? I just don't believe it will take that long to get Wii's in stock at stores on a consistent basis. I am no expert, but doesn't the fact that it was a simultaneous worldwide launch into all markets make meeting the demand much more difficult?
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Moses said:
I'm sorry. I couldn't get a good read on the type of poster you are, what with all the ".", "I lol'd", and other 10 word maximum posts you have.
Raging Spaniard
If they are Dutch, upright and breathing they are more racist than your favorite player
Wii demand will go down once the Wii Lite ( NOW WITH SHADERS!!) comes out
But for real, I guess well see, I don't see demand for the Wii in 09 being high if the software doesn't ramp up, and I don't see why it wouldn't (I say that because 1st year for consoles are usually slowish ... except for the DC, I suppose)
Saw a hot chick buy one at the grocery store though, that was kinda neat, she said she ran all the way there from work when she found out they had some, haha
But for real, I guess well see, I don't see demand for the Wii in 09 being high if the software doesn't ramp up, and I don't see why it wouldn't (I say that because 1st year for consoles are usually slowish ... except for the DC, I suppose)
Saw a hot chick buy one at the grocery store though, that was kinda neat, she said she ran all the way there from work when she found out they had some, haha
Craig Majaski
Member
One aspect of the Wii that I consistently see overlooked in threads such as this one is the Virtual Console (although I see someone above me did mention that his flatmates like to play it quite a bit). Seriously, I know people that have bought a Wii primarily for this feature alone. Remember, most "normal" people don't know a thing about emulation, and even many of those that do want to play the classics on a TV and with a controller. Once people find out the Wii can download $5 NES games they instantly want one.
It was genius to put each game in its own channel as well. The other day I turned on my Wii and my brother's friend walked through the room and saw Super Mario Bros. channel on the TV and asked what it was. I told her its the full game, and she flipped, "Can I play?" and so I hand her the remote and in 5 seconds she's playing a game that she hasn't played since she was like 5 with the biggest smile on her face. "I gotta get one of these!"
Don't underestimate the power of the Virtual Console.
It was genius to put each game in its own channel as well. The other day I turned on my Wii and my brother's friend walked through the room and saw Super Mario Bros. channel on the TV and asked what it was. I told her its the full game, and she flipped, "Can I play?" and so I hand her the remote and in 5 seconds she's playing a game that she hasn't played since she was like 5 with the biggest smile on her face. "I gotta get one of these!"
Don't underestimate the power of the Virtual Console.
Eteric Rice
Member
It's kind of funny, a few months ago the PS3 was going to own everyone. Now the Wii is going to be in demand until 2009?
I'm a fan of Nintendo, and even I think that's rediculous. The Wii is going to do amazingly well, but you'll find them in stores eventually.
I'm a fan of Nintendo, and even I think that's rediculous. The Wii is going to do amazingly well, but you'll find them in stores eventually.
justchris said:
I guess you could chalk it up to my absolute loathing of making absolute statements about the future, but I just cannot believe that it will last that long.
I honestly believe that there are so many x factors that could change the course of the Wii, that it's impossible to predict using simple models and comparisons to past products. There is no way of predicting what a major price drop to the 360 would do to the Wii. And there is no way to tell just how much graphics will be valued and to what degree consumers are willing to pay for those graphics in a few years (statements like "casuals don't care about graphics" should be thrown out immediately because they are completely baseless). And as far as stealing the thunder right back goes, no one knows how big a certain PS3/360 game might be. It's entirely possible for something unexpected to be the next best thing will come out, just as Wii Sports surprised everyone.
I'm not saying the Wii won't be the next big thing, I just think that it's too early to make statements about the future without knowing all the factors that affect it and its competition.
As for the original post -- discussing analyst articles on GAF is utterly pointless. There was no explanation in the summary of the article about how this analyst came to his conclusions...so why do we care? Without access to the analyst's data, models, and assumptions, how can anyone decide whether it's a good prediction or not?
Well, no one except for Alcibades, who apparently is taking this SWAG as validation for his own personal feelings about Wii shortages through 2008. I'll be waiting for the photos of your time machine, dude.
Personally, I'm inclined to agree with drohne on this one. ANY company which can't ramp up production to meet demand in less than 18 months is flat-out incompetent. Whatever hype benefit you might get from having a highly in demand product are more than outweighed by the money left in the pockets of potential purchasers since you couldn't produce the item they want. Does anyone have any actual information on why Nintendo has been having supply problems for the Wii and DS? The whole situation is completely bizarre...did they expect demand to be far less? That would be hilarious.
Well, no one except for Alcibades, who apparently is taking this SWAG as validation for his own personal feelings about Wii shortages through 2008. I'll be waiting for the photos of your time machine, dude.
Personally, I'm inclined to agree with drohne on this one. ANY company which can't ramp up production to meet demand in less than 18 months is flat-out incompetent. Whatever hype benefit you might get from having a highly in demand product are more than outweighed by the money left in the pockets of potential purchasers since you couldn't produce the item they want. Does anyone have any actual information on why Nintendo has been having supply problems for the Wii and DS? The whole situation is completely bizarre...did they expect demand to be far less? That would be hilarious.
Eteric Rice
Member
-jinx- said:
Sorry, I couldn't resist. :lol
HAL_Laboratory
Member
-jinx- said:
Well they would be arrogant assholes to assume Wii was gonna' sell 5 million in 4 months.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
bigswords said:
In all fairness, I don't entirely disagree with Bigswords. My Nintendo bias aside, I do think the 360 has a better lineup this year and I'm hard-pressed to pick 5 new Wii games to get by year's end.
In a perfect world we'd all be able to own every console and all of their games. But if I had to suggest only 1 console to a person at this very moment, I'd recommend the 360 to all but the most casual gamer or Nintendo die-hard.
But I really don't expect this to be the case a year from now. Besides, I'm not really thrilled with my 360 yet - aside from Live Arcade - and the system's been out about 18 months.
Back on topic though...
Regardless of the Wii's current library which I believe is somewhat lacking, I don't really expect demand to be satiated until well after the 2007 holiday season. 2009 might be far-fetched, but there's a lot of unannounced titles, word-of-mouth, and price drops to occur that will extend demand beyond the amazing levels that we're seeing now.
- edit -
Also...I'm with the party that believes if Nintendo can't meet demand by 2009 then they are screwing up. I expect there to be shortages around the holidays and random pitfalls of supply here and there...but to have a perpetual lack of console for over 2 years just screams of mismanagement.
-jinx- said:
Out of curiosity, if they increase production and still sell out, would they still be incompetent? And yes, i think they did expect the demand to be far less. What they were aiming for was a NES level of success, what they got was beyond playstation 2 success in terms of adoption rates.
Link
The Autumn Wind
This picture is older than dirt, but what the hell.Mr. Pachunga Chung said:
http://home.comcast.net/~styx630/wallunit.jpg
Uh oh. I went there.
Look, obviously a company has to weigh the additional costs of extra factories/worker versus not having enough product in the supply channels. I don't know what those numbers are for Nintendo, which is why I asked if anyone had any actual data on why they have been consistently producing under demand levels.Monk said:
But as a general statement, if there are not very good reasons why you aren't in a position to sell your product to a consumer who wants it NOW, then you're incompetent. Who knows if this demand will continue? Sell the consoles now!
HAL_Laboratory
Member
-jinx- said:
You're right, but assuming they're not meeting demand on purpose is just as baseless as claiming they're unable to adequately produce units. We'll just have to see what happens over the next couple years. Personally, I don't see why they wouldn't want the extra units (if they exist) in the hands of customers. This would not only help the tie ratio and garner more support, but it would increase their share in the market.
)Wii was expected to be less by virtually the entirely industry... indeed Nintendo outshipped their own expectations by 500k.-jinx- said:
DS is likely a component issue, probably the screens. If Wii can't ramp up accordingly, there's probably going to an outsourced component there to blame too.... though there's no immediate suspects like with DS.
Starchasing
Member
-jinx- said:
It all comes to to the price of ramping up production. Increasing production is more expensive than it seems. Sometimes you make more money not ramping up production and hoping people will wait for your product.
It's certainly possible...but what would that MEAN? That Nintendo talked a good game about how everyone was going to want a Wii, but didn't back it up with actual business activities?Tobor said:
Again -- does anyone (Kobun?) have any actual information about their production situation?