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[Doc Holliday]

Argh, how long has the Wii been out? And people are already calling it a mini game machine.

Of course the Wii is going to get mini games, most of the 3rd parties started working on games after e3. If the Wii doesn't have "real" games by winter '07 then we something to bitch about.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

It's about as logical as folks using a few months worth of launch-window sales to confidently predict the course of an entire generation.

Who's doing that? I mean, people are speculating...they'll always do that, but who's confidently proclaiming company X to be the winner or loser of this generation?

 

[Jokeropia]

I think I was fairly clear about what I meant. My personal experience with the system shapes my opinion of it, the fact that the console sells millions has no bearing on what I think.

Not what you think about it personally (i.e how much you like it), but it should definitely affect what you think about it's potential for success.

 

[Emerson]

Not necessarily. I think the fervor will die down at some point, probably sooner rather than later. I hardly think a console's initial success is indicative of it's overall market share in the end.

 

[Jokeropia]

There has actually never been a system that sold incredibly for a year or so only to then slow down and die. Generally, once a console gets going it snowballs and turns into a positive circle of larger installed base leading to more support leading to larger installed base etc. etc.

Right now, Wii is outselling it's closest competitor in Japan by a factor of nearly 4 to 1 or 60,000 systems a week. How long must this continue for the advantage to be too large?

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Not necessarily. I think the fervor will die down at some point, probably sooner rather than later. I hardly think a console's initial success is indicative of it's overall market share in the end.

But you agree that a console with success initially would be more likely to succeed than a console that initially tanks, right?

 

[Wonderdave]

So the basic question is " When willl you pay what you owe? ", when will the promises that each console made ramping up to their respective launches be realized in full?

I hate to cop out and just say Halo 3 for the 360 but it's all I see on the horizon set to deliver the full monty in next gen terms for the 360 user base. There are a lot of games that have shown a taste of what next gen fully realized will look like but fall oh so slightly short.

The PS3 is a bit harder to pin to a single game. The second half of '07 has three major new IPs Lair, Heavenly Sword and Uncharted in addition to MGS4 all of which are shaping up to be showcase games for HD and Cell in gaming. A week ago I would have stated any one of those could set the bar for next gen gameplay but then I had to see the Force Unleashed tech demo. More like physics unleashed and really good enviromentaly aware AI with procedural animation. So I'm going go go with late '07 for a variety of games and holiday '08 for OMGWFTness from physics and AI.

The Wii, I don't see it. Maybe Nintendo is playing it close to the vest but the game line up through early '08 is standard Nintendo fare. Which is good if you like Nintendo games but the killer waggle app isn't apparent. Wii excercise seems to me a very dark horse to pin the waggle revolution on and mini games aren't gonna cut it forever. Mario Galaxy, no matter how well it controls, is still a 3d platformer. New gameplay experiences is both a big and nebulous promise.

 

[Pokeylongo]

How many time are people going to go through this? Was it really the touch screen, dual screens or microphone that brought people to the DS? No, it was the games. If Wii provides that, Nintendo will stay on track.

 

[Emerson]

There has actually never been a system that sold incredibly for a year or so only to then slow down and die. Generally, once a console gets going it snowballs and turns into a positive circle of larger installed base leading to more support leading to larger installed base etc. etc.

Right now, Wii is outselling it's closest competitor in Japan by a factor of nearly 4 to 1 or 60,000 systems a week. How long must this continue for the advantage to be too large?

Yes, in the past, this has been true. But the Wii launch and the particular hype surrounding it were unprecedented. Using an old standard to apply to it makes no sense.

How many time are people going to go through this? If DS can become a long-lasting phenomenon against all odds and expectations, Wii shouldn't have any problem. It's capable of a lot more and is a lot fresher imo. Was it really the touch screen, dual screens or microphone that brought people to the DS? No, it was the games. If Wii provides that, Nintendo will stay on track.

Yes, it is the games. IMO, the Wii has not shown a support level nearly as good as the DS currently has.

 

[gutter_trash]

just do like i did:
buy a PS3 + buy a Wii = problem solved

 

[Unison]

Fun, like Pokemon, is a fad. Nintendo will learn this the hard way.

 

[chriskzoo]

FYI, Nintendo and Nintendo alone made the DS into what it is today. Third parties have jumped on for the ride now but it was Nintendo's games that turned it into a phenomenon.

It was really the re-design that made the DS take off. Had they never re-designed it, it would not be nearly as successful.

 

[DreD]

Yes, it is the games. IMO, the Wii has not shown a support level nearly as good as the DS currently has.

Sure, but support for the Wii is about the same level as it was for DS when it launched. In fact, I'd even say it's better. Don't forget that it took DS about a year to get the kind of support it is enjoying now and that, in contrast, Wii has been out for less than four months.

 

[Jokeropia]

It was really the re-design that made the DS take off. Had they never re-designed it, it would not be nearly as successful.

Actually, DS passed the PSP in weekly Japanese sales (and brought it to the PSPs level in the west) with the release of Nintendogs and Brain Training in spring 2005, and exploded into a phenomenon during Christmas 2005 with Brain Training 2 and Animal Crossing. DS Lite wasn't released until spring 2006. Not saying the Lite didn't help, but it was definitely not the catalyst.

 

[Pureauthor]

It was really the re-design that made the DS take off. Had they never re-designed it, it would not be nearly as successful.

Nah, that was only for America. And arguably it could be the combo of NSMB and Brain Training that did it.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

The problem with Wii-related threads is that both sides jump to extremes, either the Wii is the next DS, or it's going to fail completely...there is no middle ground.

Three months and counting of uber-positive sales are very nice, but it doesn't change the fact that the Wii is new, cheaper, and more readily available than most other consoles in and around launch time. The Wii is in new uncharted territory for a console, and it's appeal is different, so the old model of "once uber-popular, always uber-popular", may not apply...as well as many other "traditional console" trends.

That being said, I don't think the Wii is going anywhere. The "Wii is just a fad" argument is a pretty lame cop-out, and only serves to make people more defensive than they already are.

 

[Pureauthor]

The problem with Wii-related threads is that both sides jump to extremes, either the Wii is the next DS, or it's going to fail completely...there is no middle ground.

Three months and counting of uber-positive sales are very nice, but it doesn't change the fact that the Wii is new, cheaper, and more readily available than most other consoles in and around launch time. The Wii is in new uncharted territory for a console, and it's appeal is different, so the old model of "once uber-popular, always uber-popular", may not apply...as well as many other "traditional console" trends.

That being said, I don't think the Wii is going anywhere. The "Wii is just a fad" argument is a pretty lame cop-out, and only serves to make people more defensive than they already are.

Are we counting now as 'around launch time'? Because, if so, the bolded statement can be heavily disputed.

It could even be disputed on launch day itself. (Shades of 'I'll just walk into a store and pick one up', eh?)

 

[Pud]

I don't think Wii will be more successful than both of its predecessors...

 

[Boerseun]

I think the xbox 360 made next-gen stale, more than the wii fresh.

Ditto.

 

[Emerson]

o because the Wii launch (plus the three - and counting - following months) was so great, it is more likely to suddenly fail than consoles with not so good launches?

Quit putting words in my mouth. I never said the Wii is going to fail. I said that I don't like the system, and that "the fervor will die down at some point." This doesn't mean the Wii will fail. It just means that this huge level excitement will not be sustained much longer, and it's arguable that it has already died.

 

[Jokeropia]

Quit putting words in my mouth. I never said the Wii is going to fail. I said that I don't like the system, and that "the fervor will die down at some point." This doesn't mean the Wii will fail. It just means that this huge level excitement will not be sustained much longer, and it's arguable that it has already died.

You said "I hate to say it, but I honestly do see the Wii as a novelty item." This doesn't really sound like a success to me.

And if you think the fervor has died down already despite the Wii still selling out instantly everywhere in the world, it doesn't seem the "fervor" was very important to begin with.

 

[Emerson]

You said "I hate to say it, but I honestly do see the Wii as a novelty item." This doesn't really sound like a success to me.

My personal opinion of the Wii, that it's a novelty, has absolutely no bearing on the system's success at all.

And obviously the system is still selling out. I think that's a product of the overwhelming hype that used to be out there. Just because the hype died down doesn't mean people aren't still influenced by it.

I was referring to the fact that every person I personally know who owns a Wii is disappointed by it so far.

 

[Jokeropia]

My personal opinion of the Wii, that it's a novelty, has absolutely no bearing on the system's success at all.

That's what I said earlier, but you responded with "Not necessarily. I think the fervor will die down at some point, probably sooner rather than later. I hardly think a console's initial success is indicative of it's overall market share in the end."

If this was just a misunderstanding, then great.

I was referring to the fact that every person I personally know who owns a Wii is disappointed by it so far.

Well I can absolutely guarantee that you're in the very small minority. For example, it still has a 5/5 star ranking on Amazon.com after 440 consumer reviews. (Anecdotal but worth more than your limited experience.)

 

[cank stoochie]

just do like i did:
buy a PS3 + buy a Wii = problem solved

thats what everyone should do. these two are all you need for gaming nirvana

 

[Emerson]

Having looked over the Amazon feedback, I think most of them are a reflection of the initial impression of the system. I completely agree that the Wii is great fun, at first. For the first few weeks, it's a great thing, but the novelty wears off, in my experience. It's probably safe to say most of those reviews were placed when the owners first got it.

 

[6.8]

thats what everyone should do. these two are all you need for gaming nirvana

damn. I got it all wrong then.

*off to sell computer and 360*

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

I don't understand this whole "the novelty will wear off" mindset people have with the Wii. It's almost as if people believe it'll never have any new games announced for it.

I find that with almost every single system I've ever owned, the "novelty" wore off after a few weeks and it just became another system in my entertainment center. The novelty of dual analogs in Halo wore off, the novelty of rumble wore off, and I'm sure waggle won't be fresh forever, either - it'll just become standard.

I think the fact that so many regular gamers enjoy the Wii along with a lot of new players only increases the likelihood of its future success. At the very worst, it's a novel complement to "next-gen" gaming, at the best it's what the majority will prefer in this next/new generation.

Nintendo can't please everybody, but they can definitely please enough to capture a healthy share of hardware sales this generation. They would likely be far worse off if they were just another me-too console.

 

[ForzaItalia]

I really want to eventually buy a Wii but right now, much like the PS3, I don't see any games worth buying the console for...

 

[Jokeropia]

Having looked over the Amazon feedback, I think most of them are a reflection of the initial impression of the system. I completely agree that the Wii is great fun, at first. For the first few weeks, it's a great thing, but the novelty wears off, in my experience. It's probably safe to say most of those reviews were placed when the owners first got it.

:lol

This is just ridiculous. It's like you want to believe so much that people are disappointed with their Wiis that you'll invent any scenario where that is the case. I guess the fact that X360 and PS3 have lower consumer review scores means that people are more happy with them?

 

[Ra\/en]

yes, the other day i was holding the wiimote, and I just kept thinking of a ripe fresh tomato, and it just made me love the wii even more.

"wii, PLAY FRESH"

 

[Oblivion]

I don't think Mario Galaxy or SSBB (especially SSBB) really appeals any more to the masses than Mario Sunshine or Mario 64 before that. Besides number of consoles sold thie early in it's lifecycle, I'm hard pressed to find any evidence of how Nintendo is doing anything different than they did with the GCN. It's still going to be Mario/Metroid/Zelda every 6-9 months, only now were are treated to a plethora of mini-games in the interim.

Actually, my point was that Wii will simply do better than the GC because of those games. I didn't say those 2 will appeal to a wider variety of people.

I'm sure Nintendo would like something similar to happen in the console race, but I doubt the Wii will ever completely replace and/or push traditional consoles out of the market.

He said Wii would completely replace the other consoles? I think even if Wii wins this gen, there'll still be a market for PS3/360 (well, at least 360).

 

[Blablurn]

This so called freshness will disappear someday

 

[reggieandTFE]

I'm 24 and had the chance to play Rainbow Six Vegas on a HD projector with a 70 inch screen and DD sound and was bored to tears. I didn't have the patience or desire to play another game where I'm the good guy killing the bad guy. The graphics were amazing and the details intense after only playing Cube, PS2 and DS games, but they didn't help me enjoy the core shooter gameplay. My eight year old cousin got frustrated and yelled at me for dying so often while we were playing co-op and then proceeded to shoot me in the head.

This isn't to say that everything Nintendo is doing does excite me as I stopped about 30 hours into Twilight Princess because the urgency evident at the beginning of the game was gone, but I think there is a market that wants to have things simplified, at least in the presentation. For the majority of hard-core gamers this may be sacrilege, but some of the things Nintendo has been doing with the Wii and DS work for me.

 

[LM4sure]

freshness. that's a good word for it. that is the same reason the ds is doing amazingly well and the more powerful psp is failing miserably. i was just playing the phoenix wright game and having the best time ever!!!!

i still don't have a wii, but i'm sure it is similar. innovativeness to the max!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[HocusPocus]

Nintendo has a large fanbase that will gobble up around 3 to 4 million of anything with Nintendo stamped on it. That's what's happening now. If it continues to pull the casuals then it might just win, but I don't see that happening imho. Next Christmas will give us an early indication on who will win the console battle .

 

[Jokeropia]

Nintendo has a large fanbase that will gobble up around 3 to 4 million of anything with Nintendo stamped on it.

Boy, Nintendo sure could've used those people back when the GC was launched...

 

[Oblivion]

Nintendo has a large fanbase that will gobble up around 3 to 4 million of anything with Nintendo stamped on it.

True, all those Mario spinoff games, Fire Emblem, Baten Kaitos' sold multi-million cop...oh wait.

 

[thefro]

I really want to eventually buy a Wii but right now, much like the PS3, I don't see any games worth buying the console for...

If you already have a Cube, you're obviously a Nintendo fan anyway.